Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:13 am

Got a family member who has a son my age. We grew up near each other and played a lot together. His mom is a big Trumper. Trump this Trump that . Trump is God and a savior. Got so sick of her dumb ass postings I stopped bothering with her. She was the typical COVID is a lie person. Then a few months back they found her son..again my age....slumped out beside his bed. Had COVID and almost died. In fact Im not sure how he is. But Ive not seen a single post from her in months. I doubt she stopped bungholing Trump but she is quiet now at least.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:44 am

We're sitting at 38%. We shop in a 39%. The kids go to school in a 32%.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:44 pm

stessier wrote:
LordMortis wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:32 pm I was confuzzled. The only DHEC, I know is a circuit identifier to let you know your T1 is PRI.
Department of Health and Environmental Control

So, the Department of... Control?

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:38 am

Something interesting is happening in the Netherlands.

It seems to correlate with the onset of the Delta variant, but there doesn't seem to be any corresponding increase in hospitalization/deaths so far. I wonder if this is what the Delta variant looks like in a mostly vaccinated population that has mostly dropped public health restrictions. I haven't been able to find specific information on just how much they had reopened prior to the surge, just that they have reimposed some measures in response to the exponential increase in infections.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:40 am

There's been a spike in Israel too, from single digit new cases / day to ~ 450 / day. I think no corresponding increase in deaths yet, like in the Netherlands. The Israeli government has made third shot "boosters" available to the immunocompromised, and is debating whether to do that for the general public.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:40 am

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1 ... 2325861377

UsulofDoom · Post by **UsulofDoom** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:46 am

I'm not sure how stats work when looking at these charts. Does this make sence to any one? How do you have 115.4% fully vaccinated? How do you get 232 doses administered per 100 people? Garbage in garbage out. Thanks CNN for the truth!

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/he ... cinations/

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:03 am

UsulofDoom wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:46 am I'm not sure how stats work when looking at these charts. Does this make sence to any one? How do you have 115.4% fully vaccinated? How do you get 232 doses administered per 100 people? Garbage in garbage out. Thanks CNN for the truth!

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/he ... cinations/

It looks like the problem with all the data is Gibraltar. CNN is using data from Our World in Data - so not sure anyone is looking at it once the graphics were created.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:03 am

Max Peck wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:38 am Something interesting is happening in the Netherlands.

It seems to correlate with the onset of the Delta variant, but there doesn't seem to be any corresponding increase in hospitalization/deaths so far. I wonder if this is what the Delta variant looks like in a mostly vaccinated population that has mostly dropped public health restrictions. I haven't been able to find specific information on just how much they had reopened prior to the surge, just that they have reimposed some measures in response to the exponential increase in infections.

Hey, they flattened the curve out, and even spelled Netherlands with it. That's rather impressive.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:05 am

UsulofDoom wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:46 am I'm not sure how stats work when looking at these charts. Does this make sence to any one? How do you have 115.4% fully vaccinated? How do you get 232 doses administered per 100 people? Garbage in garbage out. Thanks CNN for the truth!

That is only the case in Gibraltar. My best guess would be that they have been vaccinating non-resident workers in addition to their own citizens, so the stats are skewed because they have a relatively small population (~34k) and are vaccinating a substantial number of foreigners.

COVID-19 pandemic in Gibraltar

On 18 March, UK Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Matt Hancock announced that Gibraltar had completed vaccinating its entire adult population against COVID-19. As a result, Gibraltar became the first area in the world to do so. According to CNN, over 90% of adults had at least one vaccine dose by 1 April while Medical Xpress stated that 85% of adults in Gibraltar were "fully inoculated" by 9 April. Additionally, most of the Spaniards who work in the territory have been vaccinated. In response, Gibraltar revoked most measures put in place during the pandemic, most notably ending mandatory mask-wearing in outdoor spaces. As of 4 May, the territory has not had a new local case in six weeks.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:07 am

Damn it! My money was on Madagascar and Iceland. Screw you, Plague, Inc.!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:09 am

Just saw guidance documents for schools in my state and the indication that the CDC is providing money to states (and schools) to implement testing protocols based on local conditions as we head into the Fall 2021 K-12 school year. Tests can be done by school nurse -or- through a 3rd party testing agency.

Just knowing what I know about vaccinations and masks, I'm guessing once again parents are going to mobilize and shout this down. With ~686 different districts that need to make the call on how this will be offered, at least I can say there will be jobs created at a state level to oversee program management. Biden is creating jobs!

