Ukraine

[xwraith]

Damn

[Daehawk]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/0 ... ad-vpx.cnn

This CNN reporter was told Ukraine had control of an airport so they went there and were stopped at a gate check point. He asked who was in control and was told Russians were. He asked where are the Russians and the guy said WE are the Russians and then he noticed their badges. Wow.

[malchior]

"Christian nationalist"

[Daehawk]

I think Putin has stepped in it this time. Hope the anti American GOP go down with him. Perhaps Russia is about to fall apart again.

Also this...

[LawBeefaroni]

This makes me cry every time I see it:

Not much gets me but that did. Also have to wonder if I could do the same.

[dbt1949]

Over the last week or two the Ukrainian president has been playing down the Russians poised at his borders and saying Biden was overlyworrying of the possibility of a Russian attack.
Now of course he's yelling RAPE!

[Holman]

There have been lots of reports today of very low Russian morale. Once you get past the well-trained tip-of-the-spear commando types, Russia's is a conscript army. Ukrainian media is reporting low morale among captured Russians, with many of them bitter that they've been ordered to fight Ukrainians (who are, according to long Russian tradition, their brother nation).

[Max Peck]

Over the last week or two the Ukrainian president has been playing down the Russians poised at his borders and saying Biden was overlyworrying of the possibility of a Russian attack.

He was trying to keep his own civilian population from panicking.

[Default]

Two thoughts.
How old is Vlad?
How hard is this going to push Europeans into alternative energy sources when they are investing in EVs?
What is Russia going to do for hard currency when oil/natural gas isn't in demand as a fuel?

[Holman]

Two thoughts.
How old is Vlad?

He's 69 and extremely paranoid about his health, so he probably expects another decade or more in office.

One thing I don't know is whether he has a protege lined up. I listened to an interview with a long-time Russia correspondent the other day, and he talked about the general sense (among off-the-record Russian officials and diplomats) that Putin's circle has been shrinking for years. There's no one left who doesn't tell him only what he wants to hear.

We're probably looking at a Death Of Stalin power struggle when Putin collapses or falls out a window.

How hard is this going to push Europeans into alternative energy sources when they are investing in EVs?
What is Russia going to do for hard currency when oil/natural gas isn't in demand as a fuel?

The oligarchs have *immense* wealth stashed everywhere it will fit. They'll ride out the collapse of the Russian economy and then decamp to safer climes (probably China) when it all falls apart.

[Kurth]

Two thoughts.
How old is Vlad?
How hard is this going to push Europeans into alternative energy sources when they are investing in EVs?
What is Russia going to do for hard currency when oil/natural gas isn't in demand as a fuel?

I'll add one more:

Russia has the natural gas lever they can pull, but after that . . . What do they really have?

You know what you're not hearing at most major companies throughout the world right now? What about our access to Russian markets? Cause no one really gives a shit about access to Russian markets. They don't move the needle. Russia isn't China. Not by a long shot.

Kind of makes me wonder what Putin's long game is here.

[Isgrimnur]

GDP of:
California $3.12 trillion
Texas $1.77 trillion
Russia $1.71 trillion
New York $1.71 trillion

[LawBeefaroni]

GDP of:
California $3.12 trillion
Texas $1.77 trillion
Russia $1.71 trillion
New York $1.71 trillion

Which means China is plenty big enough.

Why a swift economic victory against Russia looks unlikely

Be ready for a long haul. That was the subtext of Boris Johnson’s message to MPs as he committed to toughening up sanctions against Russia.

The warning to prepare for a “protracted struggle” was both timely and appropriate. There will be no quick knockout blow because Vladimir Putin has had time to prepare and is well dug-in.

...


Firstly, Putin has been actively seeking to insulate Russia from the west ever since the invasion of the Crimea in 2014. Western imports of meat, fruit, vegetables and dairy were banned when sanctions were imposed.

Secondly, self-sufficiency has been accompanied by an attempt at diversification, with a deliberate policy pivot towards China. An agreement with Beijing – again in 2014 – paved the way for the construction of the Power of Siberia – a gas pipeline linking the two countries that opened in 2019.

China is the world’s second-biggest economy and its heavy demand for energy has been one of the factor pushing up global energy prices over the past year. Putin has already given approval for Power of Siberia 2.

Thirdly, Russia has used the money received from its oil and gas exports to build up substantial financial defences. Moscow is sitting on foreign currency reserves of about $500bn (£369bn) and, by international standards, has extremely low levels of national debt. Whereas the pandemic has sent the UK’s national debt to GDP ratio spiralling above 100%, in Russia it is below 20%.

