Alefroth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:06 am
Another question: Why isn't Russia just hitting the capitol building with cruise missiles?
Below is a long twitter thread walking through this (and other questions). If you don't mind 24 tweet threads it is an excellent read.
The ;tldr to your question is the Russians are some combination of arrogant, clown shoes, and disorganized. They should have achieved air superiority but instead they did all sorts of high risk air drops and amphibious assaults that made no operational sense. I just learned that Ukraine has been confirmed to have shot down two IL76 transport jets. Were they carrying heavy equipment or hundreds of soldiers? Who knows but the Ukrainians dusted them, That was part of the reason behind the claims of huge losses by the Ukrainians. Even when the troops got there they had insufficient air support and got destroyed by counter attacks.
They also appear to be throwing disparate units onto the battlefield and nothing is integrated. Belarussian troops, Chechen troops, scout units, etc. are just seemingly operating without coordination and the Ukraine apparently has a pretty good playbook about what to defend and what not to.
The bad news is several analysts suggested that eventually the massive scale difference is going to overwhelm the incompetence and the worst by far is yet to come for Ukrainian defenders. Worse the Russian have a tendency to just say fuck it and indiscriminately shell everything which will be a humanitarian disaster. If it goes badly perhaps Putin will make a show of indiscriminate force. It seems hard to believe Putin is going to go all in on thermobaric destruction of a city like they did Grozny but who the hell knows.
Putin will probably “win” the war in Ukraine, but if his goal was to truly increase the security of Russia, his war in Ukraine is an utter failure:
1). He has united NATO against him
2). He will see Russia’s economy devastated
3). Russia will be cut off from tech (and money) that it needs to continually upgrade and modernize its military
4). The Russian army has shown that it is still inferior to modern Western forces
5). His army will be tied down in occupying a very large hostile population
Russia will be in a much worse position strategically than it was before all this began. He seriously miscalculated.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sunday that Germany is committing 100 billion euros to a special fund for its armed forces, raising its defense spending above 2 percent of GDP.
“It’s clear we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country, in order to protect our freedom and our democracy,” Scholz told a special session of the Bundestag in Berlin Sunday morning.
The move is a significant one for Germany, which has come under criticism from the United States and other NATO allies for not investing adequately in its defense budget.
Scholz’s announcement, which came during a special session of Germany’s Bundestag Sunday morning, was the latest in a series of major shifts in German defense and security policy this weekend in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
On Saturday evening, the German government announced it would be sending weapons and other supplies directly to Ukraine, which is fighting to keep Russia from invading its capital city.
Note that the 100 billion euros is a one-time allocation for this year, and they will be increasing the defense budget to 2%+ GDP going forward, apparently with the goal of anchoring that level of defense spending in their constitution in order to make it more difficult for subsequent governments to reduce it. This will raise their defense spending to 3rd in the world, after the USA and China.
Well done, Vladimir, in helping to Make Germany Great Again.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
What I'm reading makes the central bank sanctions + partial SWIFT shutdown as pretty devastating. As the article above says one concern with these types of sanctions is that that they have the potential to be *too* devastating - we don't want the Russian economy to collapse entirely. But what they did sounds pretty severe as is.
I will say I'm pretty shocked by the thoroughness and completeness of the pushback - everything from economic sanctions to air space removal to asset seizures to being kicked out of freaking eurovision. Plus Poland is refusing to play their world cup qualifier match against Russia. I kind of wonder the way things are trending whether Russia could be suspended from the world cup?
El Guapo wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:33 amWhat I'm reading makes the central bank sanctions + partial SWIFT shutdown as pretty devastating. As the article above says one concern with these types of sanctions is that that they have the potential to be *too* devastating - we don't want the Russian economy to collapse entirely. But what they did sounds pretty severe as is.
I haven't read that piece yet (plan to though) but it'll come down to balance of payments in the end. I've heard a range of devastating to it might not do much. The back of napkin math is relatively straightforward though if you just focus on exports. O&G + minerals is ~60% of their exports. So that might mean a potential 40% hit. That is indeed a big hit. But we're also seeing some talk that the big agro banks are not in the list which means wheat exports might not be impacted. That is probably another 20% or so. So let's say long-term a 20% hit to export. That's big numbers for sure along with potentially cutting off access to reserves which makes them focus on cash flows to avoid defaults.
Another factor is that the Russians are still technically in a recession from COVID but we're talking -3-4% GDP range which is relatively mild. This might tip them into severe recession or the edge of a depression. That is obviously pretty significant impact potentially.
However, Russia has outs. In this scenario, some of the blow will be cushioned by inflated energy prices caused by the crisis. They might export some of the gap exports direct to China (who'll get a hell of deal) and there is no real way to stop that. They might go the way of Iran and focus on cash flow preservation using O&G cash flow. That will be painful to sectors that get deprioritized but Putin gets to pick who suffers there. It's probably too early to know how much impact it'll have and it certainly doesn't look like it'll hurt the immediate war effort. Ukraine still needs to survive the near-term crisis.
