Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[Jaymann]

But, his laptop.

[Paingod]

However at first glance, the intensity feels off the charts right now.

Never go near a frightened, hurt, and cornered animal if you can help it.

Their golden boy is being slaughtered in the polls right now and the nation appears to be turning out in droves unseen before, despite the pandemic. The writing is on the wall, and it's in blood.

Instead of the rise of the Trump Reich, they're watching the sand castle getting toppled by the tide and are about to start throwing a tantrum of epic proportions.

[malchior]

However at first glance, the intensity feels off the charts right now.

Never go near a frightened, hurt, and cornered animal if you can help it.

Their golden boy is being slaughtered in the polls right now and the nation appears to be turning out in droves unseen before, despite the pandemic. The writing is on the wall, and it's in blood.

Instead of the rise of the Trump Reich, they're watching the sand castle getting toppled by the tide and are about to start throwing a tantrum of epic proportions.

This is what I worry about. Is this a collective tantrum or are they being riled up for other purposes?

[Paingod]

This is what I worry about. Is this a collective tantrum or are they being riled up for other purposes?

I'm with tantrum. Anything else will actually mean effort. More than bluster and screaming at the TV.

There may be another "militia" group that get slapped for idiotic plans, but there's not going to be some sort of mass uprising. These people aren't being starved out of their homes, chased down the street, or driven out of the country. The most they'll do is surge on Twitter and Facebook about how disgusting and unfair it all is.

Avoid those places, along with Faux News, and you should be okay.

[malchior]

I'm with tantrum. Anything else will actually mean effort. More than bluster and screaming at the TV.

I hope so.

There may be another "militia" group that get slapped for idiotic plans, but there's not going to be some sort of mass uprising. These people aren't being starved out of their homes, chased down the street, or driven out of the country. The most they'll do is surge on Twitter and Facebook about how disgusting and unfair it all is.

Hunger and evictions are a real problem exacerbating the COVID-19 and potential electoral crises, if they arise.

Avoid those places, along with Faux News, and you should be okay.

We'll see. From what I'm seeing, the risk may be much higher than we think.

Edit: As an aside there is an invisible war being waged against QAnon. 8Chan and QAnon linked sites -- according to Kreb -- were taken down this morning. There has a consistent effort to take down the heart of QAnon/8chan hosting by DDOS attack. The attacks are being performed by grey hat hacker groups. It also appears that Twitter cut the heart out of a large botnet with Donald Trump Jr. whining that the algorithms are against him now. LOL.

[Grifman]

Interesting story on Biden advertising strategy and how he is using national as buys to widen the playing field:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/1 ... nts-430011

[Holman]

The right is losing its mind about this Hunter Biden stuff. There is a tweet going around tonight that I will not link that re-cast Hunter Biden as the force behind the Pizzagate 2.0. Almost exactly the same scheme. There are pictures of him where they claim he is smoking crack. They are saying Hunter is the secret head of the family and controls Joe. They say Hunter used the office of the VP to make money for the whole family. That the Chinese have copies of the videos of Hunter sexually abusing children and are blackmailing him. It is essentially the Steele Dossiers + Pizzagate + QAnon all wrapped up in a depraved sandwich of projection. It is pure delusion and I feel filthy for wading through it.

And these stories aren't being just perpetrated by fringe people anymore on Reddit or Facebook. They are being pushed by right-wing MSM media people. Worse the whole lot of them are furious that the 'liberal media' is ignoring the laptop story. One thing is clear. This doesn't seem aimed at changing the election. Instead it feels like they are being whipped up right now. Some might believe the story will blow wide but it really is deep QAnon closed circle conspiracy theory nonsense. That all said, what is very unclear is a sense of scale to see how concerned we should be about it. However at first glance, the intensity feels off the charts right now.

The Director of National Intelligence has just come out claiming that there is no evidence linking the laptop to a Russian Disinformation Campaign.

They're going all-in with this. It's going to be so ugly. Already is.

[malchior]

The Director of National Intelligence has just come out claiming that there is no evidence linking the laptop to a Russian Disinformation Campaign.

I saw that. Ratcliffe is a Trumpist stooge so I wouldn't be surprised by flat out lying about this. I have been trying to track down a reference he made about a statement by Schiff that he reacted to. As an aside Maria Bartiromo has completely thrown her reputation on a fire.

They're going all-in with this. It's going to be so ugly. Already is.

There is a full-blown misinformation/influence war being conducted right now. You can see the edges of it if you know where to look on the Internet. For example, Microsoft announced they took down a Trickbot/Ryuk botnet meant to influence the election but it probably was ineffective.

There is a growing corpus of Threat Intelligence -- that I can't link to because the two feeds I have access to are private paid feeds -- that links cyberattacks this year to large scale misinformation campaigns. And many are likely tied to the Russians. In fact, it is looking like some of the massive uptick of ransomware activity we have been seeing this year might actually be partially cover for the election attacks. They may be a screen for the mainline attacks. *And* they can self-fund to a degree by getting payouts.

