Wildfires 2021 edition

[Jaymon]

Isn't it a little bit early for wildfires?

yes, yes it is

[Jaymon]

I just got a text alert from the county for unseasonably high fire danger for basically all of western Oregon.
After the insanity of last summer, it scared the bejeebers out of me, we got a similar text right before the state burned down.

[Kurth]

Not again! Last time, we fled to stay with family in Florida for two weeks. I don’t know if we’ll come back if this shit happens again.

[Jaymon]

Many cities in Western Oregon are recording record high temperatures. Yesterday Portland reached 84 (record), and forecast remains in mid 80's for a couple more days. A few fires on the fire map, nothing major, largest was 200 acres. But its flipping April, it should be raining, not suncreen and fire danger. I got a bad feeling about this.

[Smoove_B]

I hate to break the news to the Left-Coasters, but all the emergency management and environmental scientist folks I follow keep repeating that wildfires are going to be the new normal for a significant number of people in California, and parts of Oregon - related to the warming of the planet, how the regional climate is changing and how development has encroached into areas that cannot be managed.

[hitbyambulance]

i'm tempted to move away from here - the smoke event of last September left me with significant PTSD. i'd rather deal with tornado season than wildfire smoke season. a thick toxic cloud that hangs around for weeks at a time and seeps into your house? nightmares.

[Jaymon]

Oregon Governor declares emergency due to threat of fire

Where there is heatwave, there is fire.

Multiple cities in Oregon and Washington have put in emergency bans on fireworks for this year.

[Anonymous Bosch]

I hate to break the news to the Left-Coasters, but all the emergency management and environmental scientist folks I follow keep repeating that wildfires are going to be the new normal for a significant number of people in California, and parts of Oregon - related to the warming of the planet, how the regional climate is changing and how development has encroached into areas that cannot be managed.

Alas, a hefty dose of bureaucratic intransigence and deficiency is perhaps an even more significant factor…

[gilraen]

Please take that to R&P.

[hitbyambulance]

i get a mini PTSD attack every time there's something new posted in this thread

[jztemple2]

i'm tempted to move away from here - the smoke event of last September left me with significant PTSD. i'd rather deal with tornado season than wildfire smoke season. a thick toxic cloud that hangs around for weeks at a time and seeps into your house? nightmares.

Come to Florida! We get several days notice of hurricanes, which really aren't as damaging to most folks* as the news would have you believe. The air has gotten amazing good since the sixties; Spanish moss is back in abundance and birds are everywhere, at least where I live. And unlike the west, we don't have water issues unless you move to someplace like Miami.

Yes, we can have wildfire issues, but the last time they were serious was back in 1994. We have a rainy season from end of May through mid-October, cool but temperate winters, and the fall and spring are great.

* Yes, there are plenty of instances of severe damage, but that is almost always confined to near the coast where high winds and storm surge combine to really make things nasty. And I'm speaking as someone who has lived in Florida since 1967.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Please take that to R&P.

No, because simply observing that forest management -- and lack thereof -- also plays an undeniably significant role in reducing the risk and limiting the intensity of wildfires is no more inherently "R&P" than Smoove's observations regarding climate change (besides, neither idea is mutually exclusive; one can certainly believe that forest management plays a significant role while also believing climate change has additionally made things worse, which the video I posted plainly also elucidates).

[hitbyambulance]

Come to Florida! We get several days notice of hurricanes, which really aren't as damaging to most folks* as the news would have you believe. The air has gotten amazing good since the sixties; Spanish moss is back in abundance and birds are everywhere, at least where I live. And unlike the west, we don't have water issues unless you move to someplace like Miami.

Yes, we can have wildfire issues, but the last time they were serious was back in 1994. We have a rainy season from end of May through mid-October, cool but temperate winters, and the fall and spring are great.

* Yes, there are plenty of instances of severe damage, but that is almost always confined to near the coast where high winds and storm surge combine to really make things nasty. And I'm speaking as someone who has lived in Florida since 1967.

you make Florida sound... appealing, somehow.

