[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[gameoverman]

This virus is not going away,” he warned. “It’s not just going to take Labor Day off. It’s not going to take Halloween off. Or the holidays off.

That's the governor of California giving a press conference. I'm glad someone in charge is saying it, although he does say it in the most passive way possible. He's saying what the virus won't do, it won't take the holidays off, but it's a start.

[Paingod]

You'd think cruise ships would just go away.

I had a generally low opinion of them to begin with, then I heard how poorly the crew can be treated and I felt worse about them. After the first time I heard about one of the Norovirus outbreaks that turned one into an explosive floating island of misery, or the one where the waste system failed and excrement was just sloshing around in the passenger areas ... and now COVID.

Yeah. I'm probably never taking a cruise, and don't get people who do. I love being out on the water, but not enough to want to spend a week or two with hundreds of strangers.

[Daehawk]

Australia did a recent check on its home ordered COVID infected and found 1/3 of them were not home. So its brought in the military and will be handing out $5000 fines and more. Maybe it was just one area of AU.

[LawBeefaroni]

Australia did a recent check on its home ordered COVID infected and found 1/3 of them were not home. So its brought in the military and will be handing out $5000 fines and more. Maybe it was just one area of AU.

OO boots on the ground.

Spoiler:

News around the world: The city of Melbourne (in Victoria) is instituting stage 4 restrictions immediately, this is after a sharp increase of clusters and community transmission from the start of July. This has seen them go from nearly 0 to 11500 (total since start, 6322 active) cases in a month and doubling the death toll. They have also declared a state of disaster to give police and others more powers to enforce these.

Restrictions include:
From 6:00pm tonight, Melbourne residents can only shop within 5km.

Only one person from each household is allowed out to get essential goods or services.

No more than 1 hour of exercise, done within 5km of home.

There will be a curfew between 8:00pm and 5:00am every day unless you meet exemptions (if you're at work, giving care or getting care).

All students across the state will return to home-based learning. Childcare will be closed.

Mask Mandatory outside the home.

Are people there good about following these restrictions? I wish we were here.

Generally yes but we have our own covidiots. Recent door knock of those positive and supposed to be isolating found 1/4 not at home. Which is why it got so bad. We'll see how it goes for this stage

[Lorini]

I love cruises and cruising, but I won't be taking any in the near future. Nor the far future unless they do a much better job of sanitation and hygiene. Norwegian Cruises has now probably nuked cruising into orbit in any case, what a bunch of idiots.

[Daehawk]

[Jeff V]

Australia did a recent check on its home ordered COVID infected and found 1/3 of them were not home. So its brought in the military and will be handing out $5000 fines and more. Maybe it was just one area of AU.

OO boots on the ground.

Spoiler:

News around the world: The city of Melbourne (in Victoria) is instituting stage 4 restrictions immediately, this is after a sharp increase of clusters and community transmission from the start of July. This has seen them go from nearly 0 to 11500 (total since start, 6322 active) cases in a month and doubling the death toll. They have also declared a state of disaster to give police and others more powers to enforce these.

Restrictions include:
From 6:00pm tonight, Melbourne residents can only shop within 5km.

Only one person from each household is allowed out to get essential goods or services.

No more than 1 hour of exercise, done within 5km of home.

There will be a curfew between 8:00pm and 5:00am every day unless you meet exemptions (if you're at work, giving care or getting care).

All students across the state will return to home-based learning. Childcare will be closed.

Mask Mandatory outside the home.

Are people there good about following these restrictions? I wish we were here.

Generally yes but we have our own covidiots. Recent door knock of those positive and supposed to be isolating found 1/4 not at home. Which is why it got so bad. We'll see how it goes for this stage

Freelunch? How are things in Cairns and with your kids?

[msteelers]

I've had a great time going on cruises before, and would love to go on another one. At some point in the distant future. You could give me free tickets for a cruise and I wouldn't go now.

