Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Things in SC are going swimmingly:

https://twitter.com/SGTVNews4/status/13 ... 30242?s=20

Spoiler:

UST IN: The scene tonight at TLC Sports Bar near Williams-Brice Stadium. Students say they’re going here because it’s just outside of Columbia city limits, and doesn’t have strict COVID safety guidelines.

[LawBeefaroni]

Things in SC are going swimmingly:

https://twitter.com/SGTVNews4/status/13 ... 30242?s=20

Spoiler:

UST IN: The scene tonight at TLC Sports Bar near Williams-Brice Stadium. Students say they’re going here because it’s just outside of Columbia city limits, and doesn’t have strict COVID safety guidelines.

That is a really white crowd.

[YellowKing]

I shouldn't be surprised that the "dudebros" I hated in high school are the ones that are going to kill us all.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/sbstryker/status/13 ... 9798611970

[Daehawk]

Are we allowed to call Trump's 'Warp Speed' plan Warptarded yet?

[Alefroth]

Are we allowed to call Trump's 'Warp Speed' plan Warptarded yet?

Still?

[Smoove_B]

Did anything happen last month in the greater area of the Dakotas? Maybe when Trump gets off the golf course today, someone can ask his thoughts.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/13 ... 4188311553

The Dakotas now lead the US in number of new infections per million people.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Some Covid pr0n for Smoove:

https://twitter.com/SDSUCHEPS/status/13 ... 47074?s=20

Spoiler:

New @SDSUCHEPS
paper by Dhaval Dave @FriedsonAndrew @Drew_McNichols
& Joe Sabia ("Contagion Externality of Super-spreader") finds Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a local & nationwide spreader of COVID-19. Estimated public health cost: ~$12B

[Smoove_B]

Interesting. Hadn't seen that - I don't normally dip into health policy cost stuff. I'll be curious to see how this is received in the community at large.

[Freyland]

Interesting. Hadn't seen that - I don't normally dip into health policy cost stuff. I'll be curious to see how this is received in the community at large.

I'm expecting something between "12 isn't a big number" to glazed-eye indifference.

[Defiant]

Nineteen percent of the 1.4 million new coronavirus cases in the U.S. between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2 can be traced back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota, according to researchers from San Diego State University's Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/sturgis- ... uth-dakota

[LawBeefaroni]

All so the economy of a small, one-trick town could gorge on their once a year moneymaker. Why didn't we just pay them $50M to shut down for the week?

[Defiant]

All so the economy of a small, one-trick town could gorge on their once a year moneymaker. Why didn't we just pay them $50M to shut down for the week?

IIRC, a lot of the residents of the town *didn't* want it to go ahead.

[LawBeefaroni]

Also, a co-worker has a son that went back to college a few weeks ago. He just tested positive for COVID. University is paying for a hotel for 2 weeks for quarantine.

Also, both her kids are back on campus but have 100% remote classes. The general feel I get is that they're just trying to get the young generation infected and resistant away from co-morbid parents.

[LawBeefaroni]

All so the economy of a small, one-trick town could gorge on their once a year moneymaker. Why didn't we just pay them $50M to shut down for the week?

IIRC, a lot of the residents of the town *didn't* want it to go ahead.

My guess is that they don't own the business or live on the tax revenue or have much say in the matter.

[Little Raven]

China has it licked.

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens have received experimental COVID-19 vaccines under a government emergency scheme while reporting no cases of infection, a state-owned drug firm has claimed.

The two vaccine candidates developed by China National Biotec Group (CNBG) can also protect people from the coronavirus for as long as three years, Zhong Song, the company’s chief legal officer, told reporters on Monday.

It comes as China has been vaccinating ‘high-risk’ groups, including medics and border personnel, with the country’s potential coronavirus vaccines after launching the emergency plan in late July.

[Defiant]

They really shouldn't be licking it - I'm pretty sure that' isn't allowed when social distancing.

And as far as what's "claimed", I think I'll wait and see. (IIRC, they weren't all that honest when it came to case numbers at the start of this pandemic).

[stessier]

Also, pretty hard to claim 3 years of effectiveness when the disease is less than a year old.

[Max Peck]

"As long as 3 years" covers the range from 0 years to 3 years, so the claim seems legit.

[Unagi]

No, it implies that somewhere somehow they know of at least one single example of it lasting for at least 3 years.

(which they don’t)

Or, more likely - it can’t possibly last longer than 3 years. Not even if it did work.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

OR, China has known about the virus for years!

[$iljanus]

And this is why we have clinical trials to work these sorts of things out:

The pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca halted global trials of its coronavirus vaccine on Tuesday because of a serious and unexpected adverse reaction in a participant, the company said.

[Little Raven]

British companies clearly just aren't as advanced as Chinese ones.

