Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Isgrimnur]

Well, it's good practice to start with a strong suggestion first in the hopes you don't need to follow it up with an order. Relying on people to do the right thing...

[Zaxxon]

Well, it's good practice to start with a strong suggestion first in the hopes you don't need to follow it up with an order. Relying on people to do the right thing...

I mean, have you met people?

[Smoove_B]

You can't be a effective and mentally stable public servant if you don't have a dry, dark sense of humor.

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1326971101084327936

Update:

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1 ... 5148151814

JUST IN: The ship's captain announces 5 people have tested positive for #COVID19 on SeaDream 1, the first cruise ship to embark on a voyage in the Caribbean since the #coronavirus shut down the cruise industry.

[Holman]

Last voyage of the MAGA Celeste.

[malchior]

NBC News

The news came four days into the ship's seven-day voyage after it left Barbados on Saturday with 53 passengers on board. It had traveled to Saint Vincent, Canouan Island, Tobago Cays, and Union Island in the Grenadines and was scheduled to end on Nov. 14 but returned to Barbados early.

Sloan told NBC's "Today" show that the ship came up with an "incredibly rigorous system" to try and keep Covid-19 cases off the vessel. Everyone was tested before arriving in Barbados and again at the pier and received negative results.

Passengers also did not interact with locals during their stops and were shuttled to empty beaches to either relax or do an excursion.

The ship was planning on doing a third round of tests on Wednesday when the passenger went to the ship's doctor and said he was feeling sick, Sloan said.

[malchior]

The NY Times *and* the Washington Post just reported the total today was 150K. The exponential factor is really kicking in.

[Enough]

The NY Times *and* the Washington Post just reported the total today was 150K. The exponential factor is really kicking in.

With the current trajectory, I wonder what the doubling time is now?

[Defiant]

With the current trajectory, I wonder what the doubling time is now?

I don't know how long it will take to double, but we had about half the cumulative cases sometime in mid-August.

[Enough]

Ivies are cancelling winter athletics and delaying spring sports. Many other college games of import are delayed or canceled... wait I thought the someone saved college football?

[hitbyambulance]

Alaska actually introduced some restrictions today. Washington state will have new ones announced on Monday

[LawBeefaroni]

Alaska actually introduced some restrictions today. Washington state will have new ones announced on Monday

Chicago is stay-at-home starting Monday.

[RunningMn9]

Everyone in the house tested negative today, so we made our contribution to reducing the positivity rate in NJ!

[Kraken]

On today's grocery run I noticed that all of the traditional Thanksgiving foods are prominently displayed, as usual. IDK what kind of precautions people will be taking, but the huge case of big frozen turkeys isn't encouraging. This is a really bad time for a dinner party.

Wife and I stopped being invited to family dinner five or six years ago and started our own tradition of seeing a movie and making nachos, the traditional Wampanoag dish. This year we'll rent a movie at home, but I'm still making nachos, dammit.

[msteelers]

We’ve already told the family that we won’t be part of any gathering, but I’m still planning on cooking the big traditional dinner even if it is just the two of us.

[raydude]

I had to break the news to my family that I cannot in good conscience have us going anywhere until next year. I did say we can choose to eat whatever we want for Thanksgiving.

My girls have requested lobster for Thanksgiving, so we’re having at least two whole lobster and a roasted duck.

[hitbyambulance]

i decided to check up on what Dr. Acton was up to lately and i found this article from a while back:

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/pol ... /42156557/

On March 12, she estimated as many as 100,000 Ohioans could be infected with the respiratory disease – 1% of the state's population. At the time, Ohio had just a few confirmed cases.

The number shocked Ohioans and drew the ire of national conservative publications. Acton walked it back the next day. She explained her "guesstimate" was based on researchers' assumptions that Ohio had community spread, up to 70% of people would get the virus by the end of the year, and cases would double every six days.

emphasis on "The number shocked Ohioans and drew the ire of national conservative publications." needless to say, the number of infections in Ohio is even a biiiiit higher than that now

https://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-he ... -was-right

[Kraken]

We’ve already told the family that we won’t be part of any gathering, but I’m still planning on cooking the big traditional dinner even if it is just the two of us.

I was never a huge fan of the traditional spread, but I always loved the leftovers.

After Wife's family banished us from their celebration I thought about making the whole Tgiving for the two of us, but Wife doesn't eat turkey and my half-sized oven can't handle more than two things at once. Too much work for too little payoff. Now I'm thinking about getting takeout this year. And I'll still make nachos to compensate for the lack of leftovers.

[ImLawBoy]

Can I tell you guys a secret?