Same thing with Disney. My wife and I canceled our annual passes this past weekend. With Baby coming in October, we're pretty sure it would be May at the absolute earliest before we would be going again. And I think the odds of us feeling comfortable enough to go at that time are pretty much zero. I think the earliest realistic chance is NEXT October. It was sad (my wife cried) but Disney passes are way too expensive to pay for and not use them.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Sweden COVID-19 Death Rate Lower Than Spain, Italy and U.K., Despite Never Having Lockdown

While novel coronavirus cases have spiked across several parts of Europe, including Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Sweden—where a countrywide lockdown was never issued—continues to report a downward trend in new cases and new deaths.

As of Sunday, the latest death rate in Sweden (deaths per 100,000 people) was reported to be 56.40. The figure is lower than that reported in the U.K. (69.60), Spain (60.88) and Italy (58.16), according to the latest report Sunday by Johns Hopkins University.

The U.K. currently has the world's fourth highest death toll, while Spain and Italy (which have the sixth highest and eighth highest death tolls, respectively) were formerly Europe's two countries worst hit by the outbreak.

Sweden's latest case-fatality ratio (portion of deaths compared to total cases) was reported to be 7.1 percent. The figure is more than half the percentage reported in the U.K. (15.1 percent), half that of Italy and Belgium (each reporting 14.2 percent) and nearly half that of France (13.4 percent), according to Johns Hopkins University.

COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people in Sweden vs. Europe
Source: Johns Hopkins University (as of August 2)

• Sweden: 56.40
• Belgium: 86.19
• U.K.: 69.60
• Spain: 60.88
• Italy: 58.16

Sweden's seven-day rolling average of daily new deaths has been mostly declining since as far back as April 16, when the average was at 99. The average dropped to two on August 2, according to Worldometer.

COVID-19 case-fatality ratio of Sweden vs. Europe
Source: Johns Hopkins University (as of August 2)

• Sweden: 7.1 percent
• U.K.: 15.1 percent
• Belgium: 14.2 percent
• Italy: 14.2 percent
• France: 13.4 percent
• The Netherlands: 11.2 percent
• Spain: 9.9 percent

New infections per 100,000 people in Sweden reported in the past 14 days has dropped 46 percent, compared to that reported in the 14 days prior, according to the latest report Sunday from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Meanwhile, Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands have each reported a spike between 58 and 206 percent in new cases reported per 100,000 people in the past two weeks, compared to that reported 14 days prior, according to the WHO.

New cases in Sweden's Scandinavian neighbors (Denmark, Norway and Finland) have increased by as much as around three times the percentage drop in new cases seen in Sweden in the past two weeks, according to the WHO.

The seven-day rolling average of Sweden's daily new cases has been dropping consistently since June 29. Its daily case count has been mostly decreasing since June 24, when it reported 1,803 new infections, its largest single-day spike since the outbreak began, according to data compiled by Worldometer.

By contrast, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands have each been sharply increasing, starting from around July 6 to 14, according to Worldometer.

New COVID-19 cases in Sweden vs. Europe in past 14 days
Source: World Health Organization (as of August 2)

• Sweden: Down 46 percent
• The Netherlands: Up 205 percent
• Belgium: Up 150 percent
• Spain: Up 113 percent
• France: Up 72 percent
• Germany: Up 59 percent
• Finland: Up 160 percent
• Denmark: Up 81 percent
• Norway: Up 61 percent
• U.K.: Up three percent

The graphic below, provided by Statista, illustrates the average number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and the European Union.



While an official lockdown was never ordered in Sweden, the country aimed to develop "herd immunity," hoping that an increased number of people exposed to the virus would help to prevent a second wave of infections.

Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden's public health agency, noted last week: "We have cut down on movement in society quite a lot. We have compared how much we travel in Scandinavian countries, and the decrease in travel is the same in Sweden as in neighboring countries," in an interview with UnHerd.

