Ukraine

[Isgrimnur]

gorilla style warfare

[Daehawk]

[$iljanus]

Putin said cutting off SWIFT would be equivalent to an act of war. The US is still reluctant to use it because of that. It's the nuclear option of economic warfare.

The UK back on board on recent days from what I understand so there is more pressure to use it. My hunch is that certain US financial interested are pressing hard against it. It won't happen without US approval.

I also read that one of the reasons Germany was reluctant was because if Russia had no way to be paid then there’s no reason for them to keep supplying gas to Germany. And I suppose sending crates of Euros would be a little cumbersome.

[Jaymann]

Putin said cutting off SWIFT would be equivalent to an act of war. The US is still reluctant to use it because of that. It's the nuclear option of economic warfare.

The UK back on board on recent days from what I understand so there is more pressure to use it. My hunch is that certain US financial interested are pressing hard against it. It won't happen without US approval.

I also read that one of the reasons Germany was reluctant was because if Russia had no way to be paid then there’s no reason for them to keep supplying gas to Germany. And I suppose sending crates of Euros would be a little cumbersome.

They could use gorillas to carry them.

[Holman]

It's my fear we will see nuclear strikes soon and we are well on the way to WW3. What's to stop Putin? The nuclear theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? Nothing is off limits I fear with him. I actually want the US/NATO to get involved because that's the only way this is going to stop. Unless an internal option stops Putin, this is going to get real bad and could hit WW 3. Who's next? Bulgaria? Poland?

I'm actually pretty optimistic that this won't go nuclear. Putin is a vicious thug, but he likes being in power and he likes being alive. The Russian officer corps also likes being alive. The most likely result of his ordering a nuclear strike is a military refusal and a coup.

[Defiant]

[Defiant]

[Isgrimnur]

If you Airborne when you're supposed to SEAD, you're going to have a bad time.

[Defiant]

[Holman]

How unlikely is it that we have armed CIA or special forces on the ground in Ukraine?

In the past (1980s Afghanistan, 1990s ex-Yugoslavia, 2000s Syria etc), providing high-tech weapons to resistance fighters has always meant clandestine advisors along with them.

[Daehawk]

How unlikely is it that we have armed CIA or special forces on the ground in Ukraine?

In the past (1980s Afghanistan, 1990s ex-Yugoslavia, 2000s Syria etc), providing high-tech weapons to resistance fighters has always meant clandestine advisors along with them.

[Holman]

Crowd-sourced map of reported events. (Take it for what you will.)

[$iljanus]

How unlikely is it that we have armed CIA or special forces on the ground in Ukraine?

In the past (1980s Afghanistan, 1990s ex-Yugoslavia, 2000s Syria etc), providing high-tech weapons to resistance fighters has always meant clandestine advisors along with them.

So the Pentagon issued a statement that all special operations personnel have evacuated the country when we closed the consulate in Kyiv. They were probably there to train the Ukrainian army in the use of the equipment we’ve been giving them. Most likely us and other countries have had advisors in Ukraine after 2014 to help improve the quality of their standing army so I think they are going to be well versed in the use of the higher tech anti armor/air ordinance.

Now I did wonder earlier if we perhaps may have small numbers of personnel coordinating the secure flow of intelligence from NATO/US assets to the Ukrainian military? I think these are the sort of operations that really don’t get any press.

[Newcastle]

It's my fear we will see nuclear strikes soon and we are well on the way to WW3. What's to stop Putin? The nuclear theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? Nothing is off limits I fear with him. I actually want the US/NATO to get involved because that's the only way this is going to stop. Unless an internal option stops Putin, this is going to get real bad and could hit WW 3. Who's next? Bulgaria? Poland?

I'm actually pretty optimistic that this won't go nuclear. Putin is a vicious thug, but he likes being in power and he likes being alive. The Russian officer corps also likes being alive. The most likely result of his ordering a nuclear strike is a military refusal and a coup.

If putin gets boxed in and he has no way out...what's stopping him from going nuclear?...a kind of fuck you to the world? Most of the world hoped his military exercises were a bluff. Obviously they weren't. He's shrugging off sanctions as if they are no big deal. He's prepared to go far.
I'd expect and plan for the worst. I would hope that an internal method could neutralize him. He's been willing to use poison on enemies, assassanite opposition, throw missiles at apartment buildings, use cluster bombs in civilian areas [banned by international law]. He's also reminded us that if we got involved we'd experience something we've never experienced bother....we've endured blackouts, catastrophes, but not nuclear detonation on US homeland.

