Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:34 pm

At least my 401k is healthy.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:43 pm

That tweet from the HUD Secretary is...something.

If this doesn't give you pause:

https://twitter.com/JacobBor/status/1480268298000515073

Part of what has been so maddening about the current COVID wave is the uncertainty about what epidemiologic reality we live in.

It is becoming clearer, and the answer is not good.

These next few weeks are going to be another painful lesson, I fear.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:42 am

Thankfully I am allergic to shellfish so I've never stepped foot in a Red Lobster.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/14 ... 2340731904

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:50 am

Yup. Them more you stop and think about things, you start to realize how so many of the problems we're having are related to how the United States views work and workers. It's almost like...the virus is perfectly designed (no, it's not designed) to take advantage of our social structure. I've said it before, but you couldn't have created a more perfect virus to completely disrupt America. No paid sick leave? No government support for citizens? Personal freedom above all? Good f-ing luck.

Also, public health is rightfully pointing out that Emily Oster is hot garbage.

https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/ ... 0723780609

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:01 pm

I'm sure there might be some data that was tortured to say it but did people really buy into the idea that schools wouldn't spread this highly contagious disease? That's a very different discussion (in my mind) versus the 'let 'er rip' strategy because the kids won't die (but sorry grandma!) that we heard early on. I missed this strain of incredulity apparently.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:05 pm

Yes, they absolutely did. Florida's entire school plan used (and quoted) Emily Oster's articles as sound reasoning to keep schools open and have kids unmasked. People stormed BOE meetings using her justifications as well. So the Fall 2021 school year was set up in so many places to not be ready to deal with what's happening now because they were told by "experts" that schools weren't going to spread disease - no worries.

It's all part of the goal post moving to keep schools open. First it was that kids don't get sick or die. When that started happening, it was a pivot to well those kids have comorbidities and it's only a fraction of a percent - so keep schools open. So then we pointed out that kids were going to get sick at schools (especially without masks) and bring disease home to parents, caretakers, grandparents, etc... so the new talking point (spearheaded by Oster) was that kids can't spread the virus. Sure, some might get sick and die but it's not like they're going to spread it to the community, causing disruptions, suffering and death.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:16 pm

Yeah I totally missed that. I mean it's should be amazing that multiple generations of experience and common sense was flushed into the memory hole...but it's not anymore. Arguing about risk tradeoffs I get but they thought schools didn't spread disease?! Brought to you by the council of abstinence-only educators who think that it'll prevent pregnancy.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:18 pm

From 5 to 41 in my area! That's winning, right? Only one other region only increased by 8 times or less.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:42 pm

Every time I feel like quitting social media, I'm sent a reminder of why it's fantastic.

https://twitter.com/NeoliberalSnow/stat ... 6630208517

Broad street businesses were complaining so I reinstalled the pump handle.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:31 pm

So this morning I got a MassNotify alert saying that I've probably been exposed to COVID because my phone was near another MassNotify user who reported testing positive for COVID.

Not totally sure what to make of it. The app says that if you've been vaccinated (which of course I have) then you don't need to get tested unless you develop symptoms. I'm also curious because I guess I assume that I'm exposed to at least some COVID every time that I leave my house. But per the message it sounds like it's not just "you were near someone who tested positive for at least 1 second", but rather it mentions the duration and strength of the inter-phone signals, which makes it sound like the alert doesn't get triggered if you're just together for a few seconds or the like.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:33 pm

The app is forcing you to think about what you've been doing and if you've been anywhere unmasked around strangers. If so and/or if you start to develop symptoms, get tested.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:38 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:33 pm The app is forcing you to think about what you've been doing and if you've been anywhere unmasked around strangers. If so and/or if you start to develop symptoms, get tested.

Yeah I figure it'll lower the symptom threshold for me to get tested this week, at least (currently no symptoms). The kids had to test this morning before school and they both came back negative, FWIW. But it's not like I've been making out with strangers at the COVID ward recently, so I think I'm ok?

Archinerd · Post by **Archinerd** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:40 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:42 pm Every time I feel like quitting social media, I'm sent a reminder of why it's fantastic.

https://twitter.com/NeoliberalSnow/stat ... 6630208517

Broad street businesses were complaining so I reinstalled the pump handle.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:41 pm

FWIW, I haven't given up.