I will say I'm pretty shocked by the thoroughness and completeness of the pushback - everything from economic sanctions to air space removal to asset seizures to being kicked out of freaking eurovision. Plus Poland is refusing to play their world cup qualifier match against Russia. I kind of wonder the way things are trending whether Russia could be suspended from the world cup?
This is where Putin screwed up but the West owns blame too. This goes to the video posted in P&R videos with Kasparov. Putin saw us shrug over and over at his antics. It emboldened him. He complained openly about his concerns and everyone pretty much believed a polite fantasy that he was this super savvy strategic mastermind. The CW was he was savvy enough to know where the line was.
Last edited by malchior on Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:16 am, edited 3 times in total.
I do feel like if I could commission a meme right now, it would be a screenshot of someone confirming to re-load their Civilization game from an autosave file named something like: "AUTOSAVE_Civilization_Putin_2022_02_24AD.civ"
Although wasn't the main thing with being mortoned, that the original text was not struck, but just replaced?
Yeah, but since the original edit in the chain struck out the word, in the spur of the moment it felt funnier to do the same in my reply. As always, I don't let things like facts get in the way of a good bad joke, even if I'm the only one chuckling about it. This is the way. Or a way, anyway. ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Putin may have convinced the Japanese government that the time is right to Make Japan Great Again too.
Japan should discuss a possible sharing of nuclear weapons similar to that of NATO members in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
-- David Gerard, Re: [Mediawiki-l] Wikitext grammar, 2010.08.06
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
My Ukrainian is fairly limited (I can understand basic Russian and it seems to translate enough) but lots of blyads sprinkled in there. This guy seems to be pretty much trash talking the Russians after the defenders smashed Putin's toys to bits. The talk I'm seeing is that the Ukrainians are literally crowd sourcing intel for strikes on these columns. They asked for people to geolocate armor elements with Vs on their side (which denotes which unit the armor belongs to). In any case, Putin promised next generation warfare and he ran smack dab into the first conventional war enabled by social media used far more skillfully by their enemies.
Woah. You know you done messed up when you are too toxic for BP. I'm curious who'll buy the stake and you have to wonder what kind of bath BP just took on this decision.
Edit: For some context, in these deals the BPs or Shells of the world are the technical expertise for exploration, build out, etc. until they turn over operations to an entity like Rosneft. Sometimes they'll even operate assets. A significant blow to Russian O&G developmental efforts at the least.
If only the GOP would flee to Russia. Their mother country.
As for that video that guy filming really loves to cuss his blyat word a lot lol. Blyat on brother.
Last edited by Daehawk on Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
Regarding the “bylat” spitting guy videoing the destruction of all that Russian military equipment, I don’t understand how the Ukrainians are inflicting that amount of damage on these mechanized columns. That’s an awful lot of destruction they appear to be dealing.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
Kurth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:35 pm
Regarding the “bylat” spitting guy videoing the destruction of all that Russian military equipment, I don’t understand how the Ukrainians are inflicting that amount of damage on these mechanized columns. That’s an awful lot of destruction they appear to be dealing.
RPGs, most likely. Apparently they were able to crowd-source unit tracking by asking regular people to geotag any vehicles they see with a V on the side, and then they just block the roads and flank them. It's pretty ingenious, really.
Kurth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:35 pm
Regarding the “bylat” spitting guy videoing the destruction of all that Russian military equipment, I don’t understand how the Ukrainians are inflicting that amount of damage on these mechanized columns. That’s an awful lot of destruction they appear to be dealing.
There are more videos of another column back towards the border in Irpen (the bylad video was allegedly in Bucha). The one in Irpen is littered with bodies - so not posting it. The claims I'm seeing is they've been lighting them up with Bayraktars (Turkish drones) which everyone said was garbage tech that wouldn't help. Looks good enough to me! The Ukrainians have been posting the videos. They've also got NLAWs and Javelins from the west.
The strategy appears to be crowd sourcing the locations, you can see even see videos of the Russians been filmed walking into the kill zones, and the Ukrainians are turning Russian armor into improvised melted barricades of a sort. They probably have no interest in a counter attack so they'll just leave them there to remind the Russians what is coming for them and prevent them from being able to advance.
Last edited by malchior on Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Kurth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:35 pm
Regarding the “bylat” spitting guy videoing the destruction of all that Russian military equipment, I don’t understand how the Ukrainians are inflicting that amount of damage on these mechanized columns. That’s an awful lot of destruction they appear to be dealing.
Those vehicles are only lightly armored. They aren’t tanks or Bradley AFV - they are more like armored Humvees or MRAPS. They can take some small arms fire, but only have about a 1/4 inch of armor. They are not meant to be used as the Russians are using them - to spearhead strikes into a heavily defended urban environment.
Hi-YA motherfucker!