I said it earlier. Sanctions aren't enough. There are two paths to defeating Russia in the short term. Either Ukraine extracts a heavy toll militarily or the west wages unfettered economic warfare. Like cutting off SWIFT and cyber attacks. We're too scared, probably rightfully so, to go with plan B so fingers crossed that the Ukrainians can execute plan A. Unfortunately that means a lot of bodies.

[Grifman]

Putin just needed a mother that loved him:

[stimpy]

Over the last week or two the Ukrainian president has been playing down the Russians poised at his borders and saying Biden was overlyworrying of the possibility of a Russian attack.

He was trying to keep his own civilian population from panicking.

How did that work out for him?

[Daehawk]

[raydude]

Damn

BBC has a bit more info on this.

Apparently, only 13 border guards were on the island. That takes a lot of balls.

[LordMortis]

This is probably a stupid question, but with assassination being a primary political tool of the Putin regime, how is he still alive? One would think with assassination as an on the table constant, that assassination and terrorism would be a an issue for the Kremlin and specifically something their president would be subject to.

[dbt1949]

Well, it looks to be a short war. At least they put up a fight unlike Afghanistan.

[Unagi]

Well, it looks to be a short war. At least they put up a fight unlike Afghanistan.

Sarcasm? Or am I missing a key word.

[malchior]

They are certainly trying to put up a fight but this is what happens when you mobilize *after* you've been surrounded by the enemy.

[dbt1949]

I was surprised at how fast Russia is progressing.
Russians are already at Kyiv's doorstep. Media is treating that like it's going to be the end of organized fighting. We'll see.

[malchior]

I was surprised at how fast Russia is progressing.
Russians are already at Kyiv's doorstep. Media is treating that like it's going to be the end of organized fighting. We'll see.

Ukraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.

Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.

[malchior]

Did anyone have recklessly advancing Russians kick up radioactive dust due to their rapid advanced with heavy machinery on their bingo card?

[dbt1949]

I was surprised at how fast Russia is progressing.
Russians are already at Kyiv's doorstep. Media is treating that like it's going to be the end of organized fighting. We'll see.

Ukraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.

Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.

200 or more miles in one day by an advancing army is a lot.
Zelensky should have stayed in comedy.

[LordMortis]

Did anyone have recklessly advancing Russians kick up radioactive dust due to their rapid advanced with heavy machinery on their bingo card?

Once I heard they were actively shelling the area as an easy point of entry I placed a wager there.

[malchior]

I was surprised at how fast Russia is progressing.
Russians are already at Kyiv's doorstep. Media is treating that like it's going to be the end of organized fighting. We'll see.

Ukraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.

Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.

200 or more miles in one day by an advancing army is a lot.
Zelensky should have stayed in comedy.

I said it before. He is seen as completely overmatched. The US was telling him the invasion was imminent and it looks like he didn't even set up a line of defense off the border to protect their capital. They are literally pouring guns onto the streets and handing them out to civilians right now to defend the capital. I give them points for heart but that's about it.

Edit: I'll also say they've got nearly everyone on their side except for you know actual support. With stories about the 'Ghost of Kyiv' - credited with 6 kills in a Mig-29, taking back the Hostomel airport, and Snake Island, they are building a strong idea that they will fiercely defend no matter how the initial days go.

[Little Raven]

Well, it looks to be a short war.

It took the US just 26 days to completely dismantle the government of Iraq back in 2003.

This is just getting started.

[Unagi]

I was surprised at how fast Russia is progressing.
Russians are already at Kyiv's doorstep. Media is treating that like it's going to be the end of organized fighting. We'll see.

Ok but what then do you mean about Afghanistan?

If I understand my history, Russia left there, more-or-less defeated. You wrote that Afghanistan didn’t put up a fight against the Russians

[$iljanus]

My brother in law (American who married a Ukrainian) who lives in western Ukraine said they bombed the local airport. His eldest daughter is in college in the US but he’s now trying to get my other niece over the border to Poland to get her stateside with family. Part of the reason why Ukrainians were a little nonchalant up to the invasion is because they have been living under threat since 2014 with the incursions, cyberwarfare, Russian induced power outages, etc. But from his perspective of someone who has lived through the Orange Revolution which overthrew the Russian installed stooge back in the early 2000s any invader will be hard pressed to control the country. It’s not a perfect democracy but it’s their democracy and they will spill their blood and Russian blood for it. They are not a soft people.

