Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Daehawk]

[url=https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas ... htmlBrazil plunges into crisis as a second wave and deadly new variant overwhelm hospitals [/url]

A second wave of Covid-19 is ripping through Brazil, pushing hospitals and ICUs toward collapse and claiming record numbers of daily deaths.
While a new variant of the coronavirus spreads throughout the country, many Brazilians continue to defy mask mandates mobility restrictions following the example of President Jair Bolsonaro, who recently said people need to "stop being sissies" and "whining" about the virus.

[Smoove_B]

Seattle follow up in the NYT:

https://twitter.com/DocJeffD/status/1370032131410305026

“One year later, the Seattle area has the lowest death rate of the 20 largest metropolitan regions in the country. If the rest of the United States had kept pace with Seattle, the nation could have avoided more than 300,000 coronavirus deaths.”

Lots of "'ifs". I read through the first 20 pages of this thread last night, which took me to ~1 year ago; really crazy stuff.

[LawBeefaroni]

Texas Rangers will be at 100% capacity for opening day.

Problem for opening day but the rest of the season probably won't get more than 50% full.

[Smoove_B]

Problem for opening day but the rest of the season probably won't get more than 50% full.

Well, certainly not after the super spreading event they have in the opener.

[Zaxxon]

Problem for opening day but the rest of the season probably won't get more than 50% full.

Well, certainly not after the super spreading event they have in the opener.

Exactly.

[LordMortis]

Seattle follow up in the NYT:

https://twitter.com/DocJeffD/status/1370032131410305026

“One year later, the Seattle area has the lowest death rate of the 20 largest metropolitan regions in the country. If the rest of the United States had kept pace with Seattle, the nation could have avoided more than 300,000 coronavirus deaths.”

Lots of "'ifs". I read through the first 20 pages of this thread last night, which took me to ~1 year ago; really crazy stuff.

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline. (Can't read behind the paywall, so all I can do is speculate beyond the headline) That said, living in area where we have thrown caution to the wind and paid for it multiple times with short memories political axe grinding, point taken.

[Smoove_B]

That's a fair observation. I haven't seen too much yet (a year+ later) that's really trying to correlate local climate (literal) to COVID trajectory. It could be like Hantavirus. Why is it endemic in the 4 corners and not in NY/NJ? No idea, but anecdotally it seems to be climate related. Add in population density (likely affecting rate of spread) and a whole bunch of academics are going to have a field day.

[Alefroth]

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline.

Miami, Atlanta, and Houston all did worse. Detroit was second to Seattle.

[LawBeefaroni]

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline.

Miami, Atlanta, and Houston all did worse.

Yeah, but they're Miami, Atlanta, and Houston.

[Alefroth]

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline.

Miami, Atlanta, and Houston all did worse.

Yeah, but they're Miami, Atlanta, and Houston.

Which is exactly the point.

[Octavious]

That's a fair observation. I haven't seen too much yet (a year+ later) that's really trying to correlate local climate (literal) to COVID trajectory. It could be like Hantavirus. Why is it endemic in the 4 corners and not in NY/NJ? No idea, but anecdotally it seems to be climate related. Add in population density (likely affecting rate of spread) and a whole bunch of academics are going to have a field day.

How would climate explain Brazil? Maybe it's more than they have really shitty hc? They are at 2k deaths a day.

[LordMortis]

The Internet and television inform me that climate is a factor. The virus doesn't like sunlight, while your immune system does. The virus likes it dry and it spreads and builds easier in enclosed space. The Internet tells me this so it must be true. The Internet does not tell me that climate over rides individual and collective decision making. It tells me that you ignore isolation and hygiene and gather indoors at your own peril irrespective of climate and that maybe we can inject chlorine or shine light into people to kill the virus. Maybe scientists can look in to that.

[malchior]

The climate thing runs into a bit of a wall in Florida which has slightly above the average rates of covid infections and deaths than the overall US. Another contracase - California.

[Alefroth]

And Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Michigan.

[Smoove_B]

We might never figure out the climate element. As I said with Hantavirus, we still have no idea and it's been ~27 years.

In related news, if you want to read a really good "state of the union" opinion piece, I share this from Dr. Angela Rasmussen; she's a trusted expert and has been a voice of reason over the last 12+ months.

[hitbyambulance]

Seattle follow up in the NYT:

https://twitter.com/DocJeffD/status/1370032131410305026

“One year later, the Seattle area has the lowest death rate of the 20 largest metropolitan regions in the country. If the rest of the United States had kept pace with Seattle, the nation could have avoided more than 300,000 coronavirus deaths.”

Lots of "'ifs". I read through the first 20 pages of this thread last night, which took me to ~1 year ago; really crazy stuff.

