Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

This is what somehow passes as discourse. While I'm glad Fauci isn't banned from news programs anymore...why is he engaging with these idiots?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1378090180154900490

[Smoove_B]

why is he engaging with these idiots?

There's been specific recognition that the Fox News demographic is in the greatest need of outreach for legitimate information. I don't think there's a sense that appearances like this will have him converting all the morons, but if he (and others) are able to draw in a significant percentage, every bit helps.

[malchior]

I figured that was the reason. I just can't believe it will matter. Unless they are convinced by his sensible push back on dumbness.

[Holman]

It's still remarkable that Trump hasn't come forward to encourage vaccination. There's a huge amount of goodwill just lying on the table for him to claim. He'd have as many cycles of positive coverage as he wanted.

The only explanation is that he thinks it would help Biden, and denying that is worth any amount of sickness and death.

[Max Peck]

It's still remarkable that Trump hasn't come forward to encourage vaccination. There's a huge amount of goodwill just lying on the table for him to claim. He'd have as many cycles of positive coverage as he wanted.

The only explanation is that he thinks it would help Biden, and denying that is worth any amount of sickness and death.

He did, in his usual half-assed way.

Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday recommended that all eligible Americans get the coronavirus vaccine when their opportunity comes, though he added a caveat that he also respects people's decisions not to get one.

Trump had faced growing calls for him to encourage his supporters — especially Republican men, who have voiced cynicism about the vaccine — to get vaccinated.

"I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don't want to get it. And a lot of those people voted for me, frankly. But, you know, again, we have our freedoms and we have to live by that, and I agree with that also," Trump said during an interview with Fox News on Tuesday. "But it's a great vaccine, it's a safe vaccine, and it's something that works."

[Kraken]

It's still remarkable that Trump hasn't come forward to encourage vaccination. There's a huge amount of goodwill just lying on the table for him to claim. He'd have as many cycles of positive coverage as he wanted.

The only explanation is that he thinks it would help Biden, and denying that is worth any amount of sickness and death.

Yeah, Warp Speed is arguably the only thing his admin got right about the pandemic. Hard to take a victory lap when your own minions don't trust the vaccines. I think you're right -- ending the pandemic is foundational to everything else Biden wants to do, so let's keep the pandemic going to own the libs.

[Pyperkub]

It's still remarkable that Trump hasn't come forward to encourage vaccination. There's a huge amount of goodwill just lying on the table for him to claim. He'd have as many cycles of positive coverage as he wanted.

The only explanation is that he thinks it would help Biden, and denying that is worth any amount of sickness and death.

Yeah, Warp Speed is arguably the only thing his admin got right about the pandemic. Hard to take a victory lap when your own minions don't trust the vaccines. I think you're right -- ending the pandemic is foundational to everything else Biden wants to do, so let's keep the pandemic going to own the libs.

And even that was incomplete with minimal actual planning. It was just throwing money, which is the easy part.

[YellowKing]

Also important to note millions of dollars earmarked for hospitals and healthcare workers was taken to help pay for Operation Warp Speed by the Trump Administration. Like everything "positive" Trump did, it's tainted with grift, shadiness, and doing the bare minimum right thing possible for an obvious situation.

[Smoove_B]

A reminder for the "it's no big deal" folks:

https://twitter.com/margolis_r/status/1 ... 4220230664

Our research out today in @JAMA Pediatrics finds that 40,000 children in the US have lost a parent to #covid19

[Paingod]

There were 19,502 incorporated places registered in the United States as of July 31, 2019

That's enough dead parents for each registered town/city/village in the US to have 2 broken families.

[Smoove_B]

Won't somebody think of of the children?

Children now playing 'huge role' in spread of COVID-19 variant

Osterholm previously supported sending children back to school. He said the virus was not a major threat to children. Now, the situation has changed.

"Please understand, this B.1.1.7 variant is a brand new ball game," Osterholm said on NBC's Meet the Press. "It infects kids very readily. Unlike previous strains of the virus, we didn't see children under 8th grade get infected often or they were not frequently very ill, they didn't transmit to the rest of the community."

...

"Anywhere you look where you see this emerging, you see that kids are playing a huge role in the transmission of this," Osterholm said. "All the things that we had planned for about kids in schools with this virus are really no longer applicable. We've got to take a whole new look at this issue."