I've retreated to a defensive position. I've realized that the rest of the nation is happy to burn me and my family to the ground to avoid the inconvenience of donning headwear, and I've begun to look at them as a threat to be avoided rather than an opportunity to do some good (as I did early on.) So I'm pulling back, defending myself and my own, and if a third of the country wants to fiddle while the rest burns, so be it. I can't do anything else to stop it, and I can't do anything to change any more minds.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:42 pm

Archinerd wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:40 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:42 pm Every time I feel like quitting social media, I'm sent a reminder of why it's fantastic.

https://twitter.com/NeoliberalSnow/stat ... 6630208517

Broad street businesses were complaining so I reinstalled the pump handle.

I suspect my missing knowledge to get this joke is probably 19th century British sanitation?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:49 pm

Cholera epidemic caused by a contaminated well. He removed the pump handle.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:53 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:49 pm Cholera epidemic caused by a contaminated well. He removed the pump handle.

Suspicion confirmed.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:53 pm

I had to look it up. Even as I read about the local business objections to removing the pump, I didn't find one claim from the "Guardians" that John Snow knew nothing.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:58 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:38 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:33 pm The app is forcing you to think about what you've been doing and if you've been anywhere unmasked around strangers. If so and/or if you start to develop symptoms, get tested.
Yeah I figure it'll lower the symptom threshold for me to get tested this week, at least (currently no symptoms). The kids had to test this morning before school and they both came back negative, FWIW. But it's not like I've been making out with strangers at the COVID ward recently, so I think I'm ok?

But is that any way to really live?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:00 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:58 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:38 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:33 pm The app is forcing you to think about what you've been doing and if you've been anywhere unmasked around strangers. If so and/or if you start to develop symptoms, get tested.
Yeah I figure it'll lower the symptom threshold for me to get tested this week, at least (currently no symptoms). The kids had to test this morning before school and they both came back negative, FWIW. But it's not like I've been making out with strangers at the COVID ward recently, so I think I'm ok?
But is that any way to really live?

Well, last time I took a spin through the COVID ward it was only uggos there, so I figured I would come back another time. You have to have standards!

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:18 pm

When does this turn into a eugenics program?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1480721779538735107

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:37 pm

I hate you, Smoove. I was happy with my facial hair for the first time in 30 years. Today I shaved it off because of you, just to make a mask fit better. Way to ruin my self image!

Thanks, Smoove.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:21 pm

The Atlantic is gunning for Smoove, once more, with feeling: Two Years Is Long Enough

I got my COVID-19 booster shot last week, on the first day I was eligible. My shot was delayed because I caught COVID in early December, an experience that was low-key grim: two days of shotgun sneezing, no taste or smell for a week, and a constant fatigue that didn’t abate until the holidays. I was very glad to face the coronavirus with two Pfizer doses already in my arm, and even more grateful that my parents and 91 percent of Britons in their age group are triple-jabbed.

Immunity builds to a peak in the fortnight after vaccination, and so next week I will be about the most protected a human can realistically expect to be against COVID. That reflection has inevitably led to another one: I want my life back. Thank you, coronavirus. Next.

Avoiding the virus is no longer an option; Omicron has seen to that. Almost everyone is likely to catch the variant eventually. Over Christmas, one in 10 of my fellow Londoners—one in 10!—had COVID. Thanks to Britain’s solid vaccination rates, particularly among vulnerable groups, this tsunami of infections has so far led to a daily death toll less than a fifth the size of the one we had last winter. In the United States, the picture looks bleaker, with overwhelmed hospitals and 1,500 deaths a day. Because the vaccinated can still spread the disease, Americans should probably lie low for a few more weeks, until this wave subsides. Personally, I don’t need an immediate license to party like it’s February 2020, but I want some indication from lawmakers and medical experts that restrictions won’t last forever. For any country without the discipline, collectivism, and surveillance technology of China, the zero-COVID dream is over. Two years is long enough to put our lives on hold.

And it goes on from there, quite similarly to other pieces in this vein.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:28 pm

Oh Helen...

There will be trade-offs, and there will be casualties, but you can’t remove all risk from human existence.

Proving once again Nate Silver does not have a monopoly on hot takes. We want the same thing Helen. The difference is I'm not willing to label "normal life" relentless suffering and death for marginalized people so I can sit in a restaurant.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:40 am

Interestingly, in a review of two major Colorado hospital systems, most COVID-positive patients do appear to be there with COVID, not for COVID.

