Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:45 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:36 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:48 am Something to consider, assuming it turns out to be accurate, although I've kept RNA in a -20 freezer. Of course, I don't think most GPs or pharmacies likely have even a -20.

Temperature note:
Pfizer’s vaccine will almost certainly be the first to be authorized by the FDA. But it’s also going to be the hardest one to use.

The vaccine has to be shipped and stored at ultra-cold temperatures, -94 Fahrenheit (-70 Celsius). That requirement will limit where the vaccine can be used. Moderna’s mRNA vaccine must be stored at -4 F (-20 C), which is not ideal, but not quite as challenging.

I can tell you that state and local health agencies (the ones that are going to be offering the lion's share of these vaccinations) do not have the ability to store millions of vaccine doses at either temperature. I said it earlier - delivery logistics (including funding) is going to be the problem here.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:58 pm

$iljanus wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:50 pm On a more mundane note, HUD secretary Ben Carson has tested positive.

I was waiting for confirmation on this:

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/stat ... 2172129280

HUD Secretary Ben Carson, who now has coronavirus, attended the election night party where chief of staff Mark Meadows and almost every other attendee was not wearing a mask. Several inside the West Wing subsequently tested positive.

So yeah, even after the Red Vetting, they still don't believe they actively put each other at risk. These are weapon-grade stupid people.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:58 pm

Defiant wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:19 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:00 pm https://twitter.com/ishaantharoor/statu ... 6318693378

Trivial side note - Dr. Marcella Nunez Smith is a college classmate of mine! Small world.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pm

-80s are beasts. I assume at least research hospitals will have a few -80s, but I wouldn't' think many if any places outside of research labs would have them. It's great that they have developed a vaccine that (supposedly) works, but it won't do much if it can't be stored and delivered to most parts of the country.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:45 pmI can tell you that state and local health agencies (the ones that are going to be offering the lion's share of these vaccinations) do not have the ability to store millions of vaccine doses at either temperature. I said it earlier - delivery logistics (including funding) is going to be the problem here.

Heck I'd imagine maybe the research hospitals are the only ones with the capacity to store them and I'll hazard a blind guess that hospitals aren't the greatest venue for vaccine distribution.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:06 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:45 pmI can tell you that state and local health agencies (the ones that are going to be offering the lion's share of these vaccinations) do not have the ability to store millions of vaccine doses at either temperature. I said it earlier - delivery logistics (including funding) is going to be the problem here.
Heck I'd imagine maybe the research hospitals are the only ones with the capacity to store them and I'll hazard a blind guess that hospitals aren't the greatest venue for vaccine distribution.

They (Pfizer) did mention that they have also been working on this problem. Some sort of special box to deliver the vaccine in. This is all waaaayy outside my area of knowledge, but I do doubt that Pfizer would put the $$ into developing a vaccine that they could not sell.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:06 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:06 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:45 pmI can tell you that state and local health agencies (the ones that are going to be offering the lion's share of these vaccinations) do not have the ability to store millions of vaccine doses at either temperature. I said it earlier - delivery logistics (including funding) is going to be the problem here.
Heck I'd imagine maybe the research hospitals are the only ones with the capacity to store them and I'll hazard a blind guess that hospitals aren't the greatest venue for vaccine distribution.
They (Pfizer) did mention that they have also been working on this problem. Some sort of special box to deliver the vaccine in. This is all waaaayy outside my area of knowledge, but I do doubt that Pfizer would put the $$ into developing a vaccine that they could not sell.

It will be nice when the federal government is once again helpful in assisting efforts like this, instead of getting in the way.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:08 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pmHeck I'd imagine maybe the research hospitals are the only ones with the capacity to store them and I'll hazard a blind guess that hospitals aren't the greatest venue for vaccine distribution.

As I mentioned last month, our state plan calls for the vaccination of ~81K people every 5 days. That's not happening at a hospital. These are going to be mass-vaccination sites that are going to require support from all different sectors, including the National Guard. We have all the training; we have all the plans. It's a matter of coordinating the finer details and then ultimately paying for it. Hearing Pfizer say that their vaccinations will be free for every American is probably the silver lining in all this (for me).

They (Pfizer) did mention that they have also been working on this problem. Some sort of special box to deliver the vaccine in. This is all waaaayy outside my area of knowledge, but I do doubt that Pfizer would put the $$ into developing a vaccine that they could not sell.

Yeah, I'd need more info. Running a vaccine clinic for a few hundred people a day (my experience) is a whole different animal than needing to deal with the volume of vaccines and syringes for ~16K people a day.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:10 pm

Utah is now on a mandatory mask mandate and gathering restrictions.

