Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[LordMortis]

The dam broke.

I see people the day after their first shot hosting house parties. 'Cause they think COVID is over for them.

I had to go for an infusion on Saturday. The roads were packed (as they were on the commute this morning) and all of the parking lots with restaurants we full. Bars had cars in the lot in the afternoon. We're already on the post St Patty's day uptick and the UofM is still in the tournament. It's going to get worse. (Curretly 7 day average of 4500, about at our post Hallloween rate of increase before the Thanksgiving craziness. Deaths still remain at "only" 20 a day.

...Still no word on my vaccination unless I want to book through a RiteAid in Toledo/Sylvania, OH. Thinking about it. Seriously thinking about it.

[hitbyambulance]

i'm wondering what the solid waste/landfill impact is going to be from all the disposable PPE

With all the hyperconsumption happening it probably wouldn't even register a blip.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ort-litter

Trapped in gloves, tangled in masks: Covid PPE killing animals, report finds

Mask and gloves protect people but harm animals from penguins to dogs when discarded, researchers say

[LawBeefaroni]

That's from littering or improper disposal.

The number of masks littering the sidewalks around here is disheartening.

[Holman]

Think of everything we're missing with Trump off Twitter.

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/137 ... 14976?s=20

(I'm currently in essay-grading mode and this writing makes my skin crawl.)

[Daehawk]

Someone who thinks they are always right is always wrong.

[malchior]

Aaron Rupar continues to be one of my favorites. This is the right take. Unless you work for Fox News there is no good reason to publishing anything like this and that isn't an excuse for Fox. I just expect them to be terrible.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1376668355294339079

[Smoove_B]

Hey, NJ how's it going?

As New Jersey races to vaccinate its adult population faster than COVID-19 variants spread, state statisticians predict that even in their best-case scenario, this summer New Jersey will see thousands more new cases each day compared to last summer, according to Department of Health models Gov. Phil Murphy plans to present at his coronavirus briefing Wednesday.

In the more dire predictions, New Jersey could see a record high of infections — depending on how effectively vaccines work against variant strains, whether New Jerseyans follow public health measures and how quickly they get vaccinated, the models obtained by NorthJersey.com predict.

The unfortunate worst-case details:

In the worst case scenario, the number of people who test positive for COVID-19 each day peaks in mid-May and starts a steady but slow decline. If New Jerseyans don't follow public health guidelines as strictly during Memorial Day, if variants spread and vaccines only protect against 65% of variant cases, and 70% of adults are vaccinated by June 15, the peak could produce the highest number of daily cases New Jersey has ever reported. In this high-case scenario, New Jersey predicts on May 18 there could be 8,162 cases, 3,644 hospitalizations and 415 patients on ventilators.

Potentially the highest number of cases ever reported while we're likely at peak vaccination efforts. The mind boggles.

A more moderate prediction:

In a moderate case future, the Garden State could see a lower peak of cases a month earlier, in mid-April. In that scenario, if 70% of adults are vaccinated by June 1 and vaccines have a 95% efficacy against all variants, New Jersey modelers predict April 18 will be the peak of the new wave, with a high of 5,445 cases, 2,669 people in the hospital and 319 patients on ventilators.

For reference, NY state announced yesterday that anyone over the age of 30 is now eligible for vaccination. NJ? Not even close. Other than promising all adults 18 years and older will be offered the vaccine by 5/1, NJ continues the slow-roll. The longer it takes to open this up to everyone, the greater the chances of it snowballing into a nightmare. So very frustrating.

[Blackhawk]

That's not encouraging, given that the worst-case scenarios from a year ago ended up being way too optimistic.

[Smoove_B]

I am pretty confident it's going to be bad - for all the reasons suspected back in January. People are vaccinated and thinking their job is over. No one is going to submit to more restrictions, particularly anything close to what was enacted in NJ a year ago. Instead, our governor is decreasing restrictions in a way (IMHO) that does not match our vaccination rollout and/or the evidence that is suggesting variants are spreading.

I am pretty sure we're in the St. Patrick's Day bump right now, and in another 7-21 days we're going to see the Spring Break and Easter bump (such a wide window to include college students, private and public schools). I've seen people on local social media asking about going on cruises for Spring Break. I've seen them posting about renting and sharing multiple houses with extended family members in the Poconos. I still get takeout 2x a week and I'm seeing more and more people in the restaurants when I go to pick up my order - all mask less (as permitted) and sitting indoors. It's insanity.

My second dose is tomorrow. My wife is not in any NJ category and my daughter is 15 - unable to be vaccinated. Realistically then, nothing changes for me in the short term other than a *slightly* lower stress level because I'm protected.