"In many ways the voluntary measures we put in place in Sweden have been just as effective as complete lockdowns in other countries," he added.

There have been nearly 1.8 million (1,733, 550) confirmed cases in the European Union/European Economic Area and the U.K., according to the latest report Sunday by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

More than 18 million people globally have been infected since the virus was first reported in Wuhan, China, including over 4.6 million in the U.S. Over 10.6 million globally have reportedly recovered from infection, while over 689,400 have died, as of Monday, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

The graphic below, provided by Statista, illustrates countries with the most COVID-19 cases.



The graphics below, provided by Statista, illustrate the spread of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

[stessier]

Sweden defends its COVID strategy even as the mortality rate surpasses the U.S. and herd immunity remains elusive

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said he’s in no doubt his country’s highly controversial strategy for fighting Covid-19 remains appropriate.

Lofven, who has seen his popularity flag as Sweden’s decision not to impose a proper lockdown was followed by a spike in deaths, said he still thinks “the strategy is right, I’m completely convinced of that,” according to an interview with Aftonbladet.

The comments follow signs that, despite much higher rates of exposure to the coronavirus in Sweden than in many other places, immunity remains elusive. Meanwhile, Sweden’s mortality rate per 100,000 is higher than that in the U.S.

[Daehawk]

Herd immunity or die trying.

[ImLawBoy]

The corporate overlords just sent out a notice that we're looking at mid-2021 for returning to offices. (Obviously that doesn't apply to stores and techs and the like.)

[malchior]

Sweden defends its COVID strategy even as the mortality rate surpasses the U.S. and herd immunity remains elusive

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said he’s in no doubt his country’s highly controversial strategy for fighting Covid-19 remains appropriate.

Lofven, who has seen his popularity flag as Sweden’s decision not to impose a proper lockdown was followed by a spike in deaths, said he still thinks “the strategy is right, I’m completely convinced of that,” according to an interview with Aftonbladet.

The comments follow signs that, despite much higher rates of exposure to the coronavirus in Sweden than in many other places, immunity remains elusive. Meanwhile, Sweden’s mortality rate per 100,000 is higher than that in the U.S.

To be fair, our mortality rate is pretty much an illusion. We have no idea what it really is.

[coopasonic]

The corporate overlords just sent out a notice that we're looking at mid-2021 for returning to offices. (Obviously that doesn't apply to stores and techs and the like.)

Yeah our current direction is still "not before 1/1/2021" but I am def expecting it be well after that time that we return and little pressure to do so.

Let's all celebrate the holidays with big holiday family gatherings and head right back into the office!

I saved a bunch of money this summer on not sending the youngest to summer camp/daycare and we'll be skipping the after school care this year too (I mean for the week or so that schools are open before the first reported case).

[LawBeefaroni]

I've been back since May. This is too weird.

[ImLawBoy]

I'm going to need to get some kind of office chair for home, because this repurposed kitchen chair is not going to work for another 9 months or so,

[coopasonic]

I'm sitting in a terrible chair too, it's the cheapest office chair we could find at some point and in this case we got what we paid for. The terrible thing is I have an awesome DXRacer downstairs, but that's where the kids are sitting playing games all day (and starting next week, doing schoolwork) and I can't really have serious meetings or conduct interviews in that environment. Moving the chair back and forth would be even worse for my back.

[TheMix]

I'm going to need to get some kind of office chair for home, because this repurposed kitchen chair is not going to work for another 9 months or so,

Don't think you can go wrong with a Herman Miller Aeron. My only regret is that I spent a while using one of those "racing" chairs. My Aeron stopped working, so I stuck it in the garage. But I'm pretty sure that the racing chair didn't do my back any favors. Finally ordered a ~$30 replacement cylinder for the Aeron. And got rid of the racing chair. Though I'm thinking I need to replace the back support and maybe get new arms for the Aeron. One of these days.