None of which apply to churches, of course.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:18 pm

Skinypupy wrote:Utah is now on a mandatory mask mandate and gathering restrictions.

None of which apply to churches, of course.

On the good news for you side, it appears as if the Utes could probably put up at least 30 on the UCLA defense even if they can't play.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:23 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:08 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:01 pmHeck I'd imagine maybe the research hospitals are the only ones with the capacity to store them and I'll hazard a blind guess that hospitals aren't the greatest venue for vaccine distribution.
As I mentioned last month, our state plan calls for the vaccination of ~81K people every 5 days. That's not happening at a hospital. These are going to be mass-vaccination sites that are going to require support from all different sectors, including the National Guard. We have all the training; we have all the plans. It's a matter of coordinating the finer details and then ultimately paying for it. Hearing Pfizer say that their vaccinations will be free for every American is probably the silver lining in all this (for me).

Just looking down the field a bit. Is it safe to say the sites we'd want to mass vaccination heavily overlap with where we are doing mass testing? Is that an issue?

Edit: This question is specific to NJ but maybe has a wider answer.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:31 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:23 pm Just looking down the field a bit. Is it safe to say the sites we'd want to mass vaccination heavily overlap with where we are doing mass testing? Is that an issue?

Edit: This question is specific to NJ but maybe has a wider answer.

Yes. I don't know that anything has been publicly named (sites) but generally speaking they're going to be locations where you can stage people and get them in and out quickly. In our state there will be sites set up by region (North/Central/South) along with county based locations (each county has at least one location).

In a perfect world (to me), they'd get drive-through vaccinations figured out. We already do it for influenza, but I don't know if it's practical for whatever they're proposing for this. However, if they can do it, I think that would speed things up considerably - particularly if you can pre-register and get a printout with a bar code (or have your phone scanned).

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:38 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:31 pm In a perfect world (to me), they'd get drive-through vaccinations figured out. We already do it for influenza, but I don't know if it's practical for whatever they're proposing for this. However, if they can do it, I think that would speed things up considerably - particularly if you can pre-register and get a printout with a bar code (or have your phone scanned).

That is what I see in my head. For example, the Meadowlands. You have rail + car access. The rail could bring supplies and obviously the complex is "optimized" for game day traffic. This would be much lower volume so you'd figure you could stream cars through it. Same thing at a PNC or possibly the Raritan center.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:23 pm

Ars has more information on what the data released so far tells us and doesn't..

Pfizer and BioNTech began their Phase III clinical trial of BNT162b2 on July 27, enrolling 43,538 participants to date. The trial is international, with enrolling sites in the United States, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Germany, and Turkey. Of those enrolled already, 38,955 received their second dose of BNT162b2 as of November 8, 2020.

There are 10 COVID-19 vaccines in Phase III trials so far, but the Pfizer/BioNTech trial is considered the frontrunner, as it was built for speed. For instance, people in the Pfizer/BioNTech trial get their two doses of the vaccine just 21 days apart, whereas other trials space out two doses by 28 days. The Pfizer/BioNTech trial also begins to monitor participants for COVID-19 earlier than other trials, at seven days after the second dose rather than at 14 days.

In addition, Pfizer and BioNTech initially planned to do a first preliminary glimpse—aka an interim analysis—after just 32 volunteers in the trial become ill with COVID-19. That’s in contrast to Moderna’s trial, which planned to conduct an interim analysis after 53 illnesses, and AstraZeneca’s, which will conduct an interim analysis after 75.

The success of the vaccine is gauged by how many of the interim cases fall into the group that received the vaccine compared with the group that received a placebo. If most of the cases fall into the placebo group, for instance, the vaccine appears to be effective. Pfizer’s 32-case interim analysis was the first of four planned for the trial, which will run until 164 cases occur.

But the plans recently changed, according to Pfizer CEO Bourla, who explained in the press release:

“After discussion with the FDA, the companies recently elected to drop the 32-case interim analysis and conduct the first interim analysis at a minimum of 62 cases. Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC [an external, independent Data Monitoring Committee] performed its first analysis on all cases,” Bourla said.

The split of COVID-19 cases between the vaccinated and placebo groups indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90 percent, at seven days after the second dose, Bourla went on. “This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a two-dose schedule. As the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary. The DMC has not reported any serious safety concerns and recommends that the study continue to collect additional safety and efficacy data as planned. The data will be discussed with regulatory authorities worldwide.”

While the news is certainly positive, there are some significant notes of caution. Without full data, it’s unclear if the vaccine is able to prevent severe or fatal cases of COVID-19. The trial also defined cases as those with at least one pre-determined symptom of COVID-19 and a positive test. Thus, the trial data so far doesn’t indicate if the vaccine prevents asymptomatic infection, which can allow the virus to continue to spread undetected. Last, with such limited study, it’s impossible to know so far how long any protection from the vaccine will last. It’s also too early to know if there are rare but serious side effects that will develop later in some participants.

