Election integrity and the transfer of power

[raydude]

Right wing Newsmax, which is owned by Trump’s friend Chris Ruddy, suggesting he retire:

“To avoid all this unpleasantness President Trump should retire immediately and let Mike Pence concede the election, occupy the White House and handle the transition”

... and create an viable option for pardoning Trump before January 20th...

I don't like it, but it would probably be a lower cost than the alternatives.

It will be interesting and I think will offer a public window into the inner workings of Trump's ego. Personally, I don't think his narcissism will allow him to step down, and that mental break is partly the reason for his current actions, including his unwillingness to lead or to make public appearances, and the personnel replacements at the Pentagon and elsewhere. I'm no psychologist but I think his current calls to allies are a cry for help by his ego; basically, he is asking for validation from his allies and he's not getting enough of it.

[El Guapo]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

That's where it comes in handy to have loyalists in charge of defense agencies...

I guess where I am on this now is that it's very very unlikely that Trump will remain in power, but it's not guaranteed that he'll fail and if he doesn't obviously it's catastrophic (we're effectively already in Orban's Hungary in 2021). So maybe a 1% chance of complete disaster.

[LawBeefaroni]

From Chicago Board of Elections this morning FWIW:

Dear [LawBeefaroni]


The Chicago Board of Election Commissioners wants to thank you and the 800,000-plus voters who participated ahead of Election Day through Vote by Mail and Early Voting. We hope your experience was a good one. Our goal in 2021 will be to build on the successes and enhance these systems in the years to come.

Currently, we are busy making sure every valid ballot is counted to certify the results to the Illinois State Board of Elections by November 24, 2020. You may visit our website at chicagoelections.gov to find the preliminary results, and on November 24, the proclamation. We also invite you to update your voter information at any time or browse the information on our website.

There were many challenges during this election. Our main objectives were to make voting safe, secure, accessible and transparent. Your participation contributed to our successes on this front. Thank you for the opportunity to be of assistance.

Sincerely,

Board of Election Commissioners for the City of Chicago

[The Meal]

Right wing Newsmax, which is owned by Trump’s friend Chris Ruddy, suggesting he retire:

“To avoid all this unpleasantness President Trump should retire immediately and let Mike Pence concede the election, occupy the White House and handle the transition”

... and create an viable option for pardoning Trump before January 20th...

...and ruin Joe's line of "46"-embroidered merch that he'd be selling from the White House gift shop according to how Trump's mind works.

[El Guapo]

Right wing Newsmax, which is owned by Trump’s friend Chris Ruddy, suggesting he retire:

“To avoid all this unpleasantness President Trump should retire immediately and let Mike Pence concede the election, occupy the White House and handle the transition”

... and create an viable option for pardoning Trump before January 20th...

Yeah, that's what's super interesting about the Newsmax piece. To the extent that it's implicitly trying to sell Trump on an exit plan that insulates him from criminal liability, it'll be interesting if that gets echoed anywhere else in Derpworld.

What I'm not 100% sure of is, if Trump does get a valid federal pardon, to what extent can be avoid criminal exposure simply by avoiding ever setting foot within NY ever again.

[stessier]

Right wing Newsmax, which is owned by Trump’s friend Chris Ruddy, suggesting he retire:

“To avoid all this unpleasantness President Trump should retire immediately and let Mike Pence concede the election, occupy the White House and handle the transition”

... and create an viable option for pardoning Trump before January 20th...

Yeah, that's what's super interesting about the Newsmax piece. To the extent that it's implicitly trying to sell Trump on an exit plan that insulates him from criminal liability, it'll be interesting if that gets echoed anywhere else in Derpworld.

What I'm not 100% sure of is, if Trump does get a valid federal pardon, to what extent can be avoid criminal exposure simply by avoiding ever setting foot within NY ever again.

Why would that work? If he gets indicted, all the States will extradite a person if found, right? I can't imagine him living a fugitive life style. Be a different question is he left the country.

Another thought - he gets Secret Service protection for the rest of his life, right? That would seem to make it hard to hide.

