Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Octavious]

I had to read it five times to see what you meant. That's great

[raydude]

Meanwhile Texas has a new execute order banning vaccine mandates. They really are going out of their way to kill people.

Typo or Freudian slip?

I don't doubt that at some point this fall the health care systems in Texas and Florida will collapse and you'll see reports of doctors being forced to triage Covid cases. Thus leading to a higher death toll as folks who could have been saved die from lack of care. There has got to be some tipping point of deaths per capita which even their governors cannot ignore.

[Octavious]

I don't know anymore. They will just pretend it's not happening and rally around each other. They are all fn insane.

[msteelers]

I don’t remember which thread it was in, but I mentioned my parents had gone to Sturgis.

My mom just called and said she is sick with COVID.

They got back into town on Thursday and invited us over for dinner on Sunday. We passed. I guess she started to feel bad Monday night and got worse throughout the day Tuesday. My step-father is battling lung cancer, so that makes this extra horrible.

Ugh. At least everyone is vaccinated. But mom is sick enough that the doctors want to do antibody treatment. I asked if that was the regeneron treatment Desantis has been pushing and she wasn’t sure.

Cool. Coolcoolcool.

[LawBeefaroni]

I don’t remember which thread it was in, but I mentioned my parents had gone to Sturgis.

My mom just called and said she is sick with COVID.

They got back into town on Thursday and invited us over for dinner on Sunday. We passed. I guess she started to feel bad Monday night and got worse throughout the day Tuesday. My step-father is battling lung cancer, so that makes this extra horrible.

Ugh. At least everyone is vaccinated. But mom is sick enough that the doctors want to do antibody treatment. I asked if that was the regeneron treatment Desantis has been pushing and she wasn’t sure.

Cool. Coolcoolcool.

Antibody treatment is probably the Regeneron monoclonal antibody treatment and yes, that's what Desantis and Abbott are pushing. It works but it is the proverbial pound of cure rather than the ounce prevention that they have outlawed. One wonders what kind financial or blackmail interest is involved here.


Maybe ask Ken Griffin?

[msteelers]

Apparently they are going to come out and treat my mom at her house. I guess they don't want any more images of people lying on the floor waiting for treatment.

They are also going to treat my step-father since he is high risk and has been exposed.

[Smoove_B]

I'm so sorry to hear that. Who's paying for the home visit and treatments, if I can be so bold as to ask.

[msteelers]

I'm so sorry to hear that. Who's paying for the home visit and treatments, if I can be so bold as to ask.

I’m not sure. According to the FL Dept of Health MAB treatments are free. I’m not sure how the in home treatment changes things.

[Smoove_B]

I did some digging - money is coming from the feds.

On Jan. 12, the federal government purchased 1.25 million doses of the antibody cocktail from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., bringing its stockpile to more than 1.5 million doses.

That deal, signed just days before former President Donald Trump left office, was valued at $2.625 billion or about $2,100 a dose, government purchasing records show. Trump received Regeneron’s antibody treatment when he was hospitalized with COVID-19 in October.

[LawBeefaroni]

Hey, remember Tamiflu?

[Skinypupy]

Brother (vaccinated) and his three youngest (8 and twins who turned 12 on Monday) all tested positive yesterday. So far, just mild flu-like symptoms. Really hoping it stays that way.

[El Guapo]

Brother (vaccinated) and his three youngest (8 and twins who turned 12 on Monday) all tested positive yesterday. So far, just mild flu-like symptoms. Really hoping it stays that way.

Oof. Any guesses as to how / where they got it?

[Daehawk]

“Inescapable” COVID-19 Antibody Discovery – Neutralizes All Known SARS-CoV-2 Strains

Sotrovimab, the newest antibody therapy, was developed by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology after a large collaborative study by scientists from across the nation discovered a natural antibody (in the blood of a SARS survivor, back in 2003) that has remarkable breadth and efficacy.

Experiments showed that this antibody, called S309, neutralizes all known SARS-CoV-2 strains – including newly emerged mutants that can now “escape” from previous antibody therapies – as well as the closely related original SARS-CoV virus.

