Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Grifman]

Took my mom for her first vaccine shot on Friday, pretty smooth except that when we got there they said we needed prior permission from her doctor, which they has just realized before they emailed all the forms. They said we just need to call her doctor, get his permission, and then tell them We pulled over, called the doctor and got permission, then got back in line (if we couldn't reach the doctor we agreed we were just going to say we had permission and get it done anyway). Second shot is already scheduled in 3 weeks at the same time. Then she'll be relatively safe!

[LawBeefaroni]

Chicago public school teachers not going to show up for work but indoor dining and drinking is reopened! We're finally done with COVID!!!!!

[Smoove_B]

Chicago public school teachers not going to show up for work but indoor dining and drinking is reopened!

Just as an FYI, the general consensus in my profession is that this is possibly the single worst time to have people eating/drinking indoors and unmasked in bars and restaurants.

[Daehawk]

Saw some review of a local auto parts shop. Guy said parts were cheap but the workers were virus deniers, maskless, and talked down to those with masks. NAPA shop too.

[Kraken]

Chicago public school teachers not going to show up for work but indoor dining and drinking is reopened!

Just as an FYI, the general consensus in my profession is that this is possibly the single worst time to have people eating/drinking indoors and unmasked in bars and restaurants.

I just ordered a 50-pack of surgical masks. Time to start wearing one under my cloth masks. Grocery shopping is my biggest exposure. I'm in a big building with maybe 100 other people for 90 minutes once a week, breathing the same air and touching the same surfaces, and I'm increasingly uncomfortable with that recently. If the vaccine comes to the rescue and makes the masks unnecessary, I'm out ten bucks.

I worry that this virus is going to evolve past our vaccine, they'll have to reformulate, and we'll have to start over.

[Grifman]

I ordered a set of KN95 masks from Amazon. I've read that with the new, more highly infectious version of Covid, cloth masks are no longer sufficient, you need N95 or KN95.

[LordMortis]

I just ordered a 50-pack of surgical masks. Time to start wearing one under my cloth masks. Grocery shopping is my biggest exposure. I'm in a big building with maybe 100 other people for 90 minutes once a week, breathing the same air and touching the same surfaces, and I'm increasingly uncomfortable with that recently. If the vaccine comes to the rescue and makes the masks unnecessary, I'm out ten bucks.

Also my biggest worry. Though even at Costco which is my slowest shop (but also the most open with the widest aisles and highest ceilings) might be about 40 minutes nowadays. I haven't shopped in nearly a year. I know what I want. I get in, I get what I plan, I get out. The days of 3 hours Meijer visits where I sale shop and review pricing and coordinate sales with online discounts to get a huge cart of goods for $50 and have a long build out things that don't go bad for years or at all are long gone. I do 15 minute in and out Aldi every one to two weeks.

Also I need to invest in refried beans producers. They've become a staple for me and who'd athunk they'd a become a staple for everyone else and are often empty on the shelves with pricing having gone up. I'm used to a can for about $.80. Now I'm like "Refried beans! Score! Grab 8 cans!" at a $1.20.

[Paingod]

I ordered a set of KN95 masks from Amazon. I've read that with the new, more highly infectious version of Covid, cloth masks are no longer sufficient, you need N95 or KN95.

Still effective at preventing you from spreading exhaust droplets in a 6' cone like a breath weapon, though? Just not so great if some tool is standing too close and not wearing his mask? My bigger concern isn't whether or not I get sick, but that I don't want to get someone else sick.

I'm not in a rush to replace the two dozen cloth or more masks we have at home that we use regularly and wash routinely with strictly disposables.

[malchior]

"Dr." Silver is back at it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Piroshaliso/ ... 6899699713

[LawBeefaroni]

Chicago public school teachers not going to show up for work but indoor dining and drinking is reopened!

Just as an FYI, the general consensus in my profession is that this is possibly the single worst time to have people eating/drinking indoors and unmasked in bars and restaurants.

Politicians disagree. And we all know that they make the best decisions.

[Smoove_B]

Politicians disagree. And we all know that they make the best decisions.

Oh yeah - economy at all costs. We've been receiving that message loud and clear for a long time now.

[Kraken]

I ordered a set of KN95 masks from Amazon. I've read that with the new, more highly infectious version of Covid, cloth masks are no longer sufficient, you need N95 or KN95.

