Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:39 pm

My "professionally managed" account did about 28%.

My speculative account did over 50%. Not counting bitcoin.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:07 pm

And what if you include bitcoin? Must make the eyes bleed.

For the duration of 2020, my 'ho-hum' index-only accounts rose by 15-20%. My overall self-managed accounts return was 335%, and my TSLA-heavy bucket was up... more than that. Of course, TSLA did a whole lotta nothin' for a few years prior to 2020, so those returns aren't quite as impressive as those %ages would seem.

What a strange year.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:25 pm

Haven't done the BTC calculation. I have been buying every week but my transactions are in BTC so I have to go back and calculate. Totally guessing but average cost around $9-10K per BTC?
Maybe 10% of total speculative.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:54 pm

My 401k made very close to twice as much as I did in 2020... and I am still waiting for the crash.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 pm

coopasonic wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:54 pm My 401k made very close to twice as much as I did in 2020... and I am still waiting for the crash.

I really thought March was gonna be a sign for the whole year. It's crazy how wrong that was.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:30 am

CRON up big on Dem wins. Same with guns and ammo.

BTC hit $35.5K overnight. Currently $34somethingK.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:58 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:30 am Same with guns and ammo.

I was thinking about that when I woke up this morning and assumed this would be the case.

I shouldn't have, but I bought 100 shares of BGS when it took a $1.5+ dip on a downgrade from Credit Suisse, whom I think are generally hacks. But I did anyway as I had been watching them for a while, so I pulled money from "catch VTI on the downturn fund" that will need to be replenished over time. That same evening they got a bounce from the Cramer effect and went right back to where they were. I should just turn around and sell it right back today but I was watching BGS for a long position, as I do for everything I buy. BGS still look good to me but I already put in too much money I shouldn't have.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:14 am

Looks like real money finally discovered POWW. That one has worked out well.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:27 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:41 am

Looking at JWS right now. I think it comes back a bit so waiting but it's $15 or $20 fairly easily.

$16 today. Didn't have time to set up a big position but in at $13.80 average. Will keep buying if it comes back a bit.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:11 pm

R&P in my OIC

Spoiler:

It's a good a problem to have, I think. I'd rather make money while leaving money on the table then lose money trying to be the smartest guy in the room. Except for my index investments. I never should have put them up, now I feel like I'm chasing them to make sure someone doesn't strike the option. I keep making money but I fear one day someone is going to make a crazy strike and I'll suddenly have a tax liability that will be painful for money I wasn't ready to cash in yet.

And speaking of, remind me to do taxes early this year. I imagine I'm in for a long hard education this year. I do wonder how all of these active COVID sportsbook traders are going to file for the insane short term gains they made in 2020.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:18 pm

May be unwise but I'm choosing today to get out of positions I chose in haste long ago, like VYMI. Everything I own it sitting up 2% or higher on the day. Some things are 7 or 10 or 12%. It's nuts. So I'm cashing on things I've been long on but never very happy with.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:52 pm

BTC $36.1K.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:49 pm

$37K.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:12 pm

TSLA just cracked $800.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:14 pm

pr0ner wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:12 pm TSLA just cracked $800.

And Musk became the richest man alive, at least for the moment.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:20 pm

And to pick up from Lawbeef, BTC is at $39.3k

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:23 pm

Nothing at all wrong with all this, hours after a coup.

Everything is fine.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:27 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:23 pm Nothing at all wrong with all this, hours after a coup.

Everything is fine.

BTC makes some sense in light of DC. The faith in the USD had to take a hit and China is heavily pushing the Yuan as a more reliable reserve currency. They are giving the hard sale to all sovereign wealth funds. Meanwhile banks are buying billions in BTC and there's even a lot of gold investments rotating to BTC.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:41 pm

True, and I'd buy that explanation more if SPY and all my positions weren't also well in the green today.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:42 pm

What civil unrest = stock market all time high doesn't jive for you?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:45 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:41 pm True, and I'd buy that explanation more if SPY and all my positions weren't also well in the green today.

US dollar goes down, stocks go up (inUSD). Not the only reason but a big one IMO.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:15 am

TSLA $870 on Standard-Range Y release last night.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:25 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:15 am TSLA $870 on Standard-Range Y release last night.

That's $4350, pre split? How many multiples of $1000 did you need again? That's nearly 20x what I bought at around this time last year (or is that more'n 20x?). CNBC last night noted $40,000 bitcoin has been gaining slower that TSLA.

Also my covered calls are almost all going negative faster than their corresponding stocks are going positive today. In more than one case the stock is down on the day but the call price is going up. That's a bit nutty.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:59 am

It's crazy, for sure. IV still isn't near what it was a few months ago, but I've been harvesting via CCs pretty successfully lately.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:17 pm

Ok, we're through the looking glass now.

LMFAO.

LMF Acquisition Opportunities, a blank check company formed by LM Funding America targeting the financial services sector, filed on Friday with the SEC to raise up to $75 million in an initial public offering.

The Tampa, FL-based company plans to raise $75 million by offering 7.5 million units at $10. Each unit will consist of one share of common stock and one whole warrant, exercisable at $11.50. At the proposed deal size, LMF Acquisition Opportunities will command a $95 million market value.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:57 pm

BTC goes above $41k over the weekend. Briefly dipped under $32k today, hearkening back to the old days of Jan 4. That's just a heart attack.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:22 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:17 pm Ok, we're through the looking glass now.

LMFAO.

I'm holding out for ROFLCOPTER.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:26 pm

Anyone want to make an anecdotal investing case for NVDA?

