Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

I can't really comment on all that other stuff, but one of the features of our current pandemic that is unique is the speed and scope of spread. Pandemics by definition are global. However, the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 zipped around the globe is unprecedented in terms of the emergence of a new disease. Our global "connectedness" means that what happened in India earlier this year is impacting us here in America now. And whatever is cooking up in the millions of people across America right now that are getting Delta is now potentially cooking up something else that is going to move somewhere else on our globe soon enough.

Until the O.G. "modern" pandemic of 1918, diseases just didn't have the ability to spread so quickly and so completely.

And so you now have a disease that is able to move faster than our global society - the processes that govern how we operate, interact, trade, etc...

So yeah, in terms of scope it's unprecedented and overwhelming.

[Little Raven]

Nothing we can do about so why worry about it, amirite? I get it.

You don't, and that's no doubt deliberate. Fate is not fixed, and we know less than we sometimes think.

As the Sufi once said: The future is uncertain and the end is always near. So it is, and so it has ever been. But it is not here yet, and we are not powerless in the meantime.

[Kurth]

There is no playbook for this or any analogue in history to point to.

The Bronze Age Collapse says hi.

Civilizations have collapsed before - many times, actually. Climate has changed, populations have migrated, and at no point in human history were people any dumber than they are now. Lots of them could see what was coming with perfect clarity - they just couldn't stop it. And sure, maybe the same thing will happen to us - but it hasn't happened yet.

Yeah, totally understand the call for perspective and the recency bias. But, I don’t get your take that people have always been able to see what’s coming with perfect clarity. We are blessed/cursed with SO much more information today than we ever have been in the past. I don’t think you can argue that people in prior times were as aware of world events — or even local events — as we are now.

[Little Raven]

But, I don’t get your take that people have always been able to see what’s coming with perfect clarity.

They weren't - and neither are we. As you recently noted, we're busy twisting our own vision so much that even as we drown in data we struggle in knowledge. But things like the bronze age collapse did not happen overnight. Civilizations that depended on tin imported from thousands of miles away could see those trade routes collapsing decades out. We can still read some of the letters they sent, warning of disaster. Generations grew up knowing with absolute certainty that the world they knew would not last through their children's lifetimes, and they also knew that what would come after would be horrible beyond imagining. And they were right. A sophisticated urban civilization with scholars, art, poetry, craftmanship, travel, huge palaces, mighty temples, stable governments...all destroyed so completely with a few decades that even writing would disappear for centuries.

And that's only one example. When the Mongols came rampaging out of the East, for example...they didn't just magically appear on the horizon one day. People knew they were coming. Often times they knew years in advance. And they knew exactly what the Mongols were going to do once they arrived. (hint: Literal mountains of skulls were not outside the realm of possibility.) But there was nothing they could do about it.

Humanity (and indeed, life on this planet generally) is no stranger to catastrophe. Each generation gets its own horror, and while I don't mean to diminish ours, I suspect most would be happy to trade with us.

[Blackhawk]

Another point (in what is a complex discussion that will never be boiled down to a single, simple answer of the sort we seem to expect): Societies have changed, civilization (parts of it) has collapsed, and the climate has changed.

But rarely has it happened so quickly, widely, and dramatically. I'm 50. I'm of an age where I can both remember a time when these things were barely a thought, and yet can foresee a time when some of them are possible (or even likely?) The Roman Empire took centuries to collapse. The last ice age began and ended over a period of thousands of years. We're looking at an array of massive changes within a single lifetime.

But here's the thing: If someone hasn't eaten in days, you don't point out that there's someone somewhere else who hasn't eaten in weeks. Their suffering doesn't diminish because somebody has suffered more. We're living through a painful, terrifying, stressful, ugly time. Yeah, people have had it a lot worse. That doesn't mean it isn't a painful, terrifying, stressful, ugly time. And it doesn't mean that we're somehow wrong to express misery.

And from an individual's perspective, it is the worst time. Reading about the suffering in India 75 years ago might evoke sympathy, but it's not the same as looking at your own grandchildren and being terrified for them because you can see the threat lurking around the corner.

[Kraken]

As the Sufi once said: The future is uncertain and the end is always near. So it is, and so it has ever been. But it is not here yet, and we are not powerless in the meantime.

He sounds wise.