Still effective at preventing you from spreading exhaust droplets in a 6' cone like a breath weapon, though? Just not so great if some tool is standing too close and not wearing his mask? My bigger concern isn't whether or not I get sick, but that I don't want to get someone else sick.

I'm not in a rush to replace the two dozen cloth or more masks we have at home that we use regularly and wash routinely with strictly disposables.

Double-masking is catching on. Putting a cloth mask over a paper mask makes it very difficult for even tiny droplets to get in or out. I have a couple of cloth masks with a paper-filter insert pocket, which should accomplish the same thing, but they don't fit as tightly as double-masking. I'm only going to do that in high-risk settings like the supermarket.

Anyway, this is definitely not the time to lower our guard, which is a huge risk as people read about vaccinations and states ease up on restrictions.

[coopasonic]

More than 10 months sitting at home. I'm willing to keep it up for as long as it takes! My #1 risk vector is probably my kids, though my wife sees COVID patients every day, she is all PPE'd up. 10 new cases at the high school (~2k kids) last week and 6 at the elementary school (~600 kids).

[stimpy]

Politicians disagree. And we all know that they make the best decisions.

Oh yeah - economy at all costs. We've been receiving that message loud and clear for a long time now.

The reality of the situation in Illinois is that reopening the economy didn't seem to be important to the various Government know it alls until Biden won.
Before that it was gloom and doom all day every day.

Now all of a sudden we have to get things open and get our economy going. Businesses are hurting!!!!!
Like......what, they weren't hurting 8, 6 4, 2 months ago?

[stimpy]

The other thing is where my Grandson goes to school, in Crook County, they want kids back in the classroom on Feb 2nd.
They think. Not sure yet. If they do come back, they will have half days for a couple of days out of the week. Maybe.
Lets gather up all the kids, not have pretesting before entering, expose them to each other for half a day, then send them home to family.
Great idea!!!!

[LawBeefaroni]

Politicians disagree. And we all know that they make the best decisions.

Oh yeah - economy at all costs. We've been receiving that message loud and clear for a long time now.

Look at that, a.few billionaires get on board the Recall Newsom wagon and....restrictions lifted. And here we thought infection rates were the metric.

[ImLawBoy]

I ordered a set of KN95 masks from Amazon. I've read that with the new, more highly infectious version of Covid, cloth masks are no longer sufficient, you need N95 or KN95.

Still effective at preventing you from spreading exhaust droplets in a 6' cone like a breath weapon, though? Just not so great if some tool is standing too close and not wearing his mask? My bigger concern isn't whether or not I get sick, but that I don't want to get someone else sick.

I'm not in a rush to replace the two dozen cloth or more masks we have at home that we use regularly and wash routinely with strictly disposables.

Double-masking is catching on. Putting a cloth mask over a paper mask makes it very difficult for even tiny droplets to get in or out. I have a couple of cloth masks with a paper-filter insert pocket, which should accomplish the same thing, but they don't fit as tightly as double-masking. I'm only going to do that in high-risk settings like the supermarket.

Anyway, this is definitely not the time to lower our guard, which is a huge risk as people read about vaccinations and states ease up on restrictions.

I did the double mask thing yesterday for my weekly shopping trip. I was worried it would be materially more uncomfortable, but it wasn't too bad. The biggest problem was my glasses falling off because of the extra loops around my ears. I'll work on ways to counter that.

FYI, I read somewhere (I think it was WebMD) that you could do the cloth mask underneath and the paper one on top. Assuming you clean your cloth masks regularly, that will allow you to reuse the paper mask for like a week. I did the paper underneath on Sunday because if it got too uncomfortable with two masks I wanted to take off the cloth mask and leave the supposedly superior paper mask.

[stimpy]

So once people start getting the shot, are they going to start feeling invincible and stop wearing masks?
If so, is there a downside to that since they are no longer considered carriers?

[wonderpug]

So once people start getting the shot, are they going to start feeling invincible and stop wearing masks?
If so, is there a downside to that since they are no longer considered carriers?

The biggest downside I see is that it will make it easier for selfish idiots to lie about getting the vaccine and get away with not wearing masks even if they aren't vaccinated.

