Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[stessier]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

[El Guapo]

I hope trump wins

Great first post on your first day!

We have our own Russian bot! It's so exciting.

[El Guapo]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

Probably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.

[stessier]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

Probably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.

I'm still holding out hope. Harrison is running on the "Graham isn't the Graham you remember" platform and it's pretty easy to show how he's changed over the last 4 years.

[El Guapo]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

Probably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.

I'm still holding out hope. Harrison is running on the "Graham isn't the Graham you remember" platform and it's pretty easy to show how he's changed over the last 4 years.

How much polling is there of the race? I suspect Harrison has a chance, but I'd be surprised if that chance was more than 10% - 20%. It's one of those situations where if Graham is in legit danger, then the GOP is probably getting blown out across the country.

[Defiant]

How much polling is there of the race? I suspect Harrison has a chance, but I'd be surprised if that chance was more than 10% - 20%. It's one of those situations where if Graham is in legit danger, then the GOP is probably getting blown out across the country.

South Carolina polls

There are several polls from about a month ago that give Graham a slight lead, but nothing more recent than three weeks ago.

[stessier]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

Probably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.

I'm still holding out hope. Harrison is running on the "Graham isn't the Graham you remember" platform and it's pretty easy to show how he's changed over the last 4 years.

How much polling is there of the race? I suspect Harrison has a chance, but I'd be surprised if that chance was more than 10% - 20%. It's one of those situations where if Graham is in legit danger, then the GOP is probably getting blown out across the country.

I'm just saying what I heard on the news. This is the link to 538's rundown. Looks like it's been pretty consistent, although there's not many.

[Scraper]

If Harrison wins in SC then the GOP is in bigger trouble than they realize. That would be the complete repudiation that Trumpism deserves. It means Trump would no doubt lose and the Senate would swing by more than the 3 needed for Dems to take over.

[Defiant]

If Harrison wins in SC then the GOP is in bigger trouble than they realize. That would be the complete repudiation that Trumpism deserves. It means Trump would no doubt lose and the Senate would swing by more than the 3 needed for Dems to take over.

No - they could always blame it on Graham (unless all or most of the Republican Senate candidates saw a 10+ point drop in performance this time from last time)

[El Guapo]

If Harrison wins in SC then the GOP is in bigger trouble than they realize. That would be the complete repudiation that Trumpism deserves. It means Trump would no doubt lose and the Senate would swing by more than the 3 needed for Dems to take over.

No - they could always blame it on Graham (unless all or most of the Republican Senate candidates saw a 10+ point drop in performance this time from last time)

If Graham loses then (unless some unique Graham scandal develops before the election) then a lot of other GOP candidates are losing too. Likely maybe they drop a couple of the races in KS, TX, and GA, for example. So the story would then be about the GOP, rather than about Graham.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

While I'm generally not optimistic about Harrison's chances (because SC), one cause of some slight optimism is in the last poll I saw it had Harrison and Graham tied, but Trump +8. To me that indicates that even some Trump supporters are sick of Lindsey. Still, it's SC so not getting my hopes up. The terrible voting system here (no early voting, absentee only with valid excuse) also work in Graham's favor.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Yep! Moved here in March. Came for the job, stayed for the Covid hotspot.

[Defiant]

Yeah, it was polling that showed Trump doing better than Graham that made me think that Graham is potentially more vulnerable than other Senators

[El Guapo]

Yeah, it was polling that showed Trump doing better than Graham that made me think that Graham is potentially more vulnerable than other Senators

Not a lot of polling, though. 538 is showing 6 polls since May, and half of those are partisan polls. Even if you average out what polls there are, it's probably at least a 3 or so point Graham lead. Not insurmountable, but enough for Graham to be a significant favorite.

[Dogstar]

According to Monmouth, the race tightens in my home state of Pennsylvania. This is down from his lead of +13 in July by Monmouth.

Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Among likely voters, the race is a tight 1 to 3 points, depending on the expected turnout level. This shift from Biden’s larger lead just over six weeks ago is due to declining support for the challenger among men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties.

[ImLawBoy]

I hope trump wins

Great first post on your first day!

We have our own Russian bot! It's so exciting.

Don't be so quick to cast aspersions. Its IP info shows it's from Poland, not Russia.

[Defiant]

According to Monmouth, the race tightens in my home state of Pennsylvania. This is down from his lead of +13 in July by Monmouth.

Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Among likely voters, the race is a tight 1 to 3 points, depending on the expected turnout level. This shift from Biden’s larger lead just over six weeks ago is due to declining support for the challenger among men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties.

538 shows Biden's lead dropping from about 7.5 to 4.7 in their polling average. Worrying, but not quite as scary as dropping nine points in six weeks would be.

[Carpet_pissr]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

85% Cynicism
15% It's SC

FWIW I sent an email to the campaign telling/asking I want to help however I can, excepting a large cash donation (wish I was in a position to do that though, I'm sure they also need that). What he REALLY needs is a black super star to step up, come here and do a few stops in a few core black communities across the state to get the vote out (*cough* either Obama will do*cough*). He's going to need a massive black turnout to win I think.

Honestly though, I think I'm a bit broken, politically (locally) after Henry "Foghorn" McMaster won a second term.

Do you ever listen to the SC politics podcast called The Lede? Those are are political junkies, and I heard them (admittedly this was quite a while ago) talk about how the right in SC has traditionally hated Graham. I guess because he was too soft, not contentious enough, seemed to actually have some friends across the aisle, etc. But then when he transformed into political "Mr. Hyde" and hardened up his stance a bit, apparently his polling shot up. Their bottom line was, even when he was not liked at all, he still would have no serious D competition here. With this newer, nastier Graham who now apparently loves Trump, I am sure he's increased his R votes.

[Carpet_pissr]

I hope trump wins

Great first post on your first day!

We have our own Russian bot! It's so exciting.

Ooooh! Can we keep him, Pa, please?!?!

[El Guapo]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

85% Cynicism
15% It's SC

FWIW I sent an email to the campaign telling/asking I want to help however I can, excepting a large cash donation (wish I was in a position to do that though, I'm sure they also need that). What he REALLY needs is a black super star to step up, come here and do a few stops in a few core black communities across the state to get the vote out (*cough* either Obama will do*cough*). He's going to need a massive black turnout to win I think.

Honestly though, I think I'm a bit broken, politically (locally) after Henry "Foghorn" McMaster won a second term.

Do you ever listen to the SC politics podcast called The Lede? Those are are political junkies, and I heard them (admittedly this was quite a while ago) talk about how the right in SC has traditionally hated Graham. I guess because he was too soft, not contentious enough, seemed to actually have some friends across the aisle, etc. But then when he transformed into political "Mr. Hyde" and hardened up his stance a bit, apparently his polling shot up. Their bottom line was, even when he was not liked at all, he still would have no serious D competition here. With this newer, nastier Graham who now apparently loves Trump, I am sure he's increased his R votes.

I think sending in Obama would be a bad idea - I think that would strongly activate Republican partisanship, and if Graham holds onto Republican voters then he wins.

But yeah, I think the obvious explanation for why Graham turned into Trump's lapdog is that he understood that that's what his voters want.

[LordMortis]

Don't be so quick to cast aspersions. Its IP VPN info shows it's from Poland, not Russia.

Or so I'd guess if you looked up who that IP is registered to. Also it's posst seem pretty well on topic to be a bot.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1110341632

This is maddening - especially how Trump is a narrow favorite to win in a scenario where he loses the popular vote by 2-3 points.

At least we are currently in 99%+ territory.

[Carpet_pissr]

To clarify, what do "points" equate to when talking about the popular vote? Also percentage?

[El Guapo]

To clarify, what do "points" equate to when talking about the popular vote?

Percentage points of the (national popular) vote. So a 3 point Biden win would be something like Biden 51% - Trump 48%, a 7 point win would be Biden 53% - Trump 46%, etc.

[stessier]

Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.

85% Cynicism
15% It's SC

FWIW I sent an email to the campaign telling/asking I want to help however I can, excepting a large cash donation (wish I was in a position to do that though, I'm sure they also need that). What he REALLY needs is a black super star to step up, come here and do a few stops in a few core black communities across the state to get the vote out (*cough* either Obama will do*cough*). He's going to need a massive black turnout to win I think.

Honestly though, I think I'm a bit broken, politically (locally) after Henry "Foghorn" McMaster won a second term.

Do you ever listen to the SC politics podcast called The Lede? Those are are political junkies, and I heard them (admittedly this was quite a while ago) talk about how the right in SC has traditionally hated Graham. I guess because he was too soft, not contentious enough, seemed to actually have some friends across the aisle, etc. But then when he transformed into political "Mr. Hyde" and hardened up his stance a bit, apparently his polling shot up. Their bottom line was, even when he was not liked at all, he still would have no serious D competition here. With this newer, nastier Graham who now apparently loves Trump, I am sure he's increased his R votes.