Also, holy shit some poor slob has to coordinate tracking and distribution of funds for 686 school districts, plus all the collection of data (to improve 5G signals).

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:12 am

Well, the US finally managed to flatten the curve. Unfortunately, we waited until it was going down to do it.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:25 am

The province of Saskatchewan has ended all COVID-19 public health restrictions as of 11 July, so I guess we'll see how far relying solely on vaccination will get you in the Delta phase of the pandemic. Additionally, Saskatchewan currently has the lowest vaccination uptake in Canada (71.7% eligible with one dose, 54.1% eligible fully vaccinated).

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:31 am

UsulofDoom wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:46 am I'm not sure how stats work when looking at these charts. Does this make sence to any one? How do you have 115.4% fully vaccinated? How do you get 232 doses administered per 100 people? Garbage in garbage out. Thanks CNN for the truth!

From what I remember reading, Gibraltar vaccinated people outside of Gibraltar (eg, people who work there but live outside, or possibly just people who live nearby and they had to use the shots and everyone eligible inside had already gotten vaccinated).

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am

I am terrified of the epsilon variant.

I know it doesn't exist yet. But with delta running nearly unchecked in approx 1/2 the population of USA, and many places dropping the mask mandate, ow much longer until the virus pops up a mutation that can affect the vaccinated? And then what? We are back to the beginning. Maybe we have a leg up on getting the new vaccine quicker, But we will get even less traction with the vaccine hesitant (see I told you that shit don't work).

its depressing. I am depressed and terrified at the same time. I think I need a new word for this emotion.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:44 am

Jaymon wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am I think I need a new word for this emotion.

Rational thought?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:47 am

Jaymon wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am I am terrified of the epsilon variant.

I know it doesn't exist yet.

I...uh...have some bad news for you. Not only does it exist, but it originated in California.

How much longer until the virus pops up a mutation that can affect the vaccinated? And then what? We are back to the beginning.

This is why it's imperative that we hammer vaccination world wide and we hope corporations and schools mandate the vaccine to deal with the core population that refuses to vaccinate despite overwhelming availability here in the U.S.

I had a discussion with a friend this weekend that is not vaccinating. I tried to get to the core of what the reasoning was and it started out as "don't trust the new vaccine" but eventually I was able to drill down and learn that it's really about opposition over the government telling him what to do. I didn't get into the seatbelt or speed limit discussion at that point, but it was insightful. He seemed resigned to his employer mandating it and he'd do it, but the government? No.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:48 am

Jaymon wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am And then what? We are back to the beginning.

No, we won't be. We'll be back at the beginning with all of the bridges already burned in front of us.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:55 am

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:47 am
Jaymon wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:43 am I am terrified of the epsilon variant.

I know it doesn't exist yet.
I...uh...have some bad news for you. Not only does it exist, but it originated in California.

We're up to lambda

It was first detected in Peru in December 2020.[1] On 14 June 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) named it Lambda variant and designated it as a variant of interest. It has spread to at least 30 countries around the world and may be more resistant to COVID-19 vaccines compared to other strains. It is also suggested that the Lambda variant is more infectious than the Alpha or Gamma variant.
...
First samples of the Lambda variant were detected in Peru in December 2020 and by April 2021, over eighty percent of new cases of COVID-19 in Peru were from the new variant.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:02 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:47 amHe seemed resigned to his employer mandating it and he'd do it, but the government? No.

I've heard this over and over enough to know it's a big driver. It really hammers the damage that Reagan-style Conservative values did to a country that was hard to govern in the first place. This culture is so toxic and self-destructive. I mean people think that somehow employers should have more say than a government ostensibly who are "us"?!?

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:41 pm

Covid-19: Dutch PM Rutte 'sorry for easing restrictions too soon'

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has apologised for "an error of judgement" in scrapping most coronavirus restrictions in the country.

The easing three weeks ago led to infection levels surging to their highest this year as nightlife resumed for large numbers of young people.

Curbs on bars, restaurants and nightclubs were reimposed on Friday.

Previously Mr Rutte had refused to take any blame for the opening up, describing it as a "logical step".

On Saturday, the country's public health institute reported more than 10,000 new Covid cases, the highest number in a single day since December.

But so far this has not translated into a significant increase in hospital admissions, as most of the new cases are among young people.

So I guess that indicates that the low severity of symptoms so far is more due to the age of the infected rather than being break-through infections of vaccinated people resulting in mild symptoms.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:20 pm

Getting back to the "marathon" reality of what's happening, the WHO comments that countries should not be offering boosters while other nations still need vaccines

Rich countries should not be ordering booster shots for their vaccinated populations while other countries have yet to receive COVID-19 vaccines, the World Health Organization said on Monday.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said deaths were again rising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Delta variant was becoming dominant, and many countries had yet to receive enough vaccine doses to protect their health workers.