Edit: I was REALLY tempted by the HM Embody. But finally decided that ~$30 to fix my old one was a better deal.

[Anonymous Bosch]

I'm going to need to get some kind of office chair for home, because this repurposed kitchen chair is not going to work for another 9 months or so,

Treat yourself to an appropriately-sized SecretLab gaming chair. They're all terrifically well-made, and include a 5-Year extended warranty. Their quality is absolutely top notch and their chairs are extraordinarily comfortable and packed with useful features:

[Torfish]

I'm still working from home. Corporate has no come back date announced. Only people in the buildings are manufacturing and distribution.

There's a high chance this will change my company's corporate life forever. For the majority of office people, working from home is a success and just as productive in our jobs. Of course, it's saving the company greatly. Once we are allowed back, it will be a hybrid. It's mind blowing to me, but it is real now.

[dbt1949]

Can you have the coronavirus and never show symptoms? I mean the whole life of the disease without and symptoms?

[Lorini]

Can you have the coronavirus and never show symptoms? I mean the whole life of the disease without and symptoms?

Yep. There are estimates that up to 40% of people who get it never have a symptom.

[LawBeefaroni]

That's part of the difficulty and why more testing is a good thing.

[gameoverman]

I'm more and more convinced that people in this country, particularly some leaders, are following the Swedish example deliberately. They WANT mass infections. It's the only way their decisions make any sense. The difference is the Swedes admit that's what they want and our leaders don't. A lot of our public has a similar fatalistic attitude. People act like since everyone will be infected sooner or later anyways, might as well live your life and deal with the virus if/when you get it. I think much of the reason they think that has to do with laziness. We could do something to squash the spread or we can do nothing and just let it happen. Which one of those options requires no effort?

[Jeff V]

Not to mention the Swedish are completely ignoring evidence that suggests getting it does not give you immunity to getting it again.

[Sudy]

So after the city of Toronto announced mandatory masks in apartment and condo common areas a couple of weeks ago, my apartment posted official Toronto signage. Only... I don't live in Toronto. We're in a separate municipality just to the north. Now, I'm completely in favour of masks. I just question why this policy was put into place so late in Toronto, and wasn't at all in my city. Better late than never, but daily new Ontario cases have been steady for weeks. In fact, there have been less than 100 each of the past five days. I still sometimes forget to put on my mask when I go down to check the mail or meet the Uber Eats delivery driver (we don't make contact... I have them leave it on a bench in the lobby). But I'd already started wearing it to the laundry room in case I run into anybody. Still stunned almost nobody else I've seen has been wearing one, including the mailman. I wore it all the way home from the pharmacy today as my hands were full, and damn it really does make breathing hard as a fat man. But I'd never not wear it indoors.

The pharmacy has a wall of five or six different brands of hand sanitizers (but I still can't find any wipes). They're all around 250 mL and $5-6 CAD ($3.75-4.50 USD). It seems expensive. Is this what it cost before Covid and the related shortage?

Making plans to see my sister and folks (60s) in a few weeks. It will be the first time I've seen them since January, with the exception of my grandfather's funeral in April. My wife still doesn't want to see them due to pandemic concerns. I don't know that I blame her, but conditions in Ontario have remained stable, and I'm still working from home so I don't come into contact with many people. If I have to return to the office/public transit before then I may have to re-evaluate. I'm concerned that with Labour Day and the beginning of the Ontario school year following, it may be now or never. My mother is convinced she had Covid earlier in the year and is still dealing with lingering effects. A co-worker who's been away for four months claims the same. I strongly doubt them, but how could I know? My mom (who has other health issues) won't seek medical attention to treat her ongoing issues, of course, because she fears getting infected (or re-infected) at medical facilities. Meanwhile, my dentist's office called a month ago to re-book my cleaning from March. I haven't called them back. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[stessier]

I got tested today. Last night before bed I noticed that I had an occasional urge to cough. This morning it was more insistent and the cough was undeniable. It wasn't frequent, but definitely there a few times/hour. In any other time, this would be a mild annoyance - I can still do my daily run. But these days, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be allowed into work on Monday. I got the deep nasal test - not something I recommend anyone volunteer for, but survivable. They said 2-4 days for results, so maybe Monday but for sure by Wednesday. If I don't hear by then, I have a number to call. I'm supposed to quarantine until then.

