Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

It’s a good thing it’s not a community health risk!

The survey qualified that it wasn't seen as a "severe" risk. And naturally this isn't severe. Americans get it done. They are self-sufficient individuals not unfamiliar with frontier ways. We have women giving birth while the car self-drives on Autopilot. We have this innovator who successfully colonized their own circulatory system with psychedelic mushrooms to treat their depression. And it's not like we should be worried by the accounts of people developing psychosis following mild COVID cases. That'll hardly impact the community at scale.

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/wsbgnl/status/1477244475210559488

How does this get into print?

[RunningMn9]

During previous spikes, everyone panicked, which caused people to change behavior, which bent the curve back down. What will happen now that we continue the messaging that this is like the common cold, despite the evidence (which once again showed up like clockwork at about 3 weeks after the spike in cases)? I assume that in taking no action, this will just go away in a week or two?

[Daehawk]

Every time I come into this thread it be like ......

[Kraken]

I assume that in taking no action, this will just go away in a week or two?

That's the wishful-thinking scenario, based largely on South Africa's experience. Omicron is burning so fast that it will soon run out of fuel, and will then recede as quickly as it's growing now. Maybe. We hope. Those pushing this idea have it peaking as early as Jan. 6 and being over by the beginning of February, or peaking as late as Jan. 30 and ending by late February.

[RunningMn9]

That's the wishful-thinking scenario, based largely on South Africa's experience. Omicron is burning so fast that it will soon run out of fuel, and will then recede as quickly as it's growing now. Maybe. We hope. Those pushing this idea have it peaking as early as Jan. 6 and being over by the beginning of February, or peaking as late as Jan. 30 and ending by late February.

I thought I was being sarcastic.

The last "new hospitalizations" graph I saw, was literally a vertical line going up.

[Smoove_B]

I thought I was being sarcastic.

The last "new hospitalizations" graph I saw, was literally a vertical line going up.

Over and over we keep doing this. When I say "we", I mean society.

https://twitter.com/AndrewMakeTweet/sta ... 8355147784

First, when cases are lower, though still high: “It’s over!”

Then, as cases surge: “Cases will be decoupled from hospitalizations!

Then, as hospitalizations surge: “At least vaccinated people are mostly ok!”

Then, as deaths surge: [strategic silence]

Cases come down, repeat.

[malchior]

I thought I was being sarcastic.

The last "new hospitalizations" graph I saw, was literally a vertical line going up.

Over and over we keep doing this. When I say "we", I mean society.

I suspect everyone "knows" it but refuses to acknowledge it because it'd mean they'd have trouble justifying doing whatever the fuck they want.

[Max Peck]

It's weird that I know so many people that travelled over the holidays and came down with really bad colds. But they know it's just a cold because they took a rapid test and it was negative.

In other news, the virus is literally everywhere...

Antarctic outpost hit by Covid-19 outbreak

A Belgian scientific research station in Antarctica is dealing with an outbreak of Covid-19, despite workers being fully vaccinated and based in one of the world's remotest regions.

Since 14 December, at least 16 of the 25 workers at the Princess Elisabeth Polar Station have caught the virus.

Officials say cases remain mild so far.

"The situation isn't dramatic," Joseph Cheek, a project manager for the International Polar Foundation, told the BBC.

[msteelers]

It's weird that I know so many people that travelled over the holidays and came down with really bad colds. But they know it's just a cold because they took a rapid test and it was negative.

I know a lot if people who had some very serious cold/flu like symptoms over Christmas. Everyone tested negative using at home tests, nobody took an actual flu test to confirm if it was the flu though.

I’m willing to believe that there’s also a bad cold/flu going around. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if we find that the at home tests are even worse than we think at detecting omicron.

[Smoove_B]

I’m willing to believe that there’s also a bad cold/flu going around. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if we find that the at home tests are even worse than we think at detecting omicron.

The current theory is that it's better to test the throat instead of the nose. In other words, nasal swab for rapid test might give a (-) result but if you did the throat it would hit (+) in the same person.

So yeah. Everything is super.

[msteelers]

Adding a throat swab sounds extra awful.

[YellowKing]

There are legit colds going around, just like they do every year. One of my co-workers just got tested at an actual clinic and was negative despite severe cold symptoms. So you've got people with symptoms who don't have Covid, people with symptoms that do have Covid, and people with Covid who don't have symptoms. And all the symptoms of the non-Covid colds and Covid are pretty much identical, so you may want to take a test which may or may not be accurate. Simple, really.