[coopasonic]

So once people start getting the shot, are they going to start feeling invincible and stop wearing masks?
If so, is there a downside to that since they are no longer considered carriers?

Is the science in on the "no longer considered carriers" thing? At one point I in the last couple months read an article indicating the vaccine wasn't keeping it out, particularly of the nose/mouth, from where it's most likely to be shared. I think it's best to stick with masks for now.

[wonderpug]

So once people start getting the shot, are they going to start feeling invincible and stop wearing masks?
If so, is there a downside to that since they are no longer considered carriers?

Is the science in on the "no longer considered carriers" thing? At one point I in the last couple months read an article indicating the vaccine wasn't keeping it out, particularly of the nose/mouth, from where it's most likely to be shared. I think it's best to stick with masks for now.

Last I checked it was still a "we'll have to wait a while and see to know for sure".

[Isgrimnur]

The biggest problem was my glasses falling off because of the extra loops around my ears.

How small are your ears?

[Zaxxon]

So once people start getting the shot, are they going to start feeling invincible and stop wearing masks?
If so, is there a downside to that since they are no longer considered carriers?

Is the science in on the "no longer considered carriers" thing? At one point I in the last couple months read an article indicating the vaccine wasn't keeping it out, particularly of the nose/mouth, from where it's most likely to be shared. I think it's best to stick with masks for now.

Last I checked it was still a "we'll have to wait a while and see to know for sure".

Same, per the docs in my fam.

[ImLawBoy]

The biggest problem was my glasses falling off because of the extra loops around my ears.

How small are your ears?

Typical? I have a giant head, though, so I think my glasses don't go as far back as for most people.

[stimpy]

So once people start getting the shot, are they going to start feeling invincible and stop wearing masks?
If so, is there a downside to that since they are no longer considered carriers?

Is the science in on the "no longer considered carriers" thing? At one point I in the last couple months read an article indicating the vaccine wasn't keeping it out, particularly of the nose/mouth, from where it's most likely to be shared. I think it's best to stick with masks for now.

Last I checked it was still a "we'll have to wait a while and see to know for sure".

Same, per the docs in my fam.

I REALLY hope that those getting the shot are made very clear of that.

[Zaxxon]

I have a giant head

We knew that, though.

[Smoove_B]

I REALLY hope that those getting the shot are made very clear of that.

AFAIK that messaging is being promoted, but each state is still doing their own thing, so who knows? There were public health nurses in Kansas that refused to give the vaccinations to their community and there are towns and cities across American still actively fighting any type of mask mandate.

I can only hope as the vaccine supply ramps up and more people are actually vaccinated the message from the Federal government continues to reinforce mask use post-vaccination.

[LawBeefaroni]

Over the weekend I went to the grocery store. The parking lot has these one way lanes with angled spaces. They're really narrow so you pretty much have to follow the one way.

I parked and was walking to the entrance and a woman pulled out of a space, almost hitting another parked car as she tried to go against the angle. She then proceeded to go the wrong way towards me. I gave her a glare and then stepped aside. She stopped with what looked like her teenaged daughter in the passenger side asked, "Do you have a problem?"

I said, "No, but you're going the wrong way."

She yelled, "It doesn't Fucking matter!"

I said, "Yes it does," pointing to a car coming towards her.

She shouted, "No it doesn't, it's COVID, you mask-faggot" (I had my mask on because I was walking into a store that requires it).

I just walked away at that point, leaving her to deal with the other car that was now honking.

It seemed like a perfect capsule of where we are. We can do whatever we want because COVID but anyone else who does what they want is an asshole.

[Zaxxon]

I REALLY hope that those getting the shot are made very clear of that.

AFAIK that messaging is being promoted, but each state is still doing their own thing, so who knows? There were public health nurses in Kansas that refused to give the vaccinations to their community and there are towns and cities across American still actively fighting any type of mask mandate.

I can only hope as the vaccine supply ramps up and more people are actually vaccinated the message from the Federal government continues to reinforce mask use post-vaccination.

This is why I keep focusing on the doses/week rolling average. Any (and I mean any) hope of relief that depends on people changing their day-to-day behavior from that of The Olden Times Of One Year Ago™ is doomed to failure, IMO. Needles in arms are our only hope.

