malchior wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:28 pmThey raised nearly $400M last month and Trump's campaign is flatlined money-wise so I don't know if money is what is worrying them. They want high turnout.
They want high turnout.....AND more money.
There is never enough money.
Yup. I mean, all of their interests point towards convincing people that this is not a blowout. For one, it may not be. There's always the chance of a significant polling error in Trump's favor, plus the tipping point states are at least a couple points closer to Trump, plus the chances of voting suppression shenanigans...put those all together and if they all combine you could wind up with a close race. So, best to keep the foot on the gas.
That said, I don't take this as much of an indication that the race is actually close.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:38 pmThat said, I don't take this as much of an indication that the race is actually close.
Exactly. That'd be a hell of an error rate at this point. Like in an unprecedented way. Still we'll have to see if the polling tightens as the day approaches because many will be cast day of.
Honestly, I hope that the Biden team is spending 90% of its time and energy on combating Trump electoral shenanigans, because that's by far the most plausible route for Trump to stay in office.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:53 pm
Honestly, I hope that the Biden team is spending 90% of its time and energy on combating Trump electoral shenanigans, because that's by far the most plausible route for Trump to stay in office.
Same - if I were them I would be prepping tiger teams of lawyers for key states.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:53 pm
Honestly, I hope that the Biden team is spending 90% of its time and energy on combating Trump electoral shenanigans, because that's by far the most plausible route for Trump to stay in office.
Same - if I were them I would be prepping tiger teams of lawyers for key states.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:53 pm
Honestly, I hope that the Biden team is spending 90% of its time and energy on combating Trump electoral shenanigans, because that's by far the most plausible route for Trump to stay in office.
Same - if I were them I would be prepping tiger teams of lawyers for key states.
Yeah - I recall that. Re-reading it I assume and hope they are working on playbooks, legal research, etc. especially in close states where say Republican officials dominate the landscape. I'd rather they have a strong plan that they don't need. That is the Incident Response guy inside me though applying my world-view on this.
El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:53 pm
Honestly, I hope that the Biden team is spending 90% of its time and energy on combating Trump electoral shenanigans, because that's by far the most plausible route for Trump to stay in office.
Same - if I were them I would be prepping tiger teams of lawyers for key states.
Yeah - I recall that. Re-reading it I assume and hope they are working on playbooks, legal research, etc. especially in close states where say Republican officials dominate the landscape. I'd rather they have a strong plan that they don't need. That is the Incident Response guy inside me though applying my world-view on this.
Yeah, and pre-preparing emergency motions that they might need, and the like. I do know for sure that there are mechanisms run by the campaign and by the DNC to deal with voting issues in each state, as I'm volunteering in NH for one (as I did in 2016 and 2018). Basically you have volunteers as poll observers in various polling places, who then report any issues into a central state committee, who then as needed files emergency motions and/or calls up the state AG as appropriate.
I hope that there is even more of that than in previous years.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:12 amYeah, and pre-preparing emergency motions that they might need, and the like. I do know for sure that there are mechanisms run by the campaign and by the DNC to deal with voting issues in each state, as I'm volunteering in NH for one (as I did in 2016 and 2018). Basically you have volunteers as poll observers in various polling places, who then report any issues into a central state committee, who then as needed files emergency motions and/or calls up the state AG as appropriate.
I hope that there is even more of that than in previous years.
One good thing is we can expect them to be challenging mail-in ballots so they can focus on that. They have outputs from the summer table tops exercises. Hopefully some of those scenarios were real enough to turn into actionable preparedness. They've got the time to get in front of some of this. Another good thing I read but lives more in rumor land right now is he is tapping Giuliani and Sekulow to spearhead this stuff. If so, I feel tons better. Those guys are both horrible.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:12 amYeah, and pre-preparing emergency motions that they might need, and the like. I do know for sure that there are mechanisms run by the campaign and by the DNC to deal with voting issues in each state, as I'm volunteering in NH for one (as I did in 2016 and 2018). Basically you have volunteers as poll observers in various polling places, who then report any issues into a central state committee, who then as needed files emergency motions and/or calls up the state AG as appropriate.
I hope that there is even more of that than in previous years.
One good thing is we can expect them to be challenging mail-in ballots so they can focus on that. They have outputs from the summer table tops exercises. Hopefully some of those scenarios were real enough to turn into actionable preparedness. They've got the time to get in front of some of this. Another good thing I read but lives more in rumor land right now is he is tapping Giuliani and Sekulow to spearhead this stuff. If so, I feel tons better. Those guys are both horrible.