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline. (Can't read behind the paywall, so all I can do is speculate beyond the headline) That said, living in area where we have thrown caution to the wind and paid for it multiple times with short memories political axe grinding, point taken.

i can say (as a downtown Seattle dweller) the compliance level of wearing facial coverings here is probably up there around, say, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc - people are extremely conscientious of this. (and having a significant Asian and Asian-American population helps)

[LawBeefaroni]

That's a fair observation. I haven't seen too much yet (a year+ later) that's really trying to correlate local climate (literal) to COVID trajectory. It could be like Hantavirus. Why is it endemic in the 4 corners and not in NY/NJ? No idea, but anecdotally it seems to be climate related. Add in population density (likely affecting rate of spread) and a whole bunch of academics are going to have a field day.

How would climate explain Brazil? Maybe it's more than they have really shitty hc? They are at 2k deaths a day.

Aren't we at 1,500? With similar population sizes, this could just be a time shift. Even just month headstart on vaccination could explain it. Need more data.

[noxiousdog]

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline.

Miami, Atlanta, and Houston all did worse. Detroit was second to Seattle.

Detroit was terrible. Houston was third behind San Diego.

My first two thoughts are I'd like to see population density and race. Population density is clearly a factor with New York City and Boston at the top.

[Z-Corn]

My coworker, who I don't see all that often but IS the person I work closest with, just told me he is not getting vaccinated for "at least a year."

He has type O negative blood and takes vitamin D 3 or 4 times a week. That is all the protection he needs. He's 58 years old and his wife just survived leukemia.

[Alefroth]

That headline is a big unfair, isn't it? If the rest of the country had the warm humidity of Seattle, things would be a bit different as well, wouldn't it but that's not implied in the headline.

Miami, Atlanta, and Houston all did worse. Detroit was second to Seattle.

Detroit was terrible. Houston was third behind San Diego.

My first two thoughts are I'd like to see population density and race. Population density is clearly a factor with New York City and Boston at the top.

Right you are about Detroit. I looked at the wrong column.

[Smoove_B]

Reasonable guidance for parents that are vaccinated, but their kids are not:

But for now, it’s still safest to arrange playdates for the kids outside, or inside wearing masks, Kimberlin suggests. And if your child has a health condition that puts them at higher risk of severe disease, you may want to continue taking precautions until he or she can get vaccinated.

What about vacations and public places?

Dr. Guliz Erdem, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Nationwide Children’s Hospital, says you should be more cautious outside your home than in it. In a private home, you have a pretty good handle on how many people will be there and who has been vaccinated. That’s not true in, say, a restaurant or movie theater. “The main point is to avoid crowds and crowded settings—places that you cannot control what will happen,” she says.

What about vacations and travel?

As for vacations, the CDC does not yet recommend recreational travel, even for those who are fully vaccinated. But if your family decides to take a trip, try to pick a destination where the virus isn’t spreading widely—and, ideally, one within driving distance. Airplanes haven’t proven to be common places for the virus to spread, but the family car is even lower risk, Malley says.

And plan your activities with COVID-19 in mind, Malley says. If you’ve got an unvaccinated child, spending time at the beach is likely a safer choice than a day full of indoor activities.

[Skinypupy]

Reasonable guidance for parents that are vaccinated, but their kids are not:

But for now, it’s still safest to arrange playdates for the kids outside, or inside wearing masks, Kimberlin suggests. And if your child has a health condition that puts them at higher risk of severe disease, you may want to continue taking precautions until he or she can get vaccinated.

What about vacations and public places?

Dr. Guliz Erdem, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Nationwide Children’s Hospital, says you should be more cautious outside your home than in it. In a private home, you have a pretty good handle on how many people will be there and who has been vaccinated. That’s not true in, say, a restaurant or movie theater. “The main point is to avoid crowds and crowded settings—places that you cannot control what will happen,” she says.

What about vacations and travel?

As for vacations, the CDC does not yet recommend recreational travel, even for those who are fully vaccinated. But if your family decides to take a trip, try to pick a destination where the virus isn’t spreading widely—and, ideally, one within driving distance. Airplanes haven’t proven to be common places for the virus to spread, but the family car is even lower risk, Malley says.

And plan your activities with COVID-19 in mind, Malley says. If you’ve got an unvaccinated child, spending time at the beach is likely a safer choice than a day full of indoor activities.

My brother (both he and his wife are vaccinated) decided to fly to Utah with their whole family for spring break this week. My wife and I (neither of us are vaccinated) have become the huge killjoys for insisting that everyone wear masks and putting the kibosh on activities like indoor trampoline parks and bowling.

Crazy thing is, my brother is a doctor and his wife is a nurse, and they've been fully on board with COVID precautions for the past year. They apparently just decided that because they are now vaccinated, all bets are off.

