Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:02 am

British police say they will break up Christmas dinners.

Police chiefs have warned that Christmas family celebrations will be broken up by officers if they flout lockdown rules.

David Jamieson, the West Midlands police and crime commissioner, said officers will investigate reports of rule-breaking over the festive period.

The West Midlands are currently under Tier 2 restrictions, meaning people cannot mix with any other households or bubbles inside.

...

The police chief also warned about the upcoming Hanukkah and Diwali celebrations which will also see families eager to gather inside, contrary to the rules in certain areas.

...

He said: 'We're sitting on a time bomb here. We're getting very near the stage where you could see a considerable explosion of frustration and energy. Things are very on the edge in a lot of communities and it wouldn't take very much to spark off unrest, riots, damage.'

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:56 am

The Limey War on Christmas!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:59 am

Can't wait to see how Trump and his cult spin that into how public health officials in the U.S. are going to be coming for your Christmas dinners if you vote for Biden!

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:02 am

I dont have a Christmas dinner so Trump can go fuck himself

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:02 am

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:59 am Can't wait to see how Trump and his cult spin that into how public health officials in the U.S. are going to be coming for your Christmas dinners if you vote for Biden!

Don't be ridiculous. Biden will obviously cancel Christmas, so we won't have to worry about Christmas dinners.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:12 am

Honestly, while I love crisscrossing the Midwest every Thanksgiving and Christmas, there are years when I wanted to just stay home and enjoy the immediate family with no obligations or commitments.

Guess we get to see how that goes in 2020.

Anecdotally, our COVID+ cenus and ventilator use is up significantly (on a % basis) the past week.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:56 pm

Something something turned the corner, something else more testing.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/13 ... 5124033537

We haven't see positive testing rates like this at any point during the US pandemic. Overall US positive test rate has shot up to 7.3%, and testing has decreased.

wonderpug · Post by **wonderpug** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:03 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:07 pm

On an unrelated note, a new ABC poll has Biden up by 17 in WI.

Almost certainly an outlier, but not crazy to think that a severe outbreak in WI might be moving the state farther in Biden's direction.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:11 pm

I can't help but feel there's going to be a whole subset of academics that are able to make careers analyzing how the pandemic impacted Trump's chances at being re-elected and as cases were surging in October and November, the accuracy of the polls. Plus whether or not rising levels of the virus actually potentially changed voting in the final week. The intersection here really is insane.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:15 pm

Of course, presumably it's going to impact turnout. But then, it's not obvious what the impact of that is, because it stands to reason that election day voters are disproportionately Trump voters.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:15 pm

So I was talking with one of my gaming buddies last night. She's young - 25ish, lives in North Dakota.

It's all an over-exaggerated political ploy. Doctors are reporting everything as COVID because the Feds will give them money for COVID reports, and the tests are massively inaccurate and always give false positives. Plus, COVID only kills like .5% percent of the people that get it, and that's only if they're old and fat. This is just the media trying to make Trump look bad before the elections.

I'm trying to get through to her, but it's hard. I know how to get a slow blade through the shield, but I'm afraid COVID is going to beat me to the punch.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:19 pm

Sounds like she's mainlining conservative media and I don't know how you defeat that in real time.

Experience tells me that the only thing that changes someone that far down the rabbit hole is when it directly impacts them. Then it's all hands on deck, help me because I have a problem. Sorry to hear it. I don't personally interact with anyone that behaves that way, but maybe I'm good at self selecting associates -or- they know better than to say anything to me.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm

After three months of all in-person teaching, my son's "We don't need no stinkin' precautions!" school just had the state step in and tell them to go hybrid after the state reached 9% positive and passed 200/100,000 in new cases.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:54 pm

That's unfortunate the school didn't get there ahead of being told. If I've learned nothing over the last 7 months, its that there's a significant number of people that do not like when the state orders them to do anything. I mean, it's good the school will finally do something, but I fear there's going to be push back and the teachers will feel the pain. Unless the teachers are all angry at the state, then it's everyone for themselves I suppose.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:55 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:56 pm Something something turned the corner, something else more testing.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/13 ... 5124033537

We haven't see positive testing rates like this at any point during the US pandemic. Overall US positive test rate has shot up to 7.3%, and testing has decreased.

The positive test rate is % of those tested who are positive, right?
If so, then isn't the positive rate always going to go up when testing decreases? At least as long as we prioritize tests for people who are symptomatic, with suspected exposure, and high risk?