For now, Pfizer and BioNTech are preparing the data for publication in a scientific, peer-reviewed journal. They also note that they expect to produce up to 50 million vaccine doses globally in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:45 pm

LN2 dewars for everyone!

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:47 pm

At my house, we are restocked. Took some doing, but we have a supply of goods and are ready to quarantine. Stores are selling out of stuff again. Don't need to tell ya'll that. So it took a while to get everything sorted out. Our shopping trips are back to maintenance mode, keeping the stocks topped off, and whatever fresh stuff we need.

I have a bad feeling about this winter. A much badder feeling than I had last spring when the initial crazyness came down. I don't think we are going to be dealing with a toilet paper and hand sanatizer shortage this time.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:34 pm

I had planned to do some restock today but I had to cut stuff out of my town visit to get back home. Maybe Wednesday......in the pouring rain.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:50 pm

Daehawk wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:34 pm I had planned to do some restock today but I had to cut stuff out of my town visit to get back home. Maybe Wednesday......in the pouring rain.

That will be way too late, there will be nothing left on the shelves by Wednesday.

Spoiler:

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:56 pm

Really need a meme about covid with Mel as Braveheart and ripping his mask off or having it in his hand saying his " COVID may take our lives but it cannot take our freedom!"

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:17 am

FWIW, I haven't noticed any shortages on the grocery store shelves lately.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:19 am

ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:17 am FWIW, I haven't noticed any shortages on the grocery store shelves lately.

I'm seeing some in a few stores. I think some people are aiming to get ahead of another lockdown. I am heading down to BJs in the morning to stock up on a few things. We're in a good place but just rounding out the plan.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:29 am

ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:17 am FWIW, I haven't noticed any shortages on the grocery store shelves lately.

Paper towels have gotten expensive and a little sporadic. I couldn't get pine nuts for a few months. Otherwise, supplies seem nominal here.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:13 am

Wow, we haven't had full stores shelves since March. They are always out of a number of things with completely empty shelves in several aisles.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:03 am

Well, they didn't have conventional blueberries on Sunday - I had to pay $4.99/half pint for organics! Needless to say our blueberry consumption will be down this week . . . .

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:31 am

ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:17 am FWIW, I haven't noticed any shortages on the grocery store shelves lately.

We're back to the crazy TP shortages around here again, for some damn reason.

Mrs. Skinypupy said there were people lined up outside Costco waiting for the new pallets of TP to drop.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:52 am

In stores I'm seeing weird outages, probably supply chain stuff. Example: canned green chillies.

Some demand related things, mostly specific brands. Example: Lysol spray cleaner. Generics totally in stock.

Online, bicycle parts are tough. Ammo still at 2x+ prices when you can find it.

Don't forget your winter weather gear, folks.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:58 pm

As we are move into the next critical phase of the pandemic, let's check in with the head of the COVID-19 task force:

https://twitter.com/jswartz/status/1326198182603223040

NBC News: Vice President Pence is going on vacation.

It's almost like the guy that prayed for guidance on the proposed solution to the HIV outbreak in Indiana doesn't give a crap about anything.

Also, NJ hit ~3800 new cases today, the highest we've seen since our peak in April. Prepare.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:15 pm

Smoove_B wrote:As we are move into the next critical phase of the pandemic, let's check in with the head of the COVID-19 task force:

https://twitter.com/jswartz/status/1326198182603223040

NBC News: Vice President Pence is going on vacation.
It's almost like the guy that prayed for guidance on the proposed solution to the HIV outbreak in Indiana doesn't give a crap about anything.

Also, NJ hit ~3800 new cases today, the highest we've seen since our peak in April. Prepare.

Well, with the Pfizer press release... MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! I'M GOING TO BIBLE WORLD!

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:25 pm

Saw lots of right wing outrage today about one of the doctors who was put on Biden's COVID-19 task force, Ezikiel Emanuel. Looked him up myself, and came across the Atlantic article he wrote (back in 2014) about why living over 75 is a burden on individuals, families, and society in general.

While I think it's being blown way out of proportion with the Fox News crowd (isn't everything?), I do have to admit that someone who publicly expresses this point of view is not exactly who I would have preferred to be one of the most visible doctors in America, trying to save the lives of primarily elderly citizens.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:34 pm

An update on the wife, her fever broke in the wee hours of Sunday morning, and after having it not return for 48 hours, we have released her back into general population.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:36 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:An update on the wife, her fever broke in the wee hours of Sunday morning, and after having it not return for 48 hours, we have released her back into general population.

