Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:23 pm

Get well soon!

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm

I kept expecting something ridiculous from Zubin Damania,, however, I think it more articulates what Little Raven and I were trying to express.

Short version, excess deaths by age from 25-64 are WAY up and this needs evaluation as it's unlikely COVID-19 can explain it. There needs to be some reasonable balance between lockdowns and open it all up and it seems very difficult to get traction on debating it.

Source Data

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:49 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm Short version, excess deaths by age from 25-64 are WAY up and this needs evaluation as it's unlikely COVID-19 can explain it. There needs to be some reasonable balance between lockdowns and open it all up and it seems very difficult to get traction on debating it.

It's so hard to say anymore because what's driving incidence in NY and NJ isn't the same as what's driving in Utah or North Dakota (I randomly picked those states (debate over lockdown). For example, locking down NJ (like we did back in April) likely wouldn't do much right now for us because it's not spreading from public, social contacts. However, lockdowns in other states where maskless prolonged contact is still occuring? That might make more sense. On the other hand, if we then take all those people now carrying it and force them into a lockdown mode, they're absolutely going to mingle privately (and with weather change, likely indoors) and the outbreak is going to continue.

This only work if we (collectively) wear masks in public, maintain distance and limit contact with people not in our households. This doesn't work if we wear masks in public and attend indoor private gatherings with people outside of our unit.

Going back to excess deaths, we're not going to figure that out for a long time, imho, at least definitively. The Washingon Post did a piece on it and found:

Outside analyses, including some by The Washington Post and researchers at Yale University, have found two main causes for excess deaths. Many probably were the result of covid-19, although they were not recorded that way on death certificates. Others are probably the result of deaths at home or in nursing homes from heart attacks, diabetes, strokes and Alzheimer’s disease, among people afraid to seek care in hospitals or unable to get it.

Overall, the CDC found that “excess deaths have occurred every week since March, 2020,” with a peak during the week of April 11 and another during the week ending Aug. 8. Those dates roughly coincide with the virus’s surge into the New York metro area near the start of the outbreak and a second major rise across the Sun Belt when many states reopened too soon in an effort to revive flagging economies.

Once again, I'm seeing an uptick in complaints online that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are down. A reminder that hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators and not how we should be making policy and protocol decisions. Assuming testing levels are appropriate, case numbers should be driving this process.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:53 pm

The president of Fox News and some of the network’s top anchors have all reportedly been advised to get tested for the coronavirus and to quarantine after being exposed to an individual who later tested positive for COVID-19. According to The New York Times, Fox News head Jay Wallace, and hosts Bret Baier, Martha MacCallum, Dana Perino, and Juan Williams were potentially exposed to someone with the coronavirus who rode with the group on a charter flight last week to New York from Nashville, the site of the second presidential debate.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news- ... 9-exposure

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:54 pm

Smoove_B wrote:Jesus. Crazy day. Get well, Kurth. As I'm sure you know, if your symptoms get worse notify emergency services immediately; don't delay.

Indeed.

Godspeed Kurth, hope things don’t get worse for you.

Unfortunately the COVID also invaded the RM9 household this morning. My wife developed a low fever yesterday and got tested this morning (our doctor had the 15-minute test on hand), and it came back positive.

She’s sequestered upstairs, and the rest of us are figuring out our new quarantine situation for the next 14 days. We are all currently symptom free but monitoring for symptoms now.

The dogs are not going to be pleased that they can’t sleep near the Mrs. for a while. Sorry dogs, those are Smoove_B’s orders.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:57 pm

Daehawk wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:01 pm Do you know how you got it?

Nope. I don’t know anyone who’s had it, and I have been disciplined about wearing a mask when out. The only thing that sticks out in my mind is that I went to the Rite Aid in town last Monday for a flu shot. While I was waiting, there were other people there who seemed a little sketchy - not appropriate social distancing, coughing, etc. I guess it’s possible I could have picked it up there. The timeframe is probably right if I was exposed on Monday and started showing symptoms on Thursday.

But when I got a call from the OR state health department today, they told me it’s extremely difficult to contract COVID-19 if you haven’t been in close contact with someone who has it for greater than 15 minutes, which would suggest against my Rite Aid hypothesis.

Who knows?

