Kraken wrote: Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:47 pm
The official Sturgis attendance tally was 462,182. If 2% of attendees were infected -- a very conservative estimate -- then there were 9,243 carriers there. With no masks or social distancing, how many people did each of them infect over several days? Maybe Smoove knows the R0; I think 2.5 is a reasonable estimate. I'll wager the number of new cases is in the tens of thousands.
I'm confident entire careers (certainly PhD dissertations) are going to be made around trying to map out Sturgis and COVID-19.
It's one thing to try and figure out disease spread for a single point in time - like when there's a contaminated food source that goes out across America.
But something like this? Where you have hundreds of thousands of people in random contact with one another for a 14 day period of time, all concentrated in one town? I can't even get my mind around the potential scope.
It's no wonder that the FDA is in Dutch with the White House. Instead of fast-tracking miracle cures, they're approving even more tests, and as we all know the real problem is that there is too much testing already.
Instead of having an extra-long swab pushed way up your nose, you could soon just spit into a cup to get tested for COVID-19.
SalivaDirect, a cheap, saliva-based test for the disease developed by researchers at Yale University, received emergency authorization for use from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration earlier this week. The test was developed with the help of funding from the NBA, National Basketball Players Association and a grant from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
Rather than being commercialized and licensed to particular companies, it's being released as an "open source" protocol — a recipe that's freely available for other labs to follow using a variety of commercially available ingredients and equipment.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Trump, the Trump dictatorship, and all stuff in charge of anything related to Trump are only in it to make Trump money first then some scraps for themselves second. Its all money. Who gets what and what is done depends on the company doing it or making it and how well they lick Trumps harry arsehole.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
The Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention said 32 positive cases of coronavirus have been linked to the wedding ceremony that was held at a church in East Millinocket and the reception that followed at the Big Moose Inn in Millinocket.
One of those who tested positive, an adult female patient at Millinocket Regional Hospital, died on Friday.
Approximately 65 guests attended the Aug. 7 wedding ceremony at the Tri Town Baptist Church in East Millinocket and the reception at the Big Moose Inn in Millinocket, officials said.
Maine CDC officials said they delivered an imminent health hazard citation to the Big Moose Inn for exceeding the state’s indoor gathering limit of 50 individuals when it hosted the wedding reception. (Maine currently limits indoor gatherings to 50 people, and outdoor gatherings are limited to 100, with no more than five people per 1,000 square feet.)
The median age of confirmed positive cases linked to the wedding is 42 years old; those who have tested positive thus far range in age from 4 to 78 years old, Maine CDC officials said.
Convalescent plasma, which Trump is expected to announce as a major #Covid19 treatment breakthrough tonight, isn't a magic bullet, experts say. And issuing an Emergency Use Authorization under presidential pressure won't help @US_FDA's standing.
In case you wondering whether or not the FDA has been compromised, here's today's press release:
FDA Issues Emergency Use Authorization for Convalescent Plasma as Potential Promising COVID–19 Treatment, Another Achievement in Administration’s Fight Against Pandemic
During Trump's presser he answered a couple of softballs from Fox and OANN then cut it short when a real question about the plasma was next. Relevant to this thread, it ended with reporters yelling questions at Commissioner Hahn asking about political interference. He did not answer. He had previously given a statement on the EUA during the press conference praising Trump's leadership.
It should be noted that the FDA head got his stats wrong. It was a 35% reduction in mortality rate (from ~11% to ~8%). That does in no way mean that, as he said, it would save the lives of 35 people out of a 100. So either he’s grossly incompetent and doesn’t understand how stats work or he knowingly lied about the effectiveness of the treatment from that non-peer reviewed study.
WYFF wrote:GREENWOOD, S.C. —
More than 100 patients have tested positive in a COVID-19 outbreak at an upstate nursing home. NHC Greenwood is reporting 111 active coronavirus cases and 5 deaths.
According to their spokeswoman Casey Reese, the facility has managed to keep patients coronavirus-free, until this month when it went from 0 cases to 111 since the first week in August.
"As we continue to face this pandemic together, we find hope in those that have recovered as we process loss of those we loved with COVID," Reese said.
Reese said everyone got tested after a staff member had symptoms.
According to NHC's online dashboard Monday morning, 5 Greenwood residents have died with COVID. 50 employees have tested positive.
What do these places expect? Unless all patients and employees live on the premises and never leave then of course someone is going to get it and then the rest.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
Zarathud wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 10:12 amThis is impeachable and lawless. Full stop.
