Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Defiant]

Forgive me for being confused. Lockdowns being only to protect the health care system reads very binary to me. There is a whole range of reasons to do lockdowns beyond that. I'll say it again, Europe largely had a fairly normal summer because they maintained restrictions longer and with more focus. Meanwhile we did whatever the fuck we did and the virus raged through the summer. And now is poised to come back even stronger.

This.

Part of the reason for the lockdowns was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. But there were other reasons, including to reduce deaths, increase out testing and contact tracing ability, develop a national strategy, increase out healthcare capabilities and supplies, develop treatments, deal with local outbreaks, and be better prepared for the second spike when fall came. And the results aren't a binary pass/fail, but a spectrum, and in these areas, we've mostly come off as worse off than most countries (and this, after having failed to prepare when we had more warning time before it hit us than most countries).

[LawBeefaroni]

Lockdowns reduce vectors. If bars are open, people will go. If they are closed, they won't.

It reduces hospital COVID+ census because it reduces infection rate. Win/win.

[Smoove_B]

That's an understandable feeling, but I don't think it's fair. The numbers were always going to get bad again in the fall. The Smooves of the world have been saying that all summer. The not-lockdown slowed COVID down, but it was never going to get rid of it. Not here, and not in Europe.

I'll wait to see if Smoove_B weighs in on this but I have a suspicion that putting too much weight on seasonality is potentially misleading.

Geez, got a little busy in here on a Monday morning...

I think the seasonality discussion was an "evolving topic", changing and updating as we moved from April/May into July/August and we didn't know much about the virus and were guessing. Remember, originally there was a belief (based on what we know about respiratory illnesses in general) that it would "re-emerge" in areas that hadn't been seeing cases and then rapidly spread. Considering that it never went away, it's a pointless exercise at this point. What remains is whether or not it will becomes seasonal (like influenza) in 2022 and beyond - presumably after we have a vaccination readily available. Short answer - no one knows.

Getting back to the flattening of the curve - yes, that was initially designed to help save the hospitals. However, the true reason we went on lockdown (broadly) was to buy time. Time to come up with a plan for how to test, trace and isolate people with the virus and to time to figure out how to come up with policies and rules (like mask wearing and limiting crowds) to minimize spread. For NY/NJ, that's what we did, and at least in NJ we had mixed success (IMHO). I have no idea what other states were doing, but my sense is (broadly), suggest that time wasn't spent coming up with plans or regulations. Or if they were, the plans or orders were very short term (because the virus respects calendars).

At no point did anyone believe we were going to get rid of the virus by locking down. However, we could have (and could have all summer) stamped it down to levels so low (using test, trace and isolate, masks, limit gatherings) that middle America might not be imploding right now. It's hard to say. NJ cases are increasing and we did (mostly) all the right stuff. Though unofficially I'm going to tell you that ~50% of the contacts refuse to cooperate in our state (fully or partially). When you can't trace contacts and get ahead of that period of communicability, the system falls to pieces. For a long time, testing was slowing everything down. Now it's the people and their refusal to share information.

Regardless, this Fall/Winter season is now going to be bad. Very bad. I guess it might depend on where you live (state, region), but the reports I'm seeing this morning are suggesting trouble is brewing. In short, an inability to address this at a federal level + strong belief that individual rights trump (yes) community rights = more infections, more death and more suffering. It's going to be bad because circulating virus levels were high enough all summer to tee us up for a bad Fall/Winter. Now that we know more about how the virus spreads, it's potentially much worse. Again, it's those casual/informal prolonged indoor contacts - families and friends hanging out. Holidays, birthday parties, social gatherings...whatever. And I already have heard from plenty of people (family, extended family, etc...) that they're not changing any plans for the holidays. And why should they? In their mind they did everything they wanted all summer and nothing happened. Why should the next 6 months be any different?

