Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[Scraper]

The real impact of Trump's town hall is that it prevents Trump supporters from hearing Biden's message. Just like the debate. If Team Trump prevents them from hearing Biden's message, they don't have to worry about them changing their minds.

Just wait until Biden's town hall gets better ratings than Trump's. The orange one will have a full on Twitter meltdown after that.

[Defiant]

The real impact of Trump's town hall is that it prevents Trump supporters from hearing Biden's message. Just like the debate. If Team Trump prevents them from hearing Biden's message, they don't have to worry about them changing their minds.

I thought Trump's performance in the debate did cause some people to change their minds (although, admittedly, it's hard to tell whether it was that or his Covid diagnosis because they happened around the same time).

[malchior]

The real impact of Trump's town hall is that it prevents Trump supporters from hearing Biden's message. Just like the debate. If Team Trump prevents them from hearing Biden's message, they don't have to worry about them changing their minds.

Just wait until Biden's town hall gets better ratings than Trump's. The orange one will have a full on Twitter meltdown after that.

He'll claim victory no matter what. It's entire point of this stunt.

[LawBeefaroni]

After dipping as low as 83%, the Biden is now back up to 91% probability of an EC victory in The Economist forecast:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

Still in my bunker. If NASA identified a 100km asteroid with a 9% chance of hitting the Earth, we'd be building spaceships for Bruce Willis and Liv Tyler right now.

Ben Affleck. Liv stayed behind and gets to look very concerned in Mission Control.

Ah, true, stupid details. Although I think we're ready as a nation to launch Arwen into space.

[El Guapo]

I'm skeptical that these town halls are going to matter. I think there's some cache around "presidential debates" such that you get a wider audience than would normally watch political events or town halls or the like. These are not going to be debates, so I think it's probable that you lose a large segment of low-information voters, who are probably more persuadable. And yeah, Trump's town hall probably limits Biden's ability to reach gettable Trump voters, but at the same token it limits Trump's ability to reach gettable Biden voters. And since Biden is way up with not a lot of time left, anything that kills the clock while being relatively neutral in impact helps Biden more than Trump.

Trump needs to be trying political hail marys, which he's not doing. He should really be fighting for some kind of actual debate, but he's not.

[Kraken]

The real impact of Trump's town hall is that it prevents Trump supporters from hearing Biden's message. Just like the debate. If Team Trump prevents them from hearing Biden's message, they don't have to worry about them changing their minds.

Just wait until Biden's town hall gets better ratings than Trump's. The orange one will have a full on Twitter meltdown after that.

Trump is undeniably the more entertaining of the two. Having already voted, I'd only be watching for entertainment. If I didn't find trump so repulsive on every level, I'd be more inclined to watch his show than Biden's.

[Isgrimnur]

Finally, a poll that puts Trump on top!

A new poll published by I24News and conducted by the Direct Falls Research Institute on Monday found that 63.3% of Israelis prefer the reelection of incumbent US President Donald Trump, compared to 18.8% whom prefer former Vice President and Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Respondents indicated that a majority believe Trump will be a better president for the State of Israel, a minority of Israelis said the same about Biden. 10.4% of respondents said that both candidates would be equally good for the State of Israel, while 3.1% said neither.

Amusing. The only references I can find to "Direct Falls Research Institute" are references to this press release.

[malchior]

I'm skeptical that these town halls are going to matter.

Oh I absolutely agree this isn't going to amount to anything. My problem is with NBC. It indicates that - despite intense shoegazing from some in the media - the forces that seemingly still have influence at the top of the game are the ones who played a significant role in getting us into this mess. Hopefully it won't matter but their traditional role informing the public is in pretty bad shape.

[LawBeefaroni]

Finally, a poll that puts Trump on top!

A new poll published by I24News and conducted by the Direct Falls Research Institute on Monday found that 63.3% of Israelis prefer the reelection of incumbent US President Donald Trump, compared to 18.8% whom prefer former Vice President and Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Respondents indicated that a majority believe Trump will be a better president for the State of Israel, a minority of Israelis said the same about Biden. 10.4% of respondents said that both candidates would be equally good for the State of Israel, while 3.1% said neither.

Amusing. The only references I can find to "Direct Falls Research Institute" are references to this press release.

Jpost credits I24News with publishing it. I24 says they commissioned it:

A clear majority of Israelis favor the re-election of US President Donald Trump come November’s presidential elections, a new poll conducted for i24NEWS showed Monday night.

Zoom in below for the very telling fine print. Direct Polls LTD is a small 3 person shop and both CEOs (?) conducted this survey personally.


