Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:27 pm

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/stat ... 0045071361

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:41 pm

LordMortis wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:25 pm Out of state money for the GOP flood so much money into the Michigan GOP election every cycle it's unreal. The worst was when the money was flooding to fight for Gerrymandering and against mail in voting (and cried foul when out of state money started coming in to fight against gerrymandering and for the no question absentee ballots). I don't agree with so much out of state influence but we are so past broken at this point, I'm tempted to just start throwing money in to Kentucky politics.

BTW, I watched a good documentary called Slay the Dragon a few days ago about the fight against gerrymandering in MI (and elsewhere).

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:13 pm

No idea how reliable MorningConsult is, but FWIW, this was in a Newsweek article:

Graham, who has held his seat since 2003, is facing a tight race this fall. The two candidates have been polling neck and neck. As of Tuesday, Graham was roughly tied with Harrison, 46 percent to 45 percent, but Harrison holds a 70-point lead among Black South Carolina voters, according to a Morning Consult poll.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:45 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:13 pm No idea how reliable MorningConsult is, but FWIW, this was in a Newsweek article:

Graham, who has held his seat since 2003, is facing a tight race this fall. The two candidates have been polling neck and neck. As of Tuesday, Graham was roughly tied with Harrison, 46 percent to 45 percent, but Harrison holds a 70-point lead among Black South Carolina voters, according to a Morning Consult poll.

538 rates them a B/C based on analysis of 12 polls.

FWIW he is about to get a high profile spot in the SCOTUS shit show which may have impact on the race.

Edit: Here he is melting down again. That said, my wife just donated to Harrison -- because I am not allowed to.

I love me a good Streisand moment - especially when Hannity unironically calls her out by name.

https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1 ... 5614304257

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:04 am

Good lord man, have some dignity. Getting cut off by a two bit “journalist” as you’re pathetically sniveling for money? Does he have children? Loved ones that might see that? Jesus.

Also how many times does he appear on Hannity in a week before they start blocking him? Even shitstain Hannity looked disgusted.

Lincoln project needs to do another commercial with this trio of sad appearances.

Most importantly I think that maudlin whining will go over horribly with GOP’ers here who view him like R’s view Ted Cruz in Texas.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:13 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:04 amGood lord man, have some dignity.

He is acting like someone who's life is on the line. This is really weird stuff. Maybe he is just having a breakdown. He has transformed into a pathetic creature and maybe it is really dawning on him.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:52 am

Less than three weeks before early voting begins in Texas, a U.S. district judge has blocked the state from eliminating straight-ticket voting as an option for people who go to the polls this November.

In a ruling issued late Friday, U.S. District Judge Marina Garcia Marmolejo cited the coronavirus pandemic, saying the elimination of the voting practice would “cause irreparable injury” to voters “by creating mass lines at the polls and increasing the amount of time voters are exposed to COVID-19.”

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/25 ... ing-texas/

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:12 pm

I would have thought straight-ticket voting favored the GOP.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:00 pm

Alefroth wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:12 pm I would have thought straight-ticket voting favored the GOP.

It is a balance - it is probably neutral in these polarized times but throughput favors the Democrats.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:57 pm

Mailed my ballot in today. I was dead set on voting in person due to all the mail shenanigans, but a co-worker was showing me the ballot tracking system NC is using now and it was pretty impressive - email and text alerts with statuses the whole way until it's counted. While I didn't really have any major concerns about heading into the germy masses to cast a ballot, it's nicer to now not even have to consider it.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:51 pm

Stupid candidate - was leading Tillis in NC and may have just thrown away the election:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/polit ... 91610.html

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:27 am

At least he couldn’t have picked a better news cycle for that to come out...

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:41 pm

I think it's time to seriously consider what will happen if Trump checks out (permanently) before the election. He is definitely in the high risk population. It would seem to be too late to nominate a new candidate and print ballots. Do Trump's votes go automatically to Pence? That makes no sense. Could Pence still be elected VP? Even in death Trump will find a way to fuck up the election.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:36 pm

Jaymann wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:41 pm I think it's time to seriously consider what will happen if Trump checks out (permanently) before the election. He is definitely in the high risk population. It would seem to be too late to nominate a new candidate and print ballots. Do Trump's votes go automatically to Pence? That makes no sense. Could Pence still be elected VP? Even in death Trump will find a way to fuck up the election.

I don't believe that Trump's votes go to Pence as Pence isn't the candidate. It would be different if the election were already done and Trump bucked the kicket, as that's when succession kicks in. I believe the RNC has to nominate a new candidate (possibly Pence), and after that it gets complicated. The date for submitting candidates to the states has passed, so they wouldn't be able to get their new candidate on the ballot, at which point we're in a morass of RNC politics, state laws, and electors.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:40 pm

It also gets messy if they can't change the name of their candidate, Trump dies, and is then elected. And it gets messy if Trump dies and the RNC can't agree on a candidate in time for the election.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:41 pm

I had quietly dropped the "trump won't be the nominee" position that I pushed for at least a year, but now I'm thinking I might have been right after all.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:47 pm

Seriously, 2020 wouldn't be accepted as a manuscript for being too over-the-top. That many chaotic events with that kind of timing couldn't ever happen in real life!

