Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:52 pm

Here's an easy to read article on mask wearing and projections:

In what they describe as the worst-case scenario, they project that COVID-19 deaths could exceed a million between September 2020 and February 2021 if what they call "the current pattern of easing" restrictions continues in states.

In a second scenario that they think is more likely, they say 511,000 could die between September and February under the assumption that "states would once again shut down social interaction and some economic activity" for six weeks once deaths reach a certain threshold per million residents.

There's a ton of assumptions in their calculations, but it's still something to consider.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:14 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Masks offer minor (though >0) protection to the wearer.

Is this still true? I thought I read somewhere that wearing masks likely reduces the number of virons that may get through, thus potentially reducing the severity of the symptoms.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:18 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:14 pm Is this still true? I thought I read somewhere that wearing masks likely reduces the number of virons that may get through, thus potentially reducing the severity of the symptoms.

There was some question about that over the summer, but I believe the most recent stuff I read suggested there's no reason to believe it's true. I think it was tied to the infectious dose, namely we still don't know how many virons are necessary to make someone sick and/or if there's a strong dose/response relationship in the host (i.e. more virons = more likely to get sick, more severe sickness).

I'll see if I can find that report - I want to say I read it earlier this week but time is getting weird.

EDIT: I'm not going crazy! It was yesterday!

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:53 pm

Smoove_B wrote:
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:14 pm Is this still true? I thought I read somewhere that wearing masks likely reduces the number of virons that may get through, thus potentially reducing the severity of the symptoms.
There was some question about that over the summer, but I believe the most recent stuff I read suggested there's no reason to believe it's true. I think it was tied to the infectious dose, namely we still don't know how many virons are necessary to make someone sick and/or if there's a strong dose/response relationship in the host (i.e. more virons = more likely to get sick, more severe sickness).

I'll see if I can find that report - I want to say I read it earlier this week but time is getting weird.

EDIT: I'm not going crazy! It was yesterday!

Interesting, although it seems that letter is mainly arguing for caution until more evidence is gathered; that is, there currently isn’t enough evidence to say one way or another whether masks reduce the initial viral load.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:03 pm

Yeah, I think that's correct. So much more information is needed and now that we're slipping back into emergency response, I don't know how much (if any) additional research is going to get sidelined. I saw something else today suggesting the number of cases in Alaska are surging with the theory it's related to temperature. If that's the case (and there really is a temp/humidity relationship like there is for influenza) then we're truly in uncharted waters again.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:59 pm

I was hoping to save a little cash next month. Looks like it will go for toilet paper and hand sanitizer. I haven't seen Lysol spray all year.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:11 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:03 pm Yeah, I think that's correct. So much more information is needed and now that we're slipping back into emergency response, I don't know how much (if any) additional research is going to get sidelined. I saw something else today suggesting the number of cases in Alaska are surging with the theory it's related to temperature. If that's the case (and there really is a temp/humidity relationship like there is for influenza) then we're truly in uncharted waters again.

Ah, but think of the data we're generating!

Europe is soiling its undergarments, and we should be too...but we're too smart for that.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:52 am

To put the freeloader bit another way:

There are two groups. The non-masks and the masks.

The masks are effectively protecting the non-masks to a degree by sacrificing large parts of their lifestyles.

At the same time, the non-masks are benefiting without contributing while reducing the effectiveness of the masks' efforts. The non-masks are the reason that the masks have to keep sacrificing to protect them. They're doubling the burden on the masks while still reaping the benefits, and at the same time are reducing the benefits for everyone.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:48 am

I don't feel that wearing a mask is any level of sacrifice, and that's coming from an extreme asthmatic. I do not experience the same troubles that some claim are caused by masks. Fortunately I don't perform much in the way of physical labor where a mask may actually cause some amount of discomfort.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:58 am

Pence's office is experiencing an outbreak, with FIVE close aides (including VP's chief of staff) testing positive.

WH says Pence will keep working and going to rallies because hey, why not?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:00 am

In fact they're just going to give up and pray for a quick vaccine.

https://twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/1320 ... 62850?s=20

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:26 am

Im skeptical of a vaccine. I like to think of it as worst case with COVID. A vaccine will not work, it keeps spreading. You can get reinfected and the Earths population continues to dwindle. Some get it , some live, some die. Repeat.