Vaccinations are expected to help fight off the B.1.1.7 variant. However, Osterholm said there's simply not enough time to just rely on vaccinations.

[noxiousdog]

I love how they give statistics for everyone but those under 18, and then blame the children. As an example, less than 20% of Minnesota schools have even a single case, but ZOMG SHUT THEM ALL DOWN.

[Smoove_B]

I think you're missing the message here. The NIH study Dr. Osterholm is referring to confirms the study done in the UK. Namely, that on top of being more contagious, this variant seems to be more readily spread by kids. This means that as states are opening up more and more activities (school, sports, etc....) to children, it's entirely likely that they could start driving a rapid increase in cases in the coming weeks:

In Michigan, many schools reopened and youth sports resumed just as the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant spread widely. There, cases are rising among all age groups, but the largest number of new COVID-19 cases is among children ages 10-19, the first time that's happened since the start of the pandemic.

Over the past month, incidence in this age group has more than doubled in the state. Cases among younger children — infants through 9-year-olds — are also going up, increasing by more than 230% since Feb. 19, according to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

Same story in MA:

In Massachusetts, the largest number of new COVID-19 infections in the last 2 weeks was among children and teens. Massachusetts has the fifth-highest number of recorded B.1.1.7 cases in the United States, according to CDC data.

Kids (on the whole) aren't developing debilitating symptoms - even with the new variant. But there's still a message out there that kids are (1) unable to get COVID and (2) not spreading it, all stemming from early beliefs in 2020.

The point here is that so many of the policies and recommendations aren't considering the role children might play in driving outbreaks related to this new variant. When Dr. Osterholm raises a point, he's a trusted voice to listen to.

[Lorini]

The other thing is that policy makers need to understand that the science evolves all the time on this pandemic. It's not like measles or polio where the science is 'tried and true' so to speak. I think the only 'science' regarding Covid that I was disturbed by was the very initial thought that you didn't need to wear masks. That seemed cray cray to me and I got me some masks right away, 'science' or not.

[noxiousdog]

I think you're missing the message here. The NIH study Dr. Osterholm is referring to confirms the study done in the UK. Namely, that on top of being more contagious, this variant seems to be more readily spread by kids. This means that as states are opening up more and more activities (school, sports, etc....) to children, it's entirely likely that they could start driving a rapid increase in cases in the coming weeks:

In Michigan, many schools reopened and youth sports resumed just as the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant spread widely. There, cases are rising among all age groups, but the largest number of new COVID-19 cases is among children ages 10-19, the first time that's happened since the start of the pandemic.

Over the past month, incidence in this age group has more than doubled in the state. Cases among younger children — infants through 9-year-olds — are also going up, increasing by more than 230% since Feb. 19, according to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

Same story in MA:

In Massachusetts, the largest number of new COVID-19 infections in the last 2 weeks was among children and teens. Massachusetts has the fifth-highest number of recorded B.1.1.7 cases in the United States, according to CDC data.

Kids (on the whole) aren't developing debilitating symptoms - even with the new variant. But there's still a message out there that kids are (1) unable to get COVID and (2) not spreading it, all stemming from early beliefs in 2020.

The point here is that so many of the policies and recommendations aren't considering the role children might play in driving outbreaks related to this new variant. When Dr. Osterholm raises a point, he's a trusted voice to listen to.

There's only 6 weeks left of school anyway.

Regardless, 1) has always been balderdash, and 2) it depends on how you define children. Teens have always been able to spread it. Is there evidence that 9-year-olds are now doing it? I would suspect with the new variant the transmission likelyhood has certainly moved lower on the age curve (and really is related to air volume as opposed to age).

The frustrating part of this continues to be the same as it always is. If you follow obvious precautions, COVID is relatively hard to spread. It's only the idiots that that refuse common sense rules that ruin it for everyone.

I continuously worry that the fear and overreaction continues to cause more people to avoid obvious precautions.

[Max Peck]

Ontario imposes stay-at-home order as COVID-19 cases surge but stops short of instituting paid sick days

Ontario has declared its third provincewide state of emergency, issuing a stay-at-home order effective 12:01 a.m. Thursday as the number of COVID-19 cases surge.

The province is also expanding vaccine eligibility for more people over the age of 18 in regions hardest hit by the virus, starting with Toronto and Peel.