[Skinypupy]

Brother (vaccinated) and his three youngest (8 and twins who turned 12 on Monday) all tested positive yesterday. So far, just mild flu-like symptoms. Really hoping it stays that way.

Oof. Any guesses as to how / where they got it?

Not sure. He works in a hospital and the kids have been in school for a couple weeks (in Tennessee), so it's likely to be one or the other.

His twins had been counting down the days until they turned 12 and could get vaccinated. They'll now have to wait 10 weeks before getting a vaccination shot.

[Freyland]

“Inescapable” COVID-19 Antibody Discovery – Neutralizes All Known SARS-CoV-2 Strains

Sotrovimab, the newest antibody therapy, was developed by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology after a large collaborative study by scientists from across the nation discovered a natural antibody (in the blood of a SARS survivor, back in 2003) that has remarkable breadth and efficacy.

Experiments showed that this antibody, called S309, neutralizes all known SARS-CoV-2 strains – including newly emerged mutants that can now “escape” from previous antibody therapies – as well as the closely related original SARS-CoV virus.

How many shares did DeSantis pick up?

[Smoove_B]

It's not often I get to post Indiana news...

https://twitter.com/BrockEWTurner/statu ... 3808095234

BREAKING: As COVID-19 cases across Indiana surge, IU Health--the state's largest health system--will suspend half of all elective procedures beginning Monday.

Stay safe Blackhawk clan.

[Blackhawk]

Stay safe Blackhawk clan.

Unlikely. I certainly hope we don't get it, but that doesn't seem reasonable with one kid in a non-precaution school and Michelle working in a hospital. I'm still going through the motions, but my real hope is in two things: 1 - Delay getting it as long as possible, hopefully until after the surge dies down, and because treatments improve over time. 2 - Hope we get lucky and just get the sniffles and not a permanent condition (which includes death.)

[Daehawk]

Ya death is hard to treat.

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1431059082409086981

NEW: U.S. reporting more than 1,200 coronavirus deaths a day on average, highest since March

[Isgrimnur]

633k total deaths in the US. It's going to take forever to break a million unless we kick open the doors!

[Kraken]

633k total deaths in the US. It's going to take forever to break a million unless we kick open the doors!

Be patient. School is just starting, and soon we'll have holidays.

[stessier]

633k total deaths in the US. It's going to take forever to break a million unless we kick open the doors!

Be patient. School is just starting, and soon we'll have holidays.

Silly Northerner - school has been in session for nearly a month.

[Smoove_B]

Stay safe southern-state Gulf Coast OOers

https://twitter.com/ErinBanco/status/14 ... 9778298880

Already hearing from health officials in Louisiana that they aren't sure what they are going to do if people are injured from the storm and come in seeking a bed at the hospital.

There aren't many beds left.

[Smoove_B]

Let's remember this as the usual suspects are whipped into a frenzy over how terrible Biden is for letting soldiers die in Afghanistan. To be clear, it's a mess over there, but JFC this just happened in Texas:

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status ... 0989523971

U.S. Army veteran Daniel Wilkinson, of Texas, died of a treatable illness because the Covid crisis left him without an available ICU bed even though he lives 3 houses down from an emergency room and 60 miles away from some of the greatest healthcare facilities in the world.

[Smoove_B]

From last night:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1431443250716479488

U.S. COVID update: Biggest one-day increase in cases since January, 1,800 new deaths

- New cases: 192,083
- Average: 158,690 (+1,435)
- In hospital: 101,319 (-26)
- In ICU: 25,627 (+117)
- New deaths: 1,803

It's like the vaccine doesn't exist. I feel like I'm living in a different reality.

[malchior]

It's like the vaccine doesn't exist. I feel like I'm living in a different reality.

Luckily it does or this would be way, way worse. Not much comfort I know but it is something.

[Max Peck]

It's like the vaccine doesn't exist. I feel like I'm living in a different reality.

There pretty much are two realities at this point, with a fuzzy overlapping boundary where the world of the unvaccinated affects the world of the vaccinated, and vice versa to a degree. Oddly, the denizens of both the pro-vaccine and anti-vaccine realms believe that the other is the Upside Down.

