Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:23 pm

Little Raven wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:20 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:06 pmI would think that belief that a vaccine is around the corner would *improve* safety measure compliance. If you think a vaccine is going to be available next month, then you want to be extra cautious as no one wants to get COVID the night before getting the vaccine. If you think a vaccine is never going to be available and you'll get it sooner or later, on the other hand, then might as well just live your life, right?
I agree. When I talk to my friends that are...less rigorous...about COVID safety, their biggest argument is usually something like "I was good for 6 months, it totally sucked, and I'm not going to do that forever. Nobody can tell me when this is going to be over, so I'm just going to accept that there is an additional risk to going to that party and go anyway." I think that if someone could credibly say "Ok, I know it will suck, but be good for another 2 months and you'll have a vaccine." then they would probably get right back on board.

(Needless to say, all of my friends who fall into that category are below 40 and in good health.)

And yet as we enter a shutdown/stay at home order here in Chicago, all I hear is "We have a vaccine, why is the mayor/governor forcing businesses to close?!??!! We should he reopening!"

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:53 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:22 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:06 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:42 pm The one thing that's circulating now among my peers that's quite concerning is that the news of the vaccines is undermining the current advice (wear a mask, maintain distance, lower contact time, etc...) as people are going to mistakenly believe the vaccine is right around the corner and will be readily available - so do whatever you want.

I would think that belief that a vaccine is around the corner would *improve* safety measure compliance. If you think a vaccine is going to be available next month, then you want to be extra cautious as no one wants to get COVID the night before getting the vaccine. If you think a vaccine is never going to be available and you'll get it sooner or later, on the other hand, then might as well just live your life, right?

Obviously people are crazy and stupid and will do all sorts of crazy things, but I think the average response would be closer to the above.
If someone thinks a vaccine is going to be available next month the calculus changes from "we're in the middle of the shit" to "we're exiting the shit." It's when people drop their guard. Plus it won't be a month for most people. It will be 5 or 6 or more. Putting an expiration on COVID is a terrible strategy.

I don't envy the people in charge of coordinating public messaging on this, as it's hard. I 100% agree that saying something like "we'll have a vaccine in X months so just hang tight until then" would also be a mistake, as there's uncertainty in timing anyway, and you risk that month or so passing and then people just saying "fuck it, no one knows anything, let's party." But conversely leaving people with the sense that there's no end in sight has a lot of risk too.

So something along the lines of "there's light at the end of the tunnel. I know this sucks, but vaccines are in sight, and we need to keep up vigilance between now and then so that too many people don't die unnecessarily" seems like the right message overall.

Also, no matter how perfectly it gets messaged, at the end of the day there's some amount of noncompliance which is just a dressed up version of "Partying is fun, I want to party, so I'm just going to do it and figure out my justification for it later."

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:31 pm

NBC on in the background says wide public distribution is likely for April with regard to Moderna which is easier to distribute than Pfizer. Not sure who the expert was or what her credentials are. I'm sure they talked about earlier distribution time lines to front line workers higher vulnerability but I'm working so paying attention to the TV is limited.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:40 pm

LordMortis wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:31 pm NBC on in the background says wide public distribution is likely for April with regard to Moderna which is easier to distribute than Pfizer. Not sure who the expert was or what her credentials are. I'm sure they talked about earlier distribution time lines to front line workers higher vulnerability but I'm working so paying attention to the TV is limited.

Fauci could have been the source as I've heard him say it.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:45 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:40 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:31 pm NBC on in the background says wide public distribution is likely for April with regard to Moderna which is easier to distribute than Pfizer. Not sure who the expert was or what her credentials are. I'm sure they talked about earlier distribution time lines to front line workers higher vulnerability but I'm working so paying attention to the TV is limited.
Fauci could have been the source as I've heard him say it.

That's when he said it would start. Said it would likely take all of second and third quarter and that's if people cooperated and supply lines worked.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:49 pm

I just plan on being in full restriction mode through the end of 2021. If suddenly next summer things turn around and the guidelines are (legitimately) lifted, it'll be a great bonus. But if not I won't be caught off guard by the thought of another eight months of masks and hunkering.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:50 pm

stessier wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:45 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:40 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:31 pm NBC on in the background says wide public distribution is likely for April with regard to Moderna which is easier to distribute than Pfizer. Not sure who the expert was or what her credentials are. I'm sure they talked about earlier distribution time lines to front line workers higher vulnerability but I'm working so paying attention to the TV is limited.
Fauci could have been the source as I've heard him say it.
That's when he said it would start. Said it would likely take all of second and third quarter and that's if people cooperated and supply lines worked.

"For those that want to be vaccinated, ... by April you can be vaccinated."