Super-frustrating that I'm now the one who ends up being the badguy for insisting that we still be careful.

[Smoove_B]

Super-frustrating that I'm now the one who ends up being the badguy for insisting that we still be careful.

I've been wearing the mantle of Captain No-Fun since March of 2020; I feel your pain. They might be fully comfortable with the data saying that kids will be fine after an infection - that's they are low risk for death. While I agree with that, I'm not entirely convinced there won't be chronic health issue risk for anyone that's been infected (kids included) Everyone has been really focused on binary outcomes (i.e. you either die from COVID-19 or you recover), but there's significant evidence suggesting recovery isn't that simple.

[stessier]

One need look no further than EBG for our own anecdote showing that.

[Skinypupy]

Super-frustrating that I'm now the one who ends up being the badguy for insisting that we still be careful.

I've been wearing the mantle of Captain No-Fun since March of 2020; I feel your pain. They might be fully comfortable with the data saying that kids will be fine after an infection - that's they are low risk for death. While I agree with that, I'm not entirely convinced there won't be chronic health issue risk for anyone that's been infected (kids included) Everyone has been really focused on binary outcomes (i.e. you either die from COVID-19 or you recover), but there's significant evidence suggesting recovery isn't that simple.

I finally told them last night that after quarantining for a year+, there's no way I was just going to throw caution to the wind with (hopefully) under a month until I can get my shot.

The number of COVID "long haulers" I've talked to lately has seemed to be steadily increasing, and the long-term effects sound horrific. No way I'm taking that risk, even if I have to be the bad guy for a week.

[Blackhawk]

I'm looking forward to getting vaccinated. But I look forward to stressing less, not to throwing caution to the wind. Will I be less cautious? Maybe a little. I may browse at an unnecessary shop on my way home from a necessary errand. But I'll still wear my mask, and I'll still wash my hands.

[YellowKing]

A couple we're friends with just announced they have Covid and are under lockdown for 2 weeks. While not anti-maskers, they refuse to wear them unless absolutely forced to and post pictures weekly of themselves out and about in bars, over at friends' houses, etc. We cut off in-person ties with them early in the pandemic because their recklessness scared me.

The only thing I'm surprised about is that they didn't get it sooner.

[RMC]

I'm looking forward to getting vaccinated. But I look forward to stressing less, not to throwing caution to the wind. Will I be less cautious? Maybe a little. I may browse at an unnecessary shop on my way home from a necessary errand. But I'll still wear my mask, and I'll still wash my hands.

Ohio is opening up vaccinations to 16+ year olds in a few weeks. They have also opened a vaccination center that is going to be doing 6,000 shots a day. Not sure where the supply is coming from. But looks like we are able to get it out to everyone.

I have had the vaccine for over a month, and I still wear a mask, and wash my hands more, and am still careful. But I have been out and working through this, so I have not changed anything I have been doing.

[Smoove_B]

Broad overview on the current trend:

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1 ... 3816178689

Over past week, number of infections in U.S. has stopped declining

At about 50K infections every day

About where we were at height of summer surge

Why the stall?

Suspect B.1.1.7 is now starting to really have an effect

And states are opening up

This is a problem

Thread

In short, we need to keep vaccinating aggressively and not open everything up, ignoring the fact that we're still in a pandemic. I fear there's going to be another bump related to Spring Break and Easter. To be this close to having widespread vaccinations available to people and to just shrug your shoulders as a community and ignore what's been working is...really frustrating.

[stimpy]

Want to post an update to thank Smoove B for his assistance in getting me info to help get my Mom not only an appointment for the vaccine, but actually being able to get the vaccine.

I called the number that Smoove supplied for the Senior Advocacy office for the city my Mom lives in. Her city does not offer the shot. To my shock and surprise, not only did a human answer, they actually told me to register in the next town over using her correct info. Never would have crossed my mind to do that. So even though that town has residency restrictions, I was able to go thru the registration process with all of the info showing she did not live in their city, but it took it anyway.

We showed up with the email verification code in hand and wondering what we would do if they asked for proof of residency. Our hope was that they wouldn't turn her away.
They didn't ask for any ID, just the verification code, and we breezed right thru in 20 minutes. We walked out with an appointment for the second shot in a couple of weeks.

My Mom was SO relieved and happy with how it all went down and I in turn am grateful that Smoove was kind enough to do some research and get me connected to someone who could actually help us.
She has had no side effects from this shot and I'm hoping for the same after the second shot. She is one tough woman.

[Zaxxon]

Go, team cephalopod!

[coopasonic]

Super-frustrating that I'm now the one who ends up being the badguy for insisting that we still be careful.