"The Delta variant is ripping around the world at a scorching pace, driving a new spike in COVID-19 cases and death," Tedros told a briefing, noting that the highly contagious variant, first detected in India, had now been found in more than 104 countries.

"The global gap in COVID-19 vaccine supply is hugely uneven and inequitable. Some countries and regions are actually ordering millions of booster doses, before other countries have had supplies to vaccinate their health workers and most vulnerable," said Tedros.

What does the WHO think countries that have large cohorts of people that refuse to vaccinate should be doing, I wonder. Asking for a friend.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:27 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:20 pmWhat does the WHO think countries that have large cohorts of people that refuse to vaccinate should be doing, I wonder. Asking for a friend.

WHO wrote:Our minds have new eyes and visions of you
Girl, I think I need a minute
To figure out what is, what isn't
These choices and voices, they're all in my head
Sometimes you make me feel crazy
Sometimes, I swear I think you hate me like uh
I need a walk, I need a walk, I need to get out of here
'Cause I need to know
Who are you?
'Cause you're not the girl I fell in love with, baby
Who are you?
'Cause something has changed, you're not the same, I hate it

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:28 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:20 pm
What does the WHO think countries that have large cohorts of people that refuse to vaccinate should be doing, I wonder. Asking for a friend.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 6:01 pm

Meanwhile in the UK we have this shambolic mess. What a weird mixed message he delivers. It still appears that they still have no plan. It's all point decisions.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1414703655958237192

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:05 am

When I see stuff about the UK I shake my head, but then I see this:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/14 ... 4081917958

For those that can't read the embedded screen shot, the UK and Israel are sequencing ~3x the number of new COVID-19 cases compared to the United States to track Delta. It's become quite clear that America was not (and is still not) capable of dealing with a pandemic in any capacity.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:25 am

So I guess we'll start caring again when people with vaccines start having "breakthrough" cases that are really just 'different variant'. Right? We are "choosing" via inaction to be behind the ball.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:11 pm

It's an interesting question. I'm not sure what will drive change at this point. The demographics of illness have been changing (not surprisingly) to a younger cohort. So overall short-term health outcomes are better - the virus isn't killing younger folks and children at the same rate as elders (which we would expect). What it doing for long-term health impacts is anyone's guess - how will a generation of people <30 present with chronic issues associated with exposure? No idea.

Regardless, if the current pattern shifts - if more younger folks start clogging up hospitals (not dying, just in need of hospital care) and/or the next variant turns out to be be more of a problem in younger folks (+ complications; + deaths)... I just don't know. We've demonstrated repeatedly all we want to do is respond; there's little interest anymore in prevention. Same as it ever was.

I can honestly say it feels like a good portion of America - the portion that's vaccinated - has said, "Well, we've done all we can so it's time to move on." We're completely ignoring the immunocompromised and kids - ignoring them in policy and in action. I don't know how to reconcile that and it's been weighing on me.

Add that to the cohort of unvaccinated that don't care about anyone or anything and (to me) it feels like we've reached the logical endpoint for all this - it's now a disease of "others", not Americans.

New cases in NJ are up ~14% from a week ago and 34% from a month ago; Delta is now our dominant strain. News headlines for our state seem to be focused on any number of other things - as if nothing is happening.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:07 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:11 pm I can honestly say it feels like a good portion of America - the portion that's vaccinated - has said, "Well, we've done all we can so it's time to move on." We're completely ignoring the immunocompromised and kids - ignoring them in policy and in action. I don't know how to reconcile that and it's been weighing on me.

Add that to the cohort of unvaccinated that don't care about anyone or anything and (to me) it feels like we've reached the logical endpoint for all this - it's now a disease of "others", not Americans.

I think this is completely right, but it's very literal. I'm not sure what else we can do except keep telling the idiots to get their vaccine. I'm all for any mandates, rewards, subsidies, media blitzes, etc. I'm very worried about a strain that will defeat the vaccines. But haven't we already kind of agreed that some form of COVID booster is likely?

It's not that we're ignoring immunocompromised and kids, but what can you actually do that has a reasonable cost/benefit analysis?

I'm all for good ideas, but I've run out of them.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:13 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:07 pmIt's not that we're ignoring immunocompromised and kids, but what can you actually do that has a reasonable cost/benefit analysis?