I haven't listened to The Lede. I do listen to Bakari Sellers (from The Ringer), so perhaps I'm swayed by his optimism. He thinks Harris as the VP will activate the Black communities which can't help but raise Harrison's chances. My biggest complaint with Harrison's campaign is the lack of details. He has general policy positions, but I'm curious about the how. Not that it matters, he's getting my vote regardless, but it would be nice if I could support him for good plans rather than just "not Graham."

[Isgrimnur]

I hope trump wins

Great first post on your first day!

We have our own Russian bot! It's so exciting.

Don't be so quick to cast aspersions. Its IP info shows it's from Poland, not Russia.

Borders move all the time...

[Defiant]

I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?

[stessier]

I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?

Source - Wikipedia (click to embiggen)

2000



2016



Summary of Electoral Vote Increase/Decrease

[El Guapo]

I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?

It's a reflection of the "tipping point" states (e.g., the states that would put Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral college majority threshold) having larger numbers of non-college educated white voters, which (especially in the Age of Trump) have migrated heavily towards Trump and the GOP.

You can also think about it this way - Biden's national vote lead (per 538) is currently +7.5. But his current lead in PA, FL, and AZ (likely tipping point states) is more like +4 to +4.5. That lead (which is a little over 3ish points lower) is really his 'true' lead, insofar as that's the lead that determines whether Biden is the next duly elected President under our rules.

So if Biden lost 5 points to Trump, he would still have a reasonable (though not ironclad) lead over Trump of ~ +2.5. But his 'lead' in the tipping point states is now probably slightly underwater (Trump lead of ~ 0.5ish). Hence Biden becomes a narrow underdog in the EC despite a clear but not decisive popular vote win.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 8889273345

This makes me feel a bit better - Biden's lead is down from its peak, but still large and holding after a ton of post-RNC polls were added.

[Defiant]

I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?

It's a reflection of the "tipping point" states (e.g., the states that would put Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral college majority threshold) having larger numbers of non-college educated white voters, which (especially in the Age of Trump) have migrated heavily towards Trump and the GOP.

You can also think about it this way - Biden's national vote lead (per 538) is currently +7.5. But his current lead in PA, FL, and AZ (likely tipping point states) is more like +4 to +4.5. That lead (which is a little over 3ish points lower) is really his 'true' lead, insofar as that's the lead that determines whether Biden is the next duly elected President under our rules.

So if Biden lost 5 points to Trump, he would still have a reasonable (though not ironclad) lead over Trump of ~ +2.5. But his 'lead' in the tipping point states is now probably slightly underwater (Trump lead of ~ 0.5ish). Hence Biden becomes a narrow underdog in the EC despite a clear but not decisive popular vote win.

I understand that logic, but it's simplistic and I don't think it plays that way in the real world. Candidates campaign differently in a tight race compared to a big lead (eg, more likely to focus on the tipping point states or states where they're barely underwater).

[El Guapo]

I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?

It's a reflection of the "tipping point" states (e.g., the states that would put Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral college majority threshold) having larger numbers of non-college educated white voters, which (especially in the Age of Trump) have migrated heavily towards Trump and the GOP.

You can also think about it this way - Biden's national vote lead (per 538) is currently +7.5. But his current lead in PA, FL, and AZ (likely tipping point states) is more like +4 to +4.5. That lead (which is a little over 3ish points lower) is really his 'true' lead, insofar as that's the lead that determines whether Biden is the next duly elected President under our rules.

So if Biden lost 5 points to Trump, he would still have a reasonable (though not ironclad) lead over Trump of ~ +2.5. But his 'lead' in the tipping point states is now probably slightly underwater (Trump lead of ~ 0.5ish). Hence Biden becomes a narrow underdog in the EC despite a clear but not decisive popular vote win.

I understand that logic, but it's simplistic and I don't think it plays that way in the real world. Candidates campaign differently in a tight race compared to a big lead (eg, more likely to focus on the tipping point states or states where they're barely underwater).

To be clear, I understand the chance of winning to reflect odds of a win if the election were held today with various hypothetical popular vote result margins.