[malchior]

Tom Nichols was making the point on MSNBC that Putin seemed to be detached from reality here. He was remarking that this is a country of 40M people who have overthrown dictators before. Why would installing a new regime work. He said it is possible Putin will install bases but there is no reason to think they'll be able to stay peacefully even if they do that. Nichols seemed to indicate that no one really understands the long-term plan beyond the invasion that would realistically work. I guess we'll see if some grand strategy emerges.

[YellowKing]

I thought this was a great piece re: the myth of Putin's strategic genius. Something I've been 100% guilty of indulging as well. Perhaps we stop looking at this as part of some hidden master plan that Putin has, and more as the desperate fumblings of a deranged fool.

[Dogstar]

I was surprised at how fast Russia is progressing.
Russians are already at Kyiv's doorstep. Media is treating that like it's going to be the end of organized fighting. We'll see.

Ukraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.

Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.

200 or more miles in one day by an advancing army is a lot.
Zelensky should have stayed in comedy.

I said it before. He is seen as completely overmatched. The US was telling him the invasion was imminent and it looks like he didn't even set up a line of defense off the border to protect their capital. They are literally pouring guns onto the streets and handing them out to civilians right now to defend the capital. I give them points for heart but that's about it.

Edit: I'll also say they've got nearly everyone on their side except for you know actual support. With stories about the 'Ghost of Kyiv' - credited with 6 kills in a Mig-29, taking back the Hostomel airport, and Snake Island, they are building a strong idea that they will fiercely defend no matter how the initial days go.

To be fair to Zelensky, he was probably holding out hope that this could be avoided. If he mobilized, Russia portrays Ukraine as a threat and convinces a few more people that their actions are justified. If he doesn't, maybe his country doesn't get invaded -- but he risks being behind the eight ball in terms of defense.

[malchior]

To be fair to Zelensky, he was probably holding out hope that this could be avoided. If he mobilized, Russia portrays Ukraine as a threat and convinces a few more people that their actions are justified. If he doesn't, maybe his country doesn't get invaded -- but he risks being behind the eight ball in terms of defense.

I'm sure that was the calculation. I'm just following the people talking about this and sort of surprised by his passivity. I'm also sure it plays into the Russian threat was ever present theme and maybe this is a consequence of Trump and loss of prestige in American intelligence. Maybe Zelensky was like...alright bros...but in any case it remains to be seen how the defense holds up.

[LawBeefaroni]

Side note, this is probably the most significant European conflict in the age of rampant social media. Propaganda is going to be lightning fast.

Example (NSFL video):

TRANSLATION:

*i am a native Russian speaker:

On 24 February, around 10-11 hours we ended up here. Here is the body of my mom, and here is the body of the soldier who was attempting to protect us. Then Russian soldiers starting shooting us. I was laying down right here *points where she was laying down. *points to road There were russian tanks and Russian soldiers over there and Russian soldiers started shooting. Well here we came with my father trying to get home.

*edit, more information

From what I gather, the dead soldier is a Russian soldier who was trying to prevent friendly fire.

Source: the following translated text from a post made by the victim on her Instagram

It was a Russian soldier

We went to the city to withdraw money and buy food, returning home at the exit from Kharkiv, Russian tanks blocked the road, they fired at our car, we turned into a dead end and jumped out of the car, two guys jumped out to meet us, Russian soldiers, young, 18-20 years old .. who could barely held their weapons. .... We stayed there for 15 minutes, then they started shooting at us .. My mother was wounded in the arm, I heard her scream in pain .. And at that time a soldier threw me to the ground and shouted many times do not shoot ... They are ours ... He yelled at the Russian soldiers, don't shoot.. Heavy shooting began.. A dead soldier fell on me.. The second one was also shot... But my mother was silent... I got up and understood that she was dead.. She was hit in the head. .. I was left alone. They were shooting all around me, I grabbed my papers, etc. I hiding behind an iron booth

Note: "propaganda" isn't a judgement of veracity or validity of the information.

[Kraken]

Well, it looks to be a short war.

It took the US just 26 days to completely dismantle the government of Iraq back in 2003.

This is just getting started.