I mean...this is not good.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/13 ... 1691402240

Almost the whole country is in the "Uncontrolled Spread" category

While it's not perfect, the analogy of people like me (staying home, limited contact, mask wearing, etc...) is that we're currently the ones holding the umbrella during an insane downpour - and we've been doing it for almost 8 months now. Meanwhile, those around me that aren't doing anything but standing under my umbrella, wondering what the problem is - they're not getting wet. I'm getting tired.

[Paingod]

Every time I see one of those visual representations of Maine's low numbers, general mask compliance, and positive outlook leaves me feeling disconnected from what the rest of the country is going through. Life here seems like it has been hardly disrupted for a lot of us, save the food services industries and parents struggling to work with kids from home (which is now working back towards normal too).

Despite the optimistic outlook in the state, mask compliance stays very high in most places - which isn't something that's held true everywhere. In some places, people feel safe and get slack - so the virus bounces back.

I hope you're all staying safe.

[Defiant]

I mean...this is not good.

[LawBeefaroni]

And I already have heard from plenty of people (family, extended family, etc...) that they're not changing any plans for the holidays. And why should they? In their mind they did everything they wanted all summer and nothing happened. Why should the next 6 months be any different?

We aren't changing the plans we made in April, which were to make no plans to get together at all. It sucks but I look at it as, "we've given up a lot already, do we want to throw it all away by having that one gathering where someone gets sick?"

The most difficult is my sister and her kids. My kids miss their cousins terribly and zoom just doesn't cut it. No one in the group is high-risk. But we've agreed to stay safe. Right now we're looking at spring 2021 for an outdoor BBQ or something like that.

[Daehawk]

TN is deep red but you wouldn't know anything was unusual here from the amount of people going about the daily stuff and hardly any masks.

[Isgrimnur]

Every time I see one of those visual representations of Maine's low numbers, general mask compliance, and positive outlook leaves me feeling disconnected from what the rest of the country is going through. Life here seems like it has been hardly disrupted for a lot of us, save the food services industries and parents struggling to work with kids from home (which is now working back towards normal too).

Despite the optimistic outlook in the state, mask compliance stays very high in most places - which isn't something that's held true everywhere. In some places, people feel safe and get slack - so the virus bounces back.

I hope you're all staying safe.

How many shifts per week do you have to stand post on the barricades?

[Jeff V]

With virus raging at record levels, we've decided we can't attend a Halloween party this weekend, we won't host Football and Turkey Day and may not attend any gathering at all, and canceled plans to go to a restaurant for my wife's birthday (although she still has a friend lined up to sit the kids that night so I might have to find something else to do). I'm still expecting more cases to start creeping in at my son's school, but so far just a single one has been reported. We've also kept the kids out of extracurricular activities, my daughters dance class restarted a month ago, my son's Taekwondo last week.

[LawBeefaroni]

TN is deep red but you wouldn't know anything was unusual here from the amount of people going about the daily stuff and hardly any masks.

My parents live there and they send photos of their home remodel progress. None of the workers had masks (you'd think that woild be an easy sell to people removing drywall). I was like, "Uh, what the fuck?" They didn't want to have a confrontation with the contractor.


My parents wear masks but go out way too much. My dad just got food poisoning from scallops. In October in Tennessee.



Bad choices.

[Isgrimnur]

It is National Seafood Month.

[LawBeefaroni]

With virus raging at record levels, we've decided we can't attend a Halloween party this weekend, we won't host Football and Turkey Day and may not attend any gathering at all, and canceled plans to go to a restaurant for my wife's birthday (although she still has a friend lined up to sit the kids that night so I might have to find something else to do). I'm still expecting more cases to start creeping in at my son's school, but so far just a single one has been reported. We've also kept the kids out of extracurricular activities, my daughters dance class restarted a month ago, my son's Taekwondo last week.

We're going to host a Halloween costume showing for all the kids in the family virtually. Should be fun. Drop in and out, kids chat and show off, aunts and uncles and grandparents drink heavily.