We've tried a full stop many times in the last four years. At this point we're really just pumping the breaks, but the lines were cut when the car left the driveway.
57 percent of Republicans think 176,000 coronavirus deaths (and counting) is acceptable. Holy shit.
Back in 2016 we were all told to stop calling Trump supporters "Deplorables" because it was insulting and crude to dehumanize them. The problem is that the word has few good alternatives that mean the same thing.
Black Lives Matter
2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
2025-01-20: The nightmares continue.
Paingod wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:37 pmBack in 2016 we were all told to stop calling Trump supporters "Deplorables" because it was insulting and crude to dehumanize them. The problem is that the word has few good alternatives that mean the same thing.
It was an appropriate, if not politically-savvy, term to use in 2016, and it's even more appropriate now.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
stessier wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:56 pmGiven the people I talk to at work, I would bet the people who answered that question don't believe it is really 176k.
The people I know who are like this don't care. To them it doesn't matter if the number is 25,000 or 200,000, the important thing to them is that life goes on as normal. They want things reopened, they want the government to stop giving people aid, they want the police to shut down all the riots(they do not recognize any legitimate protests). They are convinced that if sports stadiums were hosting crowds the rate of infection wouldn't be that bad. If theaters were open the movie audience would not see more than a small number of people get sick. That's why no matter how high the death toll gets, you won't suddenly see these people sit up and take notice. The ones who are concerned have already seen enough, the ones who are left unconcerned will never see enough to convince them otherwise.
It IS sort of like a cult. They are in the process of drinking the Kool-Aid.
F.D.A. ‘Grossly Misrepresented’ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say
At a news conference on Sunday announcing the emergency approval of blood plasma for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, President Trump and two of his top health officials cited the same statistic: that the treatment had reduced deaths by 35 percent.
Mr. Trump called it a “tremendous” number. His health and human services secretary, Alex M. Azar II, a former pharmaceutical executive, said, “I don’t want you to gloss over this number.” And Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said 35 out of 100 Covid-19 patients “would have been saved because of the administration of plasma.”
But scientists were taken aback by the way the administration framed this data, which appeared to have been calculated based on a small subgroup of hospitalized Covid-19 patients in a Mayo Clinic study: those who were under 80 years old, not on ventilators and received plasma known to contain high levels of virus-fighting antibodies within three days of diagnosis.
What’s more, many experts — including a scientist who worked on the Mayo Clinic study — were bewildered about where the statistic came from. The number was not mentioned in the official authorization letter issued by the agency, nor was it in a 17-page memo written by F.D.A. scientists. It was not in an analysis conducted by the Mayo Clinic that has been frequently cited by the administration.
“For the first time ever, I feel like official people in communications and people at the F.D.A. grossly misrepresented data about a therapy,” said Dr. Walid Gellad, who leads the Center for Pharmaceutical Policy and Prescribing at the University of Pittsburgh.
It is especially worrisome, he said, given concerns over how Mr. Trump has appeared to politicize the process of approving treatments and vaccines for the coronavirus.
We had our "back to school" Zoom meetings with the kid's teachers last night. While the district seems to have a really good plan in place, in the 30 minute call, there was not a single mention of masks, distancing, safety precautions...nothing.
Lots of mixed feelings about sending them out the door this morning for their first day.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
Once again, I guess this goes here? It's crossing a few different topics but it originates over COVID-19, so enjoy:
In Boise, the first day of Idaho's special legislative session erupted into chaos before it began. Dozens of unmasked protesters, some of them armed, shoved their way past state troopers to pack the gallery overlooking the state's House of Representatives.
The clash was a manifestation of the anger and frustration from a vocal minority of far-right Idahoans that has been compounding over the last several months as the state has navigated its reopening amid the pandemic.
Armed, unmasked protestors pushing through a police barricade and into a legislative session. I don't have any photos of what that might look like, but I guess you can likely imagine the reality based on the lack of police brutality/shootings included in the story.
We've got a real f-ing problem in this country (if you were unawares).
The disparity in law enforcement response based on skin color burns in your mind when you see images like that. I fully believe that if there were different skin tones in that crowd, we'd be seeing a story of bloodshed.
A different problem is that the hate groups are fully engaged in supporting police brutality and archaic practices. They want racial profiling and oppression of minorities. They have their backs, so to speak. They're the purple line just below the thin blue one... and the cops appreciate that and cut them slack because of it. If they didn't they'd have a different war on another front with no allies.
I get why they're doing what they're doing. I don't agree with it, but I get it.
