Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Formix]

The people I follow online are split 50/50. Some are saying not to worry yet, but others are already busting out graphs showing how it's rapidly spreading in South Africa at a rate higher than Delta and we all need to switch to elastomer masks.

Ant what sort of cartridge/filter are they recommending? (asking for a friend who might be me)

[Blackhawk]

For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.

That's like 250,000 years in virus years.

We missed several chances to squash this thing due to poor decisions and lack of cooperation. Every time we gain some ground we declare victory and party like it's 1999.

That was less a comment on evolution and more a cautionary note about how quickly Delta spread and took over. It seems like Delta has been the only game in town forever, and six months ago it didn't even have a name. If this new Nu from the land of the gnu does the same, it'll happen fast.

[Smoove_B]

Ant what sort of cartridge/filter are they recommending? (asking for a friend who might be me)

You can read the official guidance here, but the N95 or N100 would be the ones to get. The idea overall is that this mask would be a better fit and get you closer to true N95+ filtration (assuming it fits your face/head correctly) than whatever mask you're using now. They recommend against the pancake style filters on this page because this is really focused on health care application, but they would be fine for regular use. Having them in plastic housing would be better, but it wouldn't be a deal killer for me if I could only get pancake style right now.

I'm not going to lie, I'm considering it - just in case.

[Kraken]

For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.

That's like 250,000 years in virus years.

We missed several chances to squash this thing due to poor decisions and lack of cooperation. Every time we gain some ground we declare victory and party like it's 1999.

That was less a comment on evolution and more a cautionary note about how quickly Delta spread and took over. It seems like Delta has been the only game in town forever, and six months ago it didn't even have a name. If this new Nu from the land of the gnu does the same, it'll happen fast.

Agreed. And if Nu can actually outcompete and replace Delta, it's going to be vicious.

[Smoove_B]

In case anyone wants to delve into the details:

https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923

(from the bottom of the profile)

So the mutation profile is bad (as @PeacockFlu and others have already pointed out). We don't yet know how they act together, or how a virus with so many changes will behave. We need to learn more, fast. To end on a hopeful note, it's mind-blowing how quickly we've got this far. Kudos to @Tuliodna et al for getting this out, and setting the global scientific community onto experiments to answer more of these questions. Let's get to work.

It's kinda cool how they're already starting to science the hell out of it so quickly. How that ends up impacting anything, who knows, but the speed at which they're taking a look at the ingredients is kinda impressive.

[malchior]

It's impressive for sure. That they've been doing enough 'cataloguing' to group together and predict mutations and possible theories of impact to test are great. The few discussions are armed with that foresight and don't sound good at all. I also can't help but think all this early warning will be wasted.

[Smoove_B]

It's impressive for sure. That they've been doing enough 'cataloguing' to group together and predict mutations and possible theories of impact to test are great. The few discussions I read don't sound good at all based on this foresight. I also can't help but think all this early warning will be wasted.

Gee, what has happened so far with this pandemic that would lead you to believe we're not going to take this seriously?

It's already been genetically identified in 4 or 5 countries as of this morning, so we're going to see soon enough. Wouldn't surprise me at all to learn it's already here, but we aren't aggressively sequencing and monitoring like other countries. Cynical me think it might be because of how the international community is already responding to South Africa's discovery.

I still don't think it's time to panic, but it would be a really good time to aggressively booster and mandate masks. I guess we'll see.

[Unagi]

For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.

That's like 250,000 years in virus years.

We missed several chances to squash this thing due to poor decisions and lack of cooperation. Every time we gain some ground we declare victory and party like it's 1999.

That was less a comment on evolution and more a cautionary note about how quickly Delta spread and took over. It seems like Delta has been the only game in town forever, and six months ago it didn't even have a name. If this new Nu from the land of the gnu does the same, it'll happen fast.

Agreed. And if Nu can actually outcompete and replace Delta, it's going to be vicious.

For what it's worth....

I've read that it's called Omicron, not Nu.

[Max Peck]

It is Omicron. Maybe they skipped Nu out of concern that it would be conflated with "new"... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) is an independent group of experts that periodically monitors and evaluates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assesses if specific mutations and combinations of mutations alter the behaviour of the virus. The TAG-VE was convened on 26 November 2021 to assess the SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.529.

The B.1.1.529 variant was first reported to WHO from South Africa on 24 November 2021. The epidemiological situation in South Africa has been characterized by three distinct peaks in reported cases, the latest of which was predominantly the Delta variant. In recent weeks, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant. The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9 November 2021.