[Blackhawk]

I think if I were planning a move, I would be looking at what the climate is anticipated to look like in 20 or 30 years rather than what it's like today.

[jztemple2]

I think if I were planning a move, I would be looking at what the climate is anticipated to look like in 20 or 30 years rather than what it's like today.

Hmm, I don't know. How many people (besides myself ) really plan to be in the same place in 20 or 30 years? I would think you'd want to be happier with your location for the next ten or twenty years and then move again if necessary.

[Max Peck]

After seeing record high temperatures for several consecutive days, the village of Lytton has essentially burned to the ground in a wildfire.

Heatwave record village overwhelmingly burned in wildfire

A wildfire has burned 90% of the village that recorded Canada's highest ever temperature, the local MP says.

Brad Vis said the fire had caused extensive damage to Lytton, in British Columbia, and to surrounding critical infrastructure.

Lytton's mayor earlier ordered people to evacuate, saying flames had spread through the village in just 15 minutes.

The village this week recorded the country's highest ever temperature of 49.6C (121.3F).

Abnormally high temperatures have been recorded in swathes of North America.

British Columbia, in western Canada, recorded 486 deaths over five days compared with an average of 165 in normal times.

Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe blamed the extreme weather. The western province had seen only three heat-related deaths over the past three to five years.

https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/14 ... 2049595394

[hitbyambulance]

what is so stressful about the smoke is you have this poison gas ... ok, toxic cloud... perpetually hanging around your house, and finding constant ingress _into_ the house. there's no way to get away from it. it's a miserable, life-shortening way to exist, which is why i'm starting to consider leaving the west coast. super glad i didn't buy a condo here (or house, back when they were almost affordable for an average person).

[Alefroth]

Fuck

[Holman]

I think if I were planning a move, I would be looking at what the climate is anticipated to look like in 20 or 30 years rather than what it's like today.

Hmm, I don't know. How many people (besides myself ) really plan to be in the same place in 20 or 30 years? I would think you'd want to be happier with your location for the next ten or twenty years and then move again if necessary.

People are definitely planning for the climate future.

My sister lives in central California and is looking forward to early retirement, and she's planning to leave the state for wildfire and expense reasons. She'll likely move to coastal Alabama and live with my widowed mother on Mobile Bay, but we've also discussed that eventually both of them (depending on the rate of Southern climate collapse) might join me and my family in Philadelphia.

[Smoove_B]

As far as I know this was last updated ~10 months ago, but you can see what the biggest climate risks are for various parts of America, which was published in the NYT.

[jztemple2]

As far as I know this was last updated ~10 months ago, but you can see what the biggest climate risks are for various parts of America, which was published in the NYT.

Hmm, I'm not that impressed with the map. Hurricanes are a lot more disastrous near the coast, but the map shows the same level of risk 50 miles inland.

[Smoove_B]

It's a future map - what you can expect to be problematic in decades to come - so the risk (I'd think) is going to become greater for those living more inland than right now. There should also be two major risks. For Florida, I'd expect (1) hurricanes and (2) clean water.

[Isgrimnur]

50 miles inland will be the new coast.

[jztemple2]

50 miles inland will be the new coast.

Depends on how far in the future we are looking I guess. As the article notes, every place has climate risks so it's the devil you want to face.

[Alefroth]

50 miles inland will be the new coast.

Depends on how far in the future we are looking I guess. As the article notes, every place has climate risks so it's the devil you want to face.

I would think not all of the risks can be equally mitigated. Some places are going to be easier to live than others, with regards to the devils.

[Kraken]

50 miles inland will be the new coast.

Depends on how far in the future we are looking I guess. As the article notes, every place has climate risks so it's the devil you want to face.

I would think not all of the risks can be equally mitigated. Some places are going to be easier to live than others, with regards to the devils.