[LawBeefaroni]

I’m willing to believe that there’s also a bad cold/flu going around. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if we find that the at home tests are even worse than we think at detecting omicron.

The current theory is that it's better to test the throat instead of the nose. In other words, nasal swab for rapid test might give a (-) result but if you did the throat it would hit (+) in the same person.

So yeah. Everything is super.

You're also relying on people to do the test correctly. There's a lot of room for error in collection and execution.

[LawBeefaroni]

Also, FWIW, I know 4 people who got a positive result on a home test (all Binax) in the past week or so. 3 were confirmed with PCR. One didn't bother and just assumed it was accurate. Surely they were all Omicron.

[Smoove_B]

Because irony is dead, the NJ governor is switching to a remote update on COVID-19 for our state...because his wife tested positive for the virus after their 8 day trip to Costa Rica.

But all you teachers and kids? Back to school for you tomorrow.

[El Guapo]

Well, students and teachers for my kids' school are going to do at home tests tomorrow. My kids don't have symptoms and got negatives on at home tests on Saturday, so 99% sure they both come back negative, but I'll be watching my e-mails tomorrow to see how many positives I hear about.

[malchior]

My town went virtual for 2 weeks ... they announced this at 7:30 PM on Sunday night. I'm waiting for pitchforks at my neighbors house if Facebook is a guide.

[RunningMn9]

My town went virtual for 2 weeks ... they announced this at 7:30 PM on Sunday night. I'm waiting for pitchforks at my neighbors house if Facebook is a guide.

Every parent I know in NJ would riot - even the ones that are otherwise sensible. Going virtual under any circumstances is a non-starter for them.

[malchior]

My town went virtual for 2 weeks ... they announced this at 7:30 PM on Sunday night. I'm waiting for pitchforks at my neighbors house if Facebook is a guide.

Every parent I know in NJ would riot - even the ones that are otherwise sensible. Going virtual under any circumstances is a non-starter for them.

It definitely set off a firestorm. Many were ok with it but many (rightly IMO) pointed out that working parents are suffering because the school system dicked around with the decision. That's fair. I do know to some degree the folks involved were desperately looking for tests and guidance from our state government. And didn't get any help.

Edit: Fun fact - Woodbridge just closed for some period (tbd)...because swaths of the administrative staff started calling out today. Luckily they'll be expected to be back on the job in a week.

[Victoria Raverna]

My town went virtual for 2 weeks ... they announced this at 7:30 PM on Sunday night. I'm waiting for pitchforks at my neighbors house if Facebook is a guide.

Every parent I know in NJ would riot - even the ones that are otherwise sensible. Going virtual under any circumstances is a non-starter for them.

They don't care about the health of their children?

[YellowKing]

Those of us who can just let our kids go virtual and not have any problem with it are coming from a place of privilege.

Think about single parents struggling to make ends meet with no way to take off work and nobody to stay with their kids at home. Parents who don't have computers in the home or internet in the home, parents who aren't technologically savvy enough to navigate the multiple websites necessary to get their kids logged on to class.

You can't tell the single mom working for minimum wage that she has to come up with childcare and the money to pay for it a day before her kid is supposed to switch to virtual schooling. And then tell her she doesn't care about her child's health if she raises a fuss.

Virtual schooling is fine, but the infrastructure needs to be there to support and assist those families in need. And classroom schooling is fine, but the infrastructure needs to be there to keep kids healthy and safe. We've failed on both fronts.

[Smoove_B]

If only there was some time off in December already - time when teachers, parents, administrators, local health officials could have come up with a solution. Knowing full well that it stresses families to have kids home full time and attend classes remotely, perhaps we give those that can stay home a way to so as a way to reduce the number of people in the school and make it safer for them. We could call it "hybrid schooling" or something similar.

Or maybe back in August when all of this was predicted a much more effective solution could have been figured out. Instead we (society) is pretending like everything is fine and it's going to be the teachers, school staff and kids that are going to end up paying the price. We are so broken.

Regardless, I'm not sure it will matter before long. The virus is not done with us quite yet.

[malchior]

Also the child tax credit spigot was turned off because of an old rich guy and put more pressure on parents everywhere. We show over and over we don't give a damn about our children (at society scale).

[RunningMn9]

They don't care about the health of their children?

They’re children are almost certainly going to be completely fine. What they know is that the schools have done nothing to figure out how to teach effectively while remote. So they’ve continued to watch their kids fall behind and learn nothing for nearly two years. They aren’t going back to that.