This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs. The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage.

There are a number of studies underway and the TAG-VE will continue to evaluate this variant. WHO will communicate new findings with Member States and to the public as needed.

Based on the evidence presented indicative of a detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology, the TAG-VE has advised WHO that this variant should be designated as a VOC, and the WHO has designated B.1.1.529 as a VOC, named Omicron.

[Max Peck]

Ant what sort of cartridge/filter are they recommending? (asking for a friend who might be me)

You can read the official guidance here, but the N95 or N100 would be the ones to get. The idea overall is that this mask would be a better fit and get you closer to true N95+ filtration (assuming it fits your face/head correctly) than whatever mask you're using now. They recommend against the pancake style filters on this page because this is really focused on health care application, but they would be fine for regular use. Having them in plastic housing would be better, but it wouldn't be a deal killer for me if I could only get pancake style right now.

I'm not going to lie, I'm considering it - just in case.

Are there any readily-available elastomeric ventilators that don't have unfiltered exhalation vents?

[Smoove_B]

Are there any readily-available elastomeric ventilators that don't have unfiltered exhalation vents?

They were approved in 2020 by NIOSH, but here's the list. "Readily available" is the rub. While I wouldn't wear an unfiltered exhalation in a medical setting, if I'm being honest, I don't have a problem wearing a traditional one while venturing into a super market. Or apparently to fill my car with go-go juice while looking for cans of Dinki-Di.

[Blackhawk]

For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.

That's like 250,000 years in virus years.

We missed several chances to squash this thing due to poor decisions and lack of cooperation. Every time we gain some ground we declare victory and party like it's 1999.

That was less a comment on evolution and more a cautionary note about how quickly Delta spread and took over. It seems like Delta has been the only game in town forever, and six months ago it didn't even have a name. If this new Nu from the land of the gnu does the same, it'll happen fast.

Agreed. And if Nu can actually outcompete and replace Delta, it's going to be vicious.

For what it's worth....

I've read that it's called Omicron, not Nu.

Huh, I could have sworn I saw a post here about it being Nu a day or two ago. That's OK, if it's going to kill me, I'd prefer it have the cooler name.

[Isgrimnur]

[Kraken]

Let's go with "Omigod."

[LawBeefaroni]

For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.

That's like 250,000 years in virus years.

We missed several chances to squash this thing due to poor decisions and lack of cooperation. Every time we gain some ground we declare victory and party like it's 1999.

That was less a comment on evolution and more a cautionary note about how quickly Delta spread and took over. It seems like Delta has been the only game in town forever, and six months ago it didn't even have a name. If this new Nu from the land of the gnu does the same, it'll happen fast.

Agreed. And if Nu can actually outcompete and replace Delta, it's going to be vicious.

So we're rooting for Delta?

[Grifman]

Are there any readily-available elastomeric ventilators that don't have unfiltered exhalation vents?

They were approved in 2020 by NIOSH, but here's the list. "Readily available" is the rub. While I wouldn't wear an unfiltered exhalation in a medical setting, if I'm being honest, I don't have a problem wearing a traditional one while venturing into a super market. Or apparently to fill my car with go-go juice while looking for cans of Dinki-Di.

I feel we're getting closer to Metro/Stalker every day.

[Max Peck]

Are there any readily-available elastomeric ventilators that don't have unfiltered exhalation vents?

They were approved in 2020 by NIOSH, but here's the list. "Readily available" is the rub. While I wouldn't wear an unfiltered exhalation in a medical setting, if I'm being honest, I don't have a problem wearing a traditional one while venturing into a super market. Or apparently to fill my car with go-go juice while looking for cans of Dinki-Di.

I did find one Canadian supplier that at least listed one of those ventilators, but with none in stock.

For the time being I'll continue to rely on my "C95" masks.

[Smoove_B]

For the time being I'll continue to rely on my "C95" masks.

It's a good choice, but as always it comes down to fit and anything with single loops over the ears is going to potentially not be tight enough to the shape of your face to get the seal needed for 95% filtration.

I've personally switched to the Korean 94% style because (for me) it fits my face better and find it more comfortable than the "duck style" N95 masks. I believe the reason the elastomer masks are being suggested now is because of that fit/seal reason - with two bands and (ideally) silicone fittings, it should get you closer to 95% filtration than any of the "disposable" masks (in quotes because the N95 styles are likely good for ~40 hours whereas the blue surgical masks are truly disposable).

I feel we're getting closer to Metro/Stalker every day.