Promise you won't go blabbing it about?

Spoiler:

My wife and I are actually kind of excited to just do holidays at home with us and kids and not having to worry about the rest of the relatives.

[Skinypupy]

We now have conspiracy theorists attempting to sneak into ICU wards so they can see what’s “really going on”.

JFC, Utah County. Get your shit together.

[raydude]

We now have conspiracy theorists attempting to sneak into ICU wards so they can see what’s “really going on”.

JFC, Utah County. Get your shit together.

Those CTs will eventually have first hand knowledge of how full those ICUs are.

[Formix]

I feel like "We deserve to go extinct" is the sub-title for 2020:The Movie.

[Paingod]

This is appallingly bad, see thread:

https://twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

https://twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

Having worked at a jail, it's safe to say that no prison in the US is even remotely equipped to handle more than a tiny percentage of the population getting sick at once. Where I worked we could house over 300 inmates and had 4 hospital beds. I'd wager this prison simply locked people in their cells and tried telemedicine to keep costs down.

[LordMortis]

Can I tell you guys a secret?


Promise you won't go blabbing it about?

Spoiler:

My wife and I are actually kind of excited to just do holidays at home with us and kids and not having to worry about the rest of the relatives.

I don't want to be around all too many relatives I consider politically extremely on the right but I do want to spend time with my parents. Something we've rarely done in 2020.

[Smoove_B]

Dinner parties and game nights are fueling the outbreak:

Many earlier coronavirus clusters were linked to nursing homes and crowded nightclubs. But public health officials nationwide say case investigations are increasingly leading them to small, private social gatherings. This behind-doors transmission trend reflects pandemic fatigue and widening social bubbles, experts say — and is particularly insidious because it is so difficult to police and likely to increase as temperatures drop and holidays approach.

...

On Thursday, the nation passed another grim milestone in the pandemic, setting records for cases and hospitalizations, with 152,391 new cases and 66,606 people currently hospitalized. In Chicago, the mayor said that starting Monday, residents should leave home only to go to work or school, or for essential needs, such as seeking medical care or getting groceries.

...

“Earlier in the outbreak, much of the growth in new daily cases was being driven by focal outbreaks — long-term care facilities, things of that nature,” said Nirav Shah, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Maine, where cases have soared in the past two weeks. “Now, the kitchen table is a place of risk.”

[Smoove_B]

Update on the wedding that was held in Maine earlier this summer:

Only 55 people attended the Aug. 7 reception at the Big Moose Inn in Millinocket. But one of those guests arrived with a coronavirus infection. Over the next 38 days, the virus spread to 176 other people. Seven of them died.

None of the victims who lost their lives had attended the party.

...

To the Maine health officials who wrote the report, the lessons are clear: Wear a mask. Practice social distancing. And for goodness sake, don’t go to work when you are sick.

“Community gatherings such as weddings, birthday parties, church events, and funerals have the potential to be SARS-CoV-2 super-spreading events,” they remind readers. And the risk is higher when people gather indoors, they added — something that is likely to occur over the winter holidays.

The article is based off the official MMWR from the CDC, for those inclined to read the details.

[Smoove_B]

Ed Yong, continuing to deliver - The third surge is breaking healthcare workers:

In the months since March, many Americans have habituated to the horrors of the pandemic. They process the election’s ramifications. They plan for the holidays. But health-care workers do not have the luxury of looking away: They’re facing a third pandemic surge that is bigger and broader than the previous two. In the U.S., states now report more people in the hospital with COVID-19 than at any other point this year—and 40 percent more than just two weeks ago.

...

The entire state of Iowa is now out of staffed beds, Eli Perencevich, an infectious-disease doctor at the University of Iowa, told me. Worse is coming. Iowa is accumulating more than 3,600 confirmed cases every day; relative to its population, that’s more than twice the rate Arizona experienced during its summer peak, “when their system was near collapse,” Perencevich said. With only lax policies in place, those cases will continue to rise. Hospitalizations lag behind cases by about two weeks; by Thanksgiving, today’s soaring cases will be overwhelming hospitals that already cannot cope. “The wave hasn’t even crashed down on us yet,” Perencevich said. “It keeps rising and rising, and we’re all running on fear. The health-care system in Iowa is going to collapse, no question.”

...

If death rates have fallen thanks to increasing medical savvy, they might rise again as nurses and doctors burn out. “If we can get patients into staffed beds, I feel like they’re doing better,” Perencevich said. “But that requires a functional health-care system, and we’re at the point where we aren’t going to have that.”

...