And of course getting to the required count of people having taken the shots is going to have its own issues. But at least there comes a point where those of us who are not chuckleheads can have our families be vaccinated and more or less have things return to normal.

I may be hanging onto a poorly-chosen hope, but it is what it is.

[Paingod]

...She yelled, "It doesn't Fucking matter!"

I said, "Yes it does," pointing to a car coming towards her.

She shouted, "No it doesn't, it's COVID, you mask-faggot" (I had my mask on because I was walking into a store that requires it).

♪ ♫ It's the end of the world as we know it ♫ ♪

[Zaxxon]

...She yelled, "It doesn't Fucking matter!"

I said, "Yes it does," pointing to a car coming towards her.

She shouted, "No it doesn't, it's COVID, you mask-faggot" (I had my mask on because I was walking into a store that requires it).

♪ ♫ It's the end of the world as we know it ♫ ♪

But... But... I don't feel fine.

[Smoove_B]

This is why I keep focusing on the doses/week rolling average. Any (and I mean any) hope of relief that depends on people changing their day-to-day behavior from that of The Olden Times Of One Year Ago™ is doomed to failure, IMO. Needles in arms are our only hope.

And of course getting to the required count of people having taken the shots is going to have its own issues. But at least there comes a point where those of us who are not chuckleheads can have our families be vaccinated and more or less have things return to normal.

I may be hanging onto a poorly-chosen hope, but it is what it is.

Did you see the report from last night regarding the supply? I am fully expecting to learn that portions of the reserve were sold to other countries, though we might never know if there's no ability to fully account for what was given to the feds.

The number of people we've vaccinated so far is good, but in terms of a realistic snapshot of where we are? I would consider 1/21 as Day Zero of the vaccination effort at this point and let's see where things go moving forward.

As someone with a child under the age of 16, I'm not hopeful of any return to "normal" at any point soon. My goal right now is to help my septuagenarian parents and relatives battle the 4+ million people clamoring for 100K weekly doses in my state. At the end of the day, there's only so many vaccines that can be produced.

[Isgrimnur]

...She yelled, "It doesn't Fucking matter!"

I said, "Yes it does," pointing to a car coming towards her.

She shouted, "No it doesn't, it's COVID, you mask-faggot" (I had my mask on because I was walking into a store that requires it).

♪ ♫ It's the end of the world as we know it ♫ ♪

But... But... I don't feel fine.

May your day be as pleasant as you are, ma'am!

[Zaxxon]

Did you see the report from last night regarding the supply? I am fully expecting to learn that portions of the reserve were sold to other countries, though we might never know if there's no ability to fully account for what was given to the feds.

I had not seen that one. Argh.

The number of people we've vaccinated so far is good, but in terms of a realistic snapshot of where we are? I would consider 1/21 as Day Zero of the vaccination effort at this point and let's see where things go moving forward.

Ditto that.

As someone with a child under the age of 16, I'm not hopeful of any return to "normal" at any point soon. My goal right now is to help my septuagenarian parents and relatives battle the 4+ million people clamoring for 100K weekly doses in my state. At the end of the day, there's only so many vaccines that can be produced.

Yeah, I don't see it anytime soon. I was hopeful for early fall, but have lately been recalibrating for late fall. 1.16M/day is not nearly enough for that. (328M US residents * .8 = 262.5M to get to Fauci's view of herd immunity, * 2 doses = 525M doses - 22.4M given so far = 502.7M doses to go / 1.16M/day so far = 433 days to go.)

Obviously this is a quick-and-dirty accounting that does not consider kids who can't be vaccinated, etc. But it's an easy calc to do for a reality check.

To hit 80% by the first day of fall, we'd need to average 2.1M doses/day from today until 9/22. 2.5M/day to hit 8/15.

[Edit - and obviously if it's taking us > a year to get everyone vaccinated, we may not (likely won't) even finish before we need to be rolling out boosters.]

