Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Jaymann]

Yes, but we have a secret weapon - herd mentality!

[Zaxxon]

Yes, but we have a secret weapon - herd mentality!

If the folks in power would just oscillate their mics, we'd all just get along.

[Alefroth]

The herd immunity approach also assumes death is the only negative outcome.

[hitbyambulance]

The herd immunity approach also assumes death is the only negative outcome.

the whole spectre of long-term/permanent disability in about 10%? 20%? of covid-19 survivors really seems to never be addressed by the 'open it all back up' crowd, ever. it's like it's too inconvenient a truth.

[Punisher]

Would this work?
We have samples of the virus.
We take every non-masker/herd immumist and fully infect them
We bar them from all hospital use and tell them to tough it out...for Merica..
The rational people that are left rebuild the country.

[Skinypupy]

The herd immunity approach also assumes death is the only negative outcome.

the whole spectre of long-term/permanent disability in about 10%? 20%? of covid-19 survivors really seems to never be addressed by the 'open it all back up' crowd, ever. it's like it's too inconvenient a truth.

All the MAGA's I know don't believe that long term effects are an actual thing. They all believe that the all the data that points to them is simply scare tactics with no proof because "how can we know for sure yet"?

It's an endlessly maddening discussion.

[hitbyambulance]

Wisconsin is doing pretty badly right now. they shot up like seven places in the NYTimes state covid ranking in just the past week.

[Smoove_B]

I was wondering when this would cross my radar. Who's behind the Great Barrington Declaration shared here a few days ago? Charles Koch:

Documents seen by Byline Times confirm that the Great Barrington Declaration advocating a ‘herd immunity’ approach to the COVID-19 pandemic has been sponsored by an institution embedded in a Koch-funded network that denies climate science while investing in polluting fossil fuel industries.

On 3 October 2020, the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), a libertarian free-market think-tank in Great Barrington, Massachusetts, hosted a private gathering of scientists, economists and journalists to discuss responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Among them was the distinguished Oxford University epidemiologist Professor Sunetra Gupta, among the most vocal proponents of a ‘herd immunity’ strategy.

Regarding the signatures:

But when I attempted to check how the signatory process works, I discovered that there was no vetting procedure in place for signatories – anybody could become a confirmed signatory of the Declaration and be categorised as a scientist or medic by falsifying entry information and ticking a box. By experimenting with the process myself, I was able to add myself as a signatory under the ‘Medical & Public Health Scientists’ category and received an automated email confirming this.

So yeah. Trash.

[Zaxxon]

Surprise!

[Holman]

The herd immunity approach also assumes death is the only negative outcome.

the whole spectre of long-term/permanent disability in about 10%? 20%? of covid-19 survivors really seems to never be addressed by the 'open it all back up' crowd, ever. it's like it's too inconvenient a truth.

All the MAGA's I know don't believe that long term effects are an actual thing. They all believe that the all the data that points to them is simply scare tactics with no proof because "how can we know for sure yet"?

It's an endlessly maddening discussion.

Once you reject expertise as elitism, what's left but ideology and wishful thinking?

[Holman]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51745?s=21

And he got it for less than $750. ART OF THE DEAL!

[malchior]

I was wondering when this would cross my radar. Who's behind the Great Barrington Declaration shared here a few days ago? Charles Koch

Imagine our collective shock. You could have also dropped it in the wealth inequality thread - it is insane how many people fall for manipulation by the extremely wealthy over and over.

[Isgrimnur]

I was wondering when this would cross my radar. Who's behind the Great Barrington Declaration shared here a few days ago? Charles Koch

Imagine our collective shock. You could have also dropped it in the wealth inequality thread - it is insane how many people fall for manipulation by the extremely wealthy over and over.

And yet the anti-Soros crowd would tell you the same thing. Without any evidence, of course.

[Daehawk]

400,000 dead by February?

The U.S. coronavirus death toll could almost double to about 400,000 by February, an influential model predicts.

This comes as the country reports the highest number of daily Covid-19 infections in almost two months, with experts offering grim outlooks if Americans don't take precautions.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the U.S. will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January.

Masks make a difference, experts say. If 95% of people in the U.S. wore them, the model projects, 79,000 fewer lives would be lost by February 1, and daily deaths would peak at less than 1,400.

Globally, the model predicts that 2,488,346 people will die from coronavirus by February 1. The model shows that if 95% of people around the world wore masks, more than three-quarters of a million lives would be saved by that date.

[Holman]

400,000 dead by February?

The U.S. coronavirus death toll could almost double to about 400,000 by February, an influential model predicts.