Facing multiple simultaneous global crises is something new. We've had world wars (rising authoritarianism), at least one global pandemic (1918 influenza), and one planetary environmental crisis (ozone depletion) before. WWI and the "Spanish" flu even overlapped. But for most of human history, global civilization wasn't threatened because it didn't exist. The Roman Empire could fall without plunging China into a dark age. The existential emergencies confronting us now will require an unprecedented level of cooperation, and that's something we're really not good at, even within our own country. Things do look bleak all over and there are not a lot of hopeful trends.

Which is not to say that there aren't any. For one example, Commonwealth Fusion Systems and MIT expect to fire up a practical tokamak fusion reactor (called SPARC) in 2024, and CFS means to make the ARC design commercially available as early as 2030. These are realistic target dates. Carbon sequestration techniques are maturing and would be greatly advanced with plentiful clean energy. We're still very good at inventing solutions to technical problems and staving off those types of disaster.

What we're not good at is solving social problems. I find it hard to see past the US political crisis into global cooperation. Maybe we'll still find a way to pull together as a democracy. I just can't see how that happens while we are still trending in the opposite direction.

[Blackhawk]

Most of the Roman Empire didn't even notice when it fell. It wasn't here today, gone tomorrow. It was a slow decline with a few big events. The citizens and subjects mostly saw the differences in grandpa's stories.

[Kraken]

Yeah, it was more of a withering away punctuated by some prominent barbarian raids in the western Empire. The east went on much longer. The fall of the Roman Empire is a convenient shorthand; I meant that Europe's decline didn't infect Asia, and the Mayans had no idea that either existed.

[Zaxxon]

Most of the Roman Empire didn't even notice when it fell. It wasn't here today, gone tomorrow. It was a slow decline with a few big events. The citizens and subjects mostly saw the differences in grandpa's stories.

Most of America didn't notice, either.

[Blackhawk]

But for those of us who have, it has felt sudden and shocking. Hindsight and all, but the speed at which it went from subtle warnings to in your face left a lot of people with their heads spinning.

Having it happen during a pandemic while we realize that the environment is near doomed is, as I said, a unique historical experience.

[Zaxxon]

I would argue that it happened years before the pandemic.

[malchior]

I would argue that it happened years before the pandemic.

Indeed. As many, many scientists and experts hanging off alarm bells in multiple disciplines could attest to.

[Blackhawk]

I would argue that it happened years before the pandemic.

Hindsight and all,

I don't know whether you're referring to the state of the nation or the environment (as it's true for both), but prior the to last few years it was background noise. It was something that we (as in the "don't study politics full time" we) knew could happen, not something that felt like it was actively happening until the Trump era (the government), or it was something that we saw on the horizon, not out the side window (the environment.) Yeah, I've believed that the environment was the #1 issue and the #1 threat for years now, but it has accelerated, and things we were warned our kids would deal with are here, now.

So, no. They didn't all happen at once. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that it all came to a head at once. Regardless, all of the shit is hitting the fan simultaneously, and I can't blame people for feeling like things are at their worst.

[Zaxxon]

I'm referring solely to the American version of this:

Most of the Roman Empire didn't even notice when it fell. It wasn't here today, gone tomorrow. It was a slow decline with a few big events.

America fell well before the Pandemic. Some would argue it was with the election of Trump, but it was clear to many of us here well before that. The fact that Trump was ever a serious candidate, or perhaps the tan suit/birtherism stuff, or the Tea Party. Or our reaction to mass shootings, literally unwilling to protect our children (sound familiar?) You could argue way back with Gingrich. And many other possibilities.

All I'm suggesting is that the Roman analogy is pretty accurate for America, too. Hell, most of America still thinks we're doing fine and can recover from the present state of things. Major obliviousness--we're toast, and we're not coming back until we fall much further.

[Blackhawk]

I don't disagree. I'd actually put the cracks in the foundation being ignored back into the Reagan Era or before myself.

But even for those who are moderately informed it seemed more like 'politics as usual' than an active attempt to overthrow the government from within. It didn't really click for me until the end of the Obama administration that something was seriously wrong, and didn't seem immediate until the rest of the GOP chose to back Trump rather than countering him.

[LordMortis]

the Tea Party.

I don't know that we have "fallen" but if there was a tipping point that pushed us on a trajectory that the Civil War couldn't accomplish then it was when Sarah Palin became an asset for becoming the president.

Can we bounce back toward normalcy? That will depend on us, China, Russia, Afghanistan and the Middle East, the pandemic, global warming, and pollution in general. Given our collective response to the 8 phenomena, I'm inclined to doubt it but that doesn't mean we don't keep on trying.

[malchior]

the Tea Party.