[Jaymann]

Ugh, can you imagine being assigned to protect a deposed Trump. Now that's a shithole country.

[Skinypupy]

I've seen toddlers get dragged out of Chuck-E-Cheese with more dignity than this.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 6888544256

“REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN.”

Next step will be claiming the lizard people stole the votes from him. JFC.

[Jaymann]

I don't think the word "report" means what he thinks it means.

[WYBaugh]

Is he quoting from this?

https://twitter.com/JohnBasham/status/1 ... 7069942785

[Unagi]

I've seen toddlers get dragged out of Chuck-E-Cheese with more dignity than this.

[Skinypupy]

Is he quoting from this?

https://twitter.com/JohnBasham/status/1 ... 7069942785

Probably. I've seen various versions of it shared by my derper family members over the last couple days.

[El Guapo]

Right wing Newsmax, which is owned by Trump’s friend Chris Ruddy, suggesting he retire:

“To avoid all this unpleasantness President Trump should retire immediately and let Mike Pence concede the election, occupy the White House and handle the transition”

... and create an viable option for pardoning Trump before January 20th...

Yeah, that's what's super interesting about the Newsmax piece. To the extent that it's implicitly trying to sell Trump on an exit plan that insulates him from criminal liability, it'll be interesting if that gets echoed anywhere else in Derpworld.

What I'm not 100% sure of is, if Trump does get a valid federal pardon, to what extent can be avoid criminal exposure simply by avoiding ever setting foot within NY ever again.

Why would that work? If he gets indicted, all the States will extradite a person if found, right? I can't imagine him living a fugitive life style. Be a different question is he left the country.

Another thought - he gets Secret Service protection for the rest of his life, right? That would seem to make it hard to hide.

I don't know much about the mechanics of this, but what I'm wondering about is a scenario where the NY DA indicts Trump, he's currently in FL, and the FL (GOP) authorities don't want to cooperate? I assume that wouldn't work out well for Trump, but that would be a pretty unique case.

If he can't safely stay in Florida, then seems like he would have to basically leave the country in order to be safe, unless he can find some way to make the state / local NY authorities go away.

[WYBaugh]

If you guys want to view some either really scary or really funny look into the the conspiracy theory loving individuals, take a look at this thread on a Gator forum I'm a member of:

https://gatorchatter.com/threads/offici ... 2/page-107

To me, it's terrifying.

[Jaymann]

REPORT: GEORGE SOROS HAS CREATED A COMPUTER SCRIPT THAT CONFIRMS BIDEN RECEIVED 144,000,000 VOTES AND THE DEMOCRATS HAVE WON ALL 100 SENATE SEATS! EVEN ONES THAT WERE NOT UP FOR ELECTION!

[LawBeefaroni]

I don't think the word "report" means what he thinks it means.

When he uses that word, I hear octonauts.




Trumper report, Trumper report...

[Alefroth]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

[Jaymann]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

Precisely why Trump is packing the military with loyalists,

[Alefroth]

I guess where I am on this now is that it's very very unlikely that Trump will remain in power, but it's not guaranteed that he'll fail and if he doesn't obviously it's catastrophic (we're effectively already in Orban's Hungary in 2021). So maybe a 1% chance of complete disaster.

I'm curious how you think he will be removed from power. I don't see him giving it up willingly, and so far I haven't seen any mechanism that will remove him if he is unwilling.

[ImLawBoy]

I guess where I am on this now is that it's very very unlikely that Trump will remain in power, but it's not guaranteed that he'll fail and if he doesn't obviously it's catastrophic (we're effectively already in Orban's Hungary in 2021). So maybe a 1% chance of complete disaster.

I'm curious how you think he will be removed from power. I don't see him giving it up willingly, and so far I haven't seen any mechanism that will remove him if he is unwilling.

Him holding up a sword and saying "I have the power!" doesn't actually give him the power. If the rest of the government stays sane and John Roberts swears in Joe Biden on 1/20/21, then it doesn't matter whether or not Trump has given up power - he won't have it. The calculus changes if the rest of the government decides to go with Trump, of course, but that's the end of the republic anyway.

