Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:06 am

malchior wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:20 pmIt is an outlier. There are places that did a good job or better than others but they are exceptions. Meanwhile in many areas they wouldn't even take basic precautions and the control apparatus (contact tracing) that makes your example work doesn't exist there. It'd be great if we could do this elsewhere. I suspect it is too late now because we're beyond contact tracing (a little bit of a semi-educated guess) but there is zero appetite to do it anyway. Especially considering the President behind all this chaos is obstructing Biden. Who is our only shot of charting into more reasonable territory.

No, it's really not. You can look at the New York Times Coronavirus map and see who is doing well and who is doing poorly.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:20 am

IDPH just put us on alert and we're clearing the decks again. Here we go...

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:52 am

https://twitter.com/jayberger/status/13 ... 5158210560

This is the line for Covid testing at Dodger Stadium. Today. November 11.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:00 am

I’ve heard from family members that they are getting charged to be tested. One family member in PA said it cost them a total of $160. Didn’t congress pass a law making all testing free though? It literally says on the HHS.gov website “The Families First Coronavirus Response Act ensures that COVID-19 testing is free to anyone in the U.S., including the uninsured.”

Is that only at a limited number of locations?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:08 am

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:06 amYou can look at the New York Times Coronavirus map and see who is doing well and who is doing poorly.

Exactly. That is why I'm perplexed. Whole swaths of the midwest are doing *HORRENDOUS* right now and a good chunk of the country is trending towards bad to horrible including Texas. In fact, Texas overall is at 90% of the summer peak already dailyr case rate. It is just mostly confined to the western edge of the state so far. They'll probably be over 100% in a week or so.

In any case, some areas in the nation are indeed doing better, but we don't know if they've figured out some manageable path or perhaps they just haven't been hit yet. I hope it is the former and I'm glad some places are better but it doesn't make it the norm. We're heading into deadly waters. Especially with the holidays coming up.

Anyway, I don't know why you think that a super low case rate is anything but an outlier considering the positivity rate in Texas is 11% right now. They are reporting incidence rates well under a percent. If the distribution were normal as an example this might be 2 or 3 STD off the median in Texas. It almost certainly is an outlier but I was just eyeballing it.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:38 am

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:52 am https://twitter.com/jayberger/status/13 ... 5158210560

This is the line for Covid testing at Dodger Stadium. Today. November 11.

Unreal. If (when) I ever need a test, I have no idea how that works here. I'm counting on cowering until next summer so that I don't have to find out.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:16 am

Just had a lovely argument with a coworker (the only other person in the office today, unfortunately) about flu shots. I mentioned that I had just had mine, and that another remote coworker had been told they were running out in his area. She proudly stated that she never gets flu shots. I told her that wasn't wise, especially right now. She then stated her husband, her parents and her kids never get them either. Then she said it was just my opinion that folks need them. I laughed and stated it wasn't MY opinion, it was every credible health official on Earth's opinion. She then told me she wasn't going to argue about it and shut down.

Amazing such a mindset still exists. Especially in this day and age.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:27 am

hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:16 amAmazing such a mindset still exists. Especially in this day and age.

That is unfortunately normal in the America. That conversation is why I encourage people to read Fantasyland. Even with its shortcomings it properly contextualizes the roots of that conversation and why it unfortunately is a piece of the puzzle that explains why we're so far into the abyss.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:30 am

malchior wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:27 am
hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:16 amAmazing such a mindset still exists. Especially in this day and age.
That is unfortunately normal in the America. That conversation is why I encourage people to read Fantasyland. Even with its shortcomings it properly contextualizes the roots of that conversation and why it unfortunately is a piece of the puzzle that explains why we're so far into the abyss.

One need not look any further than the Facebook commentary of Trump supporters to understand that this mindset doesn't just still exist, but is prevalent.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:52 am

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:06 amNo, it's really not. You can look at the New York Times Coronavirus map and see who is doing well and who is doing poorly.

So, when this is all said and done there's going to be a story of COVID-19 in America that's a tale of a few different outbreaks. While it's technically true that we're all in the same pandemic and academics are going to say here in America we're we never actually left outbreaks stage (because cases were always present somewhere), in truth that's not entirely useful to help us understand how everything ultimately played out.

The issue with schools and COVID-19 continues to be (and might ultimately be) a significant area of interest. For schools following recommended practices (broadly), all the information I've seen suggests transmission rates in schools (between students and students, students and staff, staff and students, etc...) is low. "Recommended practices" include wearing masks and lowering classroom density.