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:01 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:54 pm
Smoove_B wrote:Jesus. Crazy day. Get well, Kurth. As I'm sure you know, if your symptoms get worse notify emergency services immediately; don't delay.
Indeed.

Godspeed Kurth, hope things don’t get worse for you.

Unfortunately the COVID also invaded the RM9 household this morning. My wife developed a low fever yesterday and got tested this morning (our doctor had the 15-minute test on hand), and it came back positive.

She’s sequestered upstairs, and the rest of us are figuring out our new quarantine situation for the next 14 days. We are all currently symptom free but monitoring for symptoms now.

The dogs are not going to be pleased that they can’t sleep near the Mrs. for a while. Sorry dogs, those are Smoove_B’s orders.

That sucks, RM9. Hope she is quickly on the mend.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:05 pm

We've had a FEMA tent in one.of our parking lots since April. That's when we converted the whole lot to a drive-through testing center.

I noticed yesterday there was a lot of activity in the lot. Today I saw why: there's a wooden building on the lot now, for the workers to keep warm in (yesterday hit 35 degrees (f) ).

I'll say it again. Gonna be a long winter.

NickAragua · Post by **NickAragua** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:18 pm

Daehawk wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:16 pm
NickAragua wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:08 pm Good luck, man.

Daehawk wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:01 pm Do you know how you got it?
The positive test is a pretty good hint.
How does that explain how he got infected?

Sorry, reading comprehension is a bit off apparently. My brain decided to move the "how" to the beginning of the sentence for me.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:19 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:49 pm This only work if we (collectively) wear masks in public, maintain distance and limit contact with people not in our households. This doesn't work if we wear masks in public and attend indoor private gatherings with people outside of our unit.

Yeah. It sucks that the easy answer is the one most likely to be ignored. Maybe if we had strong leadership?

Going back to excess deaths, we're not going to figure that out for a long time, imho, at least definitively. The Washingon Post did a piece on it and found:

Obviously the big culprit is going to be COVID-19 both directly and indirectly. I only found significant interest in the age numbers and the curve shapes. 0-44 clearly has less (if any) COVID effect or you'd see two humps like in the 45-74.

Good luck Kurth and RM9 family. I hope you speed your way through it.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:27 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:54 pmUnfortunately the COVID also invaded the RM9 household this morning. My wife developed a low fever yesterday and got tested this morning (our doctor had the 15-minute test on hand), and it came back positive.

Gah! That's terrible, RM. I hope she feels better soon and the rest of you stay symptom free.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm I kept expecting something ridiculous from Zubin Damania,, however, I think it more articulates what Little Raven and I were trying to express.

Short version, excess deaths by age from 25-64 are WAY up and this needs evaluation as it's unlikely COVID-19 can explain it.

I agree more evaluation is needed but saying it is unlikely is not true. It is the most likely explanation until we know otherwise. And the support for this statement is that we know that 2/3 or so of the excess deaths are directly coronavirus. This is just stats. Even if the rest of the excess deaths were 50/50 coronavirus and 'deaths of distress' then we have ~75% of deaths attributed to coronavirus. And to Smoove_B's point we won't know the clear picture for quite some time. In that void of information, it is unethical to conduct some society scale experiment by rolling back controls. Heck a controlled experiment where the people agree to it...that even might be unethical. It is a tricky problem.

There needs to be some reasonable balance between lockdowns and open it all up and it seems very difficult to get traction on debating it.

We are in a steady state like that *right now*. The question then is whether it a reasonable balance or not? It appears to be a no on the 'too loose' side because the pandemic is accelerating. We could have more controls. However, that isn't politically feasible right now. Still loosening controls at the moment makes no sense going into worsening conditions. We have to go with the data we have in our hands until we have more certainty.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:31 pm

Wow Kurth, hope you get well soon!

In unrelated news, Pence is coming for a rally today at the business park I work at. Fortunately, I'm off, so I don't have to deal with any crazy traffic. But a look at these photos make me think the spike we've seen in COVID in our county isn't going to be abating any time soon.

Pence Rally

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:33 pm

Get well Kurth and Mrs. RM9!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:42 pm

Kurth wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:01 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:54 pm
Smoove_B wrote:Jesus. Crazy day. Get well, Kurth. As I'm sure you know, if your symptoms get worse notify emergency services immediately; don't delay.
Indeed.