[Isgrimnur]

[Jaymon]

Two mostly rural Oregon counties request refrigeration trucks to hold bodies.

The death toll from COVID-19 in Oregon is climbing so rapidly that two counties have requested refrigerated trucks to hold the bodies, the state emergency management department said Saturday.
....
Josephine County Emergency Manager Emily Ring asked the state on Tuesday for a refrigerated trailer that could hold “20-48 cadavers.”

She wrote that the county hospital is daily exceeding its body storage capacity and that the five funeral homes and three crematoriums are “at the edge of crisis capacity daily.”

“Trailer must have hoists for body lifts and shelves,” she said in her urgent request form.

[Kurth]

Two mostly rural Oregon counties request refrigeration trucks to hold bodies.

The death toll from COVID-19 in Oregon is climbing so rapidly that two counties have requested refrigerated trucks to hold the bodies, the state emergency management department said Saturday.
....
Josephine County Emergency Manager Emily Ring asked the state on Tuesday for a refrigerated trailer that could hold “20-48 cadavers.”

She wrote that the county hospital is daily exceeding its body storage capacity and that the five funeral homes and three crematoriums are “at the edge of crisis capacity daily.”

“Trailer must have hoists for body lifts and shelves,” she said in her urgent request form.

Can someone try to explain to me why OR is in such bad shape? Our vaccination rates are pretty solid relative to other states. We’ve got tons of space out here. After the really bad heat dome earlier this summer, the weather has been temperate leading to lots of people outdoors rather than inside. And we have a governor who’s been quick to implement COVID-related rules (we’ve got a freaking OUTDOOR mask mandate, FFS).

Why are we not doing better at COVID?

[LawBeefaroni]

Two mostly rural Oregon counties request refrigeration trucks to hold bodies.

The death toll from COVID-19 in Oregon is climbing so rapidly that two counties have requested refrigerated trucks to hold the bodies, the state emergency management department said Saturday.
....
Josephine County Emergency Manager Emily Ring asked the state on Tuesday for a refrigerated trailer that could hold “20-48 cadavers.”

She wrote that the county hospital is daily exceeding its body storage capacity and that the five funeral homes and three crematoriums are “at the edge of crisis capacity daily.”

“Trailer must have hoists for body lifts and shelves,” she said in her urgent request form.

Can someone try to explain to me why OR is in such bad shape? Our vaccination rates are pretty solid relative to other states. We’ve got tons of space out here. After the really bad heat dome earlier this summer, the weather has been temperate leading to lots of people outdoors rather than inside. And we have a governor who’s been quick to implement COVID-related rules (we’ve got a freaking OUTDOOR mask mandate, FFS).

Why are we not doing better at COVID?

Low vaccination rates, particularly in the southern part of the state.




Edit:

Oregon's new, stricter mask mandates may take a month or more to make a difference in the state's spiking COVID-19 case rate, according to researchers. But they also say the vaccine has had time to make a difference, if only people would get the shot.

On average, the county vaccination rate in Oregon is 64%. In Jackson County in Southern Oregon, that rate is at 52%. Eight counties have a vaccination rate of less than 40%. Health experts say that's a big part of why the southern part of the state is one of the COVID-19 hot spots in the country, maybe even the hottest.

...
Professor Chunhuei Chi of OSU's Center For Global Health says misinformation spread by various forms of media and by word of mouth can be the main reason people are discouraged from getting vaccinated.

"Fully vaccinated people can be equally contagious. That’s incorrect. They can be only if they are infected. But keep in mind, fully vaccinated people have far less probability of being infected. On average fully vaccinated people have less than ten percent chance compared with unvaccinated people, less than ten percent likely to be infected by Delta." said Chi.

[Daehawk]

Some schools in this county and surrounding ones are closed this week either for a couple days or all week due to staffing shortages and lack of bus drivers.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, I thought I saw their vaccination rates were close to 40% fully vaccinated, though that article mentioned 53%. Maybe I saw a different article or it was another county in OR.