Premier Doug Ford said that mobile teams are being organized to offer vaccines in high-risk congregate settings, residential buildings, faith-based locations, and places occupied by large employers in hot spot neighbourhoods. Education workers in high-risk neighbourhoods will be allowed to book vaccinations starting next week, he said.

"I continue to ask everyone to get a vaccine as soon as you're eligible to do so," Ford said, adding that those who are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine are "putting your life in jeopardy."

Ford also said if vaccination supplies stay consistent, he hopes to have 40 per cent of Ontario adults vaccinated by the end of the new, four-week stay-at-home order.

The new measures do not include paid sick days, despite repeated calls by medical professionals, including the medical officers of health from Toronto, Peel and Ottawa.

"There's paid sick leave from the federal government," Ford said Wednesday. He accused those calling for his government to ensure paid sick days of "playing politics," before repeatedly urging people to use the federal program.

The federal government last fall introduced the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, which provides $500 per week for up to two weeks to eligible workers. Critics say the program provides less than a full-time minimum wage job, involves processing delays of up to four weeks, and doesn't guarantee job security for workers who use it.

[Smoove_B]

Everything old is new again:

Nearly half of new coronavirus infections nationwide are in just five states — a situation that is putting pressure on the federal government to consider changing how it distributes vaccines by sending more doses to hot spots.

New York, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey together reported 44% of the nation’s new COVID-19 infections, or nearly 197,500 new cases, in the latest available seven-day period, according to state health agency data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Total U.S. infections during the same week numbered more than 452,000.

[Isgrimnur]

I’m glad Texas isn’t on the list.

[noxiousdog]

I’m glad Texas isn’t on the list.

I'm not sure how. Greg Abbot swore we were smuggling in as many immigrants with COVID as possible.

[Isgrimnur]

Abbott is full of shit.

[Smoove_B]

I had to make sure this was a story from 2021 and not April of 2020:

A gym in Quebec City has now been linked to 419 cases of COVID-19 after staff and clients got infected and unknowingly carried the virus to grocery stores, homes, and workplaces, the regional health authority said Wednesday.

A spokesman for the CIUSSS de la Capitale-Nationale said that as of Wednesday morning, 195 clients and staff of the Mega Fitness Gym, which authorities shut down last week, have tested positive for the virus.

[noxiousdog]

Abbott is full of shit.

Ya think?

[Smoove_B]

The frustrating part of this continues to be the same as it always is. If you follow obvious precautions, COVID is relatively hard to spread. It's only the idiots that that refuse common sense rules that ruin it for everyone.

To a degree. But when you have communities with high transmission that are demanding in-person instruction, they cannot follow the recommended guidelines:

At 10 a.m. Wednesday, the district reported 145 students and four staff members are currently positive or presumed positive for the disease, according to the district's COVID-19 dashboard....The district has quarantined/suspended in-person activities for 10 classrooms but no extra-curricular groups as a result of potential exposure to students and staff; a total of 699 students and 19 staff members are currently being asked to quarantine.

A district spokesperson said Wednesday that while the district is tracking both confirmed and presumed positive cases, contact tracing is only conducted for confirmed positive cases. The increase in positive or presumed positive cases and students being asked to quarantine over the last several days is due, in part, she said, "to the influx of students in our buildings since returning to 100% on-site learning and the inability to no longer maintain proper social distancing measures."

I'm seeing random stories like this from all over the US. We're needlessly putting kids (and their families) at risk because we're incapable of following the recommended guidelines - both as a community and as individuals.

I continuously worry that the fear and overreaction continues to cause more people to avoid obvious precautions

I worry about all the kids that are potentially going to be living with 50+ years of chronic health complications because we prioritized the economy over keeping them safe.

[malchior]

I worry about all the kids that are potentially going to be living with 50+ years of chronic health complications because we prioritized the economy over keeping them safe.

This is as American as cherry pie. We've always prioritized the economy over everything. I can only imagine how it was during the Spanish Flu with child labor still legal.

[ImLawBoy]

For what it's worth, the wife and I have pretty much decided we're going to keep the twins home for the final quarter of the year. It sucks, but none of the factors seem to be trending positive in the short term.

