SCOTUS Watch

[malchior]

Oh, Biden just picks one that is then approved/not? Hmm.

Yes. If there's a vacancy in the VP then the president nominates a new VP, who needs to be confirmed by majority vote of the House and Senate.

One question is whether the Senate confirmation is subject to filibuster. If it is, then that idea is even more of a non-starter than I thought.

Also in this situation there is no tie breaker so you need a R potentially.

[malchior]

We'll have to wait for the shoe to drop but in of course the Republicans have a card to play...apparently there is a chance that the Republicans will be able to block a replacement justice. If the judiciary committee deadlocks 11-11 then it goes on a path that is indeed at threat of the filibuster. At that point, it'll be pressure again on Manchin/Sinema to change the rule.

Let's see if this happens. I have to think that with a 6-3 edge they won't risk turning this into something even worse than we are dealing with.

Time

There’s one major problem facing Biden’s prospects, though: he might not be able to win confirmation for the expected pick. So much of influence in Washington isn’t in the press conferences or performative turns on cable news. The real power comes from mastering the process by which it is transferred, accumulated and defended. And, when it comes to managing a generational shift of power in America’s judicial system, no one has proven more adept than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie. So far, so good, given past Senators have changed the rules for judicial nominees to get across the finish line with just 51 votes. The so-called nuclear option is meant as a last resort, but with the exception of Chief Justice John Roberts, none of the current conservative Justices cleared a 60-vote benchmark.

But the nuclear option can go into motion only if the Judiciary Committee reports the nomination to the floor, a procedural move that says whether a majority on the committee recommends the full Senate consider the pick. Well, in a little-noticed backroom deal that took more than a month to hammer out, McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer agreed to a power-sharing plan in February that splits committee membership, staffs and budgets in half. (A full nonpartisan analysis from the Congressional Research Service regarding the current process for nominees is here.)

Why does this matter? If all 11 Republican members of the Judiciary Committee oppose Biden’s pick and all 11 Democrats back her, the nomination goes inert. (A pretty safe bet in a committee where at least half of the Republican members have White House ambitions of their own.) The nomination doesn’t die, but it does get parked until a lawmaker—historically, the Leader of the party—brings it to the floor for four hours of debate.

A majority of the Senate—51 votes, typically—can then put debate about the issue on the calendar for the next day. But that’s the last easy part. When the potential pick comes to the floor again, it’s not as a nomination. At that point, it’s a motion to discharge, a cloture motion that requires 60 votes. In other words, 10 Republicans would have to resurrect the nomination of someone already blocked in the Judiciary Committee.

[malchior]

GOP members of the Judiciary Committee for reference:

Chuck Grassley
Lindsay Graham
John Cornyn
Mike Lee
Ted Cruz
Ben Sasse
Josh Hawley
Tom Cottom
John Kennedy
Thom Tillis
Marsha Blackburn

The only hope there is Sasse. Cue the grinning turtle photo. Grim times ahead.

[Smoove_B]

It's almost like they anticipated needing to obstruct a nomination and stacked the deck. Imagine that.

[LordMortis]

GOP members of the Judiciary Committee for reference:

Chuck Grassley
Lindsay Graham
John Cornyn
Mike Lee
Ted Cruz
Ben Sasse
Josh Hawley
Tom Cottom
John Kennedy
Thom Tillis
Marsha Blackburn

The only hope there is Sasse. Cue the grinning turtle photo. Grim times ahead.

That's a who's who of human garbage risen to power. And honestly I don't know much about Tillis or Sasse. They've escaped my radar.

[Skinypupy]

GOP members of the Judiciary Committee for reference:

Chuck Grassley
Lindsay Graham
John Cornyn
Mike Lee
Ted Cruz
Ben Sasse
Josh Hawley
Tom Cottom
John Kennedy
Thom Tillis
Marsha Blackburn

The only hope there is Sasse. Cue the grinning turtle photo. Grim times ahead.

That's a who's who of human garbage risen to power.

Sheesh, you ain’t kidding.

[malchior]

For all we know, this might be anticipated hence why Breyer announced now with the caveat he wouldn't leave until a successor is named. I don't think things are that organized on the Democratic side. This doesn't have the same feel of Kennedy strategically retiring.

That being said, I want to believe that they'll move someone forward because I don't know what happens if they block another SCOTUS nominee in the same year they overturn Roe, block all paths to deal with the pandemic, de facto legalize political bribery, etc.

[LordMortis]

Don't forget about the last two years of complaining about "stacking the supreme court" which apparently does not mean what I think it means.