Godspeed Kurth, hope things don’t get worse for you.

Unfortunately the COVID also invaded the RM9 household this morning. My wife developed a low fever yesterday and got tested this morning (our doctor had the 15-minute test on hand), and it came back positive.

She’s sequestered upstairs, and the rest of us are figuring out our new quarantine situation for the next 14 days. We are all currently symptom free but monitoring for symptoms now.

The dogs are not going to be pleased that they can’t sleep near the Mrs. for a while. Sorry dogs, those are Smoove_B’s orders.
That sucks, RM9. Hope she is quickly on the mend.

All of you get well and don't hesitate to get treated sooner than later.

I'm getting an occasional tickle in my throat and I'm getting freaky. I'm glad every day I leave the house, is a day in which I leave the house to work and I have to get my temp checked to get in the building. That's one way to keep me grounded from overthinking or not reporting potential symptoms of hysteria. At the same time too many of the people allowed in my office are too lax with their attitudes on masks, so I'm like the cat in Pepe Le'Pew trying to not have to go in the office... where I seem to be 4 to 5 days nowadays. And every day I walk in I tell my boss "my goal today is to work the second half of the day from home." I usually fail.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:43 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 pm
Short version, excess deaths by age from 25-64 are WAY up and this needs evaluation as it's unlikely COVID-19 can explain it.
I agree more evaluation is needed but saying it is unlikely is not true. It is the most likely explanation until we know otherwise. And the support for this statement is that we know that 2/3 or so of the excess deaths are directly coronavirus. This is just stats. Even if the rest of the excess deaths were 50/50 coronavirus and 'deaths of distress' then we have ~75% of deaths attributed to coronavirus. And to Smoove_B's point we won't know the clear picture for quite some time. In that void of information, it is unethical to conduct some society scale experiment by rolling back controls. Heck a controlled experiment where the people agree to it...that even might be unethical. It is a tricky problem.

It is unethical to blindly hold to one point of view without considering new evidence.

We've been running hundreds of thousands... perhaps millions... of society scale experiments around the world. How about we start interpreting, discussing, and applying the data? It worked for masks, right?

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:46 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:33 pm Get well Kurth and Mrs. RM9!

+1. If either me or Wife get it, then we've both got it, because quarantine would be very difficult in our little house with its one bathroom.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:46 pm

Stessier you may not be there but people you work with will be there probably.

Kurth thanks. Im curious as to how people think they got it so I can avoid the same things or change my stuff. I can understand people with kids in school getting it easy or those that go to work. But if you stay home mostly and wear masks out and such and avoid contact it worries me Im not doing enough. There may be no enough to do.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:50 pm

So, as I mentioned yesterday, NJ has indicated that as part of their plan to vaccinate 81K people every 5 days, they're going to be reliant on local health officials to staff and organize mass vaccination clinics. To be clear, we have plans in place for generic mass vaccination offerings - the administrative angle is more or less nailed down. Instead it's the resources and manpower to get it done. To that end, our governor commented yesterday that we'll need federal aid (always part of the plan) and today's piece on Vox reinforces that point:

A well-coordinated, well-supported effort by health departments to vaccinate the US population will likely cost at least $8.4 billion, according to an October 1 letter NACCHO sent to Congress requesting that much be appropriated for the effort. And other public health groups, including the Association of State and Territorial Health Offices (ASTHO), agree.

CDC Director Robert Redfield put the number slightly lower, but still in the billions. In a congressional subcommittee meeting in mid-September, Redfield said the CDC would need $6 billion to help states and localities adequately prepare to distribute a potential vaccine.

But the federal government still has not said if it will fund the effort, or how much it will allocate to vaccine distribution and administration.

So my new belief is that Trump and Mitch are going to punt on funding, knowing full-well that the vaccine rollout isn't going to occur until after January 2021, and then the GOP en masse will immediately pivot to the evil Democrats and President Joe Biden raising your taxes and borrowing from your future to pay for the vaccination effort.

Let's see.

I'm still kinda amazed that Trump (and his surrogates) are saying this all goes away after 11/4. Is there really anyone that believes that? I guess it takes all kinds.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:54 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:54 pm
Smoove_B wrote:Jesus. Crazy day. Get well, Kurth. As I'm sure you know, if your symptoms get worse notify emergency services immediately; don't delay.
Indeed.