Thanksgiving, off the table. Christmas, off the table. Those are usually both large Midwestern tours for us.

The kids have been doing music lessons online. Karate has been in the park but that's probably going to start winding down now. They will start offering "distanced" indoor classes, not sure how I feel about that. I think you can watch and participate online, we may have to go that route.

Regular school is still 100% online for the 5th grader, 100% in person for the pre-Ker.

[telcta]

Looking at our town guidelines for Halloween activities lists out what to avoid and other lower risk activities to consider. One thing to avoid is...

Trunk-or-treat events where cars gather in a large parking lot and allow children to move from car to car to collect candy.

I never heard of that before.

[Little Raven]

They're HUGE here in Austin. Some people really go all out too - they make stages out of the back of their trucks, or set up tents and trailers to be mini haunted houses and dioramas. People set up fog machines, lighting fixtures and massive stereos.

Anything for a harvest festival, I suppose.

[Defiant]

So basically....

[Skinypupy]

Looking at our town guidelines for Halloween activities lists out what to avoid and other lower risk activities to consider. One thing to avoid is...

Trunk-or-treat events where cars gather in a large parking lot and allow children to move from car to car to collect candy.

I never heard of that before.

Trunk-or-Treats are big here as well. That's probably all we'll do this year.

[Daehawk]

lol that was my thought as well.

None of the workers had masks (you'd think that woild be an easy sell to people removing drywall).

As a younger guy even in the 80s it was common sense to wear some kind of mask when dealing with sheetrock. Dont want that shit in your lungs.

[telcta]

They're HUGE here in Austin. Some people really go all out too - they make stages out of the back of their trucks, or set up tents and trailers to be mini haunted houses and dioramas. People set up fog machines, lighting fixtures and massive stereos.

Anything for a harvest festival, I suppose.

That sounds like a blast. I need to get out more, or have some kids. Our little budgerigar doesn't really do a lot, but we love him.

[Smoove_B]

"The next six to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic," via Dr. Osterholm (trusted source) on the current situation:

Osterholm highlighted the 70,000 cases of Covid-19 reported on Friday, which matched the largest number seen during the peak of the pandemic. Between now and the holidays, the US will see numbers "much, much larger than even the 67 to 75,000 cases," he said.

I get a real sense there isn't a full appreciation for how bad things are. Funny how Trump is assaulting science this morning then, eh?

Osterholm, however, said the lack of a coordinated government response is hampering efforts to stem the pandemic.
"So, what we have right now is a major problem in messaging," he said. "People don't know what to believe, and that's one of our huge challenges going forward, is we've got to get the message to the public that reflects the science and reflects reality."

[malchior]

If Biden wins, I can't wait for the Republicans to start complaining about his response. If he doesn't, well the virus will still be a top concern but it'll just get worse and worse.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

@Smoove: A question about viruses doing well in winter months. Is that due to some biological effect of cold weather on the virus or is it mainly due to people socializing more indoors as it gets colder? Or, maybe the cold knocks down the immune system a bit?

[Jeff V]

Looking at our town guidelines for Halloween activities lists out what to avoid and other lower risk activities to consider. One thing to avoid is...

Trunk-or-treat events where cars gather in a large parking lot and allow children to move from car to car to collect candy.

I never heard of that before.

Trunk-or-Treats are big here as well. That's probably all we'll do this year.

It's part of the business trick-or-treat this weekend in my town. There are 4-5 different business districts participating in a door-to-door thing, then the trunk-or-treat in a movie theater lot last year had all sorts of public and other utility vehicles, police cars, paramedic meat wagons, fire trucks, etc.

[Smoove_B]

@Smoove: A question about viruses doing well in winter months. Is that due to some biological effect of cold weather on the virus or is it mainly due to people socializing more indoors as it gets colder? Or, maybe the cold knocks down the immune system a bit?