This comes as the country reports the highest number of daily Covid-19 infections in almost two months, with experts offering grim outlooks if Americans don't take precautions.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the U.S. will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January.

Masks make a difference, experts say. If 95% of people in the U.S. wore them, the model projects, 79,000 fewer lives would be lost by February 1, and daily deaths would peak at less than 1,400.

Globally, the model predicts that 2,488,346 people will die from coronavirus by February 1. The model shows that if 95% of people around the world wore masks, more than three-quarters of a million lives would be saved by that date.

GOP one week after Biden's inauguration: "Under President Biden we have 300,000 dead!"

[Defiant]

That's a modest improvement because, IIRC, there were predictions of 400,000 by January. Of course, these models have a very large margin of error, so you need to take them with an unhealthy level of salt.

[Kraken]

That's a modest improvement because, IIRC, there were predictions of 400,000 by January. Of course, these models have a very large margin of error, so you need to take them with an unhealthy level of salt.

Yeah, I remembered it that way too. I think the difference is that the death rate has fallen after taking out the easiest targets, like those in elder care facilities. It's not like we've done a good job containing the infection rate.

[gilraen]

That's a modest improvement because, IIRC, there were predictions of 400,000 by January. Of course, these models have a very large margin of error, so you need to take them with an unhealthy level of salt.

Yeah, I remembered it that way too. I think the difference is that the death rate has fallen after taking out the easiest targets, like those in elder care facilities. It's not like we've done a good job containing the infection rate.

Just wait until we hit holiday season. Thanksgiving dinners and packing into Walmart for Black Friday and traveling cross-country to visit family on Christmas and whatever else that Americans will refuse to give up, because freedom!

[Smoove_B]

It's not political, but it is.

https://twitter.com/StevenJDuffield/sta ... 0797451265

This is an amazing chart. Gallup.

[Max Peck]

That's a modest improvement because, IIRC, there were predictions of 400,000 by January. Of course, these models have a very large margin of error, so you need to take them with an unhealthy level of salt.

Yeah, I remembered it that way too. I think the difference is that the death rate has fallen after taking out the easiest targets, like those in elder care facilities. It's not like we've done a good job containing the infection rate.

Just wait until we hit holiday season. Thanksgiving dinners and packing into Walmart for Black Friday and traveling cross-country to visit family on Christmas and whatever else that Americans will refuse to give up, because freedom!

Canada is beta testing the holiday impact this weekend. OPH has been begging people not to be stupid over the Thanksgiving weekend, but I'm not super hopeful that the people that apparently haven't been listening for the last couple of months are going to take the advice to heart now.

[Isgrimnur]

CDC Provisional Death Counts

[LawBeefaroni]

That's a modest improvement because, IIRC, there were predictions of 400,000 by January. Of course, these models have a very large margin of error, so you need to take them with an unhealthy level of salt.

Yeah, I remembered it that way too. I think the difference is that the death rate has fallen after taking out the easiest targets, like those in elder care facilities. It's not like we've done a good job containing the infection rate.

Just wait until we hit holiday season. Thanksgiving dinners and packing into Walmart for Black Friday and traveling cross-country to visit family on Christmas and whatever else that Americans will refuse to give up, because freedom!

Plus no outdoor dining/bars in cold weather states. People gonna risk it indoors.

[malchior]

So he is still positive, right?

https://mobile.twitter.com/Acosta/statu ... 6326638592

[Smoove_B]

Herman Cain - also not a transmission risk to others. Just sayin'. I think it's safe to assume he's still positive, yes. And the reason is because if he was negative, he'd be out bragging how strong and awesome he is and how he now has negative COVID test results after such a short period of time.

The big issue is trying to puzzle out exactly when he was first positive and what day we're on now as it relates to that. But since no one will confirm has last date of testing negative, it's complicating everything. We don't even really know for sure exactly when he tested positive for the first time either.

It's non-stop shenanigans and I can only hope I'm still alive when we find out exactly what was happening behind the scenes.

[Holman]

Mistakes were made.

[malchior]

Conley appears to be letting the CDC guidance do a lot of heavy lifting.

• 10 days since symptoms first appeared and
• 24 hours with no fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and
• Other symptoms of COVID-19 are improving*

[Daehawk]

Trump to hold rally Monday in Florida despite his COVID-19 case



Kinda looks like Trump

[Smoove_B]

Is it really a "rally" if he can only speak for 18 minutes? Let's see how things change over the next 48 hours.

[Unagi]

Is it really a "rally" if he can only speak for 18 minutes? Let's see how things change over the next 48 hours.