[Jaymann]

There are 3 hurdles Trump would have to clear to usurp democracy:

1. Vote certification by the states.

2. Electors cast their votes.

3. Inauguration day.

#1 Virtually no chance Trump wins at this level.

#2 Would require multiple states THAT BIDEN WON to send rogue electors who disregard the will of the people.

#3 If Trump fails to clear #1 and #2, a military coup becomes extremely remote.

If he tries #2 and succeeds, civilization has a month to save democracy, all bets are off. If he tries #2 and fails, the cat is out of the bag, and civilization had damn well better close this loophole.

I think the most likely scenario is Trump skulks away on January 20, without conceding defeat, and continues to fleece his base for his 2024 run.

[Alefroth]

It's that if I'm worried about. The government hasn't done much to comfort me up to this point.

If the republic is done, what's next?

[Alefroth]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

Precisely why Trump is packing the military with loyalists,

He doesn't even need to do that. What effect are people expecting mass protests to have?

[Skinypupy]

Aaaaaaaand...Georgia's Secretary of State goes into quarantine right as the recount starts. Awesome.

Shouldn't have a huge effect, but this is 2020, so...

[El Guapo]

It's that if I'm worried about. The government hasn't done much to comfort me up to this point.

If the republic is done, what's next?

Similar to what Jaymann is saying, the safeguards at this point are: (1) the state governments; (2) the courts; and (3) the people. If enough states go rogue (GOP folks in GA / AZ / PA / MI / etc. try to seat Trump electors instead of Biden electors), and if the courts decline or are unable to stop it, then the ultimate failsafe is sustained mass protests.

Which I feel like people tend to be dismissive of, but in this type of situation (where the GOP would be trying to overturn an election) there'd be a decent chance of them succeeding. Though definitely not guaranteed.

[El Guapo]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

Precisely why Trump is packing the military with loyalists,

He doesn't even need to do that. What effect are people expecting mass protests to have?

In short, if mass protests can and do get military dictators to resign, they can get the Pennsylvania legislature to back off from overturning the results of the statewide vote.

[Jeff V]

Which I feel like people tend to be dismissive of, but in this type of situation (where the GOP would be trying to overturn an election) there'd be a decent chance of them succeeding. Though definitely not guaranteed.

Actually, it would come down to who the military would support. If they are going to be a tool of Trump, I can picture him using unreasonable force to back his "law and order" claim. If the military backs the rightful elected president, then fun and games would ensue as the 2A warriors find themselves facing professionals (and perhaps becoming an endangered species as a result).

[El Guapo]

Which I feel like people tend to be dismissive of, but in this type of situation (where the GOP would be trying to overturn an election) there'd be a decent chance of them succeeding. Though definitely not guaranteed.

Actually, it would come down to who the military would support. If they are going to be a tool of Trump, I can picture him using unreasonable force to back his "law and order" claim. If the military backs the rightful elected president, then fun and games would ensue as the 2A warriors find themselves facing professionals (and perhaps becoming an endangered species as a result).

In these types of situations it does often come down to whether the military is willing to shoot civilians in order to help the would-be dictator.

[Alefroth]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

Precisely why Trump is packing the military with loyalists,

He doesn't even need to do that. What effect are people expecting mass protests to have?

In short, if mass protests can and do get military dictators to resign, they can get the Pennsylvania legislature to back off from overturning the results of the statewide vote.

Of course I hope you are right, but I just can't see it happening. And if mass protests do manage to reverse a decision, then the other side is going to be just as pissed and start protesting themselves.

[YellowKing]

The one thing that helps me sleep at night is knowing Trump has done everything in his power to insult and piss off the same military he would need to stage a coup.

[El Guapo]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

Precisely why Trump is packing the military with loyalists,

He doesn't even need to do that. What effect are people expecting mass protests to have?

In short, if mass protests can and do get military dictators to resign, they can get the Pennsylvania legislature to back off from overturning the results of the statewide vote.