However, in NJ schools rates of school-based transmission are now going up. I don't have school-level detail to say exactly what's happening, but i suspect it's tied to (1) sports and (2) non-compliance with mask (unrelated to each other). I also don't know how many of our cases are in children aged ~5-12 vs 13+; I just don't have access to that information.

The point here is that all evidence (I've seen - here in NJ, and elsewhere) suggests that when community spread of COVID-19 is high, schools are likely at increased risk for cluster outbreaks. There could be an environmental/temperature related element as well that's impacting spread (community; school) - it won't surprise me if we figure that out and the environmental features that are promoting community (and school) spread for us right now in NJ aren't ever going to be an issue in TX.

If this is all tl;dr for some the short message is - whatever is happening in the surrounding community absolut6ely impacts the school(s). To what degree, we're still learning.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:56 am

hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:16 amAmazing such a mindset still exists. Especially in this day and age.

As hard as it is to believe, up until 2010, the CDC did *not* recommend widespread annual influenza vaccination for everyone. It was only after the H1N1 scare that they finally said everyone over the age of 6 should get a flu shot every year. Prior to that, it was always a targeted vaccination for "high risk" people.

Granted, a decade has passed and we're in the middle of a pandemic, but there are multiple generations of people that never had one growing up or as a young adult that are now saying, "I didn't need it then, why do I need it now?". Yes, you'd think education would help fix that, but here we are.

Anyway, I did want to add that in because it's been a change in our collective lifetimes, but your coworker is still a moron.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:01 pm

I have never, in my entire life, had a COVID vaccine. And I've never had COVID. QED.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:32 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:52 am If this is all tl;dr for some the short message is - whatever is happening in the surrounding community absolut6ely impacts the school(s). To what degree, we're still learning.

That doesn't surprise me. I suspect the degree at which your local community follows appropriate guidelines is strongly correlated to spread as well. Since the June outbreak, our community seems like they are following guidelines... except for the folks that feel indoor restaurants are safe.

Which is why I get a bit aggravated when folks paint with such a broad brush (both lock it down! and open it up folks). It's really the same message from the beginning. Use the appropriate guidelines with strong testing and contact tracing. If you do that you don't have to go into lockdown. If we learn something new, adopt it.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:45 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:32 pmWhich is why I get a bit aggravated when folks paint with such a broad brush (both lock it down! and open it up folks). It's really the same message from the beginning. Use the appropriate guidelines with strong testing and contact tracing. If you do that you don't have to go into lockdown. If we learn something new, adopt it.

Just to clarify, there's absolutely public health value in completely locking everything down - we're recommending it to halt uncontrollable spread. It's not sustainable in any way as a long term solution, nor would it make sense. Even in the short term (4-6 weeks) it should be done with government support (i.e. paying people to stay home). However private behaviors change the equation - as they're about to do for Thanksgiving. We can close bars at 10pm and stop indoor dining at restaurants but if the majority of Americans are traveling to traditional large family gatherings, none of that matters. If schools are enforcing mask and distancing rules in the classroom but the kids, parents and teachers are all hanging out with friends and non-immediate family (or whomever) at small private gatherings, none of that matters. This absolutely requires a change in personal behaviors on the part of every single community member. All of our plans are only as good as the least-compliant members. It's been made abundantly clear that there is a percentage of people that just don't care and they're not going to change anything or act in a different way and so this is life now.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:51 pm

And that's why we can't have nice things.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:56 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:56 am
hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:16 amAmazing such a mindset still exists. Especially in this day and age.
As hard as it is to believe, up until 2010, the CDC did *not* recommend widespread annual influenza vaccination for everyone. It was only after the H1N1 scare that they finally said everyone over the age of 6 should get a flu shot every year. Prior to that, it was always a targeted vaccination for "high risk" people.

Granted, a decade has passed and we're in the middle of a pandemic, but there are multiple generations of people that never had one growing up or as a young adult that are now saying, "I didn't need it then, why do I need it now?". Yes, you'd think education would help fix that, but here we a

Anyway, I did want to add that in because it's been a change in our collective lifetimes, but your coworker is still a moron.

I actually did not know that. Thanks, that does lend some context as to why she feels she doesn't need it.. still stupid, but at least I have more of an understanding as how that mindset might have arisen

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:56 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:52 amHowever, in NJ schools rates of school-based transmission are now going up. I don't have school-level detail to say exactly what's happening, but i suspect it's tied to (1) sports and (2) non-compliance with mask (unrelated to each other). I also don't know how many of our cases are in children aged ~5-12 vs 13+; I just don't have access to that information.