[gbasden]

My second dose is tomorrow. My wife is not in any NJ category and my daughter is 15 - unable to be vaccinated. Realistically then, nothing changes for me in the short term other than a *slightly* lower stress level because I'm protected.

Assuming your entire family were vaccinated, what would you personally be comfortable with? I'm trying to get a handle on what might be safe for myself and others.

[Smoove_B]

Assuming your entire family were vaccinated, what would you personally be comfortable with? I'm trying to get a handle on what might be safe for myself and others.

If my wife was vaccinated, I'd feel comfortable hanging out with my parents indoors, unmasked - even with my 15 year old. She's remote learning, so her chances of having exposure are next to nil. It's only when she goes to the ortho and to get a haircut really and so indoor socializing with my parents would be viable.

I'd feel more comfortable going back into stores and businesses to get whatever I need - I'm still doing curbside pickup for groceries; haven't been inside a supermarket in 13 months now. Not extended shopping trips, but not avoiding them entirely.

I'd feel more comfortable being outdoors - parks, beaches, etc... where random strangers are circulating. Even though we'd be masked regardless, having that extra protection would be nice.

If we were all vaccinated I think having other vaccinated people over would be acceptable - like board gaming nights. Haven't done that in 14 months. Or even me going to a board gaming night elsewhere with vaccinated people, knowing that even if I did get it and on the small chance I transmitted it home, everyone would be protected already. Where I get a little nervous is the low chance of me transmitting it to another vaccinated person and that person then bringing it home to a unvaccinated family member and giving it to them (like a parent giving it to a kid). The risk for that seems pretty low, but it's not zero. I'd probably hang myself if I unknowingly gave COVID to someone that was vaccinated and that person then gave it to their kid. Hopefully the various studies will confirm the chances of this happening are effectively zero.

I can't imagine eating indoors (like at a restaurant) even after we're all vaccinated. I think I'd need to hear that circulating virus levels are low first.

I don't think we'd be traveling (CDC still advises against it) or hanging out in large (>10) groups of people indoors, unmasked - particularly when it's mixed families or strangers. It's a good question. I can't say I've thought too much about it honestly because of how things are right now and how they'll be even after my wife is vaccinated. I can also say I'm probably not normal in risk calculations so I wouldn't encourage others to follow my practices completely.

Though I will say I have a 100% effectiveness record as of today.

[LordMortis]

in another 7-21 days we're going to see the Spring Break and Easter bump (such a wide window to include college students, private and public schools).

So much this. I'll feel some relief come three weeks after April 25th.

I still get takeout 2x a week and I'm seeing more and more people in the restaurants when I go to pick up my order - all mask less (as permitted) and sitting indoors. It's insanity.

Among all the other I've noticed on my rare trips to do anything as quickly and as distantly as possible, on Saturday, I had to get my infusion. Going home around 11:00, every restaurant was as packed as they could be with the 10 ft/every other table restriction. The roads were packed like a commuter day for work and everyone was just generally out and about. Add this to the St Patty's bump and the my last Costco trip where several people were just flagrantly wearing masks around their necks. At work, the people allowed in the office are allowed be sans mask when no one is in their work area. People are just... forgetting to mask up when someone nears and then enters their safety zone.

We're the worst state in the nation with regard to infection rate right now. I can't imagine why. And it's not just infections up up up, it's hospitalizations and it's hospitalizations of younger and younger people on average. I read the average age of hospitalized case is now people of middle age, whatever defines that. (40-55, I'm guessing that's the middle age to me)

[YellowKing]

With both my wife and I being fully vaccinated, we've expanded our risk comfort zone out a bit. We ate inside a restaurant for only the third time since March 2019 this past weekend, and did a day trip to Myrtle Beach for some shopping.

As far as relatives go, all my family has been fully vaccinated and we are still not yet to the point of hanging out with friends, so we don't really have any extended interaction with non-vaxxed people except for the kids. They've been full-time at school for months now, so their exposure level has always been elevated.

[stessier]

With both my wife and I being fully vaccinated, we've expanded our risk comfort zone out a bit. We ate inside a restaurant for only the third time since March 2019 this past weekend,

Were you quarantining before it was cool? I know it's felt like two years, but it's really only been one.

[Zaxxon]

With both my wife and I being fully vaccinated, we've expanded our risk comfort zone out a bit. We ate inside a restaurant for only the third time since March 2019 this past weekend,

Were you quarantining before it was cool? I know it's felt like two years, but it's really only been one.

Early bird gets the worm.