So not all that convincing, though the results aren't all that shocking either.


(Not sure where Jpost got "Direct Falls Institute" from)

[malchior]

Yeah - that we think it isn't surprising is the point - they are leaning into a perceived bias. It's perhaps true but it likely is junk data unless proven otherwise.

Edit: As a quick dig into the background this is almost sure propaganda.

Shlomo Filber was the head of their FCC under Netanyahu.

Tzuriel Sharon ran the cellular outreach program for the Likud party and was part of Netanyahu's campaign staff.

This is like saying that Ajit Pai and Brad Perscale conducted a survey individually and came up with those results.

[Octavious]

And now Fox is pushing hard Hunter and emails. Seriously we're going to be doing an email investigation days before the election again. I don't think anyone gives a crap this time though.

[Little Raven]

17 points. Yowza.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has surged to a record 17 points as the US election enters its final sprint, an Opinium Research and Guardian opinion poll shows.

Some 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden, while just 40% say they will vote for the incumbent president, the survey shows.

The 17-point gap is even bigger than than 57%-41% margin found by CNN earlier this month. It is just short of the lead in the popular vote that Ronald Reagan enjoyed in his second landslide victory in 1984.

[Octavious]

Everything is so f'd up that I won't feel safe until the ahole is officially out of office. I'm so mentally exhausted by how shitty these last 4 years have been. I honestly don't know what I will do if he somehow stays in office. I mentally could not take another 4 years of him and his f'n clan of idiots.

[Little Raven]

That's no moon....
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 0605343745

[Jaymann]

Surprisingly, a landslide victory by Biden may actually be a better result than if Clinton had won in 2016:

The Republicans have been exposed as bottom feeding racist scum.

The Democrats stand to gain both Houses.

We have Kamala Harris a heartbeat from the Presidency.

The hypocrisy of "Law and Order" has been exposed.

It becomes unlikely another Trump will be elected.

Voters are more motivated than ever.

Voter suppression will be under attack.

[El Guapo]

Surprisingly, a landslide victory by Biden may actually be a better result than if Clinton had won in 2016:

The Republicans have been exposed as bottom feeding racist scum.

The Democrats stand to gain both Houses.

We have Kamala Harris a heartbeat from the Presidency.

The hypocrisy of "Law and Order" has been exposed.

It becomes unlikely another Trump will be elected.

Voters are more motivated than ever.

Voter suppression will be under attack.

The other big upside is that the Senate map in 2018 was so unbelievably grim for Democrats that had Clinton been president (which would have created a much more pro-Republican political environment, since we'd be halfway through a third Democratic administration in a row and given general mid-term effects), the Democrats would likely have been annihilated to a degree that would've put the Senate out of reach for a decade or two. And Clinton almost certainly would've lost reelection in 2020 anyway.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Surprisingly, a landslide victory by Biden may actually be a better result than if Clinton had won in 2016:

Except Trump has gotten/is getting three SC judges and 100s of federal judges, all with lifetime appointments. That's going to shape things in this country for the next 30 years.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Oh and the 200,000+ and counting dead. Of course there would be a high death count no matter who was president, but I would hope a Clinton presidency would've taken this thing much more seriously.

[Jaymann]

Oh and the 200,000+ and counting dead. Of course there would be a high death count no matter who was president, but I would hope a Clinton presidency would've taken this thing much more seriously.

Very likely she would have. But the Republicans would have been on her like vampires on a fresh corpse. And you thought a tan suit was a crisis!

[El Guapo]

Oh and the 200,000+ and counting dead. Of course there would be a high death count no matter who was president, but I would hope a Clinton presidency would've taken this thing much more seriously.

Well, sure, there is that minor downside as well, and the threat of the consolidation of an autocratic regime that could endure for decades. But *other that that*...

[YellowKing]

A buddy of mine posted this tweet by Robin Masters (@Robin_Blue19):

People do not line up in record numbers to vote 3 weeks before Election Day because they're happy with the way things are going. He's going down, and it's going to be a landslide.

[malchior]

A buddy of mine posted this tweet by Robin Masters (@Robin_Blue19):

People do not line up in record numbers to vote 3 weeks before Election Day because they're happy with the way things are going. He's going down, and it's going to be a landslide.

I worry about the deplorable reaction to a landslide but at the end of the day I'd also like a clear result. At the very least so that the very serious people can stop with the equivocation. I'm hoping we'll be able to say the people spoke - we massively repudiate Trumpism. We repudiate the GOP and their abuses of power. We want change. And we need it now.

