Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

JFC. Let's see what the plan is later today:

Gov. Mike DeWine announced that he will address Ohioans in a statewide broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday to “discuss the critical stage Ohio is at in battling COVID-19.”

I'll put a fin on no liquor sales after 11pm. That seems to the the go-to salve.

That's what we ended up doing but it is after 10 PM in NJ. That'll stop it cold.

[Smoove_B]

I'm trying to figure out what the game plan is in NJ. Murphy suddenly seems afraid to do anything.

I don't have access to the data I'd need to be able to guess. However, for the last month cases were being driven by small-group indoor gathering. I don't know if he has the data to suggest case spread is also associated with bars, but anecdotally I would be amazed if it's not happening. There's a shore bar that just revealed all (or just about all) of the bartenders and waitstaff were positive. When you have people hanging out in close contact, maskless and drinking alcohol it's not helping.

However, if we're really into a situation where small informal indoor group gatherings are the cause, ti's unlikely he's going to be able to do anything and we're all just along for the ride at this point. Everyone is complaining about Thanskgiving and not giving up tradition, so December is looking bad as well. My own MIL has repeatedly tried applying guilt or probing to see if we'd reconsider Christmas. 2021? Maybe.

As has been the case since April, this is about personal behavior. I feel bad for restaurants and bars and I will continue my 2x a week takeout habit as long as I can. But I cannot endorse or support indoor dining or hanging out at a bar in any capacity; it's madness and it comes down to not being able to rely on everyone to do the right thing.

[Smoove_B]

And in case anyone here thinks I'm Gloom and Doom (I'm comfortably wearing the mantle IRL), let's hear from OG Public Health and future task force member Dr. Osterholm:

“We have not even come close to the peak and, as such, our hospitals are now being overrun,” Osterholm said, cautioning the pressure on health services will soon become so high that the quality of care will drop.

“The next three to four months are going to be, by far, the darkest of the pandemic,” Osterholm continued.

“I don’t think America quite gets this yet,” he said. “This is going to get much worse. This is not to scare people out of their wits. This is to scare people into their wits to understand that because we still have control. We can basically limit the contacts we have with people that will dramatically impact our ability of getting this disease.”

[Jeff V]

Don't forget your winter weather gear, folks.

I figure the November weather we've had so far is indicative as to what to expect. Have plenty of shorts and t-shirts.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/krupali/status/1325828520572903424

[YellowKing]

And of course, any spikes after January 20th will be blamed squarely on Biden.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

This is pretty cool/horrifying. TL;DR version: if you go to a gathering of more than 50 people in the Midwest, you’re almost guaranteed to get Covid.

https://twitter.com/cintagliata/status/ ... 48096?s=21

Edit: strike that. Not guaranteed you’ll get it but guaranteed someone there has it.

[LawBeefaroni]

This is pretty cool/horrifying. TL;DR version: if you go to a gathering of more than 50 people in the Midwest, you’re almost guaranteed to get Covid.

Get or be exposed to?

[Holman]

Get or be exposed to?

Well, it's the Midwest, so there will be a buffet. You'll get it.

[ImLawBoy]

I don't see a definition of "event". Is this really just saying that if you randomly sample 50 people, you'll have x% chance of running into one or more positives? Like, I think attending a house party with 50 people is different from going to the grocery store with 50 people, obviously. So does this take that into account in some way?

[ImLawBoy]

Get or be exposed to?

Well, it's the Midwest, so there will be a buffet. You'll get it.

The hot dish temperatures will make it magically disappear.

[LawBeefaroni]

Get or be exposed to?

Well, it's the Midwest, so there will be a buffet. You'll get it.

The hot dish temperatures will make it magically disappear.

Salmonella is a COVID prophylactic.

[Smoove_B]

The United States of Uncontrolled Spread

https://twitter.com/ambernoelle/status/ ... 8386324480


This is terrifying.

[Smoove_B]

I don't even know what to say:

Last weekend, El Paso County set up its third and fourth mobile morgue units as COVID-19 patients were dying faster than the county could investigate them, leading to a backlog of 85 bodies.

Since then, the county has already received 93 more deceased coronavirus patients, and it’s now having to make an even bigger jump in storage space.

“We’ve got two more that are coming up, and then four additional ones that will be given directly to the funeral homes,” Judge Samaniego said.

El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said El Paso County would soon have ten mobile morgues set up to handle the spike in COVID-19 deaths, which the judge said was showing no sign of slowing down.

Can't fix what started a month ago but the time is *now* to stop this from being even worse in the middle of December.

[ImLawBoy]

But have you considered the Great Barrington Declaration?

[Octavious]

There's zero chance anything gets done while Trump is in office. He would love to leave a smoking crater behind him and then blame everyone else.

[Smoove_B]

But have you considered the Great Barrington Declaration?

Hilarious.

Sweden is proposing mandatory bar curfews again as apparently their frequently invoked approach to the pandemic isn't going to so great. Let's see how well-reported that is.

EDIT: read more here.

[malchior]

But have you considered the Great Barrington Declaration?