[Kraken]

With our vaccination schedule Wife and I should be fully immune six weeks from now. By that time, I hope community spread will be going back down, or at least plateaued again. I won't go back to any indoor activities until the background infection rate is at a low simmer. I do look forward to dining outdoors again, though. Getting tired of our takeout options and especially tired of cooking.

[LordMortis]

I don't mind cooking. I'm tired of all of my F2F interactions being such as forced by work or the need for food with a brief exception of seeing my parents every other month or so. I'm not a big social F2F driven person but 13 months and counting is too much for me. It'll be 15 when I finally get to tear down the wall (or at least breach it) assuming all goes according to plan. And I'll sit at across a table, in doors, with ventilation to the outdoors, but no mask and handling the same cards and pieces as another human who has also vaccinated enough in the past that they are comfortable being in a room with me.

I also would like to have service done my car such that I can sit around somewhere and wait for it be completed.

[Zaxxon]

I also would like to have service done my car such that I can sit around somewhere and wait for it be completed.

I won't say it. Neither will coop.

[LordMortis]

Service is not ICE related. It's actually tire related. I have rim leak that is getting out of control. I know your car has foam tires as well, but me not having them is not mutually exclusive from owning an ICE powered car.

[coopasonic]

I also would like to have service done my car such that I can sit around somewhere and wait for it be completed.

I won't say it. Neither will coop.

I was seriously going to mention something here but decided better. It's not like they were at my house just last week doing warranty service or anything.

[coopasonic]

Service is not ICE related. It's actually tire related. I have rim leak that is getting out of control. I know your car has foam tires as well, but me not having them is not mutually exclusive from owning an ICE powered car.

The sound deadening foam does nothing related to leakage.

[LordMortis]

I also would like to have service done my car such that I can sit around somewhere and wait for it be completed.

I won't say it. Neither will coop.

I was seriously going to mention something here but decided better. It's not like they were at my house just last week doing warranty service or anything.

Tesla do at home warranty service on 13+ year old vehicles?

Service is not ICE related. It's actually tire related. I have rim leak that is getting out of control. I know your car has foam tires as well, but me not having them is not mutually exclusive from owning an ICE powered car.

The sound deadening foam does nothing related to leakage.

I misunderstood Tesla tires then. I thought they did not take compressed air. I guess that's just my ignorant Plebe speaking.

[Zaxxon]

We's way off topic, but yes, they'll do warranty or non-warranty, as well as tire, service at your house. And the tires are just standard tires (many cars have the sound-deadening foam in them these days).

Apologies for starting this.

[TheMix]

We's way off topic, but yes, they'll do warranty or non-warranty, as well as tire, service at your house. And the tires are just standard tires (many cars have the sound-deadening foam in them these days).

Apologies for starting this.

Are you though? Are you really?

[Zaxxon]

We's way off topic, but yes, they'll do warranty or non-warranty, as well as tire, service at your house. And the tires are just standard tires (many cars have the sound-deadening foam in them these days).

Apologies for starting this.

Are you though? Are you really?

[Smoove_B]

I will come back in and post more depressing news if y'all don't quit it.

[raydude]

Woohoo! I finally got an email from Alexandria saying I’m eligible for vaccination. Responded to the email and I now have an appt for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine this Friday at 11:20am.

But it’s after I pull an overnight shift helping to calibrate an instrument at the Lab from 12am to 8am. Blech.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Zaxxon]

I will come back in and post more depressing news if y'all don't quit it.

If we do quit, do we get good news?

[malchior]

J&J contract manufacturer makes major manufacturing error - delaying US production of vaccine. Good lord.

Workers at a Baltimore plant manufacturing two coronavirus vaccines accidentally conflated the vaccines’ ingredients several weeks ago, ruining about 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine and forcing regulators to delay authorization of the plant’s production lines.

The plant is run by Emergent BioSolutions, a manufacturing partner to both Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca. Federal officials attributed the mistake to human error.

The mixup has halted future shipments of Johnson & Johnson doses in the United States while the Food and Drug Administration investigates. Johnson & Johnson has moved to strengthen its control over Emergent BioSolutions’ work to avoid further quality lapses.

The mistake is a major embarrassment for Johnson & Johnson, whose one-dose vaccine has been credited with speeding up the national immunization program.

It does not affect Johnson & Johnson doses that are currently being delivered and used nationwide. All those doses were produced in the Netherlands, where operations have been fully approved by federal regulators.

Those shipments are now in question while the quality control issues are sorted out, according to people familiar with the matter.