[Smoove_B]

I say Biden should take the Gillette route and say fuck everything, I'm going to nominate 5 Justices.

[YellowKing]

And honestly I don't know much about Tillis

All you need to know about Tillis is that he's a Republican from North Carolina, which means he's a corrupt son of a bitch, and he's a Trump ally.

*Note - my classification of all NC Republican representatives as corrupt is more for the state level, but I'm going to apply it to everyone until they prove otherwise.

[malchior]

Aside from Sasse they are hardcore MAGA. Sasse played at being a #NeverTrumper for a little while but cue 'I don't believe you'.gif

[Blackhawk]

Oh, Biden just picks one that is then approved/not? Hmm.

Yes. If there's a vacancy in the VP then the president nominates a new VP, who needs to be confirmed by majority vote of the House and Senate. \

Just have Biden go behind the curtain, tie SC nomination and the voting reforms together and offer a deal: Pass both, and he nominates Mitch McConnell for VP.

[Alefroth]

A SCOTUS confirmation battle during a midterm fight during a pandemic during a possible European war during a potential government shutdown during key domestic legislative wrangling LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I wonder who would make it a battle?

[malchior]

Well one thing is clear this nomination is going to be a historic shit show. Though the phrasing '(anything related to politics in the USA) is going to be a historic shit show' is probably evergreen now.





Bill Kristol of all people properly sets some context here to point out the coming hypocrisy train coming our way.

[El Guapo]

Fun fact: Ilya Shapiro worked at my old firm when I was a summer associate there. You're not going to believe this, but he was an ass.

[malchior]

Fun fact: Ilya Shapiro worked at my old firm when I was a summer associate there. You're not going to believe this, but he was an ass.

When he was hired by Georgetown it caused quite a kerfuffle because he is generally known as an ass but apparently that plus this type of known overtly racist behavior comes with elite rewards nowadays. If you go down the rabbit hole - which I don't recommend -- a very white, very pompous guy rode to this racist's defense and belittled Vladeck alleging he was just jealous because he is only at U of Texas Law. It is no wonder populism is surging.

[El Guapo]

Fun fact: Ilya Shapiro worked at my old firm when I was a summer associate there. You're not going to believe this, but he was an ass.

When he was hired by Georgetown it caused quite a kerfuffle because he is generally known as an ass but apparently that plus this type of known overtly racist behavior comes with elite rewards nowadays. If you go down the rabbit hole - which I don't recommend -- a very white, very pompous guy rode to this racist's defense and belittled Vladeck alleging he was just jealous because he is only at U of Texas Law. It is no wonder populism is surging.

I think prestigious law schools like to have at least one prominent outspoken prestigious conservative on their faculty (to balance the otherwise 98% liberal faculty). Unfortunately I can't really argue that Ilya Shapiro qualifies as a "prestigious outspoken conservative" these days.

[malchior]

Fun fact: Ilya Shapiro worked at my old firm when I was a summer associate there. You're not going to believe this, but he was an ass.

When he was hired by Georgetown it caused quite a kerfuffle because he is generally known as an ass but apparently that plus this type of known overtly racist behavior comes with elite rewards nowadays. If you go down the rabbit hole - which I don't recommend -- a very white, very pompous guy rode to this racist's defense and belittled Vladeck alleging he was just jealous because he is only at U of Texas Law. It is no wonder populism is surging.

I think prestigious law schools like to have at least one prominent outspoken prestigious conservative on their faculty (to balance the otherwise 98% liberal faculty). Unfortunately I can't really argue that Ilya Shapiro qualifies as a "prestigious outspoken conservative" these days.

Yeah it pains me to remember that GW has Jonathan Turley in the same 'slot'. The inside the beltway law schools are solidly knocking it out of the park.

[malchior]

[Alefroth]

Those two guys.

[Holman]

To be fair, Biden's wiping the court clean and replacing it with nine radical black feminists *is* a bit unbalanced.

[malchior]

Fun fact: Ilya Shapiro worked at my old firm when I was a summer associate there. You're not going to believe this, but he was an ass.

When he was hired by Georgetown it caused quite a kerfuffle because he is generally known as an ass but apparently that plus this type of known overtly racist behavior comes with elite rewards nowadays. If you go down the rabbit hole - which I don't recommend -- a very white, very pompous guy rode to this racist's defense and belittled Vladeck alleging he was just jealous because he is only at U of Texas Law. It is no wonder populism is surging.

I think prestigious law schools like to have at least one prominent outspoken prestigious conservative on their faculty (to balance the otherwise 98% liberal faculty). Unfortunately I can't really argue that Ilya Shapiro qualifies as a "prestigious outspoken conservative" these days.