Godspeed Kurth, hope things don’t get worse for you.

Unfortunately the COVID also invaded the RM9 household this morning. My wife developed a low fever yesterday and got tested this morning (our doctor had the 15-minute test on hand), and it came back positive.

She’s sequestered upstairs, and the rest of us are figuring out our new quarantine situation for the next 14 days. We are all currently symptom free but monitoring for symptoms now.

The dogs are not going to be pleased that they can’t sleep near the Mrs. for a while. Sorry dogs, those are Smoove_B’s orders.

Damn. I was thinking today that, with a few exceptions, the OO tribe has been remarkably free from direct COVID impact. Was hoping that would last. Best of luck to both Kurth and Mrs RM9.

I'll be shocked if we somehow manage to get by without it during this crazy Utah flare-up. I rarely leave the house, but Mrs. Skinypupy works retail and the kids are in school. Her store is very strict about masks and distancing, but still have their share of assholes (like the lady who wore a mesh "mask" yesterday).

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:56 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:50 pm I'm still kinda amazed that Trump (and his surrogates) are saying this all goes away after 11/4. Is there really anyone that believes that? I guess it takes all kinds.

Dude, they've already "ENDED THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC". What more do you want them to do?

https://twitter.com/dvergano/status/1321124080448393217

White House OSTP releases "Science and Technology Accomplishments from First Term", includes "ENDING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC" as accomplishment. (guess they dunno what accomplish means?)
https://whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploa ... 7-2020.pdf

includes statement from noted STEM expert Ivanka Trump

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:58 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:43 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 pm
Short version, excess deaths by age from 25-64 are WAY up and this needs evaluation as it's unlikely COVID-19 can explain it.
I agree more evaluation is needed but saying it is unlikely is not true. It is the most likely explanation until we know otherwise. And the support for this statement is that we know that 2/3 or so of the excess deaths are directly coronavirus. This is just stats. Even if the rest of the excess deaths were 50/50 coronavirus and 'deaths of distress' then we have ~75% of deaths attributed to coronavirus. And to Smoove_B's point we won't know the clear picture for quite some time. In that void of information, it is unethical to conduct some society scale experiment by rolling back controls. Heck a controlled experiment where the people agree to it...that even might be unethical. It is a tricky problem.
It is unethical to blindly hold to one point of view without considering new evidence.

We've been running hundreds of thousands... perhaps millions... of society scale experiments around the world. How about we start interpreting, discussing, and applying the data? It worked for masks, right?

Nice try with the twist. It doesn't follow. It isn't unethical to follow the data we have.

Anyway. Read above. The data you seek is MISSING right now. Until we know more, we have to use the data we have. It indicates increasing infection and increasing levels of death. We know hard stop right now that 2/3s of the excess deaths are coronavirus. And its getting worse. What else should we be considering in the face of that? Can we quantify it? The video you linked explicitly talks about how we don't know the scale of other factors. If we don't know we can't factor it in...yet.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:09 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:56 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:50 pm I'm still kinda amazed that Trump (and his surrogates) are saying this all goes away after 11/4. Is there really anyone that believes that? I guess it takes all kinds.
Dude, they've already "ENDED THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC". What more do you want them to do?

https://twitter.com/dvergano/status/1321124080448393217

White House OSTP releases "Science and Technology Accomplishments from First Term", includes "ENDING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC" as accomplishment. (guess they dunno what accomplish means?)
https://whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploa ... 7-2020.pdf

includes statement from noted STEM expert Ivanka Trump

My naivete. In 2016, I sincerely believed Ivanka wasn't as bad as the rest of the clan in the White house. she and Jared may be the worst. They've been more actively involved in active deception than the other two pieces of garbage.

And another one I actually felt sympathy for in 2016...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/politics ... index.html

"Now he suggests that he could have done a better job. Well, the American people can look at Joe Biden's 36 years in Congress and eight years in the vice presidency and determine whether they think he'll finally be able to get something done for the American people.

...

"Like many of you, I have experienced the firsthand effects of Covid-19 -- not only as a patient -- but as a worried mother and wife. I know there are many people who have lost loved ones or know people who have been forever impacted by this silent enemy," Melania Trump said in Pennsylvania.

...