Its funny because when I went to see my cardiologist (routine visit) in the summer of 2020, he was wearing an elastomer mask like the ones they're saying to wear now. When I went back a few months ago for another routine checkup, he was wearing a more comfortable elastomer mask that he said came from somewhere in Europe (Croatia? Serbia?)

I wish I could remember where I saw the article, but there's one hospital in all of the United States that had zero COVID-19 cases in staff. It was a TB hospital in TX and the reason is (they believe) because all the staff wear elastomer masks with P100 filtration. That article is from 2020, at the height of the PPE crisis.

[El Guapo]

Where would someone buy elastomeric masks?

[Alefroth]

Where would someone buy elastomeric masks?

+1

[Smoove_B]

Amazon has them along with the filters. You can also likely get them in any hardware store (local, big box) as they're more commonly used for people into woodworking, painting, furniture refinishing, etc...

3M seems to be the most common manufacturer and I believe the 6xxx series are the ones with the silicone seal for your face. They come in S/M/L sizes. Don't bother if you have facial hair as you'll never get a seal.

[Max Peck]

For the time being I'll continue to rely on my "C95" masks.

It's a good choice, but as always it comes down to fit and anything with single loops over the ears is going to potentially not be tight enough to the shape of your face to get the seal needed for 95% filtration.

One of the reasons I selected that particular product (although, to be fair, they didn't have a lot of competition at the beginning of 2021) is that they use head bands rather than ear loops. If I'm careful when I fit the mask, it seems to keep a good seal.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, the higher quality N95 masks (or more likely N100) have the double head loop design. Most famously seen here by Governor DeathSantis:

[El Guapo]

Amazon has them along with the filters. You can also likely get them in any hardware store (local, big box) as they're more commonly used for people into woodworking, painting, furniture refinishing, etc...

3M seems to be the most common manufacturer and I believe the 6xxx series are the ones with the silicone seal for your face. They come in S/M/L sizes. Don't bother if you have facial hair as you'll never get a seal.

Like this?

Are there any that don't make you look like Bane? Not an issue for me, but if I'm going to get my kids to wear these, especially at school, that's likely to be a problem.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, those are the style (though I don't have experience with that brand). They will all make you look (and sound) like Bane, unfortunately. I am not sure how a school would respond to a kid wearing these, if I were being honest. They seem to barely tolerate the current disposable masks and my daughter has said she's seen kids wearing fishnet-style face masks. With this style mask, communication is definitely going to be more difficult. Perhaps start them on some key phrases - "Do you feel in charge?" or "It would be extremely painful...for you."

I'd like to think schools would be closed before these types of masks would be the necessary ingredient for attending classes, but they'll at least let you all escape safely into the wilderness as you migrate north into the open arms of our Canadian brethren.

[Smoove_B]

More visualization from MA showing how important masks are

https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status ... 4034528261

See where the lines split apart in September?

That's when Boston reimplemented its indoor mask mandate.

Wear your mask indoors and, IMO, in crowded outdoor spaces during surges and stop complaining about it, thank you.

[Max Peck]

Amazon has them along with the filters. You can also likely get them in any hardware store (local, big box) as they're more commonly used for people into woodworking, painting, furniture refinishing, etc...

3M seems to be the most common manufacturer and I believe the 6xxx series are the ones with the silicone seal for your face. They come in S/M/L sizes. Don't bother if you have facial hair as you'll never get a seal.

Like this?

Are there any that don't make you look like Bane? Not an issue for me, but if I'm going to get my kids to wear these, especially at school, that's likely to be a problem.

Nice catch. I didn't get around to checking Amazon.ca for the GVS mask, and they actually have it in stock, along with replacement filters. Time to add to my PPE collection.

This is probably the least-weird elastomeric mask I've seen. Most of them have much higher profile filter mounts.

[Smoove_B]

Omicron stories (and theories) are all over the place, but this one out of Europe is quite problematic:

Nevertheless, the positive tests from the two KLM flights that landed at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport dramatically illustrated the potential threat. Health experts believe Omicron is behind South Africa’s recent COVID surge—and 10 percent of those on the jets were infected.

Those fliers are now in quarantine, but the specter of other infected travelers slipping through testing protocols and going on to their destinations undetected looms large.

So...are the tests not working or did people supply fraudulent information to get on a plane? So many questions. The big theory gaining popularity right now is that Omnicron has likely been circulating for over a month at this point and that until is hit a country that was doing aggressive testing and genomic sequencing (i.e. South Africa) we didn't know about it. So again, it's not that it originated in South Africa - they were just the first to detect and identify it. Won't be surprising then to learn it's already here in the U.S. and that the call to limit travelers from South Africa by Biden was pointless (as Fauci mentions in this article above).