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:50 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:36 pm I believe the RNC has to nominate a new candidate (possibly Pence), and after that it gets complicated.

I can't imagine them picking anyone other than Pence at this point. Seriously, what other high profile Republican could they put in the slot at a last minutes notice? (sit down, Ted Cruz, no one wants you).

Especially since 1+ million have already voted.

Unless Trump named someone to replace him right before he died, I don't see the RNC thinking about anyone else.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:55 pm

Defiant wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:50 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:36 pm I believe the RNC has to nominate a new candidate (possibly Pence), and after that it gets complicated.
I can't imagine them picking anyone other than Pence at this point. Seriously, what other high profile Republican could they put in the slot at a last minutes notice? (sit down, Ted Cruz, no one wants you).

Especially since 1+ million have already voted.

Unless Trump named someone to replace him right before he died, I don't see the RNC thinking about anyone else.

QED -Don Jr.

They won’t even have to change the ballots.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:17 pm

Apparently Graham may have had a bad night against Harrison in an hour long debate.

Here is a clip of Harrison going after him about SCOTUS and another towards the end where he pilloried him about his lack of results.

https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/status/1 ... 3499094016

https://twitter.com/harrisonjaime/statu ... 3824588800

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:41 pm

DC is just a town of seat fillers and check pickeruppers. That person from each state was supposed to represent all the people in a state..at least the majority of wants and needs. They dont listen to a single person unless its a lobbyist offering them presents and money. They simply vote however they want to vote or are paid enough to vote. That one person controls all the people's lives instead of the people controlling that person.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sat Oct 03, 2020 11:54 pm

I don't know if he is going to win but from the video excerpts I saw, Jamie Harrison brought his A game and destroyed Lindsay Graham.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:53 pm

Too soon to start thinking about 2022?

Sen. Pat Toomey has decided not to run for reelection or for governor of Pennsylvania in 2022, according to two people familiar with his plans, a surprise decision by the Republican with significant implications for the state’s next elections.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/penns ... 01004.html

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:30 pm

Let’s GO! I’m starting to see a Big Blue Wave forming in the distance.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:22 pm

Defiant wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:53 pm Too soon to start thinking about 2022?

Sen. Pat Toomey has decided not to run for reelection or for governor of Pennsylvania in 2022, according to two people familiar with his plans, a surprise decision by the Republican with significant implications for the state’s next elections.
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/penns ... 01004.html

I've been searching the PA reporters I follow, and no one seems to know what this is about. If there's a scandal coming, it isn't obvious.

The weird thing is the timing of the announcement. If Toomey weren't such a weasel and a toady, it might signal an intention not to go along with McConnell's push on the Supreme Court nomination. But I really have a hard time seeing that.

Toomey also has a long history of changing his mind at the last minute, making prediction more difficult. If he is really leaving, though, it causes problems for the PA GOP, which (as people keep pointing out today) has a "shallow bench."

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:57 pm

People are more focused on the presidency, but Democrats have been gaining in Senate polls as well:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 0483643394

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:13 am

538's House Forecast is up. Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to keep the House, and the average likelihood is that they gain a ~3.7 seats.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:49 am

El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:57 pm People are more focused on the presidency, but Democrats have been gaining in Senate polls as well:

[...]

Plus, in the 2022 senate races the Dems will be defending 12 almost entirely safe seats while Republicans will be defending 20 seats including PA, NC, FL, OH, and WI.

This year's senate special-election terms in AZ and GA will also be ending.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:07 pm

The Hill

Republican Sen. Susan Collins went after Sara Gideon, her Democratic challenger in Maine's increasingly hostile Senate race, and accused the state House Speaker of “defaming my reputation and attacking my integrity.”

“She will say or do anything to try to win,” Collins said of her opponent during an interview with Politico released Wednesday. “This race is built on a foundation of falsehoods. And trying to convince the people of Maine that somehow I am no longer the same person.”

The longtime GOP senator knocked Gideon, who was born and raised in Rhode Island, as being an outsider.

“I grew up in Caribou, I’ve lived in Bangor for 26 years. My family’s been in Maine for generations. She’s been in Maine for about 15 years and lives in Freeport,” Collins said. “That's a big difference in our knowledge of the state.”
...
“My personal presidential preference, I do not believe is an important factor in this race. I’m not saying that the left is not trying to tie me to Donald Trump … they clearly are,” Collins told the news outlet, adding that “my independence is the same as it’s always been.”

Her independence:

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:10 pm

I did see there was a group in Maine posting these and she's not amused:

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:33 pm

What's the deal with Freeport? Is that like where all the liberal elitists live in Maine, or something?