Religious holidays are a big factor too. My town and more heavily in a neighboring town had spates of COVID related to the several Jewish and Hindi holidays. This wasn't like Lakewood/Brooklyn where that is more heavily political. My MIL is in the Woodbridge system and the Hindi festivals (Navaratri ended a few weeks ago and now it's appearing in bigger numbers) are thought to be part of it. It probably is just normal family gathering stuff (goes back to your point about why Murphy stopped at 10 PM bar closings). It also is a bit of a warning shot potentially about what'll happen when we have the T-Giving/Hanukkah/Diwali/Christmas/Kwanzaa stuff. I have to wonder if the schools just end up being where we see it because there is more visibility there in general.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:06 pm

Back to exponential growth - we have this quick summary. Case counts reported yesterday support another millions cases at 7-8 days.

https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status ... 0560118790

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:11 pm

hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:56 pmI actually did not know that. Thanks, that does lend some context as to why she feels she doesn't need it.. still stupid, but at least I have more of an understanding as how that mindset might have arisen

When I started working in local health in my early 20s, I was the youngest person getting a free flu-shot by like 45+ years.

One of the first times (I'll never forget) I jumped in to get the shot at the Senior Center after the mad-rush had passed, but I wasn't wearing the right shirt - it was long sleeve. So I'm standing in the corner with a nurse, unbuttoning my shirt and then taking it off (I was wearing a t-shirt under). My coworkers start laughing on the other side of the room because half of the senior center went silent to watch me as I'm seemingly stripping off my clothes. You can relate, right? All those $1 dance shows you did at your local senior center?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:16 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:32 pmUse the appropriate guidelines with strong testing and contact tracing.

Strong testing and contact tracing aren't universally available. Basic health care isn't universally, why would we think we could implement a nationwide testing and tracing standard in the best of times, let alone under the current inept and ineffective federal government?

It's great that it works in some places. That doesn't mean it's the appropriate solution everywhere.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:19 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:16 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:32 pmUse the appropriate guidelines with strong testing and contact tracing.
Strong testing and contact tracing aren't universally available. Basic health care isn't universally, why would we think we could implement a nationwide testing and tracing standard in the best of times, let alone under the current inept and ineffective federal government?

It's great that it works in some places. That doesn't mean it's the appropriate solution everywhere.

It's also a bit like trying to put in a fire suppression system while the inferno is raging.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:19 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:56 pmReligious holidays are a big factor too. My town and more heavily in a neighboring town had spates of COVID related to the several Jewish and Hindi holidays.

Yes, absolutely. I (personally) lump these in with the small-informal gatherings but they should probably be labeled accurately. I hesitate to do that because I think it sounds like I (we) are picking on religion and the usual actors get all worked up screaming about their Constitutional rights. We're not trying to abolish anything, just pointing out that the virus is agnostic and will use any opportunity you give it to spread.

It also is a bit of a warning shot potentially about what''ll happen when we have the T-Giving/Hanukkah/Diwali/Christmas/Kwanzaa stuff. I have to wonder if the schools just end up being where we see it because there is more visibility there in general.

Right- the schools are helping us understand what might be going on in a community. In the same way that we use maternal and child health statistics to broadly tell us about the overall health of a community, maybe using school information might help us understand community spread. It doesn't cover all the scenarios (childless, elders) but it might be a valuable indicator to some degree. I'm personally less worried about school transmissions than I was, but I'm also quite concerned that as the weather changes here in NJ it's going to impact transmission indoors at schools, particularly in the younger age group where they might be exempted/unable to wear masks.

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:51 pm And that's why we can't have nice things.

Same as it ever was.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:28 pm

Apparently we're at the point where regular people and politicians (Joe Borelli in NYC, wtf??) are bragging about having a "normal" Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders is helping out in the United States because we're so fuct.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1 ... 9927168001

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:30 pm

Two cases (teacher, student) at the kids preschool. He's not immediately affected by the floor closure (he's onna different floor) but since teachers float they're still trying to determine whether they need to shut the whole place down. I trust their judgement since we have 2 infectious disease specialists advising the center.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:30 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:45 pm
We can close bars at 10pm and stop indoor dining at restaurants but if the majority of Americans are traveling to traditional large family gatherings, none of that matters.

That's OK. None of the necessary actions are going to start until after the holidays anyway. Addressing the pandemic starts in January.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:33 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:28 pm Apparently we're at the point where regular people and politicians (Joe Borelli in NYC, wtf??) are bragging about having a "normal" Thanksgiving.