Not poo-pooing the numbers (holy crap, 43%?!), just the shock at the correlation between lower testing and higher positivity.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:58 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:55 pmThe positive test rate is % of those tested who are positive, right?
If so, then isn't the positive rate always going to go up when testing decreases? At least as long as we prioritize tests for people who are symptomatic, with suspected exposure, and high risk?

Not poo-pooing the numbers (holy crap, 43%?!), just the shock at the correlation.

Early on, there was a lot of talk from certain individuals that the positivity percentage was rising as the testing prevalence rose because reasons. Even though logic would dictate the opposite, as you posited.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:59 pm

ImLawBoy wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:59 am Can't wait to see how Trump and his cult spin that into how public health officials in the U.S. are going to be coming for your Christmas dinners if you vote for Biden!
Don't be ridiculous. Biden will obviously cancel Christmas, so we won't have to worry about Christmas dinners.

Well, duh! Everyone knows that Socialists don't believe in Jesus.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:07 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:55 pm The positive test rate is % of those tested who are positive, right?
If so, then isn't the positive rate always going to go up when testing decreases? At least as long as we prioritize tests for people who are symptomatic, with suspected exposure, and high risk?

No, if the disease wasn't currently spreading the positivity could go down proportional to the reduced number of tests being offered.

What I think is happening is we're shifting again to a point where the system is getting overwhelmed. Doctors and clinics are going to stop testing people they are pretty sure are COVID-19 positive based on their symptoms/presentation and proceed accordingly. The tests they do offer are for people they can't confirm through regular evaluation - borderline symptoms or mild cases.

That was a huge problem early on - using the tests as confirmatory diagnostic tools when medical staff were already 90% sure someone had it just based on a a physical examination and questioning. They're in the "presumptive positive" category and might only get confirmation testing if symptoms escalate and/or they are hospitalized.

When we see % positive testing numbers that high, it's a signal that the system is getting overwhelmed -or- we're not offering enough tests (broadly) to a community. I don't know the details for each of those states, but my general impression is that it's an accurate representation of cases surging. In other words, I haven't seen a suggesting that there isn't enough testing happening in those areas, though of course there could likely be a need for more now.

Very general info here for those that want it and a reminder that we're targeting 5% - which is why those numbers are bonkers.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:08 pm

Thanks, Smoove. Everyone ignore my earlier post.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:20 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:07 pm

What I think is happening is we're shifting again to a point where the system is getting overwhelmed. Doctors and clinics are going to stop testing people they are pretty sure are COVID-19 positive based on their symptoms/presentation and proceed accordingly. The tests they do offer are for people they can't confirm through regular evaluation - borderline symptoms or mild cases.

I can only speak to what were seeing bit we're not seeing the same shortage of tests we did early on. Anyone suspected is being tested (as long as testing isn't a health risk), especially inpatients. However we are reducing "lemme see" tests since we don't want to get into a shortage situation again. Drive through is referral only, rx for mild symptoms is just stay home.

I could certainly see it being different in those states that didn't go through the April-June we did and are now facing it for the first time.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:24 pm

Daehawk wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:28 pm The long term problems some have is scary too. Severe chest pain requiring pain IVs, 100+ resting heart beats, brain fog, tiredness, liver and lung damage where they cant have alcohol or breath walking to the mailbox....much more and this is 6+ months after getting well supposedly.

and this is always going to be conveniently overlooked/further denied by the deniers, until they, again, experience it themselves personally.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:05 pm

Oh the deniers always pick and choose what they want and leave the rest of the facts on the floor.

Today I heard a Trump support say some like the following when speaking of global warming and humans spewing out carbon dioxide. Not word for word but the jist of what was said.

"Carbon and carbon dioxide are good for the planet. Plants and trees LIVE on co2. They need it. The more there is the more plants there are and the more O2 is produced. Its win win"

I just didn't have it in me to bother trying to explain how they left out parts that didn't go with their reasoning and simply ignored it. Like more c02 in the air means hotter temps and hotter temps mean less plants and less plants mean less o2 and more co2 and more co2 means its hotter and hotter means less plants....its a self perpetuating cycle. Theres really no point in explaining to people like that. They dont hear you.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:14 pm

I got a text from Bank of America saying that they're closing / altering hours of locations near me. I *assume* that this is coronavirus driven, but the text doesn't say so explicitly.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:51 pm

El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:14 pm I got a text from Bank of America saying that they're closing / altering hours of locations near me. I *assume* that this is coronavirus driven, but the text doesn't say so explicitly.

