Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

[El Guapo]

I learned a few things from the Senate model:

(1) the name of the Republican candidate for senate in Massachusetts (Kevin O'Connor). I've seen zero evidence of his candidacy in Massachusetts. You're not going to believe this, but the model gives him less than a 1% chance of beating Markey;
(2) How significant a lead Democrats have in NC, CO, and AZ, where the model gives them a 62%, 68%, and 78% chance of winning, respectively;
(3) Pleased to see that Democrats have a 41% chance right now in IA. Far from a lock, but a much better chance than I would've expected going into this year.

[coopasonic]

(1) the name of the Republican candidate for senate in Massachusetts (Kevin O'Connor). I've seen zero evidence of his candidacy in Massachusetts. You're not going to believe this, but the model gives him less than a 1% chance of beating Markey;

So you are saying there's a chance!

[stessier]

I'm not sure I believe there is an 85% chance that Graham wins in SC. He sure isn't acting like he has an 85% chance in terms of ads and mailings that I'm getting.

[El Guapo]

I'm not sure I believe there is an 85% chance that Graham wins in SC. He sure isn't acting like he has an 85% chance in terms of ads and mailings that I'm getting.

I haven't read much about the model, but I'm assuming that the percentage chance is a mix of the polling (tending to show a small to modest Graham lead) and the overall partisanship of SC. Doesn't seem like there are that many polls, so I'm guessing that the partisanship is a big part of the model percentage.

Also, FWIW the model also has "classic" and "lite" versions. I believe the deluxe (which is most pessimistic for Harrison in SC) is the 'default' model, and incorporates fundamentals (I think including partisanship) and expert election views. The 'lite' which I believe is polls only, gives Harrison a 26% chance.

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/sta ... 4519574528

Also, with the model giving Bullock a 32% chance of winning in MT, seems crazy that there's a spitting chance of both of Montana's senators being Democrats as of 2021.

[El Guapo]

One other thing with Kelly absolutely crushing McSally in AZ, it's kind of funny that McSally is going to be responsible for Republicans losing *both* of AZ's senate seats.

[Isgrimnur]

I learned a few things from the Senate model:

(1) the name of the Republican candidate for senate in Massachusetts (Kevin O'Connor). I've seen zero evidence of his candidacy in Massachusetts. You're not going to believe this, but the model gives him less than a 1% chance of beating Markey;

Spoiler:

[El Guapo]

Hey, I will absolutely take an 11% chance of a senate pickup in Texas.

[Smoove_B]

How's it going in VA?

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/statu ... 9085209602

Massive line of voters in Fairfax, Virginia, on the FIRST DAY of in-person early voting. Some voters say they showed up because they lost faith in USPS to deliver ballots. Officials tell CNN they've never seen anything like this on Day One.

[El Guapo]

I don't know how many days of early voting VA has, but it seems like day 3 or 4 would probably be the sweet spot.

[Jaymann]

Clinton (who won by 3M votes) got no where near this level of commitment.

[Carpet_pissr]

Clinton (who won by 3M votes) got no where near this level of commitment.

Referring to the long lines? Do we know those are mostly D voters?

[$iljanus]

So Gov Baker (MA) has decided to insert himself in Maine's Senate race and has endorsed Susan Collins. Since the Senate needs to be purged of as many Republican enablers as possible I will remember his choice when his turn comes up. He didn't need to get involved.

[Jaymann]

Clinton (who won by 3M votes) got no where near this level of commitment.

Referring to the long lines? Do we know those are mostly D voters?

Not guaranteed, but likely. And if they are wearing a mask probably about 90% Dem.

[Smoove_B]

So Gov Baker (MA) has decided to insert himself in Maine's Senate race and has endorsed Susan Collins.

That seems like a strange endorsement to make. What am I missing here? Are things that grim up north that governors from other states are backing party-line elections in others?

[$iljanus]

So Gov Baker (MA) has decided to insert himself in Maine's Senate race and has endorsed Susan Collins.

That seems like a strange endorsement to make. What am I missing here? Are things that grim up north that governors from other states are backing party-line elections in others?