[El Guapo]

My kids' private (sectarian) school has been in person since last September, and (knock on wood) it's gone well - I think during that time two kids and one staff member have tested positive, with no apparent in-school transmission. The school has a lot of advantages that many schools don't - a relatively new well-ventilated building, ample space (indoors and outdoors), and a school community that is generally supportive of COVID precautions. But at least in can work depending on the circumstances.

But still - right now seems like an odd time to go in person, with only six weeks or so left of school and in a situation where we're making such good progress on vaccinating. Why go through the disruption of switching everyone to school now, instead of focusing on returning to in person in the fall, when (presumably) substantially all of the teachers and staff at least will be vaccinated?

[noxiousdog]

I worry about all the kids that are potentially going to be living with 50+ years of chronic health complications because we prioritized the economy over keeping them safe.

That's the binary thinking that is contributing to the nonsense.

There are things we know.

COVID-19 r0 in the wild with no precautions is somewhere around 4.
COVID-19 r0 in the US with our current hap-hazard rules and guidelines is 1.2.

It is pretty contagious indoors, with speaking, and poor ventilation.

It is not anywhere else to the point that if you're in a house with a COVID-19 contagious person, you only have about a 50% chance of catching it.

Ergo, it is imminently possible to provide guidelines and guidance to minimize long poorly ventilated speaking situations while still allowing the economy (and more importantly, school) to continue.

Now, I get it. We've got a lot of stupid populace and unethical government officials so the idea that we could get people to comply with said guidelines and guidance is asking a lot. But, like in everything else there's a lot of noise on the fringes and a lot of people in the middle that go with the best marketed ideas.

[noxiousdog]

And re: Iowa, that district has 14,000 students.

[ImLawBoy]

Chicago Public Schools (pre-K through 8) have been in-person for a couple of months now, but on an opt-in basis. You could choose to opt in when they first opened (we declined) or can choose for fourth quarter. We said we'd go for fourth quarter knowing we could back out at any time (but not the reverse - you can't say you won't go and then opt in). So it's not like they're just starting the system now - we're just at a new decision point in the process.

[Smoove_B]

Now, I get it. We've got a lot of stupid populace and unethical government officials so the idea that we could get people to comply with said guidelines and guidance is asking a lot. But, like in everything else there's a lot of noise on the fringes and a lot of people in the middle that go with the best marketed ideas.

The ship on the economy sailed back in the Spring/Summer of 2020. We're still living with how the initial outbreak was handled and what we collectively decided to do over the summer. As a result, there was more spread and new variants - variants that kids are seemingly now catching and spreading. A culprit right now? Sports:

Some outbreaks of the B.1.1.7 variant appear to be driven by youth sports. For instance, in Carver County, Minn., an outbreak of 189 cases was connected to school sports teams. The interlinked cases spanned elementary through high school, affecting 18 hockey teams, four basketball teams, three lacrosse teams and one soccer team. At least one of those people, a 62-year-old hockey referee, died.

More here.

"We're finding out that it's the team sports where kids are getting together, obviously many without masks, that are driving it, rather than in the classroom spread," Fauci told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Tuesday on "Good Morning America." "When you go back and take a look and try and track where these clusters of cases are coming from in the school, it's just that."

So yeah, classrooms aren't the problem. Community activities - in this case sports associated with school - are the problem. And they're a problem because a year ago we decided the economy was more important than squashing circulating virus. So we're in the gyre of the next peak here in the NE. Will vaccination save the midwest and south laster this year? We'll see.

If I sound frustrated it's because so much of this was avoidable. So much.

[Smoove_B]

Here's the first MMWR that details exactly the type of thing I am talking about:

During February 2021, an opening event was held indoors at a rural Illinois bar that accommodates approximately 100 persons. The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) and local health department staff members investigated a COVID-19 outbreak associated with this opening event. Overall, 46 COVID-19 cases were linked to the event, including cases in 26 patrons and three staff members who attended the opening event and 17 secondary cases. Four persons with cases had COVID-19–like symptoms on the same day they attended the event. Secondary cases included 12 cases in eight households with children, two on a school sports team, and three in a long-term care facility (LTCF). Transmission associated with the opening event resulted in one school closure affecting 650 children (9,100 lost person-days of school) and hospitalization of one LTCF resident with COVID-19. These findings demonstrate that opening up settings such as bars, where mask wearing and physical distancing are challenging, can increase the risk for community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

So because one bar held an opening event attended by ~100 people that had inconsistent mask use and did not maintain distance, 9100 lost person-days of school occurred.