In terms of assessing odds of winning this November, yeah presumably the campaigns are going to focus on the tipping point states, and that could impact the voting margins a few months from now. It's possible that the polling results in PA, FL, etc. could converge with the national polling results, which would change the percentages associated with any given national popular vote results (or conversely, they could further diverge).

I don't know that there's much reason to expect the popular vote / electoral college divide to close before this November, but it is possible.

[malchior]

I'm plopping this here because it is clearly electoral madness. Day after day we're going to be air bombed with these lawless decrees.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/ ... 3747990530

[Isgrimnur]

Wait until you see a lame duck presidency.

[Unagi]

lol.

I see this headline just now:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c-d-c ... d=msedgntp

how early?

like Nov 1, or Nov 2 ?

lol.

[Unagi]

Wait until you see a lame duck presidency.

it could seriously be the most amazing and telling thing we ever get to see.

I fear it and can't even begin to tell you how much I welcome it.

If ever a duck needed to be made lame, it's this fucking duck.

[Kurth]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1110341632

This is maddening - especially how Trump is a narrow favorite to win in a scenario where he loses the popular vote by 2-3 points.

At least we are currently in 99%+ territory.

What scares me most is not the scenario in which Trump loses the popular vote by 0-1 or 1-2 or even 2-3 points and still wins the electoral college. We've been there, done that. I think he lost the popular vote to Hilary in 2016 by around 2 points.

The terrifying thing to me is if he does even worse in the popular vote this time around and still wins another four years in office. The outrage was strong in 2016 based on the popular vs. electoral college disparity and that just involved a situation where Hilary won around 3M more votes than Trump did and still lost. What happens if we're in the 3-4 or 4-5 point scenario Silver sets out? Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.

I fear the country would explode.

[malchior]

What scares me most is not the scenario in which Trump loses the popular vote by 0-1 or 1-2 or even 2-3 points and still wins the electoral college. We've been there, done that. I think he lost the popular vote to Hilary in 2016 by around 2 points.

The terrifying thing to me is if he does even worse in the popular vote this time around and still wins another four years in office. The outrage was strong in 2016 based on the popular vs. electoral college disparity and that just involved a situation where Hilary won around 3M more votes than Trump did and still lost. What happens if we're in the 3-4 or 4-5 point scenario Silver sets out? Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.

I fear the country would explode.

I generally agree but I think even the 1st case - narrow popular vote win by Biden and EC win by Trump might be the last straw. Older folks might be normalized to that but we have a generation of young people who've grown up in one of the most polarized and economically unequal times in US history who are demanding change.

The big millennial cohort has struggled compared to their parents and they are really angry. They have less faith in Democracy than many of us older folks do. They've watched successive minority governments ignore the majority to loot the nation and prop up the ultra wealthy. They are well educated yet somehow poorer and the ones who didn't get educated are even poorer.

They and their younger brothers and sisters are generally the people out marching and fighting in the streets. The economic inequality is the tinder and Trump is recklessly throwing more wood and matches in an effort to win again. We have 8 weeks to go and it's getting uglier and uglier right now.

[Carpet_pissr]

Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.

I fear the country would explode.

As it should. In 2020 it’s a ridiculous, unfair, archaic system that was patched together to politically appease factions that don’t even exist anymore. Furthermore, one of the biggest arguments for implementing it, defense against a “populist president appealing directly to the people” has shown it to be ineffective.

If we could revive the original drafters and give them an executive summary of the data on US geography and population in 2016, and show them what happened in that election, the first thing they would say: Ohhhhhhh blazes! You have elected a most reprehensible addle-pated beard splitter! Also, dudes, WHY ARE YOU STILL USING THAT?!? It was only meant to be a temporary compromise!

[Scraper]

Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.

I fear the country would explode.

As it should. In 2020 it’s a ridiculous, unfair, archaic system that was patched together to politically appease factions that don’t even exist anymore. Furthermore, one of the biggest arguments for implementing it, defense against a “populist president appealing directly to the people” has shown it to be ineffective.

If we could revive the original drafters and give them an executive summary of the data on US geography and population in 2016, and show them what happened in that election, the first thing they would say: Ohhhhhhh blazes! You have elected a most reprehensible addle-pated beard splitter! Also, dudes, WHY ARE YOU STILL USING THAT?!? It was only meant to be a temporary compromise!

I don't know man. I mean I really can't see Alexander Hamilton saying "Dudes". Everything else is spot on.