Yeah. We decided to go hardcore all in on it by forgoing protecting the vulnerable. It'll be fiiiiine.

[Isgrimnur]

Fuck you, Vermont!

Oh, and I’m going to start calling it The Barrington Extinction.

[noxiousdog]

But have you considered the Great Barrington Declaration?

Yeah. We decided to go hardcore all in on it by forgoing protecting the vulnerable. It'll be fiiiiine.

It's also a false dichotomy. Katy ISD has provided nearly a semester of school with an current infection rate of 0.695% for staff and 0.215% of students. There are currently 263 active cases among 12,000 staff and 84,000 students (virtual students omitted). Of note, 50 of the active cases were from an out of school activity.. a teenage birthday on a party bus.

It's accomplished with all the things you would hope to see including very aggressive contact tracing.

[malchior]

But have you considered the Great Barrington Declaration?

Yeah. We decided to go hardcore all in on it by forgoing protecting the vulnerable. It'll be fiiiiine.

It's also a false dichotomy. Katy ISD has provided nearly a semester of school with an current infection rate of 0.695% for staff and 0.215% of students. There are currently 263 active cases among 12,000 staff and 84,000 students (virtual students omitted). Of note, 50 of the active cases were from an out of school activity.. a teenage birthday on a party bus.

It's accomplished with all the things you would hope to see including very aggressive contact tracing.

That's fine and all but that isn't even close to what is happening nationwide by any measure. Your one bright spot on the map is overwhelmed by nearly 140K negative data points *YESTERDAY* alone everywhere else.

[Smoove_B]

Prediction - we're going to start to see lots of articles and media personalities running explainers on "exponential growth". This, btw was also my reaction.

https://twitter.com/geophysichick/statu ... 6954070018

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, it's terrifying. I was commenting to a co-worker today that this third wave is already considerably larger than the 1st & 2nd stacked on top of one another. Thankfully deaths haven't spiked to that extent yet, but...

[noxiousdog]

That's fine and all but that isn't even close to what is happening nationwide by any measure. Your one bright spot on the map is overwhelmed by nearly 140K negative data points *YESTERDAY* alone everywhere else.

When people are asked to chose to between two extremes, that's what they do.

[malchior]

That's fine and all but that isn't even close to what is happening nationwide by any measure. Your one bright spot on the map is overwhelmed by nearly 140K negative data points *YESTERDAY* alone everywhere else.

When people are asked to chose to between two extremes, that's what they do.

Oh for Pete's sake. Talk about a false dichotomy. They got upset when they got asked to wear a piece of cloth on their face.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, it's terrifying. I was commenting to a co-worker today that this third wave is already considerably larger than the 1st & 2nd stacked on top of one another. Thankfully deaths haven't spiked to that extent yet, but...

By all accounts, treatments seem to have improved over the last ~7 months *however* our hospital systems just can't handle surge volume. Apparently this lesson was lost in the messaging after June.

[malchior]

Yeah, it's terrifying. I was commenting to a co-worker today that this third wave is already considerably larger than the 1st & 2nd stacked on top of one another. Thankfully deaths haven't spiked to that extent yet, but...

By all accounts, treatments seem to have improved over the last ~7 months *however* our hospital systems just can't handle surge volume. Apparently this lesson was lost in the messaging after June.

And as I saw a health official note today, we won't have capacity to do what we did for NY early on in the pandemic. We simply won't be able to surge people because it is happening pretty much everywhere. I'm already starting to hear sirens again throughout the night/day like I did in March/April. I'm not looking forward to that again.

[Smoove_B]

Correct. So much of the April/May effort in NJ/NY was possible because of the mutual aid we received from other states. Now that everyone is on fire? Trouble.

[El Guapo]

What's also great is that we're probably going to need sustained mass protests sometime over the next few weeks or so to prevent the GOP from awarding the election to Trump.

[$iljanus]

What's also great is that we're probably going to need sustained mass protests sometime over the next few weeks or so to prevent the GOP from awarding the election to Trump.

Well at least most everyone at an anti Trump rally are wearing masks and are outside unlike the usual maskless Trump supporters who actively court illness and death.

[Smoove_B]

What's also great is that we're probably going to need sustained mass protests sometime over the next few weeks or so to prevent the GOP from awarding the election to Trump.

I'm not confident mass protests are going to change the trajectory on this one, unfortunately. Also, let's remember what's at stake here as Trump and the GOP continue to delay, delay, delay:

But the Trump administration has stopped all transition efforts, activities and funding, and that will slow, if not completely halt, efforts to get vaccines to the American people. Since the transition hasn’t been formally approved, the vital information the next administration needs is either being shared in limited ways through unofficial channels, or not at all. The inevitable result if this continues is that the Biden Covid-19 response team will have to waste valuable time getting up to speed and retracing the few steps this administration has already taken.

And 70+ million voted for this. We are the dumbest goddamn species alive.

[Blackhawk]

The governor announced new restrictions for Indiana today. I list them below, annotated for reference!