I don't know that we have "fallen" but if there was a tipping point that pushed us on a trajectory that the Civil War couldn't accomplish then it was when Sarah Palin became an asset for becoming the president.

Can we bounce back toward normalcy?

We're fallen. There is no question of that. If there is anything the last 5 years in particular have shown it is that the United States as we imagined it was a mirage. We can argue and haggle over time frames but we've got a mountain of evidence that indicates we're declining quickly.

That will depend on us, China, Russia, Afghanistan and the Middle East, the pandemic, global warming, and pollution in general. Given our collective response to the 8 phenomena, I'm inclined to doubt it but that doesn't mean we don't keep on trying.

I agree but we have to be realistic. We can't even scratch at solving one of those issues or even easier ones. We're incapable and it is time to recognize it. At least then we can figure out how to pick up the pieces. My first suggestion? Let's start by dumping baby boomer/silent generation lifetime politicians who will seemingly die at their posts instead of facing up to the fact that they have been absolute disasters for the United States. Their time has long, long deserved to be in the past.

[Skinypupy]

Just got word that after 14 days on a ventilator in the ICU, my cousin passed away this morning. 49 years old, no major comorbidities, but was unvaccinated.

RIP Scott.

[LordMortis]

So sorry. Your situation terrifies me.

[Isgrimnur]

I'm sorry for your family's loss.

[Zaxxon]

Condolences.

[malchior]

So sorry - hopefully there will be some positive and it convinces other people to act.

[TheMix]

Sorry to hear that. Maybe it will change the minds of those around him. Didn't you say his daughters were also refusing to get vaccinated?

[Sudy]

So sorry for you and your family Skinypupy.

[Skinypupy]

Didn't you say his daughters were also refusing to get vaccinated?

Yep. As of last weekend (after he'd been in the hospital for 12 days) both his daughters - 19 and 17 - still refused to get vaccinated. They also both think that "something else" killed him and that the doctors were lying. It's incredibly sad.

I've now lost a cousin and an uncle to COVID, both of whom were in perfectly good health prior to being infected. I’ll admit it makes me irrationally angry and I have the overwhelming desire to punch every one of these anti-vax chucklefucks who are yelling at health care workers and school board members.

[El Guapo]

Didn't you say his daughters were also refusing to get vaccinated?

Yep. As of last weekend (after he'd been in the hospital for 12 days) both his daughters - 19 and 17 - still refused to get vaccinated. They also both think that "something else" killed him and that the doctors were lying. It's incredibly sad.

I've now lost a cousin and an uncle to COVID, both of whom were in perfectly good health prior to being infected. I’ll admit it makes me irrationally angry and I have the overwhelming desire to punch every one of these anti-vax chucklefucks who are yelling at health care workers and school board members.

Have they ever explained why the doctors would lie about what was killing him?

Also, did they try to get different doctors to look at him? That would be the logical thing if you felt that your dad's current doctors were lying to them.

[Skinypupy]

Didn't you say his daughters were also refusing to get vaccinated?

Yep. As of last weekend (after he'd been in the hospital for 12 days) both his daughters - 19 and 17 - still refused to get vaccinated. They also both think that "something else" killed him and that the doctors were lying. It's incredibly sad.

I've now lost a cousin and an uncle to COVID, both of whom were in perfectly good health prior to being infected. I’ll admit it makes me irrationally angry and I have the overwhelming desire to punch every one of these anti-vax chucklefucks who are yelling at health care workers and school board members.

Have they ever explained why the doctors would lie about what was killing him?

Also, did they try to get different doctors to look at him? That would be the logical thing if you felt that your dad's current doctors were lying to them.

They're deep into the "COVID is a hoax to make hospitals money" conspiracy theory. Even though there was a team of multiple doctors telling the family the exact same thing throughout his ICU stay, the girls still wouldn't believe them.

I think lots of it is basic denial (the younger one wouldn't even go to the hospital to see him), mixed with with a healthy dose of anti-vax/anti-mask brainwashing, and topped off with a lifetime of 24-7 Fox News whargarbl in their household.

[El Guapo]

Didn't you say his daughters were also refusing to get vaccinated?

Yep. As of last weekend (after he'd been in the hospital for 12 days) both his daughters - 19 and 17 - still refused to get vaccinated. They also both think that "something else" killed him and that the doctors were lying. It's incredibly sad.

I've now lost a cousin and an uncle to COVID, both of whom were in perfectly good health prior to being infected. I’ll admit it makes me irrationally angry and I have the overwhelming desire to punch every one of these anti-vax chucklefucks who are yelling at health care workers and school board members.