As Colorado’s hospitals work to keep up with an influx of patients during the state’s latest surge of coronavirus infections, two hospital systems have made an intriguing discovery: Most of their current patients who are positive for COVID are not in the hospital due to the disease.

Instead, the patients are what might be called incidental COVID patients — they were admitted to the hospital for reasons that are unrelated to COVID but were found to be infected after routine testing.

At UCHealth, officials on Tuesday announced the results of a review finding that about a third of their current COVID-positive patients were admitted for treatment for COVID, while the other two-thirds were admitted for something else. At Denver Health, medical director Dr. Connie Price said a review of patient records in January discovered that about 60% of the hospital’s COVID-positive patients had been admitted for reasons unrelated to the disease.

This is a change from previous waves. In August, Dr. Michelle Barron, UCHealth’s senior medical director of infection prevention and control, did a smaller review of COVID-positive patient records and found that about 95% of them had been admitted for treatment for the disease.

“So it’s a big turn in what we’re seeing now,” she said.

...

Part of the story, not the whole story
The new analyses add more context to the question, but they also come with significant limitations and caveats.

For one, Barron said it’s unclear what happens to the COVID-positive patients after they are admitted. It’s true they may have been admitted for reasons unrelated to their infection, but do they develop COVID symptoms in the hospital that need treatment? Does the infection make it more difficult for them to heal from what originally brought them to the hospital?

Barron referred to UCHealth’s analysis as a snapshot.

“This obviously tells part of the story but it doesn’t tell all of the story,” she said.

TODAY’S UNDERWRITER
She said the hospital system hopes to have more follow-up data later this week looking at patient outcomes as well as vaccination status.

Barron and Price also said the high percentage of COVID-positive patients who don’t need care for their infections belies another reality: There’s just a ton of patients coming in who do need care for a coronavirus infection.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:03 am

Smoove_B wrote:Oh Helen...

There will be trade-offs, and there will be casualties, but you can’t remove all risk from human existence.
Proving once again Nate Silver does not have a monopoly on hot takes. We want the same thing Helen. The difference is I'm not willing to label "normal life" relentless suffering and death for marginalized people so I can sit in a restaurant.

As long as the casualties don’t impact them personally, what do they care? They are just numbers on a spreadsheet.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:05 am

RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:03 am
Smoove_B wrote:Oh Helen...

There will be trade-offs, and there will be casualties, but you can’t remove all risk from human existence.
Proving once again Nate Silver does not have a monopoly on hot takes. We want the same thing Helen. The difference is I'm not willing to label "normal life" relentless suffering and death for marginalized people so I can sit in a restaurant.
As long as the casualties don’t impact them personally, what do they care? They are just numbers on a spreadsheet.

Or, as the current "pandemic of the unvaccinated" narrative goes, they're just getting what they deserve.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:10 am

... Except the kids... and the breakthroughs among the people you expect to serve you for sustenance wages or less... and the vulnerable... and the people who can't get care unrelated to COVID due to hospital overcrowding and safety... and the medical staff who have been worked to death sometimes literally for the last two years...

I mean aside from them what else is really being protected by keeping us from "partying" nor even a normal life?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:31 am

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:10 am ... Except the kids... and the breakthroughs among the people you expect to serve you for sustenance wages or less... and the vulnerable... and the people who can't get care unrelated to COVID due to hospital overcrowding and safety... and the medical staff who have been worked to death sometimes literally for the last two years...

I mean aside from them what else is really being protected by keeping us from "partying" nor even a normal life?

You dare question the new narrative?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:48 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:31 am
LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:10 am ... Except the kids... and the breakthroughs among the people you expect to serve you for sustenance wages or less... and the vulnerable... and the people who can't get care unrelated to COVID due to hospital overcrowding and safety... and the medical staff who have been worked to death sometimes literally for the last two years...

I mean aside from them what else is really being protected by keeping us from "partying" nor even a normal life?
You dare question the new narrative?

Well, I dare but of course I'm trying to protect people I care deeply about from getting what they deserve. When it's all said and done, as much as I hate hate hate the actions, it's still my family I'm protecting. (That and I'm vulnerable but honestly, I don't much care about me. I'm doing the right thing and if I get fucked, I played the hand I was dealt, and at least my nieces and nephews should get a reasonable inheritance, cause I'll go fast with this particular set of heart, lungs, and FUBAR immune system.)

