Dr. @PeterHotez: "Here's what has to happen, and I know it makes people uncomfortable, but it is the reality: Mask mandates, universal for schools, and vaccine mandates. Every kid over the age of 12 needs to be vaccinated if they're going to attend schools."
Not that he needs validation from me - a random public health drone on the internet - but he's absolutely correct. And because he's absolutely correct - in his recommendation of mandated masks and vaccinations for kids - we're in for a rough ride.
I wish it wasn't going to take legions of kids getting sick, dying, and/or suffering form chronic health conditions but my gut is telling me that's where we're headed.
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:57 pm
I think it needs to be taken for what it is, a possible issue that is currently affecting a very small number of individuals. My first impression was that it was premature and borders on sensationalism.
I can't understand this totally (I get the possible sensationalism). How is premature with the school year upon us, right now? The article does say it "ranges widely" but the bottom end is something like 5-10%. That's potentially not a very small amount of kids when there is no vaccine and the impacts can be devastating. The point I took away is we don't know the true risk but we are being asked to launch children out there and hope it works out. But that is America nowadays.
Studies estimate long Covid may affect between 10 percent and 30 percent of adults infected with the coronavirus. Estimates from the handful of studies of children so far range widely. At an April congressional hearing, Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, cited one study suggesting that between 11 percent and 15 percent of infected youths might “end up with this long-term consequence, which can be pretty devastating in terms of things like school performance.”
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:57 pm
I think it needs to be taken for what it is, a possible issue that is currently affecting a very small number of individuals. My first impression was that it was premature and borders on sensationalism.
I can't understand this totally (I get the possible sensationalism). How is premature with the school year upon us, right now? The article does say it "ranges widely" but the bottom end is something like 5-10%. That's potentially not a very small amount of kids when there is no vaccine and the impacts can be devastating. The point I took away is we don't know the true risk but we are being asked to launch children out there and hope it works out. But that is America nowadays.
Studies estimate long Covid may affect between 10 percent and 30 percent of adults infected with the coronavirus. Estimates from the handful of studies of children so far range widely. At an April congressional hearing, Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, cited one study suggesting that between 11 percent and 15 percent of infected youths might “end up with this long-term consequence, which can be pretty devastating in terms of things like school performance.”
It's premature in that it's 4.4 percent of 1,734 symptomatic kids. So approx 76 kids exhibiting symptoms at 4 weeks. Versus around 1.1% that is standard with other viral infections such as the flu (hate to make that comparison, but there it is). Yes, we can extrapolate out to a doomsday scenario but let see if mitigations help.
Things like banning masks from schools are criminal and are going to have terrible outcomes but let's not consign all kids to COVID just yet. Even if it's just a scare tactic.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 3:25 pmIt's premature in that it's 4.4 percent of 1,734 symptomatic kids. So approx 76 kids exhibiting symptoms at 4 weeks. Versus around 1.1% that is standard with other viral infections such as the flu (hate to make that comparison, but there it is). Yes, we can extrapolate out to a doomsday scenario but let see if mitigations help.
That's not a insignificant sample size. Let's say "only" 4% of even limited populations of children end up with long covid of indeterminate length that is a huge impact. I don't think it is premature to warn people that more kids than people might realize may get 'long covid' or whatever syndrome name they'll eventually assign to it. We don't know how many or how bad but there is a real risk. I don't see any reason that information shouldn't be in people's hands to make their choices even if its dressed up a bit in some (probably unintentional) sensationalism.
Things like banning masks from schools are criminal and are going to have terrible outcomes but let's not consign all kids to COVID just yet. Even if it's just a scare tactic.
Right that is where I get the sensationalism argument.
No problem with the data and conjecture, just the means it was delivered. Remember, this is as much a PR battle as a health battle.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 3:34 pm
No problem with the data and conjecture, just the means it was delivered. Remember, this is as much a PR battle as a health battle.
It absolutely is, and once again public health is on the side of extrapolation - trying to convince people of the possible paths using what we know about Delta and how it's spreading in the unvaccinated. On the other side are the troglodytes that are using 2020 data and representing a different reality of what to expect, added to the charlatans quoting studies about masking children.
For whatever reason, it's going to take PICUs from all over the U.S. being completely overrun before people think, hmm..maybe this wasn't such a great idea. It's going to take 5+ years before we start to get a handle on all the adults dealing with the chronic issues associated with COVID. Just as long or longer for the kids.
But today? Today it's not a problem. Haven't you heard? COVID doesn't affect kids.
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:07 am
I don't even know how to respond to what Rand Paul has said. Both in substance and that he would actually say it.
I think his neighbor understood the proper response.