"No one should be promoting fear of real solutions for purely political ends ... The Democrats have chosen to put thier own agendas over the American people's wellbeing. Instead, they attempt to create a divide. A divide in something that should be non-partisan and non-controversial. A divide that causes confusion and fear instead of hope and security. That is not the leadership," she said.
"Let us also not forget what the Democrats chose to focus on when Covid-19 first came into our country. While the President was taking decisive action to keep the American people safe, the Democrats were wasting American taxpayer dollars in a sham impeachment," she added.
Melania Trump also made mention of her husband's presence on social media, saying, "For the first time in history the citizens of this country get to hear directly and instantly from their President every single day through social media."

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:41 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:58 pmNice try with the twist. It doesn't follow. It isn't unethical to follow the data we have.

Anyway. Read above. The data you seek is MISSING right now. Until we know more, we have to use the data we have. It indicates increasing infection and increasing levels of death. We know hard stop right now that 2/3s of the excess deaths are coronavirus. And its getting worse. What else should we be considering in the face of that? Can we quantify it? The video you linked explicitly talks about how we don't know the scale of other factors. If we don't know we can't factor it in...yet.

We know that 2/3rds of the excess deaths for certain age brackets are coronavirus.

Z-Corn · Post by **Z-Corn** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:55 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:05 pm We've had a FEMA tent in one.of our parking lots since April. That's when we converted the whole lot to a drive-through testing center.

I noticed yesterday there was a lot of activity in the lot. Today I saw why: there's a wooden building on the lot now, for the workers to keep warm in (yesterday hit 35 degrees (f) ).

I'll say it again. Gonna be a long winter.

There is a drive-through testing facility down the road a bit from my subdivision, sometimes I pass it twice a day. They have had three big tents set up all summer but are now building out a fully roofed facility created out of four shipping containers. And they have been busy as hell this week. Twenty+ cars in line the four times I have passed it this week.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:35 pm

Damn, that's brutal.

https://twitter.com/TheStefanSmith/stat ... 3544291333

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:54 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:56 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:50 pm I'm still kinda amazed that Trump (and his surrogates) are saying this all goes away after 11/4. Is there really anyone that believes that? I guess it takes all kinds.
Dude, they've already "ENDED THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC". What more do you want them to do?

https://twitter.com/dvergano/status/1321124080448393217

White House OSTP releases "Science and Technology Accomplishments from First Term", includes "ENDING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC" as accomplishment. (guess they dunno what accomplish means?)
https://whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploa ... 7-2020.pdf

includes statement from noted STEM expert Ivanka Trump

Holy shit! I feel better already.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:03 pm

Stupid Twat Ego Maniac?

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:04 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:56 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:50 pm I'm still kinda amazed that Trump (and his surrogates) are saying this all goes away after 11/4. Is there really anyone that believes that? I guess it takes all kinds.
Dude, they've already "ENDED THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC". What more do you want them to do?

https://twitter.com/dvergano/status/1321124080448393217

White House OSTP releases "Science and Technology Accomplishments from First Term", includes "ENDING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC" as accomplishment. (guess they dunno what accomplish means?)
https://whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploa ... 7-2020.pdf

includes statement from noted STEM expert Ivanka Trump

So much fucking winning from this administration...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:28 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:41 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:58 pmNice try with the twist. It doesn't follow. It isn't unethical to follow the data we have.

Anyway. Read above. The data you seek is MISSING right now. Until we know more, we have to use the data we have. It indicates increasing infection and increasing levels of death. We know hard stop right now that 2/3s of the excess deaths are coronavirus. And its getting worse. What else should we be considering in the face of that? Can we quantify it? The video you linked explicitly talks about how we don't know the scale of other factors. If we don't know we can't factor it in...yet.
We know that 2/3rds of the excess deaths for certain age brackets are coronavirus.

No. Overall. Approximate current death count = 220K all ages. CDC Estimated Excessive Deaths are ~300K. That is 2/3 *overall*. CDC actually calls it "At least 2 out of 3". The largest percent increases were Hispanic or Latino and adults aged 25-44.

And that 1 out of 3 is not quantified yet. It could be covid-19 undercount, it could be healthcare avoidance, it could be proverty, but in the end we don't know. What we do know is case count is dramatically increasing. We know that excess death is driven by COVID-19 in at least 2/3 of cases so at the very least for now there is no data informed reading that indicates we need to think about a re-balance towards *less controls*. It looks more like the opposite.