Not sure if it's an access issue or a political resistance issue. My rural part of 'merica currently has about 52% of the 12+ population fully vaccinated. I'm fully expecting things to get weird for the same reason - there's so much human fuel waiting to be exploited, including kids under 12.

[Kurth]

Two mostly rural Oregon counties request refrigeration trucks to hold bodies.

The death toll from COVID-19 in Oregon is climbing so rapidly that two counties have requested refrigerated trucks to hold the bodies, the state emergency management department said Saturday.
....
Josephine County Emergency Manager Emily Ring asked the state on Tuesday for a refrigerated trailer that could hold “20-48 cadavers.”

She wrote that the county hospital is daily exceeding its body storage capacity and that the five funeral homes and three crematoriums are “at the edge of crisis capacity daily.”

“Trailer must have hoists for body lifts and shelves,” she said in her urgent request form.

Can someone try to explain to me why OR is in such bad shape? Our vaccination rates are pretty solid relative to other states. We’ve got tons of space out here. After the really bad heat dome earlier this summer, the weather has been temperate leading to lots of people outdoors rather than inside. And we have a governor who’s been quick to implement COVID-related rules (we’ve got a freaking OUTDOOR mask mandate, FFS).

Why are we not doing better at COVID?

Low vaccination rates, particularly in the southern part of the state.




Edit:

Oregon's new, stricter mask mandates may take a month or more to make a difference in the state's spiking COVID-19 case rate, according to researchers. But they also say the vaccine has had time to make a difference, if only people would get the shot.

On average, the county vaccination rate in Oregon is 64%. In Jackson County in Southern Oregon, that rate is at 52%. Eight counties have a vaccination rate of less than 40%. Health experts say that's a big part of why the southern part of the state is one of the COVID-19 hot spots in the country, maybe even the hottest.

...
Professor Chunhuei Chi of OSU's Center For Global Health says misinformation spread by various forms of media and by word of mouth can be the main reason people are discouraged from getting vaccinated.

"Fully vaccinated people can be equally contagious. That’s incorrect. They can be only if they are infected. But keep in mind, fully vaccinated people have far less probability of being infected. On average fully vaccinated people have less than ten percent chance compared with unvaccinated people, less than ten percent likely to be infected by Delta." said Chi.

That doesn’t really make much sense to me. Our overall adult vaccination rate (64.8%) is one of the better ones in the country. The fact that we’ve got some very rural, sparsely populated counties deep in MAGA land with shitty vaccination rates shouldn’t impact the overall picture nearly so much, should it? You ever been to any of those counties in southern and eastern OR? Like, no one freaking lives out there. Why are their crappy vaccination rates having any kind of impact on the hospital situation in Portland (which sucks right now)?

[Smoove_B]

Why are their crappy vaccination rates having any kind of impact on the hospital situation in Portland (which sucks right now)?

Lawbeef can probably explain this better, but it has to do with our tiered structure of healthcare. Namely, local/smaller hospitals aren't built or designed to handle "surge" events - they don't have the equipment/space/staff to handle things. Instead, there's an understanding that the more rural health centers are going to send their patients to larger healthcare systems where they have access to more specialized care.

The problem is that the larger healthcare systems are already overburdened with COVID and whatever else they're normally dealing with, so when smaller more rural healthcare centers are trying to send the random 2,3 or 5 people to a larger healthcare center, it adds up. Maybe those centers are typically only sending 1 or 2 people every few months. Now they could be potentially sending them daily.

In short, the system isn't designed to handle what's happening at such a large scale; it never was.

[El Guapo]

And on top of that my understanding is that most hospital systems have focused heavily on efficiency to the point where there are considerably fewer beds even at major hospital centers than there were 20 or 30 years ago.

[Skinypupy]

Talked to my brother this morning. He and three of his kids have been in quarantine for positive tests since last week. All three kids are fine, with minor coughs, low-grade fevers, and some body aches. They’re feeling much better today.

Unfortunately, it has absolutely floored him. He’s 43, vaccinated, and is maybe the healthiest guy I know. 6’0", 180, excellent diet, non-smoker, runs 30+ miles a week, etc. Said that he was barely even able to get out of bed all weekend because the cough was so bad.