My employer has been closing local branches in favor of landmark locations and it had nothing to do with COVID. The demand for in-person banking is not high and people are willing to drive a bit on the rare occasion they need a branch. It's not like there were crowds in branches in the past decade.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:58 pm

Why that Spike in COVID-19 Bank Branch Closings Didn’t Happen (Yet)

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:57 pm

Daehawk wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:05 pm Oh the deniers always pick and choose what they want and leave the rest of the facts on the floor.

Today I heard a Trump support say some like the following when speaking of global warming and humans spewing out carbon dioxide. Not word for word but the jist of what was said.

"Carbon and carbon dioxide are good for the planet. Plants and trees LIVE on co2. They need it. The more there is the more plants there are and the more O2 is produced. Its win win"

I just didn't have it in me to bother trying to explain how they left out parts that didn't go with their reasoning and simply ignored it. Like more c02 in the air means hotter temps and hotter temps mean less plants and less plants mean less o2 and more co2 and more co2 means its hotter and hotter means less plants....its a self perpetuating cycle. Theres really no point in explaining to people like that. They dont hear you.

Actually, high CO2 concentrations *are* good for plant growth, and many plants like higher temperatures, up to a point. Thing is, humans aren't plants. In fact, we depend upon plants that thrive in today's climate. The climate we're going into by 2050 last existed before civilization did, some 150,000 years ago. The "hothouse earth" that we're heading for after 2100 last existed some 30 million years ago, long before humans evolved. The 2050 climate is already pretty much baked-in, but we can still head off hothouse earth.

Science deniers gonna deny science, but the best counterargument is that what's good for plants isn't necessarily good for humans. If they're really rooting for plants (heh) and oxygen, maybe they should think about the vanishing Amazon rainforest.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:01 pm

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:57 pm If they're really rooting for plants (heh) and oxygen, maybe they should think about the vanishing Amazon rainforest.

They should just get some triffids. For the yard.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:38 pm

Ed Yong, once again with America is about to choose how bad the pandemic will get:

The near-term future is already set. Trump has repeated the lie that numbers are spiking because the U.S. tests extensively; in fact, the climbing cases have far outpaced the rise in testing, and are due instead to the rapidly spreading virus. Thanksgiving and Christmas are approaching. Several generations of family members will gather in indoor spaces for prolonged periods of close proximity and spirited conversation—the very conditions in which the coronavirus most readily spreads.

...

Death rates always lag behind cases and hospitalizations. During the national death rate’s recent plateau, about 700 people were still dying every day, and that rate has risen by 15 percent in the past two weeks. It will climb further. This is not, as Trump baselessly suggested, because doctors and hospitals are overcounting COVID-19 deaths to “get more money”; in fact, deaths are undercounted. COVID-19 has already become the second leading cause of death in the U.S. this year after heart disease (or the third, if you lump all cancers together). It is likely the new leading cause of death among people ages 25 to 44. Every lost person leaves behind an average of nine grieving loved ones. Many thousands of survivors are struggling with long-term symptoms.

More to the point:

There are three small mercies that Americans can be thankful for. First, COVID-19 is a starter pandemic, and SARS-CoV-2 is neither as contagious nor as lethal as other pathogens. Second, it is the only major epidemic that Trump has faced during his presidency. (By contrast, Barack Obama dealt with the H1N1 flu and MERS in his first term, and Ebola and Zika in his second.) Third, it occurred not during the dawn of his term but at its twilight, when Americans have an opportunity to avert further incompetence.

Whatever the outcome of the election, the coming winter will be difficult. And whoever occupies the White House on January 21 will probably have to deal with another major epidemic before his term is over. With luck, that event won’t begin until the COVID-19 threat has subsided, but overlapping outbreaks are also possible. We do not know how Joe Biden would fare, and if he is elected, the U.S. will still be riddled with systemic weaknesses and inequities that another pathogen could also exploit. But we do know exactly how Trump will react to the next crisis. The U.S. is trapped in a pandemic spiral, and so is Donald Trump.

Should be shouted from the rooftops:

The U.S. has now clearly seen what happens when a pandemic occurs under Trump. It is an experiment that no one should ever want to rerun.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 pm

France locks down; Germany in "lockdown lite." They hope a brief clampdown will act as a circuit breaker and flatten the curve.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:47 pm

A half-hour long full documentary on the absolute failure of Trump's administration to prep for this, dating back 4 years.