I wish I knew how to stop it. The police don't just need reform at this point. They need to be completely disbanded and restructured again as a civil service agency instead of a paramilitary force.
Black Lives Matter
2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
2025-01-20: The nightmares continue.
Paingod wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:05 pm
The disparity in law enforcement response based on skin color burns in your mind when you see images like that. I fully believe that if there were different skin tones in that crowd, we'd be seeing a story of bloodshed.
A different problem is that the hate groups are fully engaged in supporting police brutality and archaic practices. They want racial profiling and oppression of minorities. They have their backs, so to speak. They're the purple line just below the thin blue one... and the cops appreciate that and cut them slack because of it. If they didn't they'd have a different war on another front with no allies.
I get why they're doing what they're doing. I don't agree with it, but I get it.
I wish I knew how to stop it. The police don't just need reform at this point. They need to be completely disbanded and restructured again as a civil service agency instead of a paramilitary force.
It's not just race. If you had Colion Noir and a bunch of other black guys who meet the acceptable socio-political standards of the far right, they'd be fine. OTOH, if you had a bunch of white millennials in black clothes with umbrellas, they'd get the shit pounded out of them. Granted if you had black guys in t-shirts and jeans they'd get shot.
Yes, it's about racism but it's not only about racism. We're still in the power grab stages. Allies are more important than ideals. Purification comes later. That's why we have to recognize it for what it is. They are dividing and conquering.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:27 amArmed, unmasked protestors pushing through a police barricade and into a legislative session. I don't have any photos of what that might look like, but I guess you can likely imagine the reality based on the lack of police brutality/shootings included in the story.
Maybe this is over-dramatized. The protesters probably asked the cops are they "ok" and the officer responded that he indeed too was "ok" and then the State Police officer said weakly, "Please stop. Don't go in..." [/s]
Paingod wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:05 pmA different problem is that the hate groups are fully engaged in supporting police brutality and archaic practices. They want racial profiling and oppression of minorities. They have their backs, so to speak. They're the purple line just below the thin blue one... and the cops appreciate that and cut them slack because of it. If they didn't they'd have a different war on another front with no allies.
This is tied to the above but the hate groups are embedded in the police. Some elements in the government were warning about it ten years ago. It's here now. We are seeing it over and over.
Speaking of places I'll never visit, more on Sturgis:
An analysis of anonymous cell phone data from Camber Systems, a firm that aggregates cell phone activity for health researchers, found that 61% of all the counties in the U.S. have been visited by someone who attended Sturgis, creating a travel hub that was comparable to a major U.S. city.
“Imagine trying to do contact tracing for the entire city of (Washington), D.C., but you also know that you don’t have any distancing, or the distancing is very, very limited, the masking is limited,” said Navin Vembar, who co-founded Camber Systems. “It all adds up to a very dangerous situation for people all over the place. Contact tracing becomes dramatically difficult.”
A total of 531 confirmed cases between students, faculty and staff were reported on the Tuscaloosa campus since classes resumed Aug. 19, UA announced Monday evening. The dashboard did not include how many were tested Aug. 19 through Aug. 23 or the rate of positive tests.
...
“Our challenge is not the students,” UA president Stuart Bell said Monday morning. “Our challenge is the virus and there’s a difference, folks. What we have to do is identify where does the virus thrive and where does the virus spread and how can we work together with our students, with our faculty and with our staff to make sure that we minimize those places, those incidents. It’s not student behavior, OK. It’s how do we have protocols so that we make it to where our students can be successful, and we can minimize the impact of the virus.”
Yeah, if only they could have somehow predicted that when you bring people together in a way that promotes indoor close contact, for an extended period of time, the virus was going to spread. How do you expect a University to stop that from happening?
A total of 531 confirmed cases between students, faculty and staff were reported on the Tuscaloosa campus since classes resumed Aug. 19, UA announced Monday evening. The dashboard did not include how many were tested Aug. 19 through Aug. 23 or the rate of positive tests.
...
“Our challenge is not the students,” UA president Stuart Bell said Monday morning. “Our challenge is the virus and there’s a difference, folks. What we have to do is identify where does the virus thrive and where does the virus spread and how can we work together with our students, with our faculty and with our staff to make sure that we minimize those places, those incidents. It’s not student behavior, OK. It’s how do we have protocols so that we make it to where our students can be successful, and we can minimize the impact of the virus.”
Yeah, if only they could have somehow predicted that when you bring people together in a way that promotes indoor close contact, for an extended period of time, the virus was going to spread. How do you expect a University to stop that from happening?
Much ado about nothing. They'll be fine once football starts up.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