[Zaxxon]

[Scraper]

The right is getting so crazy about their covid denial in Ohio that the Governor actually had to take time out of a press briefing yesterday to deny that he is setting up FEMA camps designed to yanks kids out of their school and away from their parents. Next level conspiracy BS.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/09/ ... camps.html

Fucking Facebook

[malchior]

The right is getting so crazy about their covid denial in Ohio that the Governor actually had to take time out of a press briefing yesterday to deny that he is setting up FEMA camps designed to yanks kids out of their school and away from their parents. Next level conspiracy BS.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/09/ ... camps.html

Fucking Facebook & Russia

Mortoned

[$iljanus]

The right is getting so crazy about their covid denial in Ohio that the Governor actually had to take time out of a press briefing yesterday to deny that he is setting up FEMA camps designed to yanks kids out of their school and away from their parents. Next level conspiracy BS.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/09/ ... camps.html

Fucking Facebook

Sounds like a plot line from Deus Ex.

[malchior]

The NY Times has the *best of the Conservative* columnists. The greatest. Meanwhile, I'm on a Skype at home. I haven't left pretty much since March and the other people are sitting in an office in the Hague. My European colleagues all went on vacations across Europe -- not without complication but still got on airplanes and traveled relatively normally -- but yeah the response has been average.

https://twitter.com/byDavidGardner/stat ... 2783276032

[LawBeefaroni]

I had a board Zoom call last night. The idea was pitched for our next meeting to be in-person. I was surprised by the number of members who said they weren't comfortable with it. A few posited that we are still somewhere in the early innings and it's crazy to try to start getting back to normal.

It was also noted that doing it just because we wanted to have a get-together could be a bad look.


I mean I thought I was somewhere on the overly safe side bit it looks like I'm way more in the center.

[malchior]

Fuck Trump. Fuck Woodward from hiding this until his book was ready.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 1895349250

[Smoove_B]

How many people is that now making money off selling books associated with bombshell-level information on Trump?

[Grifman]

Fuck Trump. Fuck Woodward from hiding this until his book was ready.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 1895349250

He knew and he lied about it - which those of us with any intelligence and common sense already knew. This is if anything impeachable. The president's most important duty is to keep Americans safe and Trump lied to the American people, endangered their lives, and definitely killed tens of thousands. And it's all on tape. Yet Republicans will continue to act as if nothing happened.

[stessier]

My daughter's high school was supposed to go back in person two days a week this week. The last test they had to pass was on Monday and required a rating of Medium or Low on the virus spread in the county for the third consecutive week. They failed and the clock has reset - at least three more weeks of virtual learning. My daughter was happy and stated "I'm sorry for all the people who got sick, but also thank you." I'm just happy she's still at home.

I don't see her going back in three weeks either. I suspect the spread will be Medium this week because a bunch of people didn't get tested over the weekend because no one was around. And then it will start to ramp up next week as all those who traveled or partied start getting sick.

As a reminder, the grading is on three metrics - Number of cases, change in number of cases (increasing = bad), and percent positive (<10 = Medium). Monday there were only 311 cases, which was lower than previous week, and 11.5%. Friday, though, there were 900 cases, which was higher and the positive rate was 19%.

[Smoove_B]

I don't see her going back in three weeks either. I suspect the spread will be Medium this week because a bunch of people didn't get tested over the weekend because no one was around. And then it will start to ramp up next week as all those who traveled or partied start getting sick.

Always look to what the county/state level response is. If things aren't changing - lowering gathering limits, removing indoor dining/business activity, not requiring masks at all times, curfew, etc... then there's no reason to believe the rates will go down. If state and local officials are just hoping it will burn out or don't believe they can actually do anything to lower Rt, then you're likely correct.

But yeah, there's likely going to be some type of of "Labor Day" bump observed nationwide. How big or widespread...we'll see. I'll expect the same at Thanksgiving and Xmas.

[stessier]

I don't see her going back in three weeks either. I suspect the spread will be Medium this week because a bunch of people didn't get tested over the weekend because no one was around. And then it will start to ramp up next week as all those who traveled or partied start getting sick.

Always look to what the county/state level response is. If things aren't changing - lowering gathering limits, removing indoor dining/business activity, not requiring masks at all times, curfew, etc... then there's no reason to believe the rates will go down. If state and local officials are just hoping it will burn out or don't believe they can actually do anything to lower Rt, then you're likely correct.

But yeah, there's likely going to be some type of of "Labor Day" bump observed nationwide. How big or widespread...we'll see. I'll expect the same at Thanksgiving and Xmas.

I'm in SC...our government response has been to stick it's head in the sand and open more things. Nothing is closed. There are some local mask ordinances, but the governor has repeatedly said it's a personal responsibility issue and he won't do anything statewide and will not close anything again.

Anecdotally, I see more people wearing masks. But my wife works at a toy store and they employ college kids. One of the kids came in last Friday, hung out for a few hours, and was hugging her friends. Tuesday, she tells the boss her suite mate tested positive - something she knew before the visit the previous week. Another of the college kids had a friend test positive and come how to stay with her parents rather than isolate at school - because it was a long weekend. I think it's going to be the college kids keeping our numbers up at this point.