In fact, I'm not saying anything much different from the video you linked. I agree with what he says. We need to have the right approach but what I was originally pushing back on is your characterization of the data as quoted in the sentence below.

Short version, excess deaths by age from 25-64 are WAY up and this needs evaluation as it's unlikely COVID-19 can explain it.

And even if you dig into just that age group there isn't any real support for that sentence. In fact, the discussion from the CDC study indicates it almost certainly is COVID-19 (quoted below). There is even an interesting note that the excess mortality rate shifted *younger* over the summer. That matches up nicely with the activity we saw over this summer where young people took more risk -- as they do -- commiserate with their overall lower risk. However the data suggests it may still killed an 'excess' sum of them. If it was more economic impact, it seems reasonable to assume that it wouldn't have come and gone with the summer. I'll admit that is merely a hypothesis but it is one that matches up with common sense.

Anyway, I can't square the facts here with any other conclusion -- If we reduce controls, it'll almost certainly lead to more death. If we had a functional government that could backstop the economic impact we'd almost certainly be discussing increasing controls in the face of data like this. Especially as we're already seeing several states hitting the rails mid-to-late October.

CDC wrote:Based on NVSS data, excess deaths have occurred every week in the United States since March 2020. An estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died since January 26, 2020; approximately two thirds of these deaths were attributed to COVID-19. A recent analysis of excess deaths from March through July reported very similar findings, but that study did not include more recent data through September (5).

Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020. The age distribution of COVID-19 deaths shifted toward younger age groups from May through August (9); however, these disproportionate increases might also be related to underlying trends in other causes of death. Future analyses might shed light on the extent to which increases among younger age groups are driven by COVID-19 or by other causes of death. Among racial and ethnic groups, the smallest average percentage increase in numbers of deaths compared with previous years occurred among White persons (11.9%) and the largest for Hispanic persons (53.6%), with intermediate increases (28.9%–36.6%) among AI/AN, Black, and Asian persons. These disproportionate increases among certain racial and ethnic groups are consistent with noted disparities in COVID-19 mortality.***

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:41 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:49 pm It's so hard to say anymore because what's driving incidence in NY and NJ isn't the same as what's driving in Utah or North Dakota (I randomly picked those states (debate over lockdown). For example, locking down NJ (like we did back in April) likely wouldn't do much right now for us because it's not spreading from public, social contacts. However, lockdowns in other states where maskless prolonged contact is still occuring? That might make more sense. On the other hand, if we then take all those people now carrying it and force them into a lockdown mode, they're absolutely going to mingle privately (and with weather change, likely indoors) and the outbreak is going to continue.

That makes sense. I think if you frame it in terms of Trump's reckless downplaying of this crisis, GOP adoption of this position, and the consequent politicization of this pandemic we will find he has successfully poisoned the well against managing this crisis effectively. We're unfortunately stuck minimizing deaths in horribly non-optimal ways. It also doesn't help that the CDC data essentially indicates it is a crisis in the non-White community. Why don't people on OO -- until today at least -- know so few people affected? Because we are generally white people.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:14 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm Source Data

Another interesting note - the peaks in all the 25-64 data roughly correlates with peaks of Coronavirus cases. The highest excess death peak was in week 17 (roughly April 20th - 26th). The second run of excess deaths was somewhere in the vicinity of weeks 30 to 32 (between July 20th and August 9th). These lag the big spikes in coronavirus cases. In between the peaks, it almost fell back to baseline levels. It isn't a conviction but COVID-19 has to be the prime suspect at the moment. If it were underlying economic conditions it'd likely be much more consistent. It's probably in there to be sure but the primary driver is almost certainly COVID-19. With the huge uptick in cases we are seeing there is almost no support for loosening controls.

The bright side is that the trending shows we obviously have gotten much better at reducing the death rate of the sickest even between Wave 1 and Wave 2. That's great news for Wave 3 but if we run into hospital capacity limits that trend might reverse itself.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:26 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:14 pm The bright side is that the trending shows we obviously have gotten much better at reducing the death rate of the sickest even between Wave 1 and Wave 2. That's great news for Wave 3 but if we run into hospital capacity limits that trend might reverse itself.