Of course I hope you are right, but I just can't see it happening. And if mass protests do manage to reverse a decision, then the other side is going to be just as pissed and start protesting themselves.

Yeah, but you know, more people voted for Biden so...

Bear in mind that Trump to stay in office would have to thread a very narrow path: (1) he'd have to get the results changed in multiple states - e.g., GA, PA, *and* AZ or MI; and (2) he'd have to get the courts to sign off on whatever crazy theory they put forward to justify ignoring the statewide votes (and consequently ignoring statewide law making the vote the decider for the electoral votes).

Which means that there would be *multiple* points to target, and protesters would only need to get one of the following to crack: (1) the PA legislature; (2) the GA legislature and/or SoS; (3) the AZ legislature and/or SoS; (4) the Supreme Court, etc. Any one of those buckle and Trump's done.

[stessier]

I expect Trump will go golfing the day before the inauguration and just not come back all the while saying he's the rightful president. So no one drags him out but he gets to keep saying he won.

[Smoove_B]

I'm seeing quick messages on my Twitter from people in some type of news conference (I'm waiting for it to be published as an official news item) that Trump advisors are saying he will not concede and now realizes the lawsuits aren't going to work. Instead the strategy is to pivot to the Electoral College and look to influence the electors.

I mean, really.

EDIT: I understand that this is all nonsense but the idea that he (1) communicate it and (2) people will support this is beyond troubling.

[Skinypupy]

That seems consistent with the "well, I tried!" strategy. When none of electors actually do end up flipping, he'll just claim it's all rigged anyways.

It's all a stupid and dangerous game with a very minute chance of actually working, but a significant continued erosion on our democracy. Not that he or any of his enablers will care.

[Kraken]

When the legislature overturns the vote of the people because they don't like the result, we're done.

I agree.
This would make the BLM protests look like kittens.

But what effect would they really have?

Precisely why Trump is packing the military with loyalists,

One theory I read says that he's going to yank the last 5,000 troops out of Afghanistan over Pentagon objections.

[LawBeefaroni]

Woah, woah, woah. There's a Million MAGA March scheduled for Saturday in DC? Oh my.

A counterprotest called "F--- MAGA" has also been planned by All Out DC to happen nearby.

The groups involved include Stop the Steal DC, the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, according to a report by DCist.

I bet they're hoping to spark something violent.

[Holman]

Which I feel like people tend to be dismissive of, but in this type of situation (where the GOP would be trying to overturn an election) there'd be a decent chance of them succeeding. Though definitely not guaranteed.

Actually, it would come down to who the military would support. If they are going to be a tool of Trump, I can picture him using unreasonable force to back his "law and order" claim. If the military backs the rightful elected president, then fun and games would ensue as the 2A warriors find themselves facing professionals (and perhaps becoming an endangered species as a result).

In these types of situations it does often come down to whether the military is willing to shoot civilians in order to help the would-be dictator.

Before that, it would come down to whether generals would follow orders to deploy troops at all. I still believe they wouldn't.

Of course Trump could still call on the most militarized portions of DHS/ICE for security, but that's different from having the Army and Marines at his back.

[Holman]

Woah, woah, woah. There's a Million MAGA March scheduled for Saturday in DC? Oh my.

A counterprotest called "F--- MAGA" has also been planned by All Out DC to happen nearby.

The groups involved include Stop the Steal DC, the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, according to a report by DCist.

I bet they're hoping to spark something violent.

From the linked article:

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Thursday that she expects the turnout at Saturday's "Million MAGA March" in support of President Trump to be “quite large.”
[...]
"I think it's going to be quite large, um, from what I'm hearing, don't have an estimate for you," McEnany said on Fox News when asked about the event.

I fully expect DC to turn out a counter-protest that dwarfs the MAGA. But of course that doesn't preclude violence.

[Zaxxon]

The sore loser and the malign loser (Scalzi).

[Jaymann]

DC, that bastion of Trump support, with 5% of the popular vote.