Notwithstanding today's news about the self-driving car stuff and their AI, what about a captive video card market that will pay anything at this point? With tariffs imposed on GPU's, the already overly hot prices of cards will now go up another ...15%? I don't see the supply/demand problem resolving for many many months if not a year or more.

I think we are in for long term sky high GPU prices, and NVDA can almost make as much as much $$ as they want (based on how many GPU's they can produce of course)

No idea what % of their profit is derived from their GPU's, but I have a feeling it's about to jump significantly in the next several quarters at least.

Ironically NVDA is one of the first stocks I bought way back in...the early 2000's. Sold it at $33 (just looked it up) thinking I was an investing genius for so quickly having gained 50-60%!

I guess the same argument can be made for AMD. The investing idea here is to take advantage of a pretty unique, CRITICAL shortage of retail video cards, no matter the maker (but really only two major ones of course).

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:33 pm

I'm too deep into TSM and UMC to add more in the space but it's a decent thesis. I prefer AMD but they're kind of the market darling right now so NVDA may have a discount.

Sold most of my SWBI today.
Bought some GBTC.
Added to JWS.

SIGL is ridiculous. It is established that the runup was on Musk followers/hoodies misidentifying a company he mentioned but now everyone is just running with it. Know the ponzi, ride the ponzi.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:35 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:26 pm Anyone want to make an anecdotal investing case for NVDA?

Global supply chain stopping of production across the board for semiconductor shortage where video processing is the heart of the need?

From cars to appliances beyond traditional computers. I wanted in at $300 but couldn't find the money but today...

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... s-75140296

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:57 pm

NVDA up 4.7% as of now...on this news I assume: "NIO Partners with NVIDIA to Develop a New Generation of Automated Driving Electric Vehicles"

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:58 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:33 pm SIGL is ridiculous. It is established that the runup was on Musk followers/hoodies misidentifying a company he mentioned but now everyone is just running with it. Know the ponzi, ride the ponzi.

CNBC is just about to report on this. I heard it in the background.

Also, with my cash starting to pile up looking at the values of these companies, what is the drawback to buying then then selling a stock short term well ITM for a nominal profit aside from the risk of price tanking? Say you can get a reputable stock that's going no where from $20. You pick up 100 units for $2000, then sell a January 15th $18 call for $2.50, so you pick up $50 short term gains for five days on $2,000. Is there something to that equation I'm not understanding?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:52 pm

LordMortis wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:58 pm

Also, with my cash starting to pile up looking at the values of these companies, what is the drawback to buying then then selling a stock short term well ITM for a nominal profit aside from the risk of price tanking? Say you can get a reputable stock that's going no where from $20. You pick up 100 units for $2000, then sell a January 15th $18 call for $2.50, so you pick up $50 short term gains for five days on $2,000. Is there something to that equation I'm not understanding?

You're probably not going to get a 25% premium on a low volatility stock with 3 days to expiration. If you do get that premium, it implies higher volatility or an event like earnings before expiration. In that case, you max gain is $50 and your max risk is $1,950. Granted reality is it's probably more realistic that it's $50/$200 but you get the idea.

Right now F is $9.27 and Jan 15 $8.5 calls are $0.775. That's almost zero premium. SWBI is 19.95 and $17.5 calls are $2.475. That's a $0.025 premium.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:39 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:14 am Looks like real money finally discovered POWW. That one has worked out well.

4.73 today. Got in around 2.25 just about a month ago. Sold half around 3.20. Tempted to sell half again and keep the remaining as a permanent position.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:45 am

SLGD isn't one I found but a friend is playing it. He does low float with volume indicators. In at around $2.40 avg, we'll see what happens. Last few days we've been about 20% of the total volume, if that's any indication of the low volume/low float on this one. Not for the faint of heart.

Example: I put in a buy above the ask and got a partial fill for like 341 of 1,000 shares. Bid and ask both go up like $0.40.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:47 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:39 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:14 am Looks like real money finally discovered POWW. That one has worked out well.
4.73 today. Got in around 2.25 just about a month ago. Sold half around 3.20. Tempted to sell half again and keep the remaining as a permanent position.

Edit: also "stable" sorts I might have put up as an example went away yesterday before your posted but as of this post POWW can be bought for $5.03 and a $5.00 option for Friday can be sold for $.41. That's a bit more risk than I was talking about though. Like a lot. I would have to move out Feb 19th now to find less risky ITM buys to convert to covered calls, but even then a month is an eternity in this market, so that changes a lot. (Though I gotta say I did break down and buy VALE yesterday (which is not as stable as I would have liked to exemplify) and put it up at $18.50 call for Friday. If it sells, I'm up $60 short term gains. If it doesn't I'm comfortable with holding it... and putting up a February call for the same...)

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:55 pm

So I shed myself of my Ford (F) nightmare a while ago, so my only remaining auto holding is GM.

Quandary:
I have a full position (as defined by me)
It just today hit my long term target (I've held for a few years)
Divvy ex-date is March, but it's pretty small, so that is not too much of a factor here
Current PEG of .82 (!)
News on its apparently secret til now EV platform for logistics companies (Fedex is first cusotmer) has it up 6% today

I'm flummoxed.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:33 pm

POWW is now $5.41 and flirted in the $5.7x's today. :envy:

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:14 am

LordMortis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:33 pm POWW is now $5.41 and flirted in the $5.7x's today. :envy:

I held through. Quite a day yesterday.

INTC announced this morning that Bob Swan is gone, Pat Gelsinger to take over in mid Feb. Up 12% pre-market.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:49 am

POWW $7.10.