One thing I learned about NH that I thought was good is that they're going to have separate meetings open to designated campaign representatives at polling places in the couple days before election day to open the outer envelopes of mail in ballots and check that they're signed, etc. This will be the only opportunity for challenge of the mail in ballots, so any mail-in ballot not challenged can't be challenged on election day. Which is good, because: (1) it will help NH have a reasonably complete vote total on election day; (2) limit the ability to gum up the electoral process on election day; (3) allow a chance to 'cure' any defective ballots (if a ballot is deemed defective, because there's a name on it the campaign can call up the voter and let them know so that they can cast a ballot on election day.
Not sure where to put this, but this is a sign of where our political discourse is in this country. My neighbor, who up until this week hadn't put out any yard signs or campaign flags just hung this one up on his front porch. The porch and flag happen to be looking directly at a house across the street that have the standard Biden Harris 2020 yard signs. This is the flag:
Holman wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:31 am
NBC brought you The Apprentice, and The Apprentice brought you the Sith Lord.
The radio this morning was confirming my bias so they must have been preaching the truth. They were railing NBC for presumably making a ratings grab to compete with the townhall that Trump refused with Trump, knowing that "he'd be more entertaining" than Biden and draw a larger viewership and that setting a competing timeslot is a dis service to voters and the public interest... for a one hour timeslot ratings grab... (the radio station is a property of CBS radio)
Fucking Comey. If we get through this ok I feel like he should really make himself available on a tour for everyone in America to slap him once, if they want to.
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:09 am
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
An obvious one being Unfavorable rating. Biden's is well south of 50% while Trump's has...checks data...improved since 2016. Fuck it. I give up. Looking at that data is baffling. Anyway, he is about 54-55% Unfavorable.
Edit: About Trump's rise in Favorability. I guess people weren't truly convinced he was a racist piece of shit. Now they are like...yeah he is *ONE OF US*! Finally! I don't know. That is the first time I compared...and WTF? I'm floored.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:09 am
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
An obvious one being Unfavorable rating. Biden's is well south of 50% while Trump's has...checks data...improved since 2016. Fuck it. I give up. Looking at that data is baffling. Anyway, he is about 54-55% Unfavorable.
Edit: About Trump's rise in Favorability. I guess people weren't truly convinced he was a racist piece of shit. Now they are like...yeah he is *ONE OF US*! Finally! I don't know. That is the first time I compared...and WTF? I'm floored.
On Trump's favorability, I recall seeing something a little while ago about how presidential favorability and vote % tend to coalesce as the election approaches. Which makes some sense - there will always be some percentage of fairly partisan voters who will dislike the president at some level for X or Y reason, but who will reliably choose the president over the candidate of the opposition party. Once it hits the point of "are you going to vote for the president or the other guy" no one's going to want to say "yeah I think he sucks but I'm going to vote for him anyway" so they'll tend to start reporting favorable views when they start saying that they're likely to vote for him.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:09 am
Fucking Comey. If we get through this ok I feel like he should really make himself available on a tour for everyone in America to slap him once, if they want to.
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
I think Trump himself has made it unlikely that any Comey letter-like event will have any impact. We've shrugged off so many smoking guns over the last four years that one more isn't going to make any difference.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:09 am
Fucking Comey. If we get through this ok I feel like he should really make himself available on a tour for everyone in America to slap him once, if they want to.
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
I think Trump himself has made it unlikely that any Comey letter-like event will have any impact. We've shrugged off so many smoking guns over the last four years that one more isn't going to make any difference.
This. Trump is grasping at straws and everybody knows it.
Jaymann wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:01 pmTrump is grasping at straws and everybody knows it.
He always has, and somehow constantly manages to yank on the ones that keep everyone distracted long enough for him to grasp again and again and again.
Black Lives Matter
2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
2025-01-20: The nightmares continue.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:09 am
Fucking Comey. If we get through this ok I feel like he should really make himself available on a tour for everyone in America to slap him once, if they want to.
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
I think Trump himself has made it unlikely that any Comey letter-like event will have any impact. We've shrugged off so many smoking guns over the last four years that one more isn't going to make any difference.
This. Trump is grasping at straws and everybody knows it.
Yeah, and Trump's just thoroughly shredded any credibility with any serious journalist or thinker outside of the Fox News bubble. The NY Post story is getting more discussion that I would have liked honestly, BUT for the most part it's focused on the flimsiness of the story, and doesn't seem to be getting a ton of "is this a problem for Biden?" type credulous horserace coverage.
I don't think it's going to be anything like the Comey letter. It's going to be some kind of executive action or order that will have the election or Biden tied up in court for months.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:09 am
Fucking Comey. If we get through this ok I feel like he should really make himself available on a tour for everyone in America to slap him once, if they want to.