My wife's parents live 1.5 miles from us. They have been in our "bubble" since around fall. We have been at their house around once a month, masked up when we aren't actively eating/drinking. Out on the patio when reasonable. My wife's step-sister has apparently gotten sick of wearing a mask (she's a dog groomer). She refused to wear a mask at the in-laws house but also refused to stay home, so instead we are no longer going over to the (now vaccinated) in-laws.

I don't see ourselves as being the bad guys and neither should you. Party pooper? Maybe, but justifiable. Alive and healthy party pooper beats fun loving corpse or chronically ill party-goer every time.

[malchior]

If you haven't seen it yet - Fauci and Rand had another knock down battle at a Senate hearing. It is hard to decide who the biggest shit stain in the Senate is but Rand Paul is way up there.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1 ... 8597428227

https://twitter.com/abbydphillip/status ... 6096815104

[Lorini]

Reasonable guidance for parents that are vaccinated, but their kids are not:

But for now, it’s still safest to arrange playdates for the kids outside, or inside wearing masks, Kimberlin suggests. And if your child has a health condition that puts them at higher risk of severe disease, you may want to continue taking precautions until he or she can get vaccinated.

What about vacations and public places?

Dr. Guliz Erdem, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Nationwide Children’s Hospital, says you should be more cautious outside your home than in it. In a private home, you have a pretty good handle on how many people will be there and who has been vaccinated. That’s not true in, say, a restaurant or movie theater. “The main point is to avoid crowds and crowded settings—places that you cannot control what will happen,” she says.

What about vacations and travel?

As for vacations, the CDC does not yet recommend recreational travel, even for those who are fully vaccinated. But if your family decides to take a trip, try to pick a destination where the virus isn’t spreading widely—and, ideally, one within driving distance. Airplanes haven’t proven to be common places for the virus to spread, but the family car is even lower risk, Malley says.

And plan your activities with COVID-19 in mind, Malley says. If you’ve got an unvaccinated child, spending time at the beach is likely a safer choice than a day full of indoor activities.

We are fully vaccinated and are taking a trip to Mammoth Lakes in July, a 6 hour drive away. We'll be staying in a condo by ourselves. We go mostly to photograph the lovely area there and don't encounter crowds, so I think we'll be all right.

In May, I'm going to a hotel near the beach that charges a day fee for using the pool and spa area. That's again within a two hour drive, so should be OK and the pool area is socially distanced as well.

Looking forward to both!

[Kraken]

The number of COVID "long haulers" I've talked to lately has seemed to be steadily increasing, and the long-term effects sound horrific. No way I'm taking that risk, even if I have to be the bad guy for a week.

I recently read somewhere (Science News? the Globe?) that there is some evidence that the vaccine cures Long Covid. The implication is that sufferers have a reservoir of the virus hiding somewhere in their bodies, and vaccination finally knocks it out. It's mixed news if it pans out -- the thought that the coronavirus has a stealth mode is disquieting.

[YellowKing]

Re: the Rand Paul video, nothing tells me you don't know what the hell you're talking about faster than loudly interrupting me. I don't understand how Fauci restrains himself when dealing with these dumbasses.

[malchior]

Re: the Rand Paul video, nothing tells me you don't know what the hell you're talking about faster than loudly interrupting me. I don't understand how Fauci restrains himself when dealing with these dumbasses.

He just envisions himself as Rand Paul's neighbor...

[Smoove_B]

I am genuinely impressed that not only is Rand Paul an embarrassment to public service, but he's just as much of an embarrassment to the medical/public health profession as well. One is common, but both? That's really something special.

[Smoove_B]

Since this is making the rounds in my circles, I figured it would be good to share here. First, a child is not like your vaccinated grandma. Second, stop giving economists a megaphone to talk about COVID-19. This is a horrible, horrible message:

Children are not at high risk for COVID-19. We’ve known since early in the pandemic that they are much less likely to fall ill, especially seriously ill. Although scientists don’t quite understand why, kids seem to be naturally protected. As a result, you can think of your son or daughter as an already vaccinated grandparent.

But this right here - this is pandering to the anti-vax crowd:

The central goal of vaccination is preventing serious illness and death. From this standpoint, being a child is a really great vaccine. Your unvaccinated first grader appears to have about as much protection from serious illness as a vaccinated grandmother.

Being a child is not a really great vaccine, no. This is why we have an entire element of the CDC devoted to vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. I can understand the confusion because kids in the United States aren't suffering from them en masse anymore, but to simply declare that a child is magically protected from illnesses? No. Bad economist!

[Isgrimnur]

you can think of your son or daughter as an already vaccinated grandparent.

A whiny freeloader that has emotional issues and unreasonable demands?