It was a public pop up event - free test through insurance. It was running 8-noon and I got there about 9:30. I was number 135. Took about 40 minutes from the time I arrived until I drove away.

If I am infected, I really wonder where I got it. I run around my neighborhood, but otherwise don't leave the house except for work. We all wear masks and stay 6' apart but most of the time I'm sitting at my desk in a bullpen with 3 other people in a very large room. I guess we'll see.

[YellowKing]

Our schools are staying closed for at least the first 9 weeks, and I'm perfectly fine with that. But this is the stuff that makes my blood boil.

My wife said a teacher came into her office the other day and was irate about having to return to the building to teach because, she had "planned to do an hour of video in the morning and then relax the rest of the day." My wife replied, "Well they pay you for 8 hours of instruction so that's exactly why they're wanting you in the building."

I know not all teachers are like that, but it infuriates me when my wife has had to be in the building meeting with the public nearly every day since this pandemic started, sometimes working 10-12 hour days. Meanwhile these teachers who didn't do jack shit for remote learning back in March/April and had the whole summer off are posting pics of hanging out at the beach and going to Disney World while they complain about having to go back to work.

[Blackhawk]

I live on one county. The kids go to school in another, and we do our shopping in a third. While the schools and stores have both been hit, the county we actually live in has been fairly mild.

In the past week we've gone from 2.x% positive rate to 8.5%. In the past week we've had as many cases as all of June and July combined.

[mori]

The corporate overlords just sent out a notice that we're looking at mid-2021 for returning to offices. (Obviously that doesn't apply to stores and techs and the like.)

Yeah our current direction is still "not before 1/1/2021" but I am def expecting it be well after that time that we return and little pressure to do so.

Let's all celebrate the holidays with big holiday family gatherings and head right back into the office!

I saved a bunch of money this summer on not sending the youngest to summer camp/daycare and we'll be skipping the after school care this year too (I mean for the week or so that schools are open before the first reported case).

All of my friends (that still have jobs) that use to work in an office environment have been told they will not be coming back to the office. Their companies are letting the leases expire on the offices. I hate to own office or commercial real estate now. I travel between cities for work and the amount of zero occupancy office buildings lining the freeways is staggering. You can't give that shit away. Another friend folded his business because of Covid but he is keeping his office space for when he starts his next venture. Why?! He must really love that space .

[Lorini]

The corporate overlords just sent out a notice that we're looking at mid-2021 for returning to offices. (Obviously that doesn't apply to stores and techs and the like.)

Yeah our current direction is still "not before 1/1/2021" but I am def expecting it be well after that time that we return and little pressure to do so.

Let's all celebrate the holidays with big holiday family gatherings and head right back into the office!

I saved a bunch of money this summer on not sending the youngest to summer camp/daycare and we'll be skipping the after school care this year too (I mean for the week or so that schools are open before the first reported case).

All of my friends (that still have jobs) that use to work in an office environment have been told they will not be coming back to the office. Their companies are letting the leases expire on the offices. I hate to own office or commercial real estate now. I travel between cities for work and the amount of zero occupancy office buildings lining the freeways is staggering. You can't give that shit away. Another friend folded his business because of Covid but he is keeping his office space for when he starts his next venture. Why?! He must really love that space .

Yep Los Angeles office space is tanking big time. Wonder what will happen to it? They aren't going to be able to fill it anytime soon if ever.

[Freyland]

Homeless shelters?