Federal officials still expect to have enough doses to meet President Biden’s commitment to provide enough vaccine by the end of May to immunize every adult. The two other federally authorized manufacturers, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, are continuing to deliver as expected.

[malchior]

2nd post with even more context. J&J's sub-contractor? 5 days ago an article was published about their ties to to Trump administration officials They apparently have some cozy relationship and awarded these clowns $628M during Operation Warp Speed to 'scale up'.

A pharmaceutical contractor under scrutiny for its ties to former government officials could be one of the bottlenecks holding up the production of millions of Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines.

Emergent BioSolutions, the U.S. company making “drug substance,” the active ingredient in the vaccines, is still awaiting regulatory authorization, according to a company official familiar with the process. Emergent-made doses were not included in the paperwork Johnson & Johnson submitted to the Food and Drug Administration. That means that the material Emergent makes would not be available to be used for vaccines that can be administered in the United States now.

Johnson & Johnson is due to deliver 20 million doses by the end of March, but just 4.7 million had been delivered as of March 25, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Emergent spokesman Matt Hartwig said the company is capable of producing drug substance to support more than 1 billion doses annually.

"We are on track and meeting all of our commitments to Johnson & Johnson and Astra Zeneca," said Hartwig.

The FDA declined to respond to questions, directing questions to Johnson & Johnson.

“We expect to ship 20 million doses by the end of March,” Johnson & Johnson spokesperson Jake Sargent said in an email, declining to share details on when supply will begin to ramp up and to what degree the delay is related to Emergent.

The apparent challenges come amid increased scrutiny of the firm’s Washington connections, including to top Trump pandemic response official Robert Kadlec, and its outsize influence on the Strategic National Stockpile.

The White House canceled a trip to the company’s Baltimore plant earlier this month.

A Johnson & Johnson executive told Congress in February the company could deliver 20 million U.S. doses by the end of the month, but said that was “assuming necessary regulatory approvals relating to our manufacturing processes.”

[Smoove_B]

So, what are the demographics on new hospitalizations in NJ? Apparently we're a mirror for the nation:

A 31% increase among hospitalizations in individuals between the ages of 20 and 29.
A 9% increase among people between 30 and 39.
A 48% increase among people between 40 to 49.
A 29% increase among people 50 to 59.
A 27% increase among people 60 to 69.
A 7% increase among people 70 to 79.
A 1% increase among people over 80.

Younger people in New Jersey are increasingly being hospitalized at higher rates for the coronavirus as the number of new daily cases continues to climb.

[Octavious]

According to my co-worker I'm being silly being worried about catching it because I'm not old or fat. He also just came back from Disney last week and keeps on telling me my kid needs to go into school in person. I do my best to not kick him in the nuts.

[Smoove_B]

You coworker is a twat because he doesn't understand that vaccines don't just protect you, they protect others. Like crazy people that would travel into FL to vacation in Disney right now.

Also, he was in Disney last week? Did he get a COVID test upon return to NJ? If he opted not to test or it wouldn't have been done before returning to work, he should be staying home for 10 days after his vacation.

Instead he's in your office?

[Octavious]

They had him take a rapid test when he got home. Before he came in. Oh fun story he has SEVERE immunity issues and is super high risk. You look at him wrong and he gets sick. So ya...

[Holman]

If borne out, this would be EXCELLENT news: CDC Data Suggests Vaccinated Don’t Carry, Can’t Spread Virus

“Vaccinated people do not carry the virus — they don’t get sick,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Tuesday. That’s “not just in the clinical trials, but it’s also in real-world data.”

Walensky was referring to a new CDC study that suggests those fully inoculated with the vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer don’t transmit the virus. Researchers looked at how the shots protected nearly 4,000 health-care workers, first responders, and other essential workers toiling in eight U.S. locations against the virus and more-contagious variants. Following a single dose of either vaccine, the participants’ risk of infection was reduced by 80 percent, and that figure jumped to 90 percent after the second dose. Without infection, people are unable to spread the virus. The results are similar to what scientists saw in clinical trials for the vaccines, which found that two doses of either two-dose vaccine had an efficacy rate of around 95 percent.

If this is true, does it put to rest fears that even the vaccinated can be spreaders?

Are there enough reasons to be optimistic that this is so?

[malchior]

We probably are going to hear a chorus of 'too soon to tell' on the transmission question but it certainly feels that it is breaking the right way.

It also seems with the blurb today that Pfizer thinks their vaccine is good for 6 months (now that they have more long-term data) that there was some some good news all around today.