[LawBeefaroni]

This is what I worry about. Is this a collective tantrum or are they being riled up for other purposes?

I'm with tantrum. Anything else will actually mean effort. More than bluster and screaming at the TV.

There may be another "militia" group that get slapped for idiotic plans, but there's not going to be some sort of mass uprising. These people aren't being starved out of their homes, chased down the street, or driven out of the country. The most they'll do is surge on Twitter and Facebook about how disgusting and unfair it all is.

Avoid those places, along with Faux News, and you should be okay.

It won't be organized but you'll see more and more individual acts that go beyond tantrum. This is being cast as the ultimate good vs evil. In the name of saving trafficked children, nothing is off the table. People need meaning, this gives it to them, that's why it's so powerful.

[malchior]

It won't be organized but you'll see more and more individual acts that go beyond tantrum. This is being cast as the ultimate good vs evil. In the name of saving trafficked children, nothing is off the table. People need meaning, this gives it to them, that's why it's so powerful.

I think part of it is that it's hard to see patterns without wading into all the evidence. I'm soaking in this shit because of work. Almost everywhere I go now discussions where QAnon comes up - say in this Krebs post about the QAnon take downs - has a comment pile on by a few crazies spouting this pedophile shit. I don't even read them anymore because -- its always the same crazy shit -- but I'm mentally tallying them and they are legion. Read the comments here and go look at a Twitter thread, or Reddit, or your local newspaper, etc. It's everywhere. This isn't going away soon.

[malchior]

WTF is this?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1318282942762934272

[Octavious]

I really need this election to be over with. If there's a god he will get spanked in the election and all the aholes on FB will have to go slink back into their basements. I'm not confident at all that this will actually happen.

[LawBeefaroni]

I'm not confident at all that this will actually happen.

Will not happen. The shit is out of the bag. No putting it back.

[Holman]

WTF is this?

CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale says that in the larger context this was presented more as a hypothetical than a confession. He's always a pretty accurate observer.

[malchior]

WTF is this?

CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale says that in the larger context this was presented more as a hypothetical than a confession. He's always a pretty accurate observer.

Why does it being a hypothetical make it better? A question only possible in this shittiest of time lines.

[Holman]

WTF is this?

CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale says that in the larger context this was presented more as a hypothetical than a confession. He's always a pretty accurate observer.

Why does it being a hypothetical make it better?

It's "I could do this but I don't because I'm not corrupt like Joe Biden."

Convincing, I know.

[El Guapo]

[Skinypupy]

WTF is this?

CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale says that in the larger context this was presented more as a hypothetical than a confession. He's always a pretty accurate observer.

That's exactly how I read it.

Didn't make it any better.

[Kraken]

I'm not confident at all that this will actually happen.

Will not happen. The shit is out of the bag. No putting it back.

Steve Bannon said yesterday that if trump loses, he'll run again in 2024. And if you can't believe Bannon....

This is why I hope Biden's justice department will do its job.

[Holman]

There's no way Trump runs in 2024, but there's an even chance that the Trump base elevates Don Jr for it.

[Scraper]

There's no way Trump runs in 2024, but there's an even chance that the Trump base elevates Don Jr for it.

Don Jr looks like a coked up car salesman. No way he makes it through a primary.

[msteelers]

There's no way Trump runs in 2024, but there's an even chance that the Trump base elevates Don Jr for it.

Don Jr looks like a coked up car salesman. No way he makes it through a primary.

We said the same thing about Sr.

[Jaymann]

I fervently hope the Repugnicans are foolish enough to run Trump or his spawn again. It will motivate the opposition like nobody's business.

[Blackhawk]

The real danger is that they run a Quiet Trump. Someone with Trump's methods and intentions, but without the bluster.

[Unagi]

The real danger is that they run a Quiet Trump. Someone with Trump's methods and intentions, but without the bluster.

Trump’s method -is- bluster.

He’s the deplorable whisperer.

[Paingod]

The real danger is that they run a Quiet Trump. Someone with Trump's methods and intentions, but without the bluster.

Trump’s method -is- bluster.

He’s the deplorable whisperer.

I agree. A low-key lurking Trumpista wouldn't send his followers into a frothing orgy of hate like they do now. They need the fire and fury to stoke their self-righteousness. Take that away and leave the meaning and you've lost the magic. That that away and scandals like sexual assault, sleeping with porn stars, mocking handicapped people, etc may actually harm him.

They'll still vote for him, but they won't have the same fervor.

[Holman]

There are already lots of "quiet Trumps" in office, Bill Barr being the epitome. All the old norms of public service vs naked partisanship have been thoroughly jettisoned, and it will be very difficult to bring them back.

Trump was just one loud asshole. The arson and national vandalism he oversaw took a whole party to carry through.

[LordMortis]

The arson and national vandalism he oversaw took a whole party to carry through.