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:50 pm

Good interview with Fauci by Gates and checks notes Rashida Jones today:

For the non-Spotifiers:
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Podcast/What ... r-COVID-19

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:03 pm

Ill likely wait until flu season to get one...so around Oct.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:20 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:50 pm Good interview with Fauci by Gates and checks notes Rashida Jones today:

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:15 pm

I just witnessed a complete meltdown in one of my friend chats. NJ just announced restrictions of no more than 10. One of our group announced this was silly and he was going to promptly ignore it for his 2-year old's birthday party. Several of the group are EMT or Nursing. They are lambasting him while he throws out silly excuses like how his area is doing better and respects social distancing. This doesn't surprise me tbh - he has been slowly falling into the right-wing media sphere for awhile. It feels like he is moments away from saying it isn't a real risk.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:18 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:15 pm I just witnessed a complete meltdown in one of my friend chats. NJ just announced restrictions of no more than 10. One of our group announced this was silly and he was going to promptly ignore it for his 2-year old's birthday party. Several of the group are EMT or Nursing. They are lambasting him while he throws out silly excuses like how his area is doing better and respects social distancing. This doesn't surprise me tbh - he has been slowly falling into the right-wing media sphere for awhile. It feels like he is moments away from saying it isn't a real risk.

Supremely selfish. It's not even about the 2-YO, the kid would be happy with an empty box to play with and a spoonful of frosting and won't remember it in 3 years anyway. It's all about the parents wanting a party. At least admit that.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:22 pm

Yup - that was an actual quote - "Would <name redacted> even remember this COVID super spreader party...". It got heated. I'm expecting these folks not to talk to for awhile with him.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:30 pm

More of this, please.

https://twitter.com/PaulaReidCBS/status ... 2419064832

NEW: Dr Scott Atlas refuses to answer questions about why he called on citizens to “rise-up” against new COVID restrictions, especially since he had no training in infectious diseases.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:39 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:42 pm Looking forward to reading about how much stock the CEO of Moderna magically sold today on the news - sales that were set up back in August.

Again, science by press release. I'll wait until the people waaaaay smarter than I am get to see the actual study data and can tell us whether or not we can be get excited.

There's a reason these studies get announced on a Monday morning...

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:32 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:23 pm
And yet as we enter a shutdown/stay at home order here in Chicago, all I hear is "We have a vaccine, why is the mayor/governor forcing businesses to close?!??!! We should he reopening!"

LOTS of people are ignorant enough to believe that a vaccine is a cure.

"If I catch it, I'll just get the vaccine and I'll be fine!"

Education is hard.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:48 pm

I spend Christmas every year with my 85 year old father back in Ohio. He lives on his own and it means a lot to me and to him. But we discussed postponing Christmas this year until the spring (hopefully). We’re playing it by ear for now though. Meanwhile my brother is driving across the west right now. He’s posting pictures of himself at gatherings with no mask. And he expects to visit pop at Christmas as well. I’m a little angry right now at him.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:12 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:30 pm Two cases (teacher, student) at the kids preschool. He's not immediately affected by the floor closure (he's onna different floor) but since teachers float they're still trying to determine whether they need to shut the whole place down. I trust their judgement since we have 2 infectious disease specialists advising the center.

They ended up closing it on Thursday after I posted. Just got word that a kid in his class tested positive on Saturday.

We're still considered low risk since there are like 5 kids to a room, masks, etc. But I'm probably working from home for a few days.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:54 pm

More like this

https://twitter.com/SenSherrodBrown/sta ... 2210209793

Once again, I asked my Republican colleagues to stop endangering all the Senate workers - and simply wear a mask when presiding over the Senate.

Once again, they refused.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:05 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:39 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:42 pm Looking forward to reading about how much stock the CEO of Moderna magically sold today on the news - sales that were set up back in August.

Again, science by press release. I'll wait until the people waaaaay smarter than I am get to see the actual study data and can tell us whether or not we can be get excited.
There's a reason these studies get announced on a Monday morning...

ehhhh, the CEO would have to be really stupid and reckless to trade in advance of the news. That kind of thing really wouldn't be very hard to catch. And August wouldn't be nearly long enough ago to insulate him from liability for a trade like that.

We'll see how it pans out. If the company didn't believe that it would hold up it'd be a little reckless to burn its credibility like this (though it's always possible that they got a little ahead of their skis or something).

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:19 pm

Didn’t the Pfizer CEO just do exactly that?

I don’t know enough about how these studies are conducted to know whether to trust these numbers, but I’m hopeful that they hold up under scrutiny.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:54 am

They. Are. A. Death. Cult.

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1328502026381176832

COVID Task Force advisor Dr. Scott Atlas argues visiting your frail grandparents for Thanksgiving is fine because it might be their last one anyway.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:57 am

I think I've reported two of his tweets over the last week. It's starting to blur together now. He did lose his blue check mark on Twitter (I think) because of the amount of crap he's been posting and the number of people reporting him. He's a terrible human being but apparently comfortable with getting in front of the camera and spewing nonsense. I'm looking forward to never hearing a thing from him ever again real soon.