[LordMortis]

I had a board Zoom call last night. The idea was pitched for our next meeting to be in-person. I was surprised by the number of members who said they weren't comfortable with it. A few posited that we are still somewhere in the early innings and it's crazy to try to start getting back to normal.

It was also noted that doing it just because we wanted to have a get-together could be a bad look.


I mean I thought I was somewhere on the overly safe side bit it looks like I'm way more in the center.

We had an all hands in MS Teams meeting last week that conceded the earliest we would redefine in office/essential personnel will be January. If we redefine then, opening the office will be done in phases. There is no ETA for when company sponsored F2F meetings will resume. This appears to be in alignment with our industry, so we are followers, not leaders in this path.

[Paingod]

I'm failing to understand how or why any business that has discovered they can operate well (or better) with remote meetings and workers is pushing to do anything at all that will end that. Remote work is a great perk for many jobs, and making it a standard will make a lot of business positions more desirable (as far as I can see it).

Where my wife works, for example, the company owner owns the building. He's had everyone working remotely for months now with a couple people popping in now and then just to keep the chairs warm for a change of pace. Why not just make his business remote, save on costs, and then rent the space to another business to increase his profit?

These kinds of changes aren't just good for some businesses - they're also good for the environment to cut back on travel and might be a great help for climate change.

[LordMortis]

I'm failing to understand how or why any business that has discovered they can operate well (or better) with remote meetings and workers is pushing to do anything at all that will end that. Remote work is a great perk for many jobs, and making it a standard will make a lot of business positions more desirable (as far as I can see it).

Where my wife works, for example, the company owner owns the building. He's had everyone working remotely for months now with a couple people popping in now and then just to keep the chairs warm for a change of pace. Why not just make his business remote, save on costs, and then rent the space to another business to increase his profit?

These kinds of changes aren't just good for some businesses - they're also good for the environment to cut back on travel and might be a great help for climate change.

In office means easier and higher availability to access resources, especially shared resourced, and "collaboration". It also means you are in an environment more suited to 9+ hours a day of "office" work, which includes everything from an office chair to not having your laundry, yardwork, spouse, or children be a distraction. It's give and take. Long term, I would hope this mess changes what we think we know when it comes to in office requirements, document handling, and F2F meeting though.

[malchior]

It comes down to management ability. Good management and leadership will weigh the pros/cons and probably find something in the middle long-term. Bad management will resume in office without change once they can and will bleed personnel. That said, some things really need to be in person. For example, I've been coordinating a table top exercise for the past few months that'll land tomorrow night. We will be doing it remotely. Some in the US, some in India, and some in Australia. The in-person interaction and ability to read people's engagement there is usually a big part of making that work. I just found out we won't have V/C either...it'll be interesting and potentially less effective.

[Smoove_B]

I'm in SC...our government response has been to stick it's head in the sand and open more things. Nothing is closed. There are some local mask ordinances, but the governor has repeatedly said it's a personal responsibility issue and he won't do anything statewide and will not close anything again.

Anecdotally, I see more people wearing masks. But my wife works at a toy store and they employ college kids. One of the kids came in last Friday, hung out for a few hours, and was hugging her friends. Tuesday, she tells the boss her suite mate tested positive - something she knew before the visit the previous week. Another of the college kids had a friend test positive and come how to stay with her parents rather than isolate at school - because it was a long weekend. I think it's going to be the college kids keeping our numbers up at this point.

I've been trying to keep up with the various states and what's happening broadly, but it's become overwhelming. Unless something hits the news (like the governor of Ohio needing to communicate that no, we're not setting up FEMA concentration camps to separate families), things are slipping off my radar.

What continues to be frustrating is that even in a state like NJ where we're doing (mostly) the right thing, the large vocal GOP base I'm surrounded by is trumpeting (yes) the fact that virus levels are low and people aren't getting sick - so we should be 100% fully open and back to doing what we were all used to in January. There is zero - and I mean zero - connection that the reason we're able to do what we're doing now is because of the policies enacted in late March and maintained throughout the spring and summer. Tweaking that arrangement puts us all at increased risk again.

College kids are absolutely going to be drivers - as they were during the summer months. I'm still not entirely sure what to expect with schools opening and whether or not kids will be helping drive rates. Over and over I keep seeing the major concerns are for kids in hybrid environments, particularly where they are being sent to aftercare facilities because the parents are working f/t and unable to deal with random half days. The concern is always additions to that "contact budget" I mentioned earlier and as that circle grows larger, risk invariably increases.

So we wait. And we watch.

EDIT: NJ had 11 days of Rt transmission increase and on day 12 it held steady. I think we're about to see how we're all doing here in Jerz with the recent relaxation of regulations + school openings.