[Jiffy]

Homeless shelters?

They've been using some of the many near-empty hotels in Australia for that.

[malchior]

...evidence that suggests getting it does not give you immunity to getting it again.

The jury is definitely out on this.

[stessier]

I got tested today. Last night before bed I noticed that I had an occasional urge to cough. This morning it was more insistent and the cough was undeniable. It wasn't frequent, but definitely there a few times/hour. In any other time, this would be a mild annoyance - I can still do my daily run. But these days, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be allowed into work on Monday. I got the deep nasal test - not something I recommend anyone volunteer for, but survivable. They said 2-4 days for results, so maybe Monday but for sure by Wednesday. If I don't hear by then, I have a number to call. I'm supposed to quarantine until then.

It was a public pop up event - free test through insurance. It was running 8-noon and I got there about 9:30. I was number 135. Took about 40 minutes from the time I arrived until I drove away.

If I am infected, I really wonder where I got it. I run around my neighborhood, but otherwise don't leave the house except for work. We all wear masks and stay 6' apart but most of the time I'm sitting at my desk in a bullpen with 3 other people in a very large room. I guess we'll see.

Test results were negative. Phew. Must just be the standard summer cold.

[LordMortis]

Test results were negative. Phew. Must just be the standard summer cold.

My claritin and Singulair cocktail has always insulated me from allergies... Until this year, naturally. Allergies have been kicking my ass since May. Sore throats, coughing, sneezing, headaches, sinus craziness. They hypochondriac in me is going wild.

[RMC]

Test results were negative. Phew. Must just be the standard summer cold.

Glad to hear it.

[Daehawk]

They're talking on news now of just how terrible all the tests in the US are. One guy near Trump tested positive then the next time was negative then negative again. Our tests suck. I dont think Id trust any of them. And whats the point really if like me you're home? Got it or not theres no cure and nothing the hospitals will do unless you're mostly dead.

[RMC]

They're talking on news now of just how terrible all the tests in the US are. One guy near Trump tested positive then the next time was negative then negative again. Our tests suck. I dont think Id trust any of them. And whats the point really if like me you're home? Got it or not theres no cure and nothing the hospitals will do unless you're mostly dead.

If it is the story I think your talking about, that was the Governor of Ohio, DeWine. He tested positive with the quick test, and then has teseted negative with all the other tests after that. It was a shock at first, but it is easily explained, since the quick test will have false positives, but for a REAL positive, you have to have several positive tests in a row, and with the more coprehensive testing. Yes, I work in a hosptial system in Ohio, but I have no direct knowledge of Gov. DeWine's status, just what is written in the papers.

[stessier]

I got tested today. Last night before bed I noticed that I had an occasional urge to cough. This morning it was more insistent and the cough was undeniable. It wasn't frequent, but definitely there a few times/hour. In any other time, this would be a mild annoyance - I can still do my daily run. But these days, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be allowed into work on Monday. I got the deep nasal test - not something I recommend anyone volunteer for, but survivable. They said 2-4 days for results, so maybe Monday but for sure by Wednesday. If I don't hear by then, I have a number to call. I'm supposed to quarantine until then.

It was a public pop up event - free test through insurance. It was running 8-noon and I got there about 9:30. I was number 135. Took about 40 minutes from the time I arrived until I drove away.

If I am infected, I really wonder where I got it. I run around my neighborhood, but otherwise don't leave the house except for work. We all wear masks and stay 6' apart but most of the time I'm sitting at my desk in a bullpen with 3 other people in a very large room. I guess we'll see.

Test results were negative. Phew. Must just be the standard summer cold.

So I called work and I get to work from home for a week. It turns out a negative test isn't good enough - they say I'm sick (which, in fairness, I am although very mild) and they don't want me back in the building for 7 days from the onset of symptoms. So that's fun - I had a lot to do this week and didn't bring home my normal "WFH loadout." Bummer.