They can’t arrest all of us, right?
What an asinine justification for bad behavior.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:07 am
I don't even know how to respond to what Rand Paul has said. Both in substance and that he would actually say it.
I think his neighbor understood the proper response.
They can’t arrest all of us, right?
What an asinine justification for bad behavior.
Yeah, I'm used to the inane COVID denial stuff, but encouraging direct lawlessness as a sitting senator is extra disgusting.
We're a nation with a persistent minority of fuckwits who have a stranglehold over our idiotic political system. Where is the profit of this supposed power grab? Do people think anyone wants to live this way? We don't want to see our friends and families? We want economic struggles and society wide disruptions? What does someone like Fauci get out of this? There is no scenario where any of that Federalist fever dream makes any sort of sense. You can unravel most of this with 10 seconds of critical thinking. Yet here we are 18 months into this having the same damn discussions.
That article might be from 2015, but the whole militant anti-vax movement in America really kicked into high gear around 2010.
If you want to get depressed, watch this PBS documentary, the Vaccine War; it's been updated 2x in the last decade and I'm hoping they do another update soon. You might even recognize some familiar faces...
Also, here's DeSantis quadrupling (?) down on things:
There are a couple of things I can see in this DeSantis madness.
Remember when we had a discussion about how this seemed like bad politics for the Republicans? I can't help but notice these morons don't care about any of these impacts. It is not hard to justify labeling the GOP and its base as a suicide cult. There seems to be no contemporaneous cost. Maybe that's an illusion but it doesn't help the situation.
On the other hand, DeSantis is looking desperate here. People are challenging his power and he is running out of cards to play. It is interesting in its own way to see what the depths he will go to in his bullying and whether that will actually turn into (non)-action. That said, he is an abject horror. That this type of cynical, evil man has authority over a state is not great.
The idea that anyone would want him within 500' of the White House is even more terrifying. I cannot even imagine what someone with this temperament might do. It would be like Trump+, no doubt.
They are cornered rats, that know they are on the wrong side of history, that know they are the minority, and know that their days are numbered if elections stay free and fair. And they are willing to do anything and everything to avoid that scenario. They are trapped honey badgers, and they have long since run out of fucks to give.
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 3:25 pmIt's premature in that it's 4.4 percent of 1,734 symptomatic kids. So approx 76 kids exhibiting symptoms at 4 weeks. Versus around 1.1% that is standard with other viral infections such as the flu (hate to make that comparison, but there it is). Yes, we can extrapolate out to a doomsday scenario but let see if mitigations help.
That's not a insignificant sample size. Let's say "only" 4% of even limited populations of children end up with long covid of indeterminate length that is a huge impact. I don't think it is premature to warn people that more kids than people might realize may get 'long covid' or whatever syndrome name they'll eventually assign to it. We don't know how many or how bad but there is a real risk. I don't see any reason that information shouldn't be in people's hands to make their choices even if its dressed up a bit in some (probably unintentional) sensationalism.
Things like banning masks from schools are criminal and are going to have terrible outcomes but let's not consign all kids to COVID just yet. Even if it's just a scare tactic.
Right that is where I get the sensationalism argument.
When the other side is spreading sensational fake or misleading info to support anti vax and anti mask argument, you probably need to use sensational fact to counter that.
Smoove_B wrote:I was looking at the data earlier and FL is at 83% hospital bed capacity and 89% ICU capacity - the whole damn state. School starts tomorrow.
We should be sending in Doctors Without Borders to rescue people.
Yeah, it’s tough to be hopeful of the future as a Floridian.
On the plus side, the NOAA sea level rise map shows that the promised 2m rise in sea levels will put the river right on the other side of the street from my house. Riverfront property baby!
My staunch anti-vaxer, anti-mask, “COVID is a hoax” cousin who is currently in the ICU has two daughters, 19 and 17.
Found out earlier tonight that even though their dad has spent two weeks in the ICU, is on a ventilator, has a blood clot in his lung, and has been given only a 50/50 chance to survive (not to mention his long-term prognosis), his two daughters still refuse to get vaccinated. They don’t believe the doctors and think it must be “something other than COVID” killing their dad.
Three of my other cousins on that side (his brothers) also remain unvaccinated. They’re “just not sure” that the vaccines are safe…while their younger brother lies dying from COVID.
The level of delusion, cognitive dissonance, and denial is absolutely staggering. If one of their own being on death’s door doesn’t convince them, I can’t begin to imagine anything that possibly could.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
Blackhawk wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:30 am
Once you make the decision that reality and facts don't matter, it's easy to just keep coming up with reasons for whatever you want to be true.
You only have to make that break with reality once.