I missed it earlier but he's been placed on administrative leave. Of course, this is being painted as cancel culture and violations of 1A rights.

[Zarathud]

Ted Cruz is 0% of the US population. President Biden is saying he doesn’t give a fuck about Ted Cruz. Or the Zodiac Killer.

[Kurth]

Also, did Lyin’ Ted really just have the nerve to invoke the name of Merick Garland?

[dbt1949]

I must admit I would want the best person on the bench. If that's a black woman okay, any kind of any other minority okay, white man/woman okay. Trump....not okay.
But I also know that's not the way the world works so a black woman it shall be! And no gripes from me. (unless I don't like her views)

[Zarathud]

There are over a hundred qualified attorneys, and each team picks from their own bench. After Trump, Ted Cruz has nothing to complain about the Democrats choosing anyone they want. Kavanaugh and Barrett were not the most qualified picks from the conservative team.

[El Guapo]

Fun fact: Ilya Shapiro worked at my old firm when I was a summer associate there. You're not going to believe this, but he was an ass.

When he was hired by Georgetown it caused quite a kerfuffle because he is generally known as an ass but apparently that plus this type of known overtly racist behavior comes with elite rewards nowadays. If you go down the rabbit hole - which I don't recommend -- a very white, very pompous guy rode to this racist's defense and belittled Vladeck alleging he was just jealous because he is only at U of Texas Law. It is no wonder populism is surging.

I think prestigious law schools like to have at least one prominent outspoken prestigious conservative on their faculty (to balance the otherwise 98% liberal faculty). Unfortunately I can't really argue that Ilya Shapiro qualifies as a "prestigious outspoken conservative" these days.

I missed it earlier but he's been placed on administrative leave. Of course, this is being painted as cancel culture and violations of 1A rights.

I have no sympathy for Ilya Shapiro, but Georgetown isn't exactly covering itself in glory here. If they're genuinely shocked by this...did they do no research before they hired the guy?

Second, the pause to "investigate" is pretty funny. What is there to investigate? He said what he said. You either think that's a deal killer or you don't.

[malchior]

I have no sympathy for Ilya Shapiro, but Georgetown isn't exactly covering itself in glory here. If they're genuinely shocked by this...did they do no research before they hired the guy?

Especially since he made similar comments about Sotomayor. In the end, I wish this was just a Georgetown problem. We have a problem that conservatives of all stripes have largely gone off the rails but these institutions keep thinking they bought the unicorn sane one.

Second, the pause to "investigate" is pretty funny. What is there to investigate? He said what he said. You either think that's a deal killer or you don't.

Yeah - it's a little absurd. Either you can him and people think it was bullshit or they keep him and people think it's bullshit. Rip off the damn band aid and deal with it.

[El Guapo]

I'm inclined to think that the purpose of the "investigation" is just to see whether the outrage dies down, and if it does they'll slap him on the wrist and tell him not to do it again.

[pr0ner]

Ted Cruz tweeted that Candace Owens should be nominated to. SCOTUS, so you can tell how seriously he's taking the process.

[Jaymann]

Ted Cruz tweeted that Candace Owens should be nominated to. SCOTUS, so you can tell how seriously he's taking the process.

Apparently Aunt Jemima wasn't available.

[Kurth]

Ted Cruz tweeted that Candace Owens should be nominated to. SCOTUS, so you can tell how seriously he's taking the process.

When did Cruz become such an expert troll? I wonder who's running his twitter account.

[stessier]

Ted Cruz tweeted that Candace Owens should be nominated to. SCOTUS, so you can tell how seriously he's taking the process.

When did Cruz become such an expert troll? I wonder who's running his twitter account.

Devin Nunes' cow?

[Unagi]

Maybe they could get Anita Hill, and then see if another seat suddenly frees up.

[malchior]

A VRA case that was too radical for Roberts? Good times.

[malchior]

The politicized majority doesn't like it when their political conduct is called out. If they granted review but left the ruling to stand for now it'd be one thing. However another way to read this is that they overturned the district court ruling without evaluating the merits. If the case has merit then they've enabled the harm that the lawsuit was filed to prevent for the 2022 election.

[malchior]

Breaking news from several sources - grabbed one but there are more.

[Unagi]

You don’t seat a new judge in the middle of a protracted land war in Eastern Europe.

[Carpet_pissr]

You don’t seat a new judge in the middle of a protracted land war in Eastern Europe.

HA!

[coopasonic]

Unagi is actually McConnell? Hmmmmm... things are starting to come together.