I am heartened to hear Turkey's condemnation because they sit at the crossroads of continental powers [ geography intersects them w/ asia, middle east, africa, russia & the west. ]

[malchior]

It's my fear we will see nuclear strikes soon and we are well on the way to WW3. What's to stop Putin? The nuclear theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? Nothing is off limits I fear with him. I actually want the US/NATO to get involved because that's the only way this is going to stop. Unless an internal option stops Putin, this is going to get real bad and could hit WW 3. Who's next? Bulgaria? Poland?

I'm actually pretty optimistic that this won't go nuclear. Putin is a vicious thug, but he likes being in power and he likes being alive. The Russian officer corps also likes being alive. The most likely result of his ordering a nuclear strike is a military refusal and a coup.

This!

Also Putin doesn't have enough forces to take on NATO. Not even close.

On the Russian politics front, a few Kremlinologists were positing that a coup in Russia is probably more likely now. US intelligence and our unmasking of all their bullshit plans led to him dropping his unhinged rants that basically showed Europe they were dealing with a madman. He shored up NATO, probably encouraged hold outs on several issues to accept pain now versus keeping their head in the sand, and exposed Russia to extreme blow back at home. It's early to say any of that will matter but early signs are that Putin made a huge error here.

[Little Raven]

How unlikely is it that we have armed CIA or special forces on the ground in Ukraine?

That the CIA has assets deployed in Ukraine is virtually guaranteed. If nothing else, we've got guys on the ground observing the Russian capabilities up close.

But I suspect we've got people actively engaged in causing mischief for the Soviets. Not that we'll learn anything about them for another 20 years.

[Daehawk]

Russian missile strike hit Ukrainian apartment building.

[Archinerd]

My understanding is that nobody needs to be convinced, they just need to get the infrastructure in place so that when Russia is cut off from SWIFT it doesn't hurt them more than it hurts Russia.

It's not infrastructure, it's unwinding all kinds of financial relationships. It's tranactional. They can isolate Russian banks with a switch flip, essentially. Non-Russian institutions need time to extract themselves from the Russian side of the cutoff. But the longer it takes, the more Russian interests can do the same.


If you hold Russian debt, for example, you'd be screwed.

Yeah, I didn't mean roads, wires, or pipes, just "financial infrastructure". My word, since I don't really understand it.
Oh, and energy infrastructure (or short term supply chain more likely), because as I understand it, the fear is natural gas supply will likely be cut off to Germany.

So, "infrastructure" in a broad non-specific sense.

[paulbaxter]

I'm actually pretty optimistic that this won't go nuclear. Putin is a vicious thug, but he likes being in power and he likes being alive. The Russian officer corps also likes being alive. The most likely result of his ordering a nuclear strike is a military refusal and a coup.

This!

Also Putin doesn't have enough forces to take on NATO. Not even close.

On the Russian politics front, a few Kremlinologists were positing that a coup in Russia is probably more likely now. US intelligence and our unmasking of all their bullshit plans led to him dropping his unhinged rants that basically showed Europe they were dealing with a madman. He shored up NATO, probably encouraged hold outs on several issues to accept pain now versus keeping their head in the sand, and exposed Russia to extreme blow back at home. It's early to say any of that will matter but early signs are that Putin made a huge error here.
[/quote]

This sounds like the happiest possible outcome. I wouldn't have any sort of speculation about how likely it is, but I know that Putin has, since the moment he entered office, held VERY tight control over top level politics in Russia, so I do wonder exactly how and who would execute any sort of coup.

[Newcastle]

It's my fear we will see nuclear strikes soon and we are well on the way to WW3. What's to stop Putin? The nuclear theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? Nothing is off limits I fear with him. I actually want the US/NATO to get involved because that's the only way this is going to stop. Unless an internal option stops Putin, this is going to get real bad and could hit WW 3. Who's next? Bulgaria? Poland?

I'm actually pretty optimistic that this won't go nuclear. Putin is a vicious thug, but he likes being in power and he likes being alive. The Russian officer corps also likes being alive. The most likely result of his ordering a nuclear strike is a military refusal and a coup.