Or it could be what's known as "lead-time bias", which is a thing in public health.

https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1280305428300206082

Lead time bias tells us that we can expect to see a longer delay between detection & death because we are detecting people earlier in the disease process. This does not mean people are surviving longer! That’s the sneaky lead time bias talking!!

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:28 pm

The long term problems some have is scary too. Severe chest pain requiring pain IVs, 100+ resting heart beats, brain fog, tiredness, liver and lung damage where they cant have alcohol or breath walking to the mailbox....much more and this is 6+ months after getting well supposedly.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:39 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:26 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:14 pm The bright side is that the trending shows we obviously have gotten much better at reducing the death rate of the sickest even between Wave 1 and Wave 2. That's great news for Wave 3 but if we run into hospital capacity limits that trend might reverse itself.
Or it could be what's known as "lead-time bias", which is a thing in public health.

https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1280305428300206082

Lead time bias tells us that we can expect to see a longer delay between detection & death because we are detecting people earlier in the disease process. This does not mean people are surviving longer! That’s the sneaky lead time bias talking!!

That makes sense. The disease runs its course -- barring therapeutics or something disrupting its process. I'm not seeing the connection here between a bigger Wave 2 -- though that's an assumption too because some percentage of Wave 1 went undetected -- and a much smaller excess death count though? Shouldn't lead time bias be 'evened' out when you look at it retrospectively? To me, the concept reads to me like it is more a "real-time" or "near-term" data defect that I'd imagine is cured with time.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:04 pm

It appears my county has about 340 cases per 100,000.

Heres a nice interactive map of the country. Hover your mouse around or type in a county.

https://www.wrcbtv.com/covid-19-interactive-map

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:06 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:39 pmI'm not seeing the connection here between a bigger Wave 2 -- though that's an assumption too because some percentage of Wave 1 went undetected -- and a much smaller excess death count though? Shouldn't lead time bias be 'evened' out when you look at it retrospectively? To me, the concept reads to me like it is more a "real-time" or "near-term" data defect that I'd imagine is cured with time.

The issue is that we're still evolving - our tools and diagnostics are changing. So Trying to compare what was happening March-May vs June-August isn't going to necessarily line up (when you look at the crude data. We're seemingly better now at diagnosing people earlier and possibly offering better treatment options. Not just drugs but things like that whole pronation philosophy that came out in early summer where they simply flip someone over to ease breathing. However, everything is hinged on early testing, quick identification and treatments. Once the system becomes overwhelmed again all of our apparent gains in reducing hospital times and deaths are going to go out the window because our effective lead time on the disease will vaporize.

Yes, over time (decade+) when you look at something like colorectal cancer (for example) survivability is so much better than it was in the early 1980s simply because of that lead time and the change in our testing protocol. However, if we stop pushing for tests or making them available, those "lead time" gains are gone and the 90% 5 year survival rate we've seen will slowly decrease.

For COVID-19 if we change testing protocols or even change type of test we offer it's going to skew the data in and change how this all looks in terms of who's surviving.

I'm not sure it's an excess death issue, so sorry if I confused that. It's more of a "hey, we're doing better at treating COVID-19 issue". Yes...but why is the real answer.

I'm probably mixing things up a bit. My brain is pudding; it's been a long day.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:45 am

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm I kept expecting something ridiculous from Zubin Damania,, however, I think it more articulates what Little Raven and I were trying to express.

Side note, but Zubin and I were friends in junior high in Fresno. He was honestly one of the funniest people I knew back then. I was really surprised when I looked him up a few months ago and saw how big his internet presence was.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:00 am

Italy tries to help their people but the people would rather protest.

Protests in Italy over anti-virus measures turn violent

Demonstrations took place in several cities of Northern Italy on Monday, following new restrictions to curb the country's second wave of Covid

Appalling just how arsey stupid people can be.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:57 am

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:45 am
noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm I kept expecting something ridiculous from Zubin Damania,, however, I think it more articulates what Little Raven and I were trying to express.

Side note, but Zubin and I were friends in junior high in Fresno. He was honestly one of the funniest people I knew back then. I was really surprised when I looked him up a few months ago and saw how big his internet presence was.

I had a bias against him only because of the source of the video. I never heard about him prior. Seems like a very smart guy though. I really enjoyed the whole video. Small world.