[LawBeefaroni]

Here's the first MMWR that details exactly the type of thing I am talking about:

During February 2021, an opening event was held indoors at a rural Illinois bar that accommodates approximately 100 persons. The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) and local health department staff members investigated a COVID-19 outbreak associated with this opening event. Overall, 46 COVID-19 cases were linked to the event, including cases in 26 patrons and three staff members who attended the opening event and 17 secondary cases. Four persons with cases had COVID-19–like symptoms on the same day they attended the event. Secondary cases included 12 cases in eight households with children, two on a school sports team, and three in a long-term care facility (LTCF). Transmission associated with the opening event resulted in one school closure affecting 650 children (9,100 lost person-days of school) and hospitalization of one LTCF resident with COVID-19. These findings demonstrate that opening up settings such as bars, where mask wearing and physical distancing are challenging, can increase the risk for community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

So because one bar held an opening event attended by ~100 people that had inconsistent mask use and did not maintain distance, 9100 lost person-days of school occurred.

Can't put a price on Freedom™.

[noxiousdog]

So yeah, classrooms aren't the problem. Community activities - in this case sports associated with school - are the problem. And they're a problem because a year ago we decided the economy was more important than squashing circulating virus. So we're in the gyre of the next peak here in the NE. Will vaccination save the midwest and south laster this year? We'll see.

If I sound frustrated it's because so much of this was avoidable. So much.

Yes and no. I'm willing to bet nearly all of that spread was not due to outdoor activity, but due to indoor activity. Yes, soccer and lacrosse were mentioned, but more than likely it was locker rooms.

[Smoove_B]

Yes and no. I'm willing to bet nearly all of that spread was not due to outdoor activity, but due to indoor activity. Yes, soccer and lacrosse were mentioned, but more than likely it was locker rooms.

I think locker rooms are part of it, but maybe not as large as you might think. Why haven't swim teams seen outbreaks? I've seen wrestling teams (which, quite frankly, I'd suspect as risk #1) implicated here in NJ, but the scale (I think because of limited size of team) is much smaller. I think there's likely more risk potential when the kids are physically interacting - pushing each other around, banging into each other (hockey, basketball, soccer) than playing something like baseball or tennis - everything else being equal. I'm guessing mask compliance drops significantly and the heavy breathing + close contact (indoors or outdoors) dramatically increases risk. That's why wrestling surprises me so much. Yes cases are happening, but they're not nearly as much of a driving force as I thought they'd be. Maybe they're better at screening/testing than other sports. I have no idea.

Either way, none of this would matter nearly as much if circulating virus levels weren't through the roof and had been substantially squashed last year.

[Kraken]

I'm probably being overcautious. Saturday's going to be a beautiful day here, and restaurants have their patios going again. Wife suggested going out for lunch. That's wicked tempting, but community spread is still very high relative to last summer, the virus has grown more contagious and more deadly, and I think it's really foolish to take any unnecessary risks when we're three weeks away from our second shot and five weeks from immunity. Think of how embarrassed you'd be if you died of covid because it was a nice day and breakfast burritos are so good.

She reluctantly agreed to hold out for one more month. I'm still double-masking at the grocery store. We've come too far to be the last soldier to die in a war.

[hepcat]

Got my first pfizer shot today thanks to Zarathud’s wife sending me some tips on how to get it done in Chicago.

But now I’m wondering if it was necessary because Ted Nugent just cracked this whole thing wide open by pointing out we survived COVID 1 through 18 just fine.

[Isgrimnur]

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/13 ... 1437145089

For the first time in the pandemic, Canada about to cross US for new cases per capita

[Max Peck]

For the first time in the pandemic, Canada about to cross US for new cases per capita

I read an article yesterday that discussed that point. I'd link to it, but I can't remember where it was. Their explanation for the shift in relative infection rates is that while the US is in a neck-and-neck race between vaccination and variant spread, Canada is losing the same race.

[Skinypupy]

Good news everyone. As of today, COVID-19 is no longer a threat, because the Utah legislature declared it so (mask mandate expired today). Mrs Skinypupy went to get her car serviced this morning and said that most people - including the employees - were no longer wearing masks.

Getting my first shot next Friday, so think I’ll just avoid leaving the house for the next week+.