One example that we're not going to do (in my neck of the woods, at least) is to continue masking the under-12 crowd when schools open up next month. It's about the clearest no-brainer we could have, and yet we'll fail even in that.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:43 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:07 pm It's not that we're ignoring immunocompromised and kids, but what can you actually do that has a reasonable cost/benefit analysis?

I'm all for good ideas, but I've run out of them.

Yeah, as Zaxxon pointed out, the masking issue is probably the biggest thing wrong and will likely go down as the "mission accomplished" element of this pandemic in America. Telling people that were vaccinated to remove masks made sense (scientifically), but then expecting unvaccinated folks to just continue to wear them was foolish. We've now normalized mask removal and I am having a hard time imagining going back, possibly ever again. Culturally it just doesn't work in America and that's unfortunate. But in terms of doing the bare minimum to protect those that can't be vaccinated? Indoor mask mandates should have remained in place and without a practical/realistic way to verify vaccination status and reliably trust the general public to do the right thing, that means everyone should have continued to wear masks indoors.

The problem is that we knew people were going to resist vaccinating - not hesitate, but actually resist. We also knew that people weren't going to vaccinate their kids - which of all the things, I can actually empathize with in terms of grappling with a decision to do so. Masks were the only practical/easy way to mitigate spread and yet socially/culturally they were (and are) unacceptable to so many - no just adults, but especially the idea that we'd "force" children to wear them.

I guess when pushed, the federal government (and then the states) ultimately decided that they'll just appeal to the better nature of the average American and assume they'll do the right thing. I wish I could have been there when the discussion was happening because I would have firmly been on the other side of the argument pointing out what had just happened over the last 12+ months.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:53 pm

Another day of 300+ new cases in NJ and for the first time since late January, NJ's rate of transmission is above 1 - once again, COVID-19 is spreading in our state.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:58 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:53 pm Another day of 300+ new cases in NJ and for the first time since late January, NJ's rate of transmission is above 1 - once again, COVID-19 is spreading in our state.

Well that means back to the masks for me then. I was avoiding it but locally I've seen an uptick and looks like it's warranted.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:59 pm

I agree with both of you (re: masking), but that's not really something I have any control of. It's certainly not going to keep my kids at home this fall, but then they are over 12 and vaccinated.

If they were under 12, I'm not sure it would change my thinking either.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:16 pm

malchior wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:58 pm Well that means back to the masks for me then. I was avoiding it but locally I've seen an uptick and looks like it's warranted.

If you look at the tracker, it's all the eastern counties, down to Monmouth (which is the highest problem area now). I've suspected we have been above 1 for a few days now, but the state has been holding off on publishing it. How this develops for our state over the next 7 days will be the data to watch. Total hospitalizations have been hovering just above 300 for almost a week now. I'm not expecting them to jump dramatically, but i guess we'll see.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:18 pm

I'm getting increasingly annoyed at all of the "we made it!" messaging that's all over ads these days. They should at least include some of this footage in those ads.

I'm grateful that my 11 YO will be able to get vaccinated in just two weeks (first dose at least). But my son's going to be unprotected for at least a few months, until they expand eligible ages.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:20 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:59 pmIf they were under 12, I'm not sure it would change my thinking either.

My kids will be going back, as well, but they'll be masked regardless of the district's requirements.

/me holds out hope that the under-12 approval comes not very far into the school year.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:21 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:16 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:58 pm Well that means back to the masks for me then. I was avoiding it but locally I've seen an uptick and looks like it's warranted.
If you look at the tracker, it's all the eastern counties, down to Monmouth (which is the highest problem area now). I've suspected we have been above 1 for a few days now, but the state has been holding off on publishing it. How this develops for our state over the next 7 days will be the data to watch. Total hospitalizations have been hovering just above 300 for almost a week now. I'm not expecting them to jump dramatically, but i guess we'll see.

I knew about Monmouth as it was causing roller derby drama. The return to play guidelines are insane and require county by county tracking for all team members. (The sport will not be returning in any appreciable size is my current expectation).

As to the reticence to publish I'll assume this is driven by summer shore fun. Which is fun since we do have a couple of events down there coming up in the next few months. Something to keep an eye on at least.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:28 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:20 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:59 pmIf they were under 12, I'm not sure it would change my thinking either.
My kids will be going back, as well, but they'll be masked regardless of the district's requirements.

/me holds out hope that the under-12 approval comes not very far into the school year.

At this point we're still planning on keeping the oldest (11 years old, high risk) at home for the start of the year. The twins (7) will go to school and wear masks.