Exactly. Once you buy one Big Lie, all the others start making more sense.
Yep. You don't need to make the decision to delude yourself each and every time something comes up if you simply choose to delude yourself on the overarching concepts that affect everything. Some good overarching concepts that have become popular: "Science is misleading." "The party (or party member's) words are always true." "It's God's will." "If [other party] wants it, it's bad and needs to be fought." Accept any of those things and thousands of potentially tough issues are decided for you.
It's like saying "I didn't burn down hundreds of homes. I only burned down one thing - a town."
There's still some murk regarding the state constitution and Desantis' order may have no force of law. Either way, sounds like these chiefs are doing what they feel is right now and will let the courts sort out salaries and funding later.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:18 am
We just can't, in this country.
My best guess - and it's truly only that - is that there was a belief at the CDC that COVID-19 was going to surge again in October-ish of this year, not July. It's almost like they weren't watching what happened elsewhere and/or not listening to experts and academics from around the U.S. saying that Delta was going to rip through America much sooner, particularly after the CDC revised masking guidelines in May.
I'm really at a loss to explain what's happening at the CDC. Cynical me is still thinking decisions about the economy and keeping everything open and chugging forward is driving the tone.
Here in Arkansas a judge blocked the state no mask law. So schools and towns are initiating their own mandatory laws. Everyone is waiting to see how the appeal is going.
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:47 am
I'm really at a loss to explain what's happening at the CDC. Cynical me is still thinking decisions about the economy and keeping everything open and chugging forward is driving the tone.
FWIW the CDC does not come off well in Michael Lewis's pandemic book. IIRC most of the criticism is sourced through local health officials that Lewis spoke with. But the core of it is that the CDC isn't so much focused on disease prevention (because the CDC brass generally lacks the stones to make politically difficult / consequential decisions *before* disease explodes) as it is on disease diagnosis and reporting (writing a comprehensive report on why the disease exploded after it has already exploded). And that they're focused heavily on protecting their turf over, again, preventing disease.
I don't know what the counter-argument is, but FYI.
I have that book on my wishlist and heard similar things; I am not sure I'm ready to read it yet.
From what you've stated, I think that's a fair assessment. There have been much smaller-scale events (like H1N1) that required a quick response, but the stakes were lower and the broad impact was minimal.
That's why I have a bit of a hard time trying to be ultra critical (though it's probably necessary) - they've never been tasked with responding in real-time to anything on this scale. Maybe if this happened in 1960 it would have been different, but after 70+ years of politics in America culminating in the election of Trump in 2016 (and all the associated sentiment that led to and followed his election), this was going to be a mess no matter what.
But yes, public health - actual boots on the ground public health - is local. The CDC has always helped support locals, but in terms of front-line, leading the charge during some type of national disease event? Not in our lifetimes.
It does suggest change is needed, but I don't know how - public health is a state issue. Where things are getting weird is looking at what's happening in TX and FL right now. Their decisions are impacting everyone in America and I don't know how anyone could argue otherwise. At what point do their actions become a national security issue? The argument that the federal government should have a more powerful role in domestic public health has been made stronger based on what's happened over the last ~18 months. I just don't know how it could happen in a practical sense.
I will try to bump the book up on my list...i just don't know if I have the mental bandwidth for it.
Has anyone checked to see if he is a lizard wearing human skin? I dont understand the mentality of someone actually trying their best to have people hurt sick and die.
Its a real shame him and people like him dont get it and die.
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
Also on H1N1 the book essentially says that the CDC and the government didn't respond well to that pandemic, but rather we essentially just got lucky because the virus turned out not to be all that lethal.
And re: state and local responses, this is where it ties into the ongoing breakdown in American political institutions. Because the GOP has eroded democratic accountability in so many states via gerrymandering and voter suppression and the like that a lot of state governments are mainly accountable to the Fox News base and minimally to the general electorate, which skews the disease responses. I think no matter what your political institutions are it's going to be almost impossible to avoid having some crazy and/or corrupt people in positions of influence when a pandemic hits, but the decline in our institutions makes that sort of thing way more widespread.
The Oregon Health Authority reported Monday that 10 of the 55 Oregonians who died from COVID-19 in July were fully vaccinated.
The report corrected information previously issued by the agency, which originally reported that only five fully vaccinated Oregonians died from COVID-19 last month.
Health officials said that epidemiologists found that five deaths among fully vaccinated people had incorrectly been counted as deaths of unvaccinated individuals. The new data means that 18% of the state’s COVID-19 deaths in July were among fully vaccinated people.
Should that ratio be writ large (which doesn't seem to be the case so far), it'd be hugely concerning.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