[Smoove_B]

Now imagine we had this same report, but for K-12 schools:

The National Football League (NFL) and the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) began the 2020 football season in July, implementing extensive mitigation and surveillance measures in facilities and during travel and gameplay. Mitigation protocols* were evaluated and modified based on data from routine reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19); proximity tracking devices; and detailed interviews. Midseason, transmission was observed in persons who had cumulative interactions of <15 minutes’ duration, leading to a revised definition of high-risk contacts that required consideration of mask use, setting and room ventilation in addition to proximity and duration of interaction. The NFL also developed an intensive protocol that imposed stricter infection prevention precautions when a case was identified at an NFL club. The intensive protocol effectively prevented the occurrence of high-risk interactions, with no high-risk contacts identified for 71% of traced cases at clubs under the intensive protocol. The incorporation of the nature and location of the interaction, including mask use, indoor versus outdoor setting, and ventilation, in addition to proximity and duration, likely improved identification of exposed persons at higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Quarantine of these persons, along with testing and intensive protocols, can reduce spread of infection.

[stessier]

Did you see the report from last night regarding the supply? I am fully expecting to learn that portions of the reserve were sold to other countries, though we might never know if there's no ability to fully account for what was given to the feds.

I had not seen that one. Argh.

The number of people we've vaccinated so far is good, but in terms of a realistic snapshot of where we are? I would consider 1/21 as Day Zero of the vaccination effort at this point and let's see where things go moving forward.

Ditto that.

As someone with a child under the age of 16, I'm not hopeful of any return to "normal" at any point soon. My goal right now is to help my septuagenarian parents and relatives battle the 4+ million people clamoring for 100K weekly doses in my state. At the end of the day, there's only so many vaccines that can be produced.

Yeah, I don't see it anytime soon. I was hopeful for early fall, but have lately been recalibrating for late fall. 1.16M/day is not nearly enough for that. (328M US residents * .8 = 262.5M to get to Fauci's view of herd immunity, * 2 doses = 525M doses - 22.4M given so far = 502.7M doses to go / 1.16M/day so far = 433 days to go.)

Obviously this is a quick-and-dirty accounting that does not consider kids who can't be vaccinated, etc. But it's an easy calc to do for a reality check.

To hit 80% by the first day of fall, we'd need to average 2.1M doses/day from today until 9/22. 2.5M/day to hit 8/15.

[Edit - and obviously if it's taking us > a year to get everyone vaccinated, we may not (likely won't) even finish before we need to be rolling out boosters.]

These calculations are why I'm wondering why we don't invoke the Defense Production Act and give the vaccines to other companies and say "here, make this." There are other facilities besides the three that have viable vaccines that are theoretically capable of producing them given the technique.

[Smoove_B]

These calculations are why I'm wondering why we don't invoke the Defense Production Act and give the vaccines to other companies and say "here, make this." There are other facilities besides the three that have viable vaccines that are theoretically capable of producing them given the technique.

I have no doubts they're looking at everything, but at the end of the day, vaccine manufacturing isn't set up for pandemic response. The EO he signed last week was all about trying to remove the additional limiting factors that in theory could slow down production (syringe components, vial production, etc..)

While there might be other facilities that could add to the overall production I really have no idea what's involved in re-configuring them to make the mRNA vaccines.

The best analogy I could think of is if you had a machine that could make pizza dough starters and we needed to ramp up production to make 10x the amount (because aliens were invading and they like to eat pizza), maybe we could reconfigure machines that make donuts but how long that takes and how effective they can be is another story. They seem similar (both involve the creation of dough), but the ingredients and actual process will differ enough that it's not a 1:1 translation of similar equipment. Sure, every bit helps, but we're in a raging inferno right now; this should have been done last March.

[$iljanus]

Well I think we're going to see how quickly they can design and synthesize new sequences for vaccines because the Brazilian variant has now been found in Minnesota in a person who just had to travel to Brazil.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/b ... story.html

[Kraken]

Well I think we're going to see how quickly they can design and synthesize new sequences for vaccines because the Brazilian variant has now been found in Minnesota in a person who just had to travel to Brazil.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/b ... story.html

Fortunately (as I understand it) the mRNA vaccines are easily customizable. Unfortunately, if we can't stomp these suckers out before they're widespread, we might end up needing a melange of different vaccines. Viruses evolve fast.

I thought the South African variant was the most worrisome of the moment.

[Zaxxon]

As of today, the US is over 1M doses/day for the rolling 7-day period. Now let's do 2M.

1.16M doses/day.

1.25M doses/day. 401 days to 80% fully vaxxed at this rate.