As hard as the work fatigue is, the “societal fatigue” is harder, said Hatton, the Utah pulmonary specialist. He is tired of walking out of an ICU where COVID-19 has killed another patient, and walking into a grocery store where he hears people saying it doesn’t exist. Health-care workers and public-health officials have received threats and abusive messages accusing them of fearmongering. They’ve watched as friends have adopted Donald Trump’s lies about doctors juking the hospitalization numbers to get more money. They’ve pleaded with family members to wear masks and physically distance, lest they end up competing for ICU beds that no longer exist. “Nurses have been the most trusted profession for 18 years in a row, which is now bullshit because no one is listening to us,” Neville said.

...

But the best strategy remains the obvious one: Keep people from getting infected at all. Once again, the fate of the U.S. health-care system depends on the collective action of its citizens. Once again, the nation must flatten the curve. This need not involve a lockdown. We now know that the coronavirus mostly spreads through the air, and does so easily when people spend prolonged periods together in poorly ventilated areas. People can reduce their risk by wearing masks and avoiding indoor spaces such as restaurants, bars, and gyms, where the possibility of transmission is especially high (no matter how often these places clean their surfaces). Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, for which several generations will travel around the country for days of close indoor contact and constant conversation, will be risky too.

Preliminary results suggest that at least one effective vaccine is on the way. The choices made in the coming weeks will influence how many Americans die before they have a chance to receive it, and how many health-care workers are broken in the process.

[Kraken]

Massachusetts recorded its 10,000th death yesterday.

[Defiant]

Dinner parties and game nights are fueling the outbreak:

Well, I did my part by having cancelled the weekly game nights I run since back in early March. Some of my friends are still gaming in person, but they're doing it out doors with games that can be played while socially distancing (eg, werewolf).

[Jaymann]

This just in: Rand Paul is a shit stain on the butthole of humanity.

[hepcat]

...and another fruit basket has been sent to Paul's neighbor.

[El Guapo]

This just in: Rand Paul is a shit stain on the butthole of humanity.

More than usual?

[stessier]

This just in: Rand Paul is a shit stain on the butthole of humanity.

More than usual?

Maybe this?

• Sen. Rand Paul claimed that the millions of people who have survived COVID-19 should "celebrate" because they are "now immune" from the virus.
• "We should tell them to celebrate. We should tell them to throw away their masks, go to restaurants, live again, because these people are now immune," he said on Fox News on Thursday.
• His comments contradict public health guidance. There is no evidence people who have recovered from the disease have established immunity from it.
• The Republican senator of Kentucky also took aim at the country's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci. "He also tends to gloss over the science," Paul said.

[Jaymann]

Yeah, that was the latest heinous fuckwittery.

[hitbyambulance]

are my calculations right? 12.8% of the total population of North Dakota and 14.5% of South Dakota have now been infected with COVID-19. (and these are known and officially recorded cases, only)

[Defiant]

are my calculations right? 12.8% of the total population of North Dakota and 14.5% of South Dakota have now been infected with COVID-19. (and these are known and officially recorded cases, only)

I got ~8% and ~7% respectively (since the beginning of the pandemic).

My work:
60,602/762,062
62,327/884,659

[malchior]

Using Covidtracking.com and Google population data I get:

• South Dakota: 60716 cases / 884659 * 100 = ~6.8%

• North Dakota: 59713 cases / 762062 * 100 = ~7.8%

* cases are probable + confirmed as reported by the SD or just confirmed in ND

[hitbyambulance]

i kinda thought i was doing it wrong..

Iowa and Wisconsin are even higher, actually

[Smoove_B]

There really is nothing like completely undermining a message here. I don't care if this is 99% safe, the optics on this are terrible - particularly while people are legitimately struggling with months of self-imposed isolation. I don't understand why or how anyone would think this is a good look right now. It depresses and frustrates people like me and gives fuel to the people raging against government. There is absolutely no upside this provides to the public.

https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status ... 0262765568

House Dem and GOP leaders are holding respective dinners for new members. .@SpeakerPelosi told me it’s safe. “It’s very spaced,” she said and there is enhanced ventilation and the Capitol physician signed off.

[Defiant]

It looks like NYC will probably close schools, but leave indoor dining open. That's an odd decision - my understanding is that indoor dining is a much bigger source of spread.

Mayor de Blasio urged New York City public school parents to plan for school closures as early as Monday, as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to surge throughout the Big Apple.

As the rate of coronavirus transmission climbs in the city, many have also questioned why gyms remain open and indoor dining continues, at least for now, as schools are on the brink of closure.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html