So Hogan (MD), another Republican governor from a predominantly Dem state also backed Collins. I don’t know if the RNC asked them to do this for some huge favor to be redeemed later, such as a large infusion to their election year war chest or support for a possible Presidential run in the future. Baker is fairly popular here and I believe Hogan is as well in his state.

I don’t think we’d send Baker to the Senate but a Presidential run puts him on the national stage and he doesn’t necessarily need to win his home state for that run.

[YellowKing]

I got burned in early voting back in 2008 when I stood in line for 2 1/2 hours to vote . A couple of days later you could just waltz in and out in 5 minutes.

Also, looking back, I'm trying to figure out where the hell my head was at back then. I voted for Obama in 2008 when he was running against McCain (someone who I was a big fan of at the time), and then voted against him in 2012 when he was running against Romney (who I could care less about). I think 2008 I was swayed by wanting to contribute to history by voting for the first black President, and I really didn't like Palin. By the time 2012 rolled around, I had gone back to loathing the Democrat-held Congress and was reverting back to my conservative tendencies.

I think it's why I'm always scared of "cancel culture." I would hate to be judged on the things I believed when I was in my teens and early 20s, because they are quite literally the exact opposite of the things I believe today.

[LordMortis]

Clinton (who won by 3M votes) got no where near this level of commitment.

Referring to the long lines? Do we know those are mostly D voters?

They're wearing masks and I don't see the an abundance of red baseball caps, so there's that.

[Kraken]

So Gov Baker (MA) has decided to insert himself in Maine's Senate race and has endorsed Susan Collins.

That seems like a strange endorsement to make. What am I missing here? Are things that grim up north that governors from other states are backing party-line elections in others?

So Hogan (MD), another Republican governor from a predominantly Dem state also backed Collins. I don’t know if the RNC asked them to do this for some huge favor to be redeemed later, such as a large infusion to their election year war chest or support for a possible Presidential run in the future. Baker is fairly popular here and I believe Hogan is as well in his state.

I don’t think we’d send Baker to the Senate but a Presidential run puts him on the national stage and he doesn’t necessarily need to win his home state for that run.

"Fairly popular" is an understatement. Baker has -- or had -- >80% approval *among Massachusetts Democrats* precisely because he's done a competent job while floating above the partisan fray. This is going to be a bombshell here.

[Skinypupy]

I just sort of assumed MA had a Democrat Governor.

I was extremely confused as to why he would come out in support of a vulnerable GOP Senator.

[Kraken]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal. We Massholes like to elect R governors as a check on our D legislature, but they have to be the not-evil kind of R. Remember that Mitt Romney was gov. of MA, and he fit that mold until he got bit by the presidential bug; Obamacare derived from Romneycare. Baker is one of that dying breed. Maybe he sees a kindred soul in Collins.

[$iljanus]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal. We Massholes like to elect R governors as a check on our D legislature, but they have to be the not-evil kind of R. Remember that Mitt Romney was gov. of MA, and he fit that mold until he got bit by the presidential bug; Obamacare derived from Romneycare. Baker is one of that dying breed. Maybe he sees a kindred soul in Collins.

You are being very charitable. Then again, I've only lived in MA for around 5 years. Before that it was MD where the other Republican governor threw his support to Collins.

I think he could have just kept quiet.

[Kraken]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal. We Massholes like to elect R governors as a check on our D legislature, but they have to be the not-evil kind of R. Remember that Mitt Romney was gov. of MA, and he fit that mold until he got bit by the presidential bug; Obamacare derived from Romneycare. Baker is one of that dying breed. Maybe he sees a kindred soul in Collins.

You are being very charitable. Then again, I've only lived in MA for around 5 years. Before that it was MD where the other Republican governor threw his support to Collins.

I think he could have just kept quiet.

Well, I'm among the horde that likes Baker, but I'm adopting a Collins expression of concern now. Not cool, Charlie. Not cool.