This!

Also Putin doesn't have enough forces to take on NATO. Not even close.

On the Russian politics front, a few Kremlinologists were positing that a coup in Russia is probably more likely now. US intelligence and our unmasking of all their bullshit plans led to him dropping his unhinged rants that basically showed Europe they were dealing with a madman. He shored up NATO, probably encouraged hold outs on several issues to accept pain now versus keeping their head in the sand, and exposed Russia to extreme blow back at home. It's early to say any of that will matter but early signs are that Putin made a huge error here.

I hope you are right. I hope that an internal force would dislodge him. But he's ruled for 20+ years and has hypersonic nuclear tipped missiles. That more than makes up for lack of forces v. NATO.

I do think this is the end of Putin. How he exits the world stage remains to be seen. He made a massive miscalculation. I do think that the Biden administration is doing a damn good job in the vein they are without "officially" committing troops. CIA is on the ground. Definitely.

[Daehawk]

Glad Trump isn't president right now or he'd have construction crews out there building hotels as the russians advance.

[Defiant]

Glad Trump isn't president right now or he'd have construction crews out there building hotels as the russians advance.

And American intelligence would be going to the Russians instead of the Ukrainians.

[Kurth]

Whether Kyiv falls in the coming days (hours) or not, Ukrainians have proven themselves one tough people so far.

Also, while there was a lot of talk about Zelensky being a former TV actor who was out of his depth, after seeing this video of him and his top government officials rallying his people in the capital, it seems like he's putting on a solid performance acting the part of a leader. Impressive.

[Daehawk]

Glad Trump isn't president right now or he'd have construction crews out there building hotels as the russians advance.

And American intelligence would be going to the Russians instead of the Ukrainians.

Speaking of that I think it really surprised Putin and the world just how spot on the US intel on all this was and the predictions it led to.

[Hamlet3145]

I feel like we're in that part of Red Storm Rising by Clancy where things haven't totally spiraled out of control yet. I hope things remain that way. It would be a very bad day if anything happens on the border of Poland or Lithuania.

[Daehawk]

Looking back its kind of a shame Ukraine wasn't allowed in NATO. The way Russia is going its trying to be the next North Korea. Just alienate yourself some more. The Russian people though are pro western mostly. They dont agree with this.

[Blackhawk]

Russia has a history of dramatic regime changes. They're overdue for another.

[Jaymann]

Maybe they can hire Tulsi Gabbard as a consultant.

[Kraken]

It's my fear we will see nuclear strikes soon and we are well on the way to WW3. What's to stop Putin? The nuclear theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? Nothing is off limits I fear with him. I actually want the US/NATO to get involved because that's the only way this is going to stop. Unless an internal option stops Putin, this is going to get real bad and could hit WW 3. Who's next? Bulgaria? Poland?

I'm actually pretty optimistic that this won't go nuclear. Putin is a vicious thug, but he likes being in power and he likes being alive. The Russian officer corps also likes being alive. The most likely result of his ordering a nuclear strike is a military refusal and a coup.

Putin wants to expand Russia, not destroy it. Likewise, the difficulty that his army is encountering in Ukraine indicates it hardly has the resources to keep on rolling into the Baltics. Putin is bold and ruthless, but he's not insane.

Looking back its kind of a shame Ukraine wasn't allowed in NATO. The way Russia is going its trying to be the next North Korea. Just alienate yourself some more. The Russian people though are pro western mostly. They dont agree with this.

From wiki: "Ukraine applied to begin a NATO Membership Action Plan in 2008. Plans for NATO membership were shelved by Ukraine following the 2010 presidential election in which Viktor Yanukovych, who preferred to keep the country non-aligned, was elected President." NATO didn't turn them away; they withdrew.

[Carpet_pissr]

He made a massive miscalculation.

What has happened that makes you say that? I could be missing something, but I don't see anything crazy or unusual happening right now. Certainly nothing that he would not have thought through and at least had in mind.

The strength of the resistance in the past three days? I doubt that surprises Mr. KGB.
The sanctions? Very sure he was expecting those.
Protests in St. Petersburg? MAYBE, but those weren't even close to massive from what I saw.

Everything else I have seen has just been signaling: Finland and Sweden's "chatter", maybe even Turkey's stance, etc.