Broadly, it's a change in the environment - cooler, drier air makes it easier for the droplets (and airborne particulates) to persist. Add that to the indoor heating season (drying out the indoor air) and the increase in likelihood of people spending times in close-quarters indoors and it's a recipe for trouble.

That time there was a weird connection between public health, infectious diseases and atmospheric science.

Regardless, so much is still conjecture. I don't know that the same level of study has been done on coronaviruses and how humidity impacts infectiousness. But indoor close contact seems like a red flag.

[Daehawk]

Around the age of 10 me and my cousin were costumed up and taken to the local mall's treat or treat party. I thought that was the weirdest thing to go there instead of out door to door. At least I never had to go again.

[Little Raven]

@Smoove: A question about viruses doing well in winter months. Is that due to some biological effect of cold weather on the virus or is it mainly due to people socializing more indoors as it gets colder? Or, maybe the cold knocks down the immune system a bit?

Not smoove, but I did some research on this earlier, and the short answer is....we're not exactly sure.

The pattern is rock solid around much of the world - cold weather + lower humidity = more respiratory viruses - except in the tropics. Tropical areas tend to see relatively stable levels of virus activity, though they sometimes get spikes in the rainy season.

The why is complicated, and there are a lot of theories.

• Cold weather tends to drive people indoors, with less circulated air and closer quarters.
• Some research indicates that cold air causes our mucus membranes to be more vulnerable to viral penetration.
• Some research indicates that many respiratory viruses survive longer in colder temperatures. (jury is still out on COVID, AFAIK)
• Some research indicates that humans tend to suffer lower Vitamin D levels during the winter, and that makes them more vulnerable to infection.

There are more, I'm sure. But while all of these have some supporting evidence, none of them really explain everything very well. Why is flu season sometimes short and sometimes long? Why do cities that see crowded indoor living all year round still experience this pattern? Why do the tropics behave so differently?

We're still working on it.

[Kraken]

Fauci's a disaster. “People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots, all these idiots who got it wrong,” Trump said on the call. “People are tired of Covid.”

I'm tired of Covid, too, so can we please stop talking about it and lock this thread?

[Blackhawk]

Looking at our town guidelines for Halloween activities lists out what to avoid and other lower risk activities to consider. One thing to avoid is...

Trunk-or-treat events where cars gather in a large parking lot and allow children to move from car to car to collect candy.

I never heard of that before.

The town my son's high school has a Halloween parade every year. It's usually an event for the band, with everyone costumed. It was cancelled because it was too risky. Trunk-or-treats are also considered high-risk and are advised against by the state. Naturally, the school band director found a private-run trunk-or-treat for the band to play at, because he is an insane fuckwit who thinks that precautions are just inconveniences to be ignored.

And it is an official event, so it's required.

[noxiousdog]

Looking at our town guidelines for Halloween activities lists out what to avoid and other lower risk activities to consider. One thing to avoid is...

Trunk-or-treat events where cars gather in a large parking lot and allow children to move from car to car to collect candy.

I never heard of that before.

The town my son's high school has a Halloween parade every year. It's usually an event for the band, with everyone costumed. It was cancelled because it was too risky. Trunk-or-treats are also considered high-risk and are advised against by the state. Naturally, the school band director found a private-run trunk-or-treat for the band to play at, because he is an insane fuckwit who thinks that precautions are just inconveniences to be ignored.

And it is an official event, so it's required.

We all have our own risk levels, but I have a hard time seeing where an outdoor event even in groups of 5-10 could be considered risky. There were no significant outbreaks linked to the George Floyd (et. al.) protests. That was thousands of people; not a few in a parking lot.

[raydude]

Looking at our town guidelines for Halloween activities lists out what to avoid and other lower risk activities to consider. One thing to avoid is...

Trunk-or-treat events where cars gather in a large parking lot and allow children to move from car to car to collect candy.

I never heard of that before.