They say Boston will have Virginia's climate by 2050. Which doesn't sound unpleasant, but already conifers are dying out at sea level ("retreating to higher elevations," as if they're picking up and moving). They need cold winters, and ours are getting shorter and warmer. I'd miss pine trees if I were to live long enough.

I'd suggest that we hang out signs saying "the Frost Belt welcomes you back," except we don't.

[Kurth]

i'm tempted to move away from here - the smoke event of last September left me with significant PTSD. i'd rather deal with tornado season than wildfire smoke season. a thick toxic cloud that hangs around for weeks at a time and seeps into your house? nightmares.

Come to Florida! We get several days notice of hurricanes, which really aren't as damaging to most folks* as the news would have you believe. The air has gotten amazing good since the sixties; Spanish moss is back in abundance and birds are everywhere, at least where I live. And unlike the west, we don't have water issues unless you move to someplace like Miami.

Yes, we can have wildfire issues, but the last time they were serious was back in 1994. We have a rainy season from end of May through mid-October, cool but temperate winters, and the fall and spring are great.

* Yes, there are plenty of instances of severe damage, but that is almost always confined to near the coast where high winds and storm surge combine to really make things nasty. And I'm speaking as someone who has lived in Florida since 1967.

On my way! Seriously.

During the wildfires here last September, we up and fled to family in Jacksonville. We were there for 3 weeks and not only enjoyed being with family, but really fell in love with some areas of the FL coast (Amelia Island is the bomb). On the way home, we started thinking seriously about why we were living in a place that has all the issues that the Portland metro area has right now. Given remote work, we had no disruption whatsoever when we were in FL. We agreed that we'd let our oldest finish his senior year here in OR, but we started laying plans to move to the Jacksonville, FL area in June 2022.

First big step on that front came last week when I told my boss my plans to relocate. He's not the last person I need to sign off, but without his support, the idea would be dead in the water, and I love my job and would have a really hard time making the move if I couldn't keep it. But when I told him my plans, he was completely supportive, even though it bucks the policy we're putting in place aiming to have people in the office 3 days a week. We need to get people up the chain to sign off and grant me an exception to the new policy, but with my manager's support, I'm pretty optimistic.

So, if we can just make it through this summer and fall without getting burned/smoked out, we should be good to go!

[Alefroth]

Some intense wildfire activity in BC. It's like a self-replicating wildfire creator.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 2213413889

[hitbyambulance]

eastern WA/northern ID/western MT looking just great

[malchior]

As far as I know this was last updated ~10 months ago, but you can see what the biggest climate risks are for various parts of America, which was published in the NYT.

Hmm, I'm not that impressed with the map. Hurricanes are a lot more disastrous near the coast, but the map shows the same level of risk 50 miles inland.

Just seeing this but here is something to consider. I am more than 50 miles inland in NJ. Sandy did millions of dollars of damage just to *MY TOWN*. It was one of the biggest disasters in NJ/NY history at $65B of damage. And I think that is an undercalculation because there are still ongoing issues due to Sandy storm damage throughout various infrastructure elements here. Sure a higher percentage is coastal/NYC but it did $100M canadian in inland Ontario and Montreal even.

On a personal level I had just bought my house weeks before and it did $15K of damage just to my property. I saw entire swaths of forest leveled up to 100 miles inland. I went on a camping trip the next spring and the campground I usually use had just re-opened from a Sandy cleanup on the other side of the Delaware River (120 miles inland). They lost about 20% of their tree canopy. Sandy was just a monster. It was barely a Cat 1 (or had just dropped below Cat 1) when it came ashore in southern coastal NJ yet was monstrously huge and did crazy amounts of damage as it churned inland. It is evidence that hurricane risks are much higher than people realize.

[hitbyambulance]

from Fort MacMurray Today (Alberta, Canada)

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better in terms of fire,” Marshall said. “Firefighters tend to talk about 30/30 conditions; temperatures above 30 and relative humidity below 30. And that’s exactly what we get around here . . . It’s a very solid prediction under any climate change scenario I’ve ever seen for where we live.”