It was a foregone conclusion that Russia would take Kiev and decapitate the government. Whether that takes a day or a week or even a month is immaterial except to those who have to suffer and die in the process. The big question is what happens after that. Does Putin try to garrison the country? How much power does he have to project, and for how long, to enforce his puppet regime? 200,000 troops to occupy a country the size of Texas isn't a lot, if that country is determined to resist and receiving outside help. Or does he install his minions, declare victory and go home, satisfied with expelling the pro-Western democracy on his doorstep? Or (unlikely) does he steamroll to the borders of the Baltics while Ukraine is still in chaos?

We don't know Putin's gameplan. Events probably won't follow it.

[$iljanus]

Stark differences between a professional standing army and a conscript army which may be pivotal in the coming weeks. From a WaPo story.

BELGOROD, Russia — Russian conscripts are being forced into signing contracts and taken to serve in Ukraine amid a large-scale attack, human rights group the Committee of the Soldier’s Mothers told The Washington Post in an interview on Friday.
“Issue number one right now, eight out of 10 calls that we get are about the same question: ‘Is my child alive? Where is he?’" said Andrey Kurochkin, the organization’s deputy head.
Russia has mandatory one-year-long military service for all men under the age of 27. According to Russian regulations, conscripts can be sent to a combat zone no earlier than four months into their training. The Committee says it received a barrage of calls saying some conscripts barely served two months and are unprepared for the battlefield.
Kurochkin explains that, according to their mothers, some of the conscripts thought they were heading toward the Ukrainian border for drills, which is how Russia explained its massive buildup for weeks. “Then they are being told: now you are contractors,” he said. “And everyone’s phones are being taken away, while moms are crying and in panic.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense previously denied that it was sending conscripts to war zones. But parents seeking legal help from the committee say that their sons were being coerced or misled into signing up for contracted service.
Before Russian troops went into Ukraine, a local outlet in the Belgorod region posted a picture of over 100 Russian soldiers sleeping on the floor of a small train station in Veselaya Lopan village, about 40 miles from the Ukrainian city Kharkiv.
The Committee of the Soldier’s Mothers at the time voiced concerns about the lack of food and poor conditions the soldiers had to live in as they waited there. Conflict Intelligence Team, an open intelligence group monitoring Russian military activities, said in a statement on Telegram that sending conscripts en masse into a battle zone is “unprecedented since the 2008 war with Georgia.”
The committee also said it recently began receiving calls from students who have official deferral from active service while completing their studies, “but now they are being summoned to the military enlistment offices, and there are some efforts to persuade them to sign a contract,” Kurochkin added.

Could be very problematic for Putin domestically when Russian conscripts start coming home in body bags.

[Holman]

To be fair to Zelensky, he was probably holding out hope that this could be avoided. If he mobilized, Russia portrays Ukraine as a threat and convinces a few more people that their actions are justified. If he doesn't, maybe his country doesn't get invaded -- but he risks being behind the eight ball in terms of defense.

I'm sure that was the calculation. I'm just following the people talking about this and sort of surprised by his passivity. I'm also sure it plays into the Russian threat was ever present theme and maybe this is a consequence of Trump and loss of prestige in American intelligence. Maybe Zelensky was like...alright bros...but in any case it remains to be seen how the defense holds up.

Do we know that they *didn't* prepare? I thought I heard that reserves were called up and equipment was readied. They certainly didn't have time to increase the size of their military, but they weren't caught with their tanks in storage and their troops on leave. Plus they were handing out thousands of firearms to willing civilians on the first day of the invasion, something that presumably takes a while to organize.

My impression is that they are of course a much smaller military than what Russia has set against them, but they weren't caught with their pants down.

[LawBeefaroni]

Could be very problematic for Putin domestically when Russian conscripts start coming home in body bags.

By many accounts several won't be coming home at all. The conscript forces are unprofessional and unorganized and aren't great about retrieving bodies. There are also unproven reports of their mobile crematoriums being used to avoid the whole body bag thing.

[Smoove_B]

I'm guessing things at ground level are going to start escalating.

Grozny, Chechnya

Thousands of Chechen fighters (loyalists to Kadyrov) are heading to fight in Ukraine. Kadyrov is one of Putin’s most loyal men, and he is an icon for militant Islamists.

Wiki:

The Kadyrovtsy has been criticized of being Ramzan Kadyrov's private army, and is accused of committing widespread human rights abuses such as kidnapping, forced disappearances, torture and murder. Critics claim the Kadyrovtsy use extrajudicial punishment to cement Kadyrov's autocratic rule, and now surpass jihadist insurgents as the most feared organization among Chechnya's civilian population.