None of it is new info if you've had your ear to the ground this year and watched every headline.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:02 pm

Snapshot of two events in NY:

A wedding and birthday party on Long Island have turned into coronavirus "superspreader" events after at least 56 people tested positive for the virus. Nearly 300 people in attendance are now quarantined, according to officials.

According to Suffolk County Executive Steven Bellone, the wedding took place at North Fork Country Club in Cutchogue on October 17. Despite restrictions, 91 people attended the wedding and at least 30 people have tested positive for COVID-19, the majority of whom were guests.

Bellone said that an additional 159 people are quarantining as a result and recommend fining the venue $17,000 for violating New York state's rule limiting non-essential gatherings to 50 people or less.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:37 pm

See, if more people withheld information from the meddlesome contact tracers this all could have been avoided. A few people at home with the flu... But now I'm everyone is locked down.

Also, I went to a New Jersey country club wedding once. Totally worth risking death/permanent damage/infecting loved ones for. Totally.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:48 pm

News from El Paso:

https://twitter.com/DavidSFOX4/status/1 ... 3463636992

BREAKING: El Paso County is placing a two-week shutdown for all non-essential services. The @DFWHCouncil
council tells me some #Covid_19 patients from El Paso are now in North Texas hospitals due to capacity issues.

GungHo · Post by **GungHo** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:09 pm

Little Raven wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:02 am British police say they will break up Christmas dinners.
Police chiefs have warned that Christmas family celebrations will be broken up by officers if they flout lockdown rules.

David Jamieson, the West Midlands police and crime commissioner, said officers will investigate reports of rule-breaking over the festive period.

The West Midlands are currently under Tier 2 restrictions, meaning people cannot mix with any other households or bubbles inside.

...

The police chief also warned about the upcoming Hanukkah and Diwali celebrations which will also see families eager to gather inside, contrary to the rules in certain areas.

...

He said: 'We're sitting on a time bomb here. We're getting very near the stage where you could see a considerable explosion of frustration and energy. Things are very on the edge in a lot of communities and it wouldn't take very much to spark off unrest, riots, damage.'

They should hire Melania.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:16 pm

They should hire Melania.

Shes too violent with the chains and whips and ball gags. Not to mention she ignores safe words.

nsfw...thats her on the right..1997.

Spoiler:

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:47 pm

Hey, look, another daily case record. We really are diligent about sticking with this pandemic thing and eking out improvements wherever we can.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:10 am

Wonder if this will resonate better with the antis.

We are, all of us, cannon fodder in this war, and it is time to recognize the fact. But we are not defenseless. Just as our troops don body armor before going into battle, we have physical protection. Just as our generals study strategy and tactics to defeat a human enemy, we know how to deploy our resources to end the Coronavirus reign of terror.

But first, let's suppose we got a vaccine by the end of the year. If it's like most vaccines, it will only be 50% to 80% effective. Even if you've had the jab, if you get exposed to the virus you could have the chance of a coin flip of getting infected.

Some people don't get very sick. My daughter caught the bug a few months ago, lost her sense of taste for two weeks, and felt poorly. And then she bounced back to normal. Many victims go through a week or two of agony, short of breath, aching badly, running a high fever, but then get well. Some are sick for months. And about 1% of all those who get sick, well, they die.

There isn't enough Regeneron for everybody; the latest studies say Remdesivir doesn't help much, if at all.

Suppose you get a vaccine and trust it. Go into a crowd where there are sick people including some who don't know they're carriers. And you have a 1 in 200 chance of dying. I wouldn't cross the street if I thought there was a 1 in 200 chance it would put me in a coffin.

A good mask will prevent anywhere from 50% to 90% of Covid infections. That's more protection than ceramic armor and a helmet give a soldier. If you wouldn't go on patrol in a war zone without your helmet, don't leave home without your antivirus gear. It's not a matter of courage or masculinity. It's good sense.

Protect yourself, and protect your family. Wear the damn mask!

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:18 am

Counterpoint: Trump's recovery proves that Christians are immune to the virus.

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/stat ... 48066?s=20

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:20 am

Holman wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:18 am Counterpoint: Trump's recovery proves that Christians are immune to the virus.

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/stat ... 48066?s=20

So all the dead Christians weren't really Christians and Mr. Upsidedown Bible Adulterer is? He's making a powerful statement about his view of Christianity.