The town my son's high school has a Halloween parade every year. It's usually an event for the band, with everyone costumed. It was cancelled because it was too risky. Trunk-or-treats are also considered high-risk and are advised against by the state. Naturally, the school band director found a private-run trunk-or-treat for the band to play at, because he is an insane fuckwit who thinks that precautions are just inconveniences to be ignored.

And it is an official event, so it's required.

Do your kids get graded on it? If not, fuck it I say.

[Blackhawk]

Missing required events is reflected in their grade. Performances are part of the class.

[Paingod]

Missing required events is reflected in their grade. Performances are part of the class.

"I'll take a C if I need to in protest, I'm sure college recruiters will understand why when I tell them."

[Combustible Lemur]

Missing required events is reflected in their grade. Performances are part of the class.

I can't speak to your district, but there's no way in hell i could punish a kid who didn't show up to a production I sidestepped around state covid regulations to set up.

Thats very much a go above his head situation.

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[Zaxxon]

Missing required events is reflected in their grade. Performances are part of the class.

I can't speak to your district, but there's no way in hell i could punish a kid who didn't show up to a production I sidestepped around state covid regulations to set up.

Thats very much a go above his head situation.

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This. Minus the Tapatalk sig.

[pr0ner]

Fairfax County's teacher's union is asking for schools to remain closed for the entire 2020/21 school year. One of the metrics they're asking for as a requirement to reopen is ZERO community spread over a 14 day period. I am not sure how realistic such a requirement really is.

https://twitter.com/rorycooper/status/1 ... 7845580800

[malchior]

One of the metrics they're asking for as a requirement to reopen is ZERO community spread over a 14 day period. I am not sure how realistic such a requirement really is.

I see this requirement a lot lately. I agree it is probably too high a bar. However, as long as there is community spread there is a risk it'll get to the school and possibly shut it down anyway. So whatever plan is put in place should aim for it but be flexible enough to adapt. Several towns in my area are dealing with this including my MIL's district.

[ImLawBoy]

Sounds like an opening salvo in negotiations. Pretty typical to ask for more than you're likely to get.

[Combustible Lemur]

Sounds like an opening salvo in negotiations. Pretty typical to ask for more than you're likely to get.

We went from basically 0 for two months to quintoupling in two weeks. So i see both sides. Zero tracked community spread is (or was) feasible. Plan for when it isnt.

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[Smoove_B]

One of the metrics they're asking for as a requirement to reopen is ZERO community spread over a 14 day period. I am not sure how realistic such a requirement really is.

I don't know enough about what's happening in VA to fully comment, but my initial take is that this is a statement commenting on a potential lack of leadership at a local/county level as it relates to creating policies and regulations to minimize spread (mask use, limit gatherings, etc...). So maybe what ILB is saying, they're starting at zero to get local/state officials to come to the table - because they know when schools say they're going fully remote for the next year, parents are going to start making calls to state and local officials to complain.

[Blackhawk]

Missing required events is reflected in their grade. Performances are part of the class.

I can't speak to your district, but there's no way in hell i could punish a kid who didn't show up to a production I sidestepped around state covid regulations to set up.

Thats very much a go above his head situation.

Over his head is a school administrator and health department who seem to agree that COVID is just overhyped hoopla and shouldn't get in the way of good, old-fashioned larnin'. I've butted heads with the district already over COVID. They absolutely have the band director's back.

[Paingod]

Missing required events is reflected in their grade. Performances are part of the class.

I can't speak to your district, but there's no way in hell i could punish a kid who didn't show up to a production I sidestepped around state covid regulations to set up.

Thats very much a go above his head situation.

Over his head is a school administrator and health department who seem to agree that COVID is just overhyped hoopla and shouldn't get in the way of good, old-fashioned larnin'. I've butted heads with the district already over COVID. They absolutely have the band director's back.

Would it be fun for the media to find out the school wants to push around a super-spreader event that flies in the face of state mandates? Maybe yes? Any local liberal papers or sites?