So much this. He really did drive the point home, though. While I was waiting for the GOP to implode, I still was never blind with partisanism until DJT and watching his will be expressed through the GOP or the GOP's will to be expressed through him. Either way, as much I hated my state legislature and McConnell's senate, I was willing to accept there were single GOP representatives that could be worth considering. 2015 saw the last dirt thrown on that pile, though. The games played with the election around the Supreme Court leading to November 2016 were the last straw.

[Blackhawk]

I'm not talking about the populist elements of Trumpism. I'm talking about the blatant corruption and hand-waving of norms in order to 'win.' I'm talking about Trump with political savvy. I'm talking about McConnell clone in the white house.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Currently in line to vote. This is the 2nd day that early voting has been open at this location, but it was open at another nearby location for the last two weeks. Nevertheless, it’s a pretty long line, especially for the middle of a Tuesday afternoon. I’ guessing it’ll take about an hour to get vote. But, all in all, seems pretty well organized and everyone is wearing a mask, so I can’t complain too much. And it’s encouraging to see so many people voting.

[Zaxxon]

Currently in line to vote. This is the 2nd day that early voting has been open at this location, but it was open at another nearby location for the last two weeks. Nevertheless, it’s a pretty long line, especially for the middle of a Tuesday afternoon. I’ guessing it’ll take about an hour to get vote. But, all in all, seems pretty well organized and everyone is wearing a mask, so I can’t complain too much. And it’s encouraging to see so many people voting.

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

[malchior]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

[El Guapo]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

In terms of voter suppression, there's a potential irony insofar as it seems like there's a real chance that the people left to vote on election day may be overwhelmingly Republican / Trumpist. Which means that if there's hugely long lines on election day, it could be Republicans who are disproportionately discouraged from voting as a result.

[Zaxxon]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

I would take the over on that estimate, though your point (and Guap's, awesomely) stands.

[Jaymann]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

In terms of voter suppression, there's a potential irony insofar as it seems like there's a real chance that the people left to vote on election day may be overwhelmingly Republican / Trumpist. Which means that if there's hugely long lines on election day, it could be Republicans who are disproportionately discouraged from voting as a result.

Oh, sweet Karma.

[coopasonic]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

I would take the over on that estimate, though your point (and Guap's, awesomely) stands.

Texas is still leading the way at 51% with 10 days of early voting left.

[Kurth]

Voted over the weekend. After living in Oregon and enjoying voting by mail, it's definitely the only way to go. No lines. Vote when it's convenient. There's no reason not to do it (fraud is a joke) except to suppress votes.

[LawBeefaroni]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

In terms of voter suppression, there's a potential irony insofar as it seems like there's a real chance that the people left to vote on election day may be overwhelmingly Republican / Trumpist. Which means that if there's hugely long lines on election day, it could be Republicans who are disproportionately discouraged from voting as a result.

Oh, sweet Karma.

Doubt it. If that is indeed the case, you can bet Trump/GOP will be calling shenanigans somehow or some way. It'll be ugly. What we want is smooth voting for everyone on EDay. Probably won't happen but it would be the best outcome.

[LordMortis]

What we want is smooth voting for everyone on EDay. Probably won't happen but it would be the best outcome.

Absolutely. There has been electoral outrage and screams of tampering and impending fraud ever since no reason absentee ballots were passed in Michigan in 2018 (and from the news of the battles in court a number of other states as well)). Screams that demanded 2016 was somehow both a fraudulent whammy pulled by the Clintons and illegal aliens and dead voters and a victory for the sitting POTUS. By all means we need a blue landslide but it should happen from a legit smooth untainted process in spite of voter suppression not because of it, even if GOP voter suppression ironically suppresses GOP votes.

[El Guapo]

This morning we crossed over 25% of the total 2016 vote count already cast in this election. Foregone conclusion that 2020's early voting count will set a new record by a wide margin. It'll be interesting to see the total including election day and how that total compares to 2016.

Yeah looks like we'll coast in around 35-40% early voting levels overall. It also means that the actual election day is incredibly important still.

In terms of voter suppression, there's a potential irony insofar as it seems like there's a real chance that the people left to vote on election day may be overwhelmingly Republican / Trumpist. Which means that if there's hugely long lines on election day, it could be Republicans who are disproportionately discouraged from voting as a result.

Oh, sweet Karma.

Doubt it. If that is indeed the case, you can bet Trump/GOP will be calling shenanigans somehow or some way. It'll be ugly. What we want is smooth voting for everyone on EDay. Probably won't happen but it would be the best outcome.

Well, Trump's going to be calling shenanigans regardless (don't forget that he called shenanigans in 2016, when he *won*). But people who get discouraged from voting because of the length of the lines are disqualified regardless - there's no way to cause them to be counted after the fact.

Now, this is speculative, and I doubt that any impact from that would be greater than the impact of intentional GOP suppression shenanigans, but it's one effect that could point the other direction.