[El Guapo]

Well, students and teachers for my kids' school are going to do at home tests tomorrow. My kids don't have symptoms and got negatives on at home tests on Saturday, so 99% sure they both come back negative, but I'll be watching my e-mails tomorrow to see how many positives I hear about.

Update - got an e-mail from my son's fourth grade teachers saying that the teachers tested negative. Not sure whether that means just fourth grade, or all, but a good start I suppose.

[stimpy]

I’m willing to believe that there’s also a bad cold/flu going around. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if we find that the at home tests are even worse than we think at detecting omicron.

The current theory is that it's better to test the throat instead of the nose. In other words, nasal swab for rapid test might give a (-) result but if you did the throat it would hit (+) in the same person.

So yeah. Everything is super.

You're also relying on people to do the test correctly. There's a lot of room for error in collection and execution.

Not according to some......

I don't know what test you are getting, but the Abbot Binax ones are perfectly clear in results and instructions.

[Alefroth]

You misunderstood what I said.

[Smoove_B]

Look at that swagger

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/statu ... 7606761476

BREAKING: Covid hospitalizations in NYC surpass 5k for first time since spring, 2020.

Today’s #’s in NYC…
* Total hospitalized: 5,038
* Total ICU: 538
* New hospital admissions in past day: 876
* Newly reported cases: 29,246
* Positivity: 22.7%

[malchior]

Just need to toughen up. Breaking news in my household. My boosted brother in law is positive for COVID and is very sick right now. As in might go visit the hospital for his 'mild' case. The family moved my wife's grandfather into a assisted living facility last week so looks like we're all testing tonight.

[Kraken]

Ouch, sorry to hear that, mal.

Six of Wife's coworkers called out sick today with various covid statuses, ranging from being sick to having sick family members to having tested positive. This is out of 40 people. Her office went all-remote just before the holidays so no direct exposure for us.

[Zaxxon]

Hoping for the best for you, malchior.

[malchior]

Thanks. Good news is the wife is negative according to rapid test. I'm only exposed if she is since I rarely leave the bunker. Only thing we can do for my BIL like everyone else is just wait and see. It sucks. A distressing factor is that his wife is 8 months pregnant but then again New Years Eve adjacent festivities were just too important to pass up. I'll stop moralizing now but sheesh.

[El Guapo]

Just walked to center of town to pick up dry cleaning, and noticed that the local toy store has a sign up saying that they're closed until the 11th "due to COVID-related staffing shortages."

[Isgrimnur]

[El Guapo]

BREAKING: Covid hospitalizations in NYC surpass 5k for first time since spring, 2020.

Today’s #’s in NYC…
* Total hospitalized: 5,038
* Total ICU: 538
* New hospital admissions in past day: 876
* Newly reported cases: 29,246
* Positivity: 22.7%

So nearly 30,000 New Yorkers are swagger-deficient.

[Zaxxon]

Just saw that all jury trials in our county are remote for the time being due to COVID. Schools? Totally in person with no restrictions, though.

[El Guapo]

Just saw that all jury trials in our county are remote for the time being due to COVID. Schools? Totally in person with no restrictions, though.

Massachusetts just halted jury trials until Jan. 31st.

[Defiant]

Always nice to see NJ as #1 in the nation...with % positive tests via Johns Hopkins or here.

(1) NJ @ 87%
(2) DC @ 68%
(3) PA @63%

Good grief.

As a reminder:

Positivity Rate (or Percent Positive) is a useful measure of how much COVID-19 is spreading in a community. Positivity rate tells us the percent of COVID-19 tests that come back as positive out of all the tests that were taken in that time period.

Uhh.... right now, the John Hopkins website shows a couple of states have positivity higher than 100% (NJ 120.6%, PA 115.2%).

Given the definition above, I don't understand how they can be over 100%. Can someone explain?

(I thought maybe it was total number of positive tests divided by the number of unique people who got a test, in case some people got multiple positive tests, but that doesn't seem to be the case. In one state, they use positive people over total specimens and in the other it's positive people over total people. I don't think either should go above 100%, and certainly not the second one).

[malchior]

It could be just bad data. It's possible that cases reported are not aligning with the number of tests conducted per day for some reason. It's not like we've ever experienced anything like this and perhaps processes are involved that aren't holding up under strain. The takeaway though is its through the roofs into 'tough to measure with accuracy'.

Apparently that itself is not a bar for action. Hospitalizations are on track to eclipse worse than the previous peak in Spring 2020 here in NJ within days. The guidance is 'get a vaccine'. Cool. Cool.