“It’s going to have pretty severe forest impacts and evacuations and costs, air quality issues and very direct fire hazards if you’re living and playing in the foothills.”

Though Marshall said it does sound all very doom and gloom, taking the politics out of the equation is key to learning how to cope with climate change in Alberta.

“Not everything is negative with climate change but these kind of intense heat waves and fires and water stress is something we’re going to need to learn to live with in coming decades.”

"It's going to get worse before it gets better"? what is that supposed to mean? shouldn't it be "It's going to get worse and worse until we all burn to a crisp or asphyxiate/die from lung cancer from the smoke"?

[malchior]

I'm approximately 25 miles away from this photo but I first noticed this haze yesterday morning when my solar off-grid gazebo array was reading very low despite cloud free skies. Today I'm even lower. I just took a look and my 300W array should be running about 100-125W now with cloud free skies but is running about 20W.

https://twitter.com/kevinrschultz/statu ... 1287744515

[Jaymon]

The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon is about 400,000 acres.
its the largest current fire in America, and one of the biggest fires experienced in Oregon

Last week, when it was a mere 200,000 acres, fire officials said it would probably burn until fall.

[malchior]

The fire now ranks as the 4th largest in terms of acreage since 1900 after overtaking both the Holloway (2012, 245,000 acres) and Bandon (1936, 287,000 acres) fires.

Only the Long Draw (2012, 558,198 acres); Biscuit (2002, 500,000 acres); and Buzzard Complex (2014, 395,747 acres) have burned more acres.

At its recent rate of growth, the Bootleg could reach No. 3 on that list by the middle of this week - if not sooner.

The Bootleg is also larger than any of the fires that broke out on Labor Day on Oregon and destroyed homes and businesses in communities in the McKenzie River corridor and Santiam Canyon, as well as neighborhoods in both the greater Portland suburbs and southern Oregon.

All of the largest in the last ~20 years.

[Kurth]

What's been really strange is seeing those pictures of NYC but living in the Portland metro area and experiencing crystal clear skies and clean air this whole time. My friends and family on the east coast keep asking about us, concerned that we're getting smoked out again, but it's been clear sailing so far. I guess because the Bootleg fire is in southern OR, the prevailing winds are just carrying all that smoke east and missing us so far. It's a terrible feeling, though, seeing those pictures and feeling like the shoe could drop at any moment with a shift in the winds.

I'm sure I speak for everyone in the Portland area (and beyond), I do not want to go through the smoke we dealt with last year.

[Kraken]

The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon is about 400,000 acres.
its the largest current fire in America, and one of the biggest fires experienced in Oregon

Last week, when it was a mere 200,000 acres, fire officials said it would probably burn until fall.

I learned that Oregon is mostly wilderness. Despite the size of that fire, it threatens very few structures or human lives.

[Isgrimnur]

It’s like 1/5th desert.

[Isgrimnur]

CNN

A Southern California couple whose gender reveal party allegedly sparked the deadly El Dorado wildfire in 2020 has been charged with 30 crimes, including involuntary manslaughter, authorities announced Tuesday.

A smoke bomb set off by the couple in Yucaipa, California, on September 5 as part of a gender reveal sparked a fire that went on to burn more than 22,000 acres across two counties, San Bernardino County District Attorney Jason Anderson said during a news conference.

One firefighter was killed while battling the flames and two others were injured, according to Anderson. The fire destroyed several homes and burned more than 22,000 acres, his office said.

[hitbyambulance]

I'm sure I speak for everyone in the Portland area (and beyond), I do not want to go through the smoke we dealt with last year.

i've been living in dread the last few weeks anticipating this (have been through smoke-outs several times now, in Seattle). looks like everyone gets to share the pain this year

thread title should be "Wildfires: it's a marathon, not a sprint"

[jztemple2]

From Space.com, Wildfire smoke spreads across US in striking images from space

NASA has released striking satellite images of wildfire smoke clouds covering vast swaths of the U.S., from the West Coast all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.

And Canada too