Have they ever explained why the doctors would lie about what was killing him?

Also, did they try to get different doctors to look at him? That would be the logical thing if you felt that your dad's current doctors were lying to them.

They're deep into the "COVID is a hoax to make hospitals money" conspiracy theory. Even though there was a team of multiple doctors telling the family the exact same thing throughout his ICU stay, the girls still wouldn't believe them.

I think lots of it is basic denial (the younger one wouldn't even go to the hospital to see him), mixed with with a healthy dose of anti-vax/anti-mask brainwashing, and topped off with a lifetime of 24-7 Fox News whargarbl in their household.

Wouldn't there have to be some "good" doctors? At least some MAGA doctors that they could take him too?

I know I'm looking for logic where there is none, but I at least want some internal consistency.

[Zaxxon]

Wouldn't there have to be some "good" doctors? At least some MAGA doctors that they could take him too?

I know I'm looking for logic where there is none, but I at least want some internal consistency.

Or, you know, hospitals would need COVID to be a money-maker rather than a net drain on income.

[Alefroth]

Just got word that after 14 days on a ventilator in the ICU, my cousin passed away this morning. 49 years old, no major comorbidities, but was unvaccinated.

RIP Scott.

Damn. So sorry.

[Kraken]

Condolences. I must admit to being fascinated by that level of brainwashing. I think you can say that literally nothing will change their minds, if losing their father didn't do it.

[YellowKing]

Yeah our hospital lost millions of dollars in 2020. And we were one of the ones in very good financial shape heading into the pandemic.

Having to cancel hundreds of non-critical surgeries, outpatient procedures, etc. is the worst money-making plan I've ever heard of.

[Trent Steel]

Just got word that after 14 days on a ventilator in the ICU, my cousin passed away this morning. 49 years old, no major comorbidities, but was unvaccinated.

RIP Scott.

Very sorry SP.

[Pyperkub]

Condolences. I must admit to being fascinated by that level of brainwashing. I think you can say that literally nothing will change their minds, if losing their father didn't do it.

If you don't trust your doctor to give you decent medical advice, you've got some significant issues.

[hitbyambulance]

Condolences. I must admit to being fascinated by that level of brainwashing. I think you can say that literally nothing will change their minds, if losing their father didn't do it.

If you don't trust your doctor to give you decent medical advice, you've got some significant issues.

the proof is if they don't take the hospital to court for 'lying' to them. because the courts would be lying to them as well! the conspiracy runs broad and deep!

(has any covid-19 denier actually done this? i suspect not. which leads me to believe that on some very, very remote level, the denialists know that they're not right)

[Hipolito]

I'm sorry, Skinypupy.

I've lost seven relatives (that I know of; word does not always reach me) to COVID. They lived in a Third World country where vaccines were not widely available.

I wonder if Americans will ever realize how deranged it is to not get vaccinated. The vaccines are right there, RIGHT THERE FOR THE TAKING! While people in Third World countries scramble desperately to get the few vaccines that the First World hasn't hoarded.

Maybe living in the First World makes people mentally weak since daily life is so comfortable and unchallenging. They don't have to deal with how harsh reality can be, so they become addled.

[Smoove_B]

Condolences. I must admit to being fascinated by that level of brainwashing. I think you can say that literally nothing will change their minds, if losing their father didn't do it.

If you don't trust your doctor to give you decent medical advice, you've got some significant issues.

They trust them for everything else - broken arm, stomach pain, back ache. But this new virus? Nope.

I'm so sorry to read about your cousin SP. I wish I could say yours was the first story I'd ever heard that was similar. Just endless tragedies and families forever changed.

[msteelers]

Maybe living in the First World makes people mentally weak since daily life is so comfortable and unchallenging. They don't have to deal with how harsh reality can be, so they become addled.

I don’t think there’s any maybe about it unfortunately.

[malchior]

In it's too absurd to be true, my wife just called me. One of the women at work just confided to someone that her kid has COVID, she found out over the weekend, and CAME TO WORK without getting a test. And their HR is pretty much shrugging. At least send her home and get a fucking test. WTF is wrong with everyone. I'm so sick of selfish assholes but also the sociopathic bosses who give zero shits about their workers.

[Octavious]

Does she work at my office? My wife's work called her today and said the lady that works next to her tested positive and she has to be get a test before she comes back. We all have the vaccine so I'm it exactly worried but it's a pita.