In different but more uplifting news, let's all just pause to soak in the fact that the Moderna vaccine was partially funded by Dolly Parton.

https://twitter.com/MeadeKrosby/status/ ... 2685121537

Fact-checking this was worth it just to see @DollyParton in the acknowledgments of a @NEJM article. And I thought I couldn’t love her more.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:17 am

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:57 am I think I've reported two of his tweets over the last week. It's starting to blur together now. He did lose his blue check mark on Twitter (I think) because of the amount of crap he's been posting and the number of people reporting him. He's a terrible human being but apparently comfortable with getting in front of the camera and spewing nonsense. I'm looking forward to never hearing a thing from him ever again real soon.

You know you're bad when your alma mater (Stanford) is forced to put out an official statement saying "yeah, that guy sucks and we don't claim him".

The university has been asked to comment on recent statements made by Dr. Scott Atlas, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who is on leave of absence from that position.

Stanford’s position on managing the pandemic in our community is clear. We support using masks, social distancing, and conducting surveillance and diagnostic testing. We also believe in the importance of strictly following the guidance of local and state health authorities.

Dr. Atlas has expressed views that are inconsistent with the university’s approach in response to the pandemic. Dr. Atlas’s statements reflect his personal views, not those of the Hoover Institution or the university.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:34 pm

The TrumplodytesTM are saying people in Michigan need to "rise up" against state restrictions. Kinda like the walking dead rose up.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:55 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:57 am

In different but more uplifting news, let's all just pause to soak in the fact that the Moderna vaccine was partially funded by Dolly Parton.

https://twitter.com/MeadeKrosby/status/ ... 2685121537

Fact-checking this was worth it just to see @DollyParton in the acknowledgments of a @NEJM article. And I thought I couldn’t love her more.

Well, yeah. Dollywood.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:57 pm

Also, Buffy

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:00 pm

Digging a bit further, the Dolly Parton Research Fund contributed $1M. Not chump change but Moderna got $2,600M (aka $2.6B from the federal government alone for the vaccine development.

The articles crediting Parton as a crucial contributor are feel good but mostly false.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:20 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:00 pm Digging a bit further, the Dolly Parton Research Fund contributed $1M. Not chump change but Moderna got $2,600M (aka $2.6B from the federal government alone for the vaccine development.

The articles crediting Parton as a crucial contributor are feel good but mostly false.

Yeah, I mean it was clear that she wasn't (couldn't have been) a major funder relative to the full cost of the drug. But it's still cool, in a small-potatoes sort of way.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:22 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:00 pmThe articles crediting Parton as a crucial contributor are feel good but mostly false.

I could use more feel-good right now.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:29 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:22 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:00 pmThe articles crediting Parton as a crucial contributor are feel good but mostly false.
I could use more feel-good right now.

WORLD SAVED BY COUNTRY MUSIC STAR!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:33 pm

I drank the last of my feel good last night. Have to venture out into the wasteland today for more.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:21 pm

All 50 states reporting increase in cases. Insert testing joke here.

All 50 states plus Washington, D.C., the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam have reported an increase in coronavirus cases from over the past 14 days, the latest NBC News data showed Tuesday.

And in a dozen of those states -- Vermont, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, Kansas, Pennsylvania and New York -– infections have spiked in the last two weeks, meaning there has been a 100 percent or more increase in confirmed cases over 14 days.

With so many new cases, hospitals across the country -- and the doctors treating the deluge of new patients -- were reaching the breaking point.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:41 pm

Maryland is going back into Stage 2 of its Coronavirus restrictions starting Friday afternoon.

I would be surprised if Virginia isn't too far behind, even though the state just put in a few extra restrictions on Stage 3 this past weekend.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:47 pm

pr0ner wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:41 pm Maryland is going back into Stage 2 of its Coronavirus restrictions starting Friday afternoon.

I would be surprised if Virginia isn't too far behind, even though the state just put in a few extra restrictions on Stage 3 this past weekend.

Colorado just added a new level today, because our Governor really doesn't want a lockdown but the prior criteria had several counties past-due for one.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:49 pm

So you have counties that are designated as Serious and Super-Serious?

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:53 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:49 pm So you have counties that are designated as Serious and Super-Serious?

Basically.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:54 pm

The next level is: We mean it this time!

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:59 pm

coopasonic wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:54 pm The next level is: We mean it this time!

Pretty sure that the next level is the Susan Collins designation.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:59 pm

coopasonic wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:54 pm The next level is: We mean it this time!

I mean, I genuinely feel for Polis. He's in a difficult spot given Colorado's Blue-by-population-but-very-very-red-by-area nature. But it's hard not to see his actions lately as increasingly accurate levels of this...