[Smoove_B]

Public health / scicom / virology communities are in heated debate now over the statement. "Data suggests" isn't a guarantee - it's a strong indicator. The general arguement is whether or not she should have said "effectively unable to carry the virus" or "highly unlikely to carry the virus". It's the type of debate that's been raging since last march over airborne vs droplet spread. There's some nuance and when you add in the science elements there's potential for the media to confuse the issue and then confuse the public.

Kinda how people still believe (in April of 2021) that kids don't get COVID.

[Blackhawk]

How would 'do not carry' even work? I always thought that vaccination immunity caused your body to efficiently fight a virus before it had time to do meaningful damage. The median incubation period is 4-5 days and as little as 2, and I recall reading that you are contagious 48 hours before showing symptoms. Does the vaccine provided immunity actually wipe out the virus in a day or two? Or does it slow the spread enough in the process that you never reach a contagious state before it clears it?

[Smoove_B]

There's different ways for a vaccine to work - they're not all the same. There was a really good overview published back in January covering what the likely outcome was for a COVID vaccine. Namely, it would allow for infection to occur and for the virus to circulate at low levels i that person's body - because it has advanced protection (antibody memory) and can mount a quick response. Here their symptoms might be mild or they might be completely asymptomatic.

In addition, because the virus cannot get a full foothold, it's highly unlikely that the person is able to transmit the virus to others (in theory). That's what we're verifying now. However, when those new variants started popping up, that's why there was concern - that the variants had a lower infectious dose (few viral particles needed to transmit illness) so even if the vaccine were to drive down replication in a new host (by boosting immunity) even if you're shedding a fraction of the variant, you might still then be able to transmit the disease (even if you're not feeling any impacts).

[Max Peck]

The latest statement from Ottawa Public Health paints a grim picture.

Ottawa Public Health continues to report daily new numbers in the triple digits when it comes to people testing positive for COVID-19. 117 today. 112 yesterday. 184 Monday. The rate has doubled in the last two weeks since we moved to Red-Control Zone of the provincial framework. That move has not turned the curve.

The rate of COVID per 100,000 people is 91.6. The Rt number is 1.2 and our per cent positivity is 5.9%. These are all well above the threshold for Red-Control and increasing. And as our hospital partners will tell you today, hospitalizations are once again on the rise as are the number of people in intensive care units.

Our healthcare system is stretched. Cases are rising, hospitalizations are increasing, the testing centres are maxed out, and our case management team is no longer able to contact trace as we have through previous surges. We are currently seeing an average of four high-risk contacts per individual who tests positive. And with 117 new positive results today, that means almost five hundred high-risk contacts today alone. OPH will continue to follow up with individuals who test positive for COVID-19, but we will be asking them to be responsible for notifying their close contacts.

The places COVID spreads the most continue to be private gatherings such as parties, barbecues and after-work get-togethers and team sports, even outdoors, where public health measures like physical distancing and mask wearing are not followed.

The variants of concern are taking over in the wastewater, having grown from 10 per cent on March 20 to 50 per cent of all the COVID detected on March 25. This demonstrates their higher rate of transmission compared to non-variant of concern COVID-19 types.

While we are seeing transmission among all age groups, the majority of transmission is still occurring in the 20 to 39 age group. This age group will not be protected by vaccine for months. Younger people are showing up in the hospital. And earlier this week, the community lost someone in their 40s to COVID-19.

This needs to be very clear: COVID-19 affects all of us and this virus does not discriminate. COVID-19 is everywhere.

While OPH and partners are focused on working in areas with higher rates of COVID-19 and reaching younger people, the virus is present in all types of settings across the city.

At times we feel safer with close friends or family. We wrongfully equate not wearing a mask with trusting one another. Some people may still be observing a "bubble" with others, but with variants of concern, asymptomatic transmission, and numbers as high as they are - now is not a time to feel safe and let down our guard around others outside of our immediate household.

We have always said that our individual actions matter. We have encouraged residents to be vigilant, check your blind spots and adjust your behaviours. And for so long, you have done that. So, to call our current situation disheartening, after all the work residents have put in, would be a gross understatement. We are seeing what we feared; the vaccine hasn’t arrived in time to outpace the growth of COVID in the community. We are at a point we have never seen before during this pandemic.

If we do not get the levels of COVID-19 back under control, we will see stronger lockdowns like we’ve seen in other countries around the world, and for longer. We will see more businesses suffer. We will see our health care system once again become overwhelmed. We will see people in hospital hallways on stretchers. Health care workers won’t be able to come into work because their children are waiting for a COVID test result. We are already tapping into an exhausted health care sector and we only have so many trained staff available to test, contact trace, vaccinate, and treat. We need them for more than just COVID. And they are all tired. We are all tired.