Didn't I post the OpEd that exhorted everyone to travel for family Thanksgiving?

It's like we only know how to fight terrorism now. "Don't let the virus win! Do not be afraid to travel or see your family. It wants you to be afraid!"

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:36 pm

Virus don't care. Virus don't give a shit.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:36 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:33 pm Didn't I post the OpEd that exhorted everyone to travel for family Thanksgiving?

It's like we only know how to fight terrorism now. "Don't let the virus win! Do not be afraid to travel or see your family. It wants you to be afraid!"

Yeah, I saw that article, but up until the last day, hadn't seen people and politicians actually online bragging about it. That's an excellent observation - and possibly true. I haven't seen anyone link this attitude to 9-11 messaging but you might be on to something.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:38 pm

“ If you wear a mask, the virus has already won. “

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:38 pm

By the way, my new strategy with the right wing nutcases is to say, "Yes, it is engineered, yes it is from China and guess what? It's a kill switch. If you get it before a vaccine you will be vulnerable when Chinese satellites broadcast the trigger signal that will wipe out anyone who ever had it. So try not to get it."

The "I don't need a mask, if it kills me, it kills me" attitude often goes away.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:22 pm

Smoove_B wrote: All those $1 dance shows you did at your local senior center?

Why the laughter? I paid for this snickers bar I'm eating thanks to my patented "Granny Grinder" move.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:35 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:36 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:33 pm Didn't I post the OpEd that exhorted everyone to travel for family Thanksgiving?

It's like we only know how to fight terrorism now. "Don't let the virus win! Do not be afraid to travel or see your family. It wants you to be afraid!"
Yeah, I saw that article, but up until the last day, hadn't seen people and politicians actually online bragging about it. That's an excellent observation - and possibly true. I haven't seen anyone link this attitude to 9-11 messaging but you might be on to something.

I've seen people even on these forums say they're going to continue doing something because they're not going to live their life in fear, and I immediately made the connection to "not letting the [terrorists/virus] win". The thing is, fear is valuable! You should be scared of some things! It's perfectly reasonable to not go to a crowded place because you're afraid of getting the virus! Sure, there's a point where too much fear can be debilitating, but no fear at all can lead to death! Exclamation point!

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:06 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:16 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:32 pmUse the appropriate guidelines with strong testing and contact tracing.
Strong testing and contact tracing aren't universally available. Basic health care isn't universally, why would we think we could implement a nationwide testing and tracing standard in the best of times, let alone under the current inept and ineffective federal government?

It's great that it works in some places. That doesn't mean it's the appropriate solution everywhere.

It's good thing I'm not the one arguing for a binary policy. I do look forward to some national guidelines though.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:11 pm

Just under 4,000 cases today in Utah

With Mrs. Skinypupy working retail and the kids in school, I figure it's only a matter of time until one of us gets it.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:12 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:06 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:16 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:32 pmUse the appropriate guidelines with strong testing and contact tracing.
Strong testing and contact tracing aren't universally available. Basic health care isn't universally, why would we think we could implement a nationwide testing and tracing standard in the best of times, let alone under the current inept and ineffective federal government?

It's great that it works in some places. That doesn't mean it's the appropriate solution everywhere.
It's good thing I'm not the one arguing for a binary policy. I do look forward to some national guidelines though.

I think it's more a "lowest common standard" policy. If you can do all the advanced methods, great. But until the nation gets a handle on this, we all have to meet a common standard. This is a pandemic, not an epidemic.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:26 pm

This is appallingly bad, see thread:

https://twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

https://twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:01 pm

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1326971101084327936

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:16 pm

That Rupar tweet is *chef's kiss*

Hey Chicago OOers - I'm hearing you are going under a stay-at-home advisory starting on 11/16 @ 4pm?

Archinerd · Post by **Archinerd** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:19 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:16 pm Hey Chicago OOers - I'm hearing you are going under a stay-at-home advisory starting on 11/16 @ 4pm?

Yep, Lori just told me.
Pretty much everyone was expecting this, so no real surprise. The real question is, will anyone follow it?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:24 pm

Well, it's good practice to start with a strong suggestion first in the hopes you don't need to follow it up with an order. Relying on people to do the right thing...

I don't know what the vibe is in Chicago, but I'm guessing it's like everywhere else - people are tired of this (as they should be). It didn't need to be this way, but unfortunately we have to react to the reality of what's happening nationwide right now.