Congrats on her making it back into the household!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:36 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:25 pm Saw lots of right wing outrage today about one of the doctors who was put on Biden's COVID-19 task force, Ezikiel Emanuel.

These are the same people that were (still are?) saying over the summer that grandma and grandpa need to be comfortable with dying for the economy, right?

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:37 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:36 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:25 pm Saw lots of right wing outrage today about one of the doctors who was put on Biden's COVID-19 task force, Ezikiel Emanuel.
These are the same people that were (still are?) saying over the summer that grandma and grandpa need to be comfortable with dying for the economy, right?

Yeah, the blatant hypocrisy struck me as well, but I'm rather numb to that at this point.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:40 pm

FWIW, Ezekiel Emmanuel is also the brother of former Chicago Mayor and Barack Obama's Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:41 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:25 pm Saw lots of right wing outrage today about one of the doctors who was put on Biden's COVID-19 task force, Ezikiel Emanuel. Looked him up myself, and came across the Atlantic article he wrote (back in 2014) about why living over 75 is a burden on individuals, families, and society in general.

While I think it's being blown way out of proportion with the Fox News crowd (isn't everything?), I do have to admit that someone who publicly expresses this point of view is not exactly who I would have preferred to be one of the most visible doctors in America, trying to save the lives of primarily elderly citizens.

We'll see how he feels about it in 12 years.

I'm not a fan of Zeke (or Rahm) by any stretch. As an oncologist, how big a role will he play on the task force? Seems like it's just a political/payback appointment.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:51 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:41 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:25 pm Saw lots of right wing outrage today about one of the doctors who was put on Biden's COVID-19 task force, Ezikiel Emanuel. Looked him up myself, and came across the Atlantic article he wrote (back in 2014) about why living over 75 is a burden on individuals, families, and society in general.

While I think it's being blown way out of proportion with the Fox News crowd (isn't everything?), I do have to admit that someone who publicly expresses this point of view is not exactly who I would have preferred to be one of the most visible doctors in America, trying to save the lives of primarily elderly citizens.
We'll see how he feels about it in 12 years.

I'm not a fan of Zeke (or Rahm) by any stretch. As an oncologist, how big a role will he play on the task force? Seems like it's just a political/payback appointment.

Knowing nothing about him, I was hoping that perhaps he was so brilliant in his field that he would be a no-brainer for the role.

If it's simply political payback, the public perception of his "die at 75" attitude isn't nearly worth the ROI.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:59 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:51 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:41 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:25 pm Saw lots of right wing outrage today about one of the doctors who was put on Biden's COVID-19 task force, Ezikiel Emanuel. Looked him up myself, and came across the Atlantic article he wrote (back in 2014) about why living over 75 is a burden on individuals, families, and society in general.

While I think it's being blown way out of proportion with the Fox News crowd (isn't everything?), I do have to admit that someone who publicly expresses this point of view is not exactly who I would have preferred to be one of the most visible doctors in America, trying to save the lives of primarily elderly citizens.
We'll see how he feels about it in 12 years.

I'm not a fan of Zeke (or Rahm) by any stretch. As an oncologist, how big a role will he play on the task force? Seems like it's just a political/payback appointment.
Knowing nothing about him, I was hoping that perhaps he was so brilliant in his field that he would be a no-brainer for the role.

If it's simply political payback, the public perception of his "die at 75" attitude isn't nearly worth the ROI.

He's fairly well known for his work in medical and bio ethics, so there's that. I'm sure he has a lot of connections and contacts that could be useful too. But it's not like there aren't dozens of other doctors out there with similar assets and less baggage. Of course that's not how there positions are filled.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:09 pm

Meanwhile in OHIO:

In a Tweet posted shortly after the case numbers were released Tuesday, DeWine said the data was “alarming” and encouraged people to take the pandemic seriously.

Today's data is alarming: Another 6,508 positive #COVID19 cases have been reported in the last 24 hours. Another 386 people have been hospitalized. 23 more people have died. Everyone must take this pandemic seriously. It's up to all of us to stop this spread.

6500 new cases over the last 24 hours? JFC. Let's see what the plan is later today:

Gov. Mike DeWine announced that he will address Ohioans in a statewide broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday to “discuss the critical stage Ohio is at in battling COVID-19.”

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:24 pm

I'm trying to figure out what the game plan is in NJ. Murphy suddenly seems afraid to do anything.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:25 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:09 pm JFC. Let's see what the plan is later today:

Gov. Mike DeWine announced that he will address Ohioans in a statewide broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday to “discuss the critical stage Ohio is at in battling COVID-19.”

I'll put a fin on no liquor sales after 11pm. That seems to the the go-to salve.