[$iljanus]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal. We Massholes like to elect R governors as a check on our D legislature, but they have to be the not-evil kind of R. Remember that Mitt Romney was gov. of MA, and he fit that mold until he got bit by the presidential bug; Obamacare derived from Romneycare. Baker is one of that dying breed. Maybe he sees a kindred soul in Collins.

You are being very charitable. Then again, I've only lived in MA for around 5 years. Before that it was MD where the other Republican governor threw his support to Collins.

I think he could have just kept quiet.

Well, I'm among the horde that likes Baker, but I'm adopting a Collins expression of concern now. Not cool, Charlie. Not cool.

Do you think he has presidential aspirations? That's the easiest thing that comes to mind with his support of a moderate Republican senator. If his support sways the vote he could be an attractive candidate for an RNC trying to look moderate in 2024.

Too bad the Republicans need to be exiled for a while to remove their taint from government.

[gbasden]

I think it's why I'm always scared of "cancel culture." I would hate to be judged on the things I believed when I was in my teens and early 20s, because they are quite literally the exact opposite of the things I believe today.

I'm with you on that - I really couldn't care less what someone thought a decade ago. I care about what they think now.

OTOH, I'm sick to death of when someone says something racist or bigoted or stupid, gets called on it and loses their cushy customer facing job and then blames cancel culture. They deserve every second of discomfort for their current day horrible beliefs.

[Kraken]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal. We Massholes like to elect R governors as a check on our D legislature, but they have to be the not-evil kind of R. Remember that Mitt Romney was gov. of MA, and he fit that mold until he got bit by the presidential bug; Obamacare derived from Romneycare. Baker is one of that dying breed. Maybe he sees a kindred soul in Collins.

You are being very charitable. Then again, I've only lived in MA for around 5 years. Before that it was MD where the other Republican governor threw his support to Collins.

I think he could have just kept quiet.

Well, I'm among the horde that likes Baker, but I'm adopting a Collins expression of concern now. Not cool, Charlie. Not cool.

Do you think he has presidential aspirations? That's the easiest thing that comes to mind with his support of a moderate Republican senator. If his support sways the vote he could be an attractive candidate for an RNC trying to look moderate in 2024.

Too bad the Republicans need to be exiled for a while to remove their taint from government.

He's never signaled any aspirations to national office. If he does have ambitions, he's been keeping them to himself.

In light of this endorsement, the Globe thinks it's time for him to stop avoiding the elephant in the WH: Waiting for Charlie.

Like a wary turtle emerging from his shell, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker is slowly sticking his neck out into the swamp of 2020′s ugly politics. The Republican governor endorsed Representative Richie Neal in his Democratic primary this summer, and a political action committee aligned with the governor endorsed a slew of local Democrats and Republicans in the primaries. On Friday, he came to the aid of Susan Collins in the general election, appearing in a TV ad for the embattled Republican US senator from Maine.

The governor certainly has every right to endorse whomever he chooses. But the more he gets involved in down-ballot races, including even ones outside of Massachusetts, the more conspicuous his silence in that other race on the ballot becomes. Yes, that would be the presidential race, in which the governor remains as shell-bound as ever, yet to divulge his plans.

There’s no question that Baker has opposed, and occasionally even snapped at, President Trump, who has taken a wrecking ball to Baker’s ideal of well-managed government. But as in 2016, he has not taken the plunge of endorsing Trump’s opponent, Joe Biden. There is a pragmatic case for remaining silent: Massachusetts relies on the federal government in various ways, and will for at least the next few months, so why antagonize a thin-skinned and demonstrably vindictive president like Trump? And what difference would it make, considering that Massachusetts is all but certain to back Biden anyway?

But there’s an argument to be made for influencing Republicans in Maine — into whose elections Baker now apparently has no problem wading, and for whom he seems to believe his endorsement is meaningful. The state divides its electoral votes by congressional district, and Trump won one of them in 2016. But that’s not the only way in which Baker’s voice could be meaningful in presidential politics. There’s also New Hampshire, one of the few places in which Baker’s brand of centrist New England Republicanism still has a toehold, and which Trump nearly won in 2016. Nationally, there are still a smattering of old-style Republicans and groups like the Lincoln Project, who are attempting to create a “permission structure” for those voters to back Biden instead. The support of a respectable, cloth-coat GOP governor would sure help.