Anyway, as we've talked about, there are actually a lot of reasons to view Biden's position as significantly more robust than Clinton's, but obviously there are a number of things that could plausibly go wrong and make this race more competitive.
I think Trump himself has made it unlikely that any Comey letter-like event will have any impact. We've shrugged off so many smoking guns over the last four years that one more isn't going to make any difference.
This. Trump is grasping at straws and everybody knows it.
Yeah, and Trump's just thoroughly shredded any credibility with any serious journalist or thinker outside of the Fox News bubble. The NY Post story is getting more discussion that I would have liked honestly, BUT for the most part it's focused on the flimsiness of the story, and doesn't seem to be getting a ton of "is this a problem for Biden?" type credulous horserace coverage.
At some point you have to wonder if this is multi-purposed. If it undermines Biden then great. If it sets the stage for whatever call to action Trump lays down after the election then that's good too. My level of dread is increasing day by day.
Defiant wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:39 am
It allows Undecideds to play Choose Your Own Town Hall.
Undecideds leaning towards Biden will be able to watch Biden answer questions, and it will help convince them to vote for Biden.
Undecideds leaning towards Trump will be able to watch Trump avoid answering questions, and it will help convince them to vote for Biden.
Mac Isaac said he had a medical condition that prevented him from actually seeing who dropped off the laptop...
A condition known as headuppassitis.
Actually I believe it's Sudden Onset Poloniumitis that has prevented him from talking about it.
Seriously. Dropping off a cache of forged documents is like Russian Disinformation Plan Uno один. They've been running variants on this scheme for over a hundred years.
She's a Democratic committeeperson who has (without real support from the Ward leader, who is much more interested in the grit of local city and union politics) dedicated herself to organizing a self-funded postcard and letter campaign aimed at Dem voters who sat out the primary.
Past patterns show that these people are gettable to the polls with some encouragement: they ignore the primary because they don't keep up on the news, but they are motivated enough to have registered Dem in the past, and they're exactly the people who might or might not show up on election day depending on schedule and weather and whatever. They're the people who'll benefit from understanding that there are several paths to being counted, and that's what the info has been about.
The mailers are spam of a sort, sure, but we ensured that each had at least a touch of personal contact, such as a handwritten note thanking the recipient for being a voter. And all the information was neighborhood-specific about voting locations and times and etc.
Along with a team of about 40+ volunteers, she just sent out the last mailer. All told, she orchestrated info to 14,000 (!) addresses, many of which include multiple voters.
Available data shows that requests and returns of ballots in her targeted area have already left past totals far behind.
Holman wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:57 pm
I have to brag on my wife again.
She's a Democratic committeeperson who has (without real support from the Ward leader, who is much more interested in the grit of local city and union politics) dedicated herself to organizing a self-funded postcard and letter campaign aimed at Dem voters who sat out the primary.
Past patterns show that these people are gettable to the polls with some encouragement: they ignore the primary because they don't keep up on the news, but they are motivated enough to have registered Dem in the past, and they're exactly the people who might or might not show up on election day depending on schedule and weather and whatever. They're the people who'll benefit from understanding that there are several paths to being counted, and that's what the info has been about.
The mailers are spam of a sort, sure, but we ensured that each had at least a touch of personal contact, such as a handwritten note thanking the recipient for being a voter. And all the information was neighborhood-specific about voting locations and times and etc.
Along with a team of about 40+ volunteers, she just sent out the last mailer. All told, she orchestrated info to 14,000 (!) addresses, many of which include multiple voters.
Available data shows that requests and returns of ballots in her targeted area have already left past totals far behind.
The right is losing its mind about this Hunter Biden stuff. There is a tweet going around tonight that I will not link that re-cast Hunter Biden as the force behind the Pizzagate 2.0. Almost exactly the same scheme. There are pictures of him where they claim he is smoking crack. They are saying Hunter is the secret head of the family and controls Joe. They say Hunter used the office of the VP to make money for the whole family. That the Chinese have copies of the videos of Hunter sexually abusing children and are blackmailing him. It is essentially the Steele Dossiers + Pizzagate + QAnon all wrapped up in a depraved sandwich of projection. It is pure delusion and I feel filthy for wading through it.
And these stories aren't being just perpetrated by fringe people anymore on Reddit or Facebook. They are being pushed by right-wing MSM media people. Worse the whole lot of them are furious that the 'liberal media' is ignoring the laptop story. One thing is clear. This doesn't seem aimed at changing the election. Instead it feels like they are being whipped up right now. Some might believe the story will blow wide but it really is deep QAnon closed circle conspiracy theory nonsense. That all said, what is very unclear is a sense of scale to see how concerned we should be about it. However at first glance, the intensity feels off the charts right now.
Last edited by malchior on Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