Why?
Serious question.
Do you think he may still ‘get worse’?

[Smoove_B]

Absolutely yes. No one has any idea right now just how much he's being propped up by drugs.

There's a few scenarios (broadly). If he is the first person on the planet to be 100% cured by a secret mixture of pharmaceuticals, then that combination should be released and provided to the research community for analysis.

The second is this secret mixture moved him out of the danger window but the virus is still working him over and he won't realistically be recovered for that 21+ day window we're seeing, and then we want to know what the other damage is (lungs, kidneys, brain, etc...). I'd be amazed if he recovered fully.

The third scenario is the cocktail just gave him time. It moved him out of that initial danger window, but the virus can surge again 10+ days into the course of the illness. This is the story we've heard time and time again where they person says they feel great and then they take a hard turn somewhere around day 10-14 and never recover.

I'm more or less paraphrasing what I'm seeing others (doctors that have worked on patients) saying over the last week+, commenting on what they see with Trump.

I think the middle scenario seems likely now. He's not "fully cured" and I think he's out of that danger window where it seemingly surges. The second scenario seems most likely at this point. As I've said all week - did he go golfing yesterday? Is he out golfing today? That's how you know he's not back to normal. It's one thing to talk to Rush on the phone for 2 hours. It's another to walk across a stage (or balcony) after hours of hair and makeup work to go stand and give a speech. He barely made it 18 minutes and that's after whatever else they gave him to prop him up. The idea that he's going to travel to FL and do it again seem ludicrous.

[LawBeefaroni]

The third scenario is unlikely. If he only got the steroidal treatment it would be the case but also got two different antibody treatments. These were specifically included to avoid the rebound caused by a supressed immune system.

From all indications they worked as advertised.


Plus who knows the prophylactic advantages he had going in, what with with convalescent plasma and whatever else.

[Holman]

Relax, everybody.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 76997?s=20

[Zarathud]

It = a clue, not Covid-19

[pr0ner]

Relax, everybody.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 76997?s=20

Twitter flagged that tweet as being misleading regarding Covid.

[Max Peck]

COVID-19 Is Now the Third Leading Cause of Death in the U.S.

“It affects virtually nobody,” President Donald Trump said of the novel coronavirus on September 21—a few hours before U.S. deaths from COVID-19 exceeded 200,000 and less than two weeks before he tested positive. Unlike the president, the numbers don’t lie. The human toll underlying that milestone figure is a number about as big as the population of Salt Lake City or Birmingham, Ala.—and greater than the deaths in any U.S. conflict except for the Civil War and World War II.

The figures speak for themselves, and Scientific American takes a deeper look here. COVID-19 became the third biggest cause of deaths in the week of March 30 to April 4, trailing heart disease and cancer. It killed more people than stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, kidney disease or influenza. In that week, close to 10,000 people died of the illness caused by the coronavirus. The flu, which Trump and others have invoked when discussing COVID-19, led to 1,870 deaths (a figure that includes pneumonia) over the same time frame. A spike in the week-by-week accounting came in mid-April, when COVID-19 cases became the leading cause of death. The disease returned to the third deadliest spot in the week of May 4 to 9 and has stayed there since.

[Smoove_B]

Dig deeper:

The share of Americans who died in the first eight months of this year was greater than that of any year going back to 1970—a year that paradoxically turned out to be a good one for public health. In 1970 President Richard Nixon signed the Occupational Safety and Health Act, put his signature on a bill to ban television and radio cigarette ads, and sent to Congress a plan for setting up the Environmental Protection Agency.

bUt iTs nO wOrSe tHaN tHe fLu!

[Daehawk]

Dont tell Trump that. He'd be so upset that he was late for tee off because he had to stay and tell you how wrong you were and that he is a very stable genius and knows more than any doctor when it comes to health and COVID.

[YellowKing]

I'm getting increasingly frustrated with people who continue to stick their head in the sands and insist there's nothing to the whole Covid thing.

Had a conversation with a friend this weekend who believes the whole thing is exaggerated out of proportion. He also called people who wear masks "sheep" even though he will still wear one in a store if he absolutely has to.

It's frustrating trying to get through to someone that the reality isn't "Covid isn't that bad, so people are wearing masks for no reason." The reality is "Covid isn't worse BECAUSE people are wearing masks."

[malchior]

Double

[malchior]

I was just reading about this - I'll see if I can dig it up - the upshot is that there is almost no way in the current environment. They need to be away from the environment and then deprogrammed. It really is very much a cult. It is beyond burying their head in the sand unfortunately. You have very little chance to get through to them.