Of course, endorsing Biden would certainly make life more difficult for Baker if he sought a third term on the GOP line. But the fact that Baker does have something to lose politically is also what would make his voice much more meaningful than those of former Republican officeholders who have only rediscovered their vertebrae after leaving office.

Ever since Trump’s election, Baker has faced constant calls to join protests, endorse Democrats, and denounce the president in ever-stronger terms. The governor, though, has preferred to bask in the warmth of his sky-high approval ratings. When it looked like a principled desire to avoid getting dragged into national politics, it was a lot easier to defend Baker’s choice to stay on the sidelines. Now that Baker has shown he has no compunctions about endorsing Democrats or candidates outside Massachusetts, his silence on the presidential election is getting louder and louder. The governor has shown he represents a better version of the Republican party than Donald Trump. Now would be the time for him to issue an endorsement that solidifies it and points to a better path for both his party and country.

[Exodor]

Holy shit

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/130 ... 60609?s=20

[geezer]

Clinton (who won by 3M votes) got no where near this level of commitment.

Referring to the long lines? Do we know those are mostly D voters?

NOVA is center-left world hq.

[Kurth]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal. We Massholes like to elect R governors as a check on our D legislature, but they have to be the not-evil kind of R. Remember that Mitt Romney was gov. of MA, and he fit that mold until he got bit by the presidential bug; Obamacare derived from Romneycare. Baker is one of that dying breed. Maybe he sees a kindred soul in Collins.

You are being very charitable. Then again, I've only lived in MA for around 5 years. Before that it was MD where the other Republican governor threw his support to Collins.

I think he could have just kept quiet.

Well, I'm among the horde that likes Baker, but I'm adopting a Collins expression of concern now. Not cool, Charlie. Not cool.

Do you think he has presidential aspirations? That's the easiest thing that comes to mind with his support of a moderate Republican senator. If his support sways the vote he could be an attractive candidate for an RNC trying to look moderate in 2024.

Too bad the Republicans need to be exiled for a while to remove their taint from government.

I'm of two minds here. On the one hand, I'm in the "WTF, Charlie?" mode. On the other, if this is a signal that Baker might be interested in a run for President, I'm pretty psyched. We desperately need Baker (or someone of his ilk) to rescue the GOP.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/statu ... 8045084679

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/stat ... 5614231552

[El Guapo]

That is scary. The good news, as far as I can tell, is this:

(1) The PA Supreme Court decisions also knocked the Green Party off the ballot in PA (as they were in WI) due to technical issues;
(2) The PA Supreme Court also extended voting dates;
(3) in some ways the 'naked ballots' issue can be fixed / minimized by the Biden campaign and voting groups running a massive public education group to make people aware that they need to put their ballots into the secrecy envelope first. And honestly, getting people's attention on an issue that prominently features the word 'naked' seems pretty doable.

I also wonder whether there's something on this that the governor / state electoral issues can help mitigate before the election.

[Defiant]

Bloomberg pays fines for 32,000 felons in Florida so they can vote

[Jaymann]

Bloomberg pays fines for 32,000 felons in Florida so they can vote

Nice, putting his money where his mouth is.

[Carpet_pissr]

Yep. That’s fantastic.

[Paingod]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

I think this fits with Maine as well. I can't explain at all how LePage managed to get elected to a second term. People took to calling him a mini-Trump a few years ago before he got the boot. He got 37.6% of the vote the first time (best out of 5) and was re-elected with 48.2%. I think this probably won't happen again for a while as we've switched to Ranked Choice voting. 37% won't win you shit. You've got to hit at least 51%.

With Maine, you get in and kind of stay in unless you do something to anger the people you're supposed to represent. Name recognition goes a long way. That's how Collins made it this far, and I expect that's how Gideon will remain for a few terms.