Bolded entries were already in place, and have been for months.
Italicized entries aren't restrictions. They're carefully phrased in such a manner as to leave it up to the locals whether they want to do it or not (spoiler: they won't, or we wouldn't be in this mess.)
Only the underlined items are actual new restrictions.

The whole thing was just pointless political theater to pass the buck and make it sound like he's doing something. Kind of like when your boss sees you sorting the paperwork and orders you to sort the paperwork.

Spoiler:

In orange counties:

Attendance at winter indoor K-12 extracurricular and cocurricular events is limited to 25% capacity.
Capacity in common areas and break rooms should be reduced.
Community recreational sports leagues and tournaments may continue with attendance limited to participants, required personnel and parents/guardians.

In red counties:

Attendance at winter indoor K-12 extracurricular and co-curricular activities, including IHSAA sports, is limited to participants, support personnel and parents/guardians.
Local officials may consider limiting hours for the operation of bars, nightclubs and restaurants.
Community recreational sports leagues and tournaments may continue with participants, required personnel and parents/guardians only.
Senior care activities are suspended.
Hospitals, long-term care facilities and other congregate settings may impose visitation limits.
Common areas and break rooms should be closed.

[noxiousdog]

That's fine and all but that isn't even close to what is happening nationwide by any measure. Your one bright spot on the map is overwhelmed by nearly 140K negative data points *YESTERDAY* alone everywhere else.

When people are asked to chose to between two extremes, that's what they do.

Oh for Pete's sake. Talk about a false dichotomy. They got upset when they got asked to wear a piece of cloth on their face.

"They" huh? Even though I just gave you an example of 100,000 people.

[Moat_Man]

Prediction - we're going to start to see lots of articles and media personalities running explainers on "exponential growth". This, btw was also my reaction.

https://twitter.com/geophysichick/statu ... 6954070018

When you look at those graphs please remember in March/April testing was mostly being done on people inbound to the hospital. A lot of people who might have had it but didn't get tested stayed home and convalesced. I bet the numbers in that timeframe were double what are on the graph.

Doesn't make the graph any less troubling.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, we're never going to know the likely numbers - at every point on the graph we have probably been under-testing the population. As I said when this all began, there are academics that are going to make entire careers dissecting the entirety of this and how it unfolded in America - from all different fields.

[Moat_Man]

Yeah, we're never going to know the likely numbers - at every point on the graph we have probably been under-testing the population. As I said when this all began, there are academics that are going to make entire careers dissecting the entirety of this and how it unfolded in America - from all different fields.

Agreed. My reply wasn't directed at you though as you're the master here. It was really for the masses... or me.

[Smoove_B]

No worries - it's a valid observation. The whole testing element is extremely frustrating (if I could some how tease out frustrating elements ).

[Smoove_B]

I am confident the Trumpaloo Army is going to pick up on this and blow a gasket:

Shutting down businesses and paying people for lost wages for four to six weeks could help keep the coronavirus pandemic in check and get the economy on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus advisor to President-elect Joe Biden.

...

A nationwide lockdown would drive the number of new cases and hospitalizations down to manageable levels while the world awaits a vaccine, he told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the wages, lost wages for individual workers for losses to small companies to medium-sized companies or city, state, county governments. We could do all of that,” he said. “If we did that, then we could lockdown for four-to-six weeks.”

bUt tHe lAsT lOcKdOwN dIdN't wOrK!!

“The problem with the March-to-May lockdown was that it was not uniformly stringent across the country. For example, Minnesota deemed 78 percent of its workers essential,” they wrote in the New York Times. “To be effective, the lockdown has to be as comprehensive and strict as possible.”

On Wednesday, Osterholm said such a lockdown would help the country bring the virus under control, “like they did in New Zealand and Australia.” Epidemiologists have repeatedly pointed to New Zealand, Australia and other parts of Asia that have brought the number of daily new cases to under 10 as an example of how to contain the virus.

“We could really watch ourselves cruising into the vaccine availability in the first and second quarter of next year while bringing back the economy long before that,” he said Wednesday.

Once again - we have the ability; we currently lack the political will. Also, F Mitch McConnell.

[Zaxxon]

https://twitter.com/jelenawoehr/status/ ... 82657?s=19

[malchior]

That's fine and all but that isn't even close to what is happening nationwide by any measure. Your one bright spot on the map is overwhelmed by nearly 140K negative data points *YESTERDAY* alone everywhere else.

When people are asked to chose to between two extremes, that's what they do.

Oh for Pete's sake. Talk about a false dichotomy. They got upset when they got asked to wear a piece of cloth on their face.

"They" huh? Even though I just gave you an example of 100,000 people.

It is an outlier. There are places that did a good job or better than others but they are exceptions. Meanwhile in many areas they wouldn't even take basic precautions and the control apparatus (contact tracing) that makes your example work doesn't exist there. It'd be great if we could do this elsewhere. I suspect it is too late now because we're beyond contact tracing (a little bit of a semi-educated guess) but there is zero appetite to do it anyway. Especially considering the President behind all this chaos is obstructing Biden. Who is our only shot of charting into more reasonable territory.