Richard Quest: After recovering from Covid-19, I thought I was safe. Now my antibodies are waning

Whenever the question of catching it again has come up since, I airily and hubristically said, "Oh, I've had it, and have antibodies to prove it." At least I did until Friday, when my third antibody test came back negative.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:26 am

The Meal wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:48 am I don't feel that wearing a mask is any level of sacrifice, and that's coming from an extreme asthmatic. I do not experience the same troubles that some claim are caused by masks. Fortunately I don't perform much in the way of physical labor where a mask may actually cause some amount of discomfort.

Nor do I, but I included lifestyle changes, too. Not visiting relatives, not going out, not socializing in person, cancelling holidays, cancelling vacations, delaying needed but not urgent projects, etc. People who voluntarily wear masks do those things as well, while the non-masks generally do not (unless it is forced on them.) I suppose I used 'masks' as a sort of shorthand for 'making an effort.'

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:50 am

He’s back to claiming that doctors and hospitals are intentionally falsifying COVID cases in order to make more money.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RepsForBiden ... 0831827969

Donald Trump just attacked American Doctors and said they are fabricating the Covid-19 death count for money.

There’s no bottom.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:03 pm

So will this week have him making claims teachers are all conspiring to make this seem worse so they can stay home? That seems entirely plausible given this doctor claim.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:06 pm

Yeah, in both cases it reveals a gross misunderstanding of the financials involved...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:59 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:06 pm Yeah, in both cases it reveals a gross misunderstanding of the financials involved...

I don't think there was even an attempt to understand in the first place. This is just malicious lying because his brain is broken.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:51 pm

Smoove_B wrote:So will this week have him making claims teachers are all conspiring to make this seem worse so they can stay home? That seems entirely plausible given this doctor claim.

Haven’t we been seeing that claim for a few months already?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:21 pm

Just got around to the Meadows video. I think this is more than just giving up. There is a motive here. The Republicans know they are about to get smashed to bits so assholes like Meadows seem to be setting up to cash out post-Trump. One way to frame it is against the Koch attempt to get 'herd immunity' science to be the public policy of the land. I can't help but frame this as the administration essentially implementing that approach without a robust public discussion about the policy. They are putting the interests of the wealthiest above the health of the American people. Especially since a vast majority of the dying are not White. In other words, #FYIGM.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:27 pm

I have a hard time not thinking they are also deliberately sabotaging what they know will be a Biden presidency.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:11 pm

That's definitely part of it. Senate aides already said that was why McConnell wouldn't pass any aid on another front. They are almost certainly keep to sabotage any hope of recovery under Biden. It'd hurt their chance to return and finish the job of achieving unitary power.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:49 pm

msteelers wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:51 pm
Smoove_B wrote:So will this week have him making claims teachers are all conspiring to make this seem worse so they can stay home? That seems entirely plausible given this doctor claim.
Haven’t we been seeing that claim for a few months already?

I've heard it expressed generally, but I don't think I've heard Trump using it as a point during one of his hate rallies, no. Granted, I don't follow his every move so maybe I missed something. I now that broadly the tone from teachers went from they were heroes in March and April to they were lazy union communists in July and August.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:25 pm

Real life or The Onion? Impossible to tell any more.

The Trump administration planned to give Santa Claus performers early access to a coronavirus vaccine in exchange for their participation in a $250 million PSA.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:46 pm

It's just non-stop quid-pro-quo with Trump, eh?

As part of the plan, a top Trump administration official wanted the Santa performers to promote the benefits of a Covid-19 vaccination and, in exchange, offered them early vaccine access ahead of the general public, according to audio recordings. Those who perform as Mrs. Claus and elves also would have been included.

I absolutely think they're doing everything they can now to burn everything to the ground, knowing full-well Trump's loss is highly likely. They need to drag America to new lows before the hand off so they can spend day one in January railing against Biden.

A reminder from Dr. Fauci:

"We will know whether a vaccine is safe and effective by the end of November, beginning of December," the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said. "The amount of doses that will be available in December will not certainly be enough to vaccinate everybody -- you'll have to wait several months into 2021."

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:13 pm

https://twitter.com/francismmaxwell/sta ... 0620665860

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:46 pm

I sort of wish pundits would focus less on the incompetence and instead more on the malevolence. Much of this is intentional and they shouldn't overlook that.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:07 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:50 am He’s back to claiming that doctors and hospitals are intentionally falsifying COVID cases in order to make more money.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RepsForBiden ... 0831827969

Donald Trump just attacked American Doctors and said they are fabricating the Covid-19 death count for money.