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:58 am

Christ, why Fauci hasn't just thrown up his hands and told Rand Paul and other republican senators like Roger Marshall to "just go ahead and die, I'm tired of this" is beyond me. They're so laser focused on creating a demon out of Fauci based on misinformation it's ridiculous at this point. You're a fucking U.S. senator and you don't know what "public knowledge" means, you friggin' idiot?

https://twitter.com/LetsImpeachNow/stat ... 0420835329

edit: changed twitter link to a better view of the whole exchange...including giant fake check prop rolled out to emphasize Senator Marshall's stupidity...although he probably thought it was smart.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:02 pm

Between the 6(?) articles on The Atlantic about how we all just need to move on and this piece in yesterday's WSJ:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/14 ... 3168893952

When you read Speed the Spread of Omicron, you know we've got a problem

It's like there's a coordinated message being seeded. I would have thought after all this time people would have realized that we can't just ignore the virus into compliance or pretend like everything is fine and it'll just disappear. Instead, it's like there's a larger segment of society that is pushing back even harder now that we can just ignore it and it'll be fine.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:21 pm

This would be welcome news.

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1 ... 2167028743

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH @ashishkjha
With infections spiking, can be hard to see the light But the peak of this wave is coming into view

[graph]

Cases now falling in NYC, DC
MA wastewater shows big declines

Yes, parts of US still rising. And hospitals have many tough weeks ahead

But nationally, wave will crest. And soon

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:31 pm

Oh yeah, forgot to share this this morning (been busy). That wastewater data is quite encouraging - at least for the NE where it's being monitored. I think the fear is now that Omicron will be spreading south and to points west with an unknown ultimate impact. Even in NJ (where I don't think we're monitoring wastewater anywhere, because why would we do that?), cases seemed to have peaked ~5 days ago. We're decreasing daily, though not as sharp a decline as the increase that occurred before Xmas. Our hospitalizations, ICU beds, vents and deaths are all up - at levels close to or just above the peak Spring 2021 numbers but below the peak 2020 numbers. Vaccinations definitely making a difference but the idea that we've blown through hospital stats from last spring is really sad.

The ultimate impact for hospitals is still coming, but yes, hopefully cases have peaked. The sewage data is likely a better predictor of that than tests being run - can't overload the wastewater system.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:33 pm

hepcat wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:58 am edit: changed twitter link to a better view of the whole exchange...including giant fake check prop rolled out to emphasize Senator Marshall's stupidity...although he probably thought it was smart.

I guess, as a former OB/GYN, he'd know better than most on how far one can fit one's head up one's own ass.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:35 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:31 pmThe sewage data is likely a better predictor of that than tests being run - can't overload the wastewater system.

Please don't tempt fate... We don't need that right now.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:37 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:31 pm The sewage data is likely a better predictor of that than tests being run - can't overload the wastewater system.

You know nothing, John Snow.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:40 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:31 pm

The ultimate impact for hospitals is still coming, but yes, hopefully cases have peaked. The sewage data is likely a better predictor of that than tests being run - can't overload the wastewater system.

Unless some people are starting to save/use their waste in an attempt to "cure" covid.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:46 pm

Cannabinoids Block Cellular Entry of SARS-CoV-2 and the Emerging Variants.

Don't get all excited, folks. If Twitter is telling me the truth (and when has it ever lied?), heating the cannabinoids (such as by smoking or turning them into anything but raw edibles) erases the effect.

This has me interested, though, because:

https://twitter.com/TomSpeed420/status/ ... 5356989444

Spoiler:

Epidiolex is used to fight rare types of childhood epilepsy (Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome, Dravet Syndrome, tuberous sclerosis complex), so the sample size here is likely pretty small. My son has LGS, though, and has been taking Epidiolex for a few years now. Hoping this is providing him with an extra level of protection!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:19 pm

The irony of this being published on 538 is not lost on me.

https://twitter.com/maggiekb1/status/14 ... 4322781191

In the gap left by the CDC, Americans are turning to Twitter, blogs, and word of mouth for their COVID risk reduction advice. The result is a black market of information that makes it even harder to make the right choice.