I'm looking for something to point to that ends the sentence: "Putin made a grave mistake in invading Ukraine, because....blank blank blank."

[Jaymann]

He made a massive miscalculation.

What has happened that makes you say that? I could be missing something, but I don't see anything crazy or unusual happening right now. Certainly nothing that he would not have thought through and at least had in mind.

The strength of the resistance in the past three days? I doubt that surprises Mr. KGB.
The sanctions? Very sure he was expecting those.
Protests in St. Petersburg? MAYBE, but those weren't even close to massive from what I saw.

Everything else I have seen has just been signaling: Finland and Sweden's "chatter", maybe even Turkey's stance, etc.

I'm looking for something to point to that ends the sentence: "Putin made a grave mistake in invading Ukraine, because...."

Biden is not Florida Man.

[Carpet_pissr]

Very interesting page on NATO's website debunking Russian claims. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm

I was googling the 1990 accord or whatever it was, saying that NATO would agree not to expand any further East into the Baltics. Not surprisingly I guess, NATO denies that an agreement was ever made.

Claim: NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War

Fact: Such an agreement was never made. NATO’s door has been open to new members since it was founded in 1949 – and that has never changed. This “Open Door Policy” is enshrined in Article 10 of NATO’s founding treaty, which says “any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic” can apply for membership. Decisions on membership are taken by consensus among all Allies. No treaty signed by the United States, Europe and Russia included provisions on NATO membership.

The idea of NATO expansion beyond a united Germany was not on the agenda in 1989, particularly as the Warsaw Pact still existed. This was confirmed by Mikhail Gorbachev in an interview in 2014: "The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all, and it wasn't brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn't bring it up, either."

And from an article on NPR:

tl;dr version:
Putin's claim that the West broke a promise about NATO expansion in 1990 is based around a verbal exchange between Gorbachev and James Baker. Nothing was formalized, however. One side said it was just a SUGGESTION to the Soviets, the other side takes it as a promise (or is using that as a pretext).


"But in the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, NATO's eastward march represents decades of broken promises from the West to Moscow.
"You promised us in the 1990s that [NATO] would not move an inch to the East. You cheated us shamelessly," Putin said at a news conference in December.
The U.S. says a ban on expansion was never on the table. But Russia insists it was — and now, Putin is demanding a permanent ban on Ukraine from joining the pact.
"Unsurprisingly, when you look at the evidence, what happened is somewhere in between," said Mary Sarotte, a post-Cold War historian whose book about those negotiations, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, was published last fall."

A pretty good primer:
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/10761936 ... -explainer

[Daehawk]

Ah so.

[Holman]

He made a massive miscalculation.

What has happened that makes you say that? I could be missing something, but I don't see anything crazy or unusual happening right now. Certainly nothing that he would not have thought through and at least had in mind.

The strength of the resistance in the past three days? I doubt that surprises Mr. KGB.

Our IC has been reporting that it really is a surprise. The plan apparently anticipated taking Kiev and decapitating the Ukrainian government by Friday. Popular resistance was also expected to fold swiftly into grumbling acquiescence of occupation.

Now, Russia has to figure out how--even if they win--a force of about 200,000 troops can keep down on a large, highly urbanized and technologically advanced nation of 44 million. (For comparison, Afghanistan is about the same size, but US forces never fully controlled anything but three or four cities. We couldn't even secure the highways.)

The sanctions? Very sure he was expecting those.
Protests in St. Petersburg? MAYBE, but those weren't even close to massive from what I saw.

Everything else I have seen has just been signaling: Finland and Sweden's "chatter", maybe even Turkey's stance, etc.

I'm looking for something to point to that ends the sentence: "Putin made a grave mistake in invading Ukraine, because....blank blank blank."

The initial planning (which goes all the way back to Paul Manafort's role in Trump's campaign and in weakening the 2016 GOP platform on Ukraine) was for Trump to weaken NATO, win a second term, and declare it None Of Our Business when Putin took the rest of Ukraine.

That scheme failed, but Putin moved anyway. What he didn't expect was a more unified NATO, stiff Ukrainian resistance, and the likelihood that this crisis ends with Finland and Sweden (if not Ukraine itself) joining the Alliance.