There’s no bottom.

MAGA masks now? Finally? Too late, dumbass.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:18 pm If Trump sold branded MAGA masks for $45 on his website, we'd be out of this in no time.

Seriously, I think that's all it would take.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 11:36 am There should be two mandates.

1. You are required to wear masks.
2. You are prohibited from wearing face covering with camouflage, American flags, Trump slogans or Latin phrases about war.

Everyone wins. Compliant individuals would wear masks. [Mask]Protestors would wear face coverings with camouflage, American flags, Trump slogans or Latin phrases about war.

Also, get the fuck out of here that doctors make money by falsely or misleadingly reporting COVID cases. Trump will believe and repeat anything.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:18 pm

Im surprised he doesn't try to sell Melania's bath water.

Maybe if he marketed it as a cure for intelligence.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:45 pm

Daehawk wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:18 pm Im surprised he doesn't try to sell Melania's bath water.

Which Melania?

https://twitter.com/meiselasb/status/13 ... 20240.html

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:01 pm

That is creepy af.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:21 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:07 pm Also, get the fuck out of here that doctors make money by falsely or misleadingly reporting COVID cases. Trump will believe and repeat anything.

There's no reason to think he believes it (altho he might). He has been an abject failure at Covid. Biden's running on trump's failure at Covid. Therefore, Covid is a hoax by China and the libs. It's a better strategy than trying to defend an indefensible record.

One hopes it's a losing strategy, but one doesn't entirely trust American voters.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:00 pm

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320508825045213185

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320512247412723713

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:54 pm

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/13204 ... 69089?s=20

Spoiler:

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:09 am

It’s awful here, yet none of the anti-maske Trumpers care one whit. No behavior change, still howling about freedom whenever anyone asks them to mask up or distance, all activities full speed ahead, etc.

I don’t want to leave my damn house right now.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:29 am

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:09 am It’s awful here, yet none of the anti-maske Trumpers care one whit. No behavior change, still howling about freedom whenever anyone asks them to mask up or distance, all activities full speed ahead, etc.

I don’t want to leave my damn house right now.

Welcome to March in Michigan. I"m sorry. Also, I fear this will become welcome to November in Michigan as I watch the number go up the ladder. We'll see how well flattening the curve in spring and slow spread through summer, and better treatment now shows results in our autumn.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:02 am

Illinois sitrep:

This week, COVID-19 cases hit more than 400,000. CDC data shows Illinois was the second highest contributor after Texas.

While that is shocking, doctors said it does not tell the whole story.

“When you look at the cases per 100,000, we are much lower,” Hota said. “We’re about in the middle of the country.”

But that does not mean there is an excuse to relax. Physicians said while right now, hospitalizations are only slightly up, the next two to four weeks are crucial

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:46 am

Just in time for the election, hospitals are hitting capacity.

I swear, COVID-19 is the nature's judgment on Trump and the US for putting him there.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:10 pm

So apparently I missed this story, but on the Circus, one of the former CDC directors said that Pfizer was planning to cut corners on vaccine safety, that FDA Scientists called them out on it and Pfizer basically admitted it. They designed the trial for speed and the only way they could get an October release was not to accrue safety data.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:14 pm

Defiant wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:10 pm So apparently I missed this story, but on the Circus, one of the former CDC directors said that Pfizer was planning to cut corners on vaccine safety, that FDA Scientists called them out on it and Pfizer basically admitted it. They designed the trial for speed and the only way they could get an October release was not to accrue safety data.

Back in April or whenever they promised an October vaccine everyone knew they'd be cutting corners. There is no way to get it out that fast without sacrificing safe standard practices.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:21 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:14 pm
Defiant wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:10 pm So apparently I missed this story, but on the Circus, one of the former CDC directors said that Pfizer was planning to cut corners on vaccine safety, that FDA Scientists called them out on it and Pfizer basically admitted it. They designed the trial for speed and the only way they could get an October release was not to accrue safety data.
Back in April or whenever they promised an October vaccine everyone knew they'd be cutting corners. There is no way to get it out that fast without sacrificing safe standard practices.

There was talk about things like doing things concurrently when you would otherwise do them sequential, spending more to start preparing things early for things that might come to nothing , etc, which results in wasted spending, but that's not the same thing as not collecting safety data.