I did enjoy the "she's only lived here for 15 years" part. What's the carpetbagger line in Maine - is it you have to have been there 20 years?

Brian · Post by **Brian** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:44 pm

El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:33 pmWhat's the carpetbagger line in Maine - is it you have to have been there 20 years?

I believe it's "you had to be born here and your parents and grandparents had to be born here as well."

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:40 pm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/13 ... 7766927363

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:47 pm

El Guapo wrote:What's the deal with Freeport? Is that like where all the liberal elitists live in Maine, or something?

I did enjoy the "she's only lived here for 15 years" part. What's the carpetbagger line in Maine - is it you have to have been there 20 years?

Freeport and everything in Southern Maine is for tourists and rich massholes.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:27 am

Damn, she may not win, but Amy McGrath just destroyed McConnell in their debate on CSPAN.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:39 am

Grifman wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:27 am Damn, she will not win, but Amy McGrath just destroyed McConnell in their debate on CSPAN.

FTFY

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:08 am

Grifman wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:27 am Damn, she may not win, but Amy McGrath just destroyed McConnell in their debate on CSPAN.

I've recently learned that McConnell will not ever take part in a debate that is moderated by a woman.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:34 am

Unagi wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:08 am
Grifman wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:27 am Damn, she may not win, but Amy McGrath just destroyed McConnell in their debate on CSPAN.
I've recently learned that McConnell will not ever take part in a debate that is moderated by a woman.

What's his justification for that? Not sure how that can be justified by anything other than classical misogyny.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:41 am

El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:34 am
Unagi wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:08 am
Grifman wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:27 am Damn, she may not win, but Amy McGrath just destroyed McConnell in their debate on CSPAN.
I've recently learned that McConnell will not ever take part in a debate that is moderated by a woman.
What's his justification for that? Not sure how that can be justified by anything other than classical misogyny.

I don't think he declares it in such a clear way, but it's been about 25 years for him without a female moderator... this was the first thing I found - but the other day my wife read to me something similar:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 99089.html

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:07 am

Scoop20906 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:47 pm
El Guapo wrote:What's the deal with Freeport? Is that like where all the liberal elitists live in Maine, or something?

I did enjoy the "she's only lived here for 15 years" part. What's the carpetbagger line in Maine - is it you have to have been there 20 years?
Freeport and everything in Southern Maine is for tourists and rich massholes.

I wouldn't go that far. Some Maine Geography from a lifer of the state:

Tourists and MassHoles filter up along 95, 295, and Route 1. They're looking for hunting and recreational activities - but they end up everywhere in the summer and fall, really. Some want good views, some want isolation, some want recreation. Maine is "Vacationland" after all.

Freeport is more of a commerce hub with LL Bean as an anchor that started the trend a century ago, and that's grown the surrounding area into a prosperous, well-to-do area - including Falmouth and Yarmouth (to a lesser degree). We have very few of those in Maine, so they get some snide remarks if you're trying to appeal to the yearning masses. It's a "First Stop" for a lot of tourists on their way further up north. It's like Maine's Gift Shop.

Cape Elizabeth would be the "rich, snotty" area in Maine. I've had some work out that way and found it to be an attractive area with really nice homes. Good food, decent people. Well maintained, well educated.

Portland is the largest population center, and thus the culture center of the state; the surrounding towns are benefitted by proximity. Westbrook, right outside Portland, is run down and underprivileged with low-cost housing in abundance. Gorham is a fairly good area, but mostly a heavily trafficked area people pass through to get home from Portland.

Lewiston/Auburn is basically the armpit of Maine. Always has been. I once worked at a distillery there and could almost taste the despair in the air - or maybe it was the rotting potatoes. I don't know. I didn't want to know. I left as quickly as I could.

I've heard that Ogunquit is a nice place, often associated with a robust gay community. I don't know how accurate that is. I've never been.

Old Orchard Beach is an ocean-centric town with one appeal - the beaches. It's got a decent pier and some attractions, but mostly a big, long, smooth beach that tourists seem to flock to. Locals know a lot of better, quieter beaches. I've been twice just to try and get what the fuss was about. Both times it was off-season and half of the place was closed. I could see where it might feel akin to a permanent carnival in the summer.

Augusta, State Capital, is a sad place with little opportunity. It reminds me of a Westbrook+ ... which isn't great. I've worked here for a few years now. You can spy the capital building from many places in the area. It's a monolith. There's a Target and good access to Interstate 95 if you feel the need to escape.

Waterville & Bangor are about as far north as civilization goes and both are low-cost, low-density areas with a feeling of stagnation. I've had family up this way and visiting them always felt a little depressing. It's like if you took the dense active life of Portland let it fill up a vacuum so it spread out and suddenly felt lifeless.

Further north we get "The County" (Aroostook County) and a lot of woods. Even other Mainers laugh about the backwards nature of the place, like it's something right out of Deliverance... but a lot of people with a little extra cash maintain hunting cabins up there for sport trips. Lots of logging and flannel.