He felt a little better this morning, so he tried to do something very simple and mop up a spill one of the kids had made on the floor. He walked from the bed to the closet to get the mop (same room), spent a minute or so mopping up the spill, and had to go right back to bed because he was completely out of breath from just that minimal movement. He said the cough thankfully seems to be subsiding today, but he still feels worse than he ever has in his life.

If COVID can have that effect on a completely healthy, in-shape, vaccinated person, I can only imagine how horrific it is for someone who has other health issues and isn’t vaccinated to begin with.

[Smoove_B]

I haven't seen a bed census in a few years, but it wouldn't surprise me to learn there are fewer beds now (or there were fewer beds in 2019 heading into the pandemic) nationwide than what had been in place 5+ years before.

Unrelated, but some might remember early on in the pandemic there were some experimental wastewater monitoring stations set up nationwide to see if they could predict the next wave of COVID. Basically monitoring the wastewater for the virus being shed in feces.

Parts of Virginia might want to get ready...

https://twitter.com/PoopScience/status/ ... 4013230083

What's extra helpful is that if you zoom into the graph, they've labeled the X axis to include noteworthy points in the pandemic.

[LawBeefaroni]

1. Delta spread. Particularly among the unvaccinated, rural distance isn't the protection it once was. One trip to the feed store or Walmart is all it takes. And if you made 100 such trips over the past year with no issues, you'd probably be emboldened lately. might forego the mask. Human nature.

2. Limited resources. As Smoove mentioned, capacity is limited. A multi-car pileup would stretch system on any given day. Now imagine that happening daily.

3. A 65% vaccinated county surrounded by 40% vaccinated counties is going to reap some of what the anti-vaxxers sow. Viruses and rates don't confirm to borders. Part of a county may he at 20% while another may be at 80%. We have zip codes here that are 90s and others that are 30s. In one city.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Some interesting perspective from the New York Times on how Britons are handling their high infection rates:

Britons, Unfazed by High Covid Rates, Weigh Their ‘Price of Freedom’

Britain is reporting more than 30,000 new coronavirus cases a day, but the public seems to have moved on. Experts say this could be a glimpse into the future for other countries.

LONDON — Nearly 60,000 soccer fans packed London’s Emirates Stadium last Sunday to watch Chelsea outplay Arsenal. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s musical “Cinderella” made its glittering debut in the West End after multiple Covid-related delays. On the subway, where masks are still mandatory, half of the riders go barefaced.

All of this at a time when Britain is reporting more than 30,000 new coronavirus cases a day, hospitals are coming under renewed strain, and preliminary data shows that the protection provided by the vaccines ebbs several months after the second dose.

Such is the strange new phase of Britain’s pandemic: The public has moved on, even if the virus has not. Given that Britain has been at the vanguard of so many previous coronavirus developments — from incubating variants to rolling out vaccines — experts say this could be a glimpse into the future for other countries.

“We don’t seem to care that we have these really high infection rates,” said Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London who has been leading a major study of Covid-19 symptoms. “It looks like we’re just accepting it now — that this is the price of freedom.”

Some of that equanimity may stem from the fact that Britain’s case rate, while high, has not yet risen anywhere near the level that government officials predicted when they lifted virtually all Covid restrictions last month. Some may be because so many Britons are vaccinated, fewer serious cases are being reported. And some of it may simply reflect fatigue, after 17 months of baleful headlines and stifling lockdowns.

“There’s a feeling that finally we can breathe; we can start trying to get back what we’ve lost,” said Devi Sridhar, the head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh. “It’s really difficult to ask people not to mix for a prolonged period, especially if there is no solution.”

With nearly 80 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated and the virus still circulating widely, Professor Sridhar said, Britain may be a model for other countries of “whether you can manage Covid in a sustainable way.” The evidence, she added, was inconclusive because Britain still faces critical challenges, like the reopening of schools on Wednesday.

That will almost certainly drive rates up further, particularly because Britain has resisted vaccinating children and younger teenagers. But epidemiologists are loath to make specific predictions because many were proved wrong in July when cases fell immediately after “Freedom Day,” when most restrictions were lifted.