The very best outcome is we start to see an attenuation of noise from the right. Not because it'll be less -- it'll get louder -- but because we have hard evidence that they have little support. But that is probably hoping for too much.

[YellowKing]

I don't think there's any question that a landslide will force the Republican party to change. Their ability to win another election absolutely depends on it.

That doesn't mean the change will come from a place of goodness - it will be just another self-serving survival tactic. But it's better than the alternative of them continuing to accelerate towards fascism.

[Little Raven]

The very best outcome is we start to see an attenuation of noise from the right. Not because it'll be less -- it'll get louder -- but because we have hard evidence that they have little support. But that is probably hoping for too much.

If Trump gets blown out the fashion it looks like he will be, the Republican party will change. There's no point to a party that loses by double digits.

I'm hoping they stuff the alt-Right back into their holes and go back to being the party of guys in glasses who say "You can't afford this." Right now, the Democrats have to play the role of the conservative party, and that sucks.

[coopasonic]

The very best outcome is we start to see an attenuation of noise from the right. Not because it'll be less -- it'll get louder -- but because we have hard evidence that they have little support. But that is probably hoping for too much.

If Trump gets blown out the fashion it looks like he will be, the Republican party will change. There's no point to a party that loses by double digits.

I'm hoping they stuff the alt-Right back into their holes and go back to being the party of guys in glasses who say "You can't afford this." Right now, the Democrats have to play the role of the conservative party, and that sucks.

It will still be funded by the big money and will still cater to the big money. They will find a way to expand the umbrella while still making the rich richer.

Honestly though I think the advantages of the EC and the Senate mean they don't really have to change much, just pick somebody that's less of a toxic embarrassment who says it all out loud to be the figurehead.

[malchior]

It will still be funded by the big money and will still cater to the big money. They will find a way to expand the umbrella while still making the rich richer.

Honestly though I think the advantages of the EC and the Senate mean they don't really have to change much, just pick somebody that's less of a toxic embarrassment who says it all out loud to be the figurehead.

Exactly. This will almost certainly fall squarely on Trump and his rampant corruption and unsuitability though it fairly belongs to the GOP as well. If all we get is a roll back to 2016...well we're still in a really, really bad place. Heck the 2008 GOP were really bad. This isn't some new phenomenon and I don't expect them to shed their hard-right tenets. Maybe they pull back on naked white supremacy but a significant move to the center? I don't see it happening.

[El Guapo]

Got our ballots in the mail this afternoon. Looking at the presidential voting section reminded me of this classic:

[El Guapo]

It will still be funded by the big money and will still cater to the big money. They will find a way to expand the umbrella while still making the rich richer.

Honestly though I think the advantages of the EC and the Senate mean they don't really have to change much, just pick somebody that's less of a toxic embarrassment who says it all out loud to be the figurehead.

Exactly. This will almost certainly fall squarely on Trump and his rampant corruption and unsuitability though it fairly belongs to the GOP as well. If all we get is a roll back to 2016...well we're still in a really, really bad place. Heck the 2008 GOP were really bad. This isn't some new phenomenon and I don't expect them to shed their hard-right tenets. Maybe they pull back on naked white supremacy but a significant move to the center? I don't see it happening.

Yeah, I don't think that the GOP will ultimately change much unless Democrats reform the political system in which they're operating. The reality of the GOP's Senate advantage means that McConnell and GOP leadership can be as conservative as they want and still expect to control the Senate maybe 70% of the time. It will cost them presidential and House elections that would otherwise be winnable (and cost them Senate control a small portion of the time), but by controlling the Senate they retain veto control over any significant legislation, and can ensure that the judiciary will block a significant portion of the measures that Democrats pass during brief periods of Democratic control.

On top of that gerrymandering and the electoral college, while they provide more fleeting advantages, will help the GOP retain one or both of those more than they should while still pushing far right policies.

So if we want the GOP to be a sane and responsible governing party, we need to significantly reform the system. I think it's reasonably likely that we'd get some reforms in this direction (some voting rights legislation, maybe get DC and/or PR admitted to the Senate), but I doubt that it's going to go far enough (especially since a big part of the Senate issues are hardwired into the Constitution).

[Kraken]

Surprisingly, a landslide victory by Biden may actually be a better result than if Clinton had won in 2016:

The Republicans have been exposed as bottom feeding racist scum.

The Democrats stand to gain both Houses.

We have Kamala Harris a heartbeat from the Presidency.

The hypocrisy of "Law and Order" has been exposed.

It becomes unlikely another Trump will be elected.

Voters are more motivated than ever.

Voter suppression will be under attack.