Rather than (once again) pointlessly banning travelers, we should be pushing for boosters and universal masking. Though I know I'm screaming into the void with this.

[malchior]

I suspect Biden is only taking perfunctory steps because his WH is sensitive to how deeply unpopular he is. They probably figure that people won't listen and/or he will be heavily undermined by politicized state decision processes. Also some courts likely won't allow him to act. We are on our own here.

[Zaxxon]

I suspect Biden is only taking perfunctory steps because his WH is sensitive to how deeply unpopular he is. They probably figure that people won't listen and/or he will be heavily undermined by politicized state decision processes. Also some courts likely won't allow him to act. We are on our own here.

I think all of this has been pretty clear for awhile now.

[LawBeefaroni]

I wish I could remember where I saw the article, but there's one hospital in all of the United States that had zero COVID-19 cases in staff. It was a TB hospital in TX and the reason is (they believe) because all the staff wear elastomer masks with P100 filtration. That article is from 2020, at the height of the PPE crisis.

Well, that and negative pressure rooms if it's a TB/ID hospital.



I was at the range, which is across the street from the city line and thus no longer has a mask mandate. There was an instructor a few lanes over with one of those elastomer masks. He wore it for lead particle mitigation. He'd take it off to talk to students. No one was wearing them in the shop. It's like, "No, no, I don't believe in masks for COVID. Of course not. Just lead dust."

[Smoove_B]

I wish I could say I was surprised.

Here's a great visual as to where we are now in America with vaccinations:

https://twitter.com/KBibbinsDomingo/sta ... 7609071621

48% of US population fully vaccinated, but not boosted
35% eligible, but not fully vaccinated
6% under age 5 (not eligible for vaccination)

Only 11% fully vaccinated and boosted

[Grifman]

Early but potentially good news about Omicron - IF you are fully vaccinated (read the entire thread):


https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 232640?s=2

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/stat ... 11011?s=21

[Smoove_B]

I'd seen that, and just as many respected voices pushing back - that it's too early to say anything with certainty. Here's a broad overview:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/sta ... 8201015297

The omicron variant could be less, as much, or more transmissible and/or virulent than prior SARSCoV2 lineages in circulation. Only real data will tell, and any prediction about omicron's virulence remains largely futile at this stage.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/sta ... 0293977095

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/medschooladvice/sta ... 3220174848

[Blackhawk]

More visualization from MA showing how important masks are

https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status ... 4034528261

See where the lines split apart in September?

That's when Boston reimplemented its indoor mask mandate.

Wear your mask indoors and, IMO, in crowded outdoor spaces during surges and stop complaining about it, thank you.

Can you explain this graph to people who aren't from MA? What's an MWRA service area? Is MWRA Boston and non-MWRA non-Boston? Is it different parts of the city? Of the state?

[Smoove_B]

Can you explain this graph to people who aren't from MA? What's an MWRA service area? Is MWRA Boston and non-MWRA non-Boston? Is it different parts of the city? Of the state?

It's a breakdown based on where people receive their public water from - so it's a geographical distribution. I don't know the specifics, but I believe it's showing Boston and Boston adjacent (MWRA service) vs places more in what might be labeled "suburbs". So the City proper had mask mandates while outlier areas did not - and so we see increased cases in communities (zip codes?) without mask mandates in place. That's the theory, anyway.

[Blackhawk]

Gotcha. That tells a different story than if it was south Boston vs east Boston, or all of Boston vs the rest of the state.

[Kasey Chang]

Newsweek is reporting that some Europeans antivaxxers, desperate to move around with a Green pass yet unwilling to vaccinate, are organizing COVID pox parties to deliberately infect each other. And at least one Austrian man has died from it.

The 55-year-old died in Austria last week after contracting the virus. Similar parties are now prevalent in the Italian city of Bolzano and elsewhere across the province of South Tyrol, Rai Alto Adige reported, citing Patrick Franzoni, deputy co-ordinator of a COVID unit in the city.

Franzoni said he and colleagues are aware that some young people are deliberately attempting to catch COVID-19, with the ultimate goal of obtaining a "green pass" without being vaccinated against COVID-19.

With a study indicating that unvaxxed's COVID virus showing far more genetic diversity than vaxxed folks, it's pretty clear who's creating the new variants with scary names like delta, mu, and omicron. They are killing themselves and dragging us along with them.