[Kraken]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

I think this fits with Maine as well. I can't explain at all how LePage managed to get elected to a second term. People took to calling him a mini-Trump a few years ago before he got the boot. He got 37.6% of the vote the first time (best out of 5) and was re-elected with 48.2%. I think this probably won't happen again for a while as we've switched to Ranked Choice voting. 37% won't win you shit. You've got to hit at least 51%.

With Maine, you get in and kind of stay in unless you do something to anger the people you're supposed to represent. Name recognition goes a long way. That's how Collins made it this far, and I expect that's how Gideon will remain for a few terms.

MA has a referendum on ranked choice voting for state and local races on Nov. 3. It faces strong headwinds. I support it, but doubt it will pass.

[El Guapo]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

I think this fits with Maine as well. I can't explain at all how LePage managed to get elected to a second term. People took to calling him a mini-Trump a few years ago before he got the boot. He got 37.6% of the vote the first time (best out of 5) and was re-elected with 48.2%. I think this probably won't happen again for a while as we've switched to Ranked Choice voting. 37% won't win you shit. You've got to hit at least 51%.

With Maine, you get in and kind of stay in unless you do something to anger the people you're supposed to represent. Name recognition goes a long way. That's how Collins made it this far, and I expect that's how Gideon will remain for a few terms.

MA has a referendum on ranked choice voting for state and local races on Nov. 3. It faces strong headwinds. I support it, but doubt it will pass.

Is there recent polling on it? The last thing I saw showed an even split on the initiative (though with a lot undecided - for and against were each 36%).

[coopasonic]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

I think this fits with Maine as well. I can't explain at all how LePage managed to get elected to a second term. People took to calling him a mini-Trump a few years ago before he got the boot. He got 37.6% of the vote the first time (best out of 5) and was re-elected with 48.2%. I think this probably won't happen again for a while as we've switched to Ranked Choice voting. 37% won't win you shit. You've got to hit at least 51%.

With Maine, you get in and kind of stay in unless you do something to anger the people you're supposed to represent. Name recognition goes a long way. That's how Collins made it this far, and I expect that's how Gideon will remain for a few terms.

MA has a referendum on ranked choice voting for state and local races on Nov. 3. It faces strong headwinds. I support it, but doubt it will pass.

Is there recent polling on it? The last thing I saw showed an even split on the initiative (though with a lot undecided - for and against were each 36%).

Are you seeing negative ads on it? Isn't ranked choice voting good for pretty much everyone (except established party politicians)?

[Kraken]

In days of yore, there was such a thing as a New England Republican: fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

I think this fits with Maine as well. I can't explain at all how LePage managed to get elected to a second term. People took to calling him a mini-Trump a few years ago before he got the boot. He got 37.6% of the vote the first time (best out of 5) and was re-elected with 48.2%. I think this probably won't happen again for a while as we've switched to Ranked Choice voting. 37% won't win you shit. You've got to hit at least 51%.

With Maine, you get in and kind of stay in unless you do something to anger the people you're supposed to represent. Name recognition goes a long way. That's how Collins made it this far, and I expect that's how Gideon will remain for a few terms.

MA has a referendum on ranked choice voting for state and local races on Nov. 3. It faces strong headwinds. I support it, but doubt it will pass.

Is there recent polling on it? The last thing I saw showed an even split on the initiative (though with a lot undecided - for and against were each 36%).

Are you seeing negative ads on it? Isn't ranked choice voting good for pretty much everyone (except established party politicians)?

I haven't seen anything about it at all, but I don't watch enough TV to see ads if they exist.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

So SC passed its "State of Emergency" absentee voting bill, meaning that anyone can now vote absentee without needing an excuse. However, I'm a bit confused because the website list "in person" absentee voting as an option (steps listed in spoiler). Does that just mean early voting, which wasn't an option in SC before? If so, that's pretty nice and I am going to try to take advantage of that.

Spoiler:

In Person

Step 1: Visit your county voter registration office or extension office.

Begins Monday, October 5.
Ends 5:00 p.m., Monday, November 2.

Step 2: Complete an application.

Step 3. Cast your ballot.