[Carpet_pissr]

The initial planning (which goes all the way back to Paul Manafort's role in Trump's campaign and in weakening the 2016 GOP platform on Ukraine) was for Trump to weaken NATO, win a second term, and declare it None Of Our Business when Putin took the rest of Ukraine.

Ugh. None of that surprises me, nor is really new information, but seeing it synthesized down to one sentence is a bit nauseating honestly. God.

Anyway, to continue to play devil's advocate: Putin expected capitulation by Friday, aaaaaand it's....Saturday. I think it's way too early to call whether or not he made a mistake. Obviously very much IMO.

I do think it's interesting that he went ahead with the invasion, considering the failure of his very KGB-like Trump whispering. Actually, he didn't really fail, since certainly one of his primary objectives is to weaken the USA in any way he can. Certainly did that. I'm guessing he was disappointed that Trump lost, but still giddy at the aftermath and residual damage, much like bin Laden tenting his fingers watching the WTC fall. Sure, he kinda whiffed on a couple of his targets, but ONE hit and it was (in his view) spectacular.

[dbt1949]

Okay, how many of us are playing Combat Mission Black Sea?

[Smoove_B]

The initial planning (which goes all the way back to Paul Manafort's role in Trump's campaign and in weakening the 2016 GOP platform on Ukraine) was for Trump to weaken NATO, win a second term, and declare it None Of Our Business when Putin took the rest of Ukraine.

Exactly. After Trump withheld financial aid from Ukraine, it would seem the final piece of the puzzle was to get re-elected. But he failed that and I guess Putin has been waiting to see if it could somehow be reversed and now that it hasn't been, he's invading for whatever bigger picture reasons there are, despite not having Trump in power to help. Either he's made promises to others to deliver Ukraine at all costs or he's truly delusional in thinking he doesn't need whatever additional advantages Trump was providing and would continue to provide.

[Defiant]

[Newcastle]

Holman - Excellent analysis.

The initial planning (which goes all the way back to Paul Manafort's role in Trump's campaign and in weakening the 2016 GOP platform on Ukraine) was for Trump to weaken NATO, win a second term, and declare it None Of Our Business when Putin took the rest of Ukraine.

That scheme failed, but Putin moved anyway. What he didn't expect was a more unified NATO, stiff Ukrainian resistance, and the likelihood that this crisis ends with Finland and Sweden (if not Ukraine itself) joining the Alliance.."

I'm looking for something to point to that ends the sentence: "Putin made a grave mistake in invading Ukraine, because....blank blank blank."."

My two cents. This is distilled from reading news etc...

1. Strength of Ukraine Resistance - Massive miscalculation here from across the pond. Very patriotic fighters.
2. Disunity in Nato - The opposite has happened w/ a shit ton of resources heading to the E. European theater. NATO is united, and will expand. Sweden & Finland I bet will be allowed to enter soon. I wouldn't be surprised if NATO grows larger post conflict to ourgrow it's initial role. Well I hope so at least.
3. Military planning - if reports are to be true of vehicles w/out fuel then this "blitzkrieg" failed.
4. World Opinion - I think he didn't expect the level of "resistance". In fact it's probably reversed the outcome he wanted. IE a democratic Ukraine. If anything, I think it's pushing world opinion away from Russia. Not so much toward US yet.
5. I really think he expected NATO, the US to roll over. They haven't.
6. Afghanistan - Biden's withdrawal probably made Putin eager to test Biden in Ukraine.
7. Turkey's statements. I think this is something people shoudl really look at. Er-Dogan is a power broker in the region.
8. You also have to look at who his target is: NATO & Western Democratic order. "HE wants to topple how the world is organized into a multiple polar world w/ dicators bossing their neighborhood" [semi quote from a news service]. Taking down the international system is one of his goals.
9. He overestimated the power of his hold of gas/energy over Europe. I think he plainly thought this would cow them into submission.


I think he expected sanctions, but I think he also thought he could get away with it. I also think this has been a long time in the planning. I think this began prior to the 2014 Crimean invasion. I also think Navalny's arrest and the mass arrests and taking down opposition groups during 2021 were to clear the board so to speak of possible resistance once this invasion was launched.

[Holman]

Okay, how many of us are playing Combat Mission Black Sea?

I keep wanting to, but then it feels a little weird when the shooting starts. I'll probably get back into it later today.