The other big upside is that the Senate map in 2018 was so unbelievably grim for Democrats that had Clinton been president (which would have created a much more pro-Republican political environment, since we'd be halfway through a third Democratic administration in a row and given general mid-term effects), the Democrats would likely have been annihilated to a degree that would've put the Senate out of reach for a decade or two. And Clinton almost certainly would've lost reelection in 2020 anyway.

And she would've accomplished approximately bupkis during her term due to a hostile Congress, weak popular support, and endless investigations.

Alternate history is always fun.

[Little Raven]

It will still be funded by the big money and will still cater to the big money. They will find a way to expand the umbrella while still making the rich richer.

Sure, but right now, the DEMOCRATS are playing that role. (look at who Wall Street is funding) I'd much rather have that slot filled by Republicans.

[Kraken]

A buddy of mine posted this tweet by Robin Masters (@Robin_Blue19):

People do not line up in record numbers to vote 3 weeks before Election Day because they're happy with the way things are going. He's going down, and it's going to be a landslide.

I worry about the deplorable reaction to a landslide but at the end of the day I'd also like a clear result. At the very least so that the very serious people can stop with the equivocation. I'm hoping we'll be able to say the people spoke - we massively repudiate Trumpism. We repudiate the GOP and their abuses of power. We want change. And we need it now.

Domestic politics aside, our allies will rejoice if government of, by, and for the people doesn't perish from the earth just yet, and Americans clearly demonstrate that we aren't That Guy.

[Holman]

It will still be funded by the big money and will still cater to the big money. They will find a way to expand the umbrella while still making the rich richer.

Honestly though I think the advantages of the EC and the Senate mean they don't really have to change much, just pick somebody that's less of a toxic embarrassment who says it all out loud to be the figurehead.

Exactly. This will almost certainly fall squarely on Trump and his rampant corruption and unsuitability though it fairly belongs to the GOP as well. If all we get is a roll back to 2016...well we're still in a really, really bad place. Heck the 2008 GOP were really bad. This isn't some new phenomenon and I don't expect them to shed their hard-right tenets. Maybe they pull back on naked white supremacy but a significant move to the center? I don't see it happening.

With the White Supremacy genie (back) out of the bottle and foreign interference proven to be a complication but not a death knell, I won't surprised to see the GOP morph into the domestic arm of a more international movement of authoritarian nationalism.

It's not hard to imagine an evolution where Putin and other authoritarians take a greater role in domestic American politics, especially if they're helping the GOP to get what it wants. What's to stop them?

[Little Raven]

What's to stop them?

If history is any guide, the Democrats will find themselves plenty unpopular within few years without any help from overseas.

Biden is going to be taking over during what promises to be a brutal recession and an ongoing pandemic. Yes, Obama managed to do that and look good (well, the recession part anyway)....but Obama was an exception in many ways. (and even as Obama's fortunes rose, Democrats at large suffered) He's going to have to raise taxes, which for reasons incomprehensible to me sends large numbers of Americans into conniptions. Cities and states are going to be massively trimming staff and services, which won't be his fault, but it's going to make people unhappy and they always blame the guy at the top no matter what. And while the Democratic party is united in it's hatred of Trump, it's a VERY wide party once you get him off the stage. Internal divisions are going to surface fast and hard.

Besides, Putin has more immediate concerns.

This year should have ushered in Russia’s return to greatness and Putin’s assumption of ‘great statesman’ status. Instead it has been marked by trouble for the man who would be czar.

[El Guapo]

And the latest state to turn blue in the 538 model is.... Georgia

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9905701888

Though don't blow on it or it'll turn back red again.

[Kraken]

I know a couple of libs who live in Atlanta, so I credit them.

[malchior]

It sounds like the Biden camp is afraid the lead looks too big and wants to keep the foot on the gas.

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1 ... 5537979392

[El Guapo]

Now hold on - you're saying that someone trying to raise money for a political campaign is telling people who they are trying to convince to give money that the race is not a blowout??? I find this hard to believe, sir!

[Octavious]

But the emails!

[malchior]

Now hold on - you're saying that someone trying to raise money for a political campaign is telling people who they are trying to convince to give money that the race is not a blowout??? I find this hard to believe, sir!

I saw other posts of that theme. They raised nearly $400M last month and Trump's campaign is flatlined money-wise so I don't know if money is what is worrying them. They want high turnout.

[Little Raven]

They raised nearly $400M last month and Trump's campaign is flatlined money-wise so I don't know if money is what is worrying them. They want high turnout.

They want high turnout.....AND more money.

There is never enough money.