Ukraine

[malchior]

The variation we saw over the weekend over the severity of impact was mostly about what form the sanctions would be. And it looks like blocking sanctions everywhere. They'll be scrambling to prioritize cash payments from O&G purchases but that is about all there is. You could imagine a scenario where the banks vapor lock and go to physical cash/checks and worse collapse. At that point, you could start wondering if Putin fights back and turns off the energy spigot. We're in unknown territory to say the least.

[Zaxxon]

[LawBeefaroni]

USD/Ruble is up 18% and Russia has no access to ForEx. Crushing.


Re: nukes, tactical nukes are what I think are most likely. Unlikely still but way more likely than some strategic nuclear attack against the West. If the Russians start pulling out of Kyiv, I'd be worried.

From the Doomsday Clock folks:

Today, as I write this article, a scenario that leads Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine seems improbable. Like many others, I make three assumptions: that Russia has a strong interest in not destroying Ukraine, because Putin wants to occupy it; that even though Putin is a thug, he is not a crazy enough thug to break a taboo against the use of nuclear weapons in war, a taboo that has held for 75 years; and that there are plenty of other options that the Russians can exercise in subduing Ukraine.

But perhaps those assumptions should be questioned.

[Max Peck]

Apparently Russian state media accidentally published an article lauding Putin's final solution to "the Ukrainian question" through the lens of a successful operation. Oops.

Yesterday, multiple Russian state media published an extremely shocking, even for Kremlin standards, essay: it presumed "Putin solved the Ukrainian question for ever" - i.e. it presumed Russia took over Ukraine and essentially annexed it into a forever-new--old-union. But...

..this essay was apparently written for a scenario where Russian armed forces had taken over Kyiv and subjugated the country...Which didn't actually happen. So, what did state news agency do? They deleted the article, as if the plan had never been published in the first place.

(if you click on the article in @skazal_on
's link you will get a non-existing page...but here's the original, archived: https://web.archive.org/web/2022022605 ... 62336.html)

[hepcat]

I think we're seeing an effective tactic that will dictate the nature of war with major nations going forward. The problem is just getting other nations to commit to it. But as we're seeing, that's not the issue THIS time.

Putin's 630 billion dollar warchest just got significantly smaller.

[El Guapo]

USD/Ruble is up 18% and Russia has no access to ForEx. Crushing.


Re: nukes, tactical nukes are what I think are most likely. Unlikely still but way more likely than some strategic nuclear attack against the West. If the Russians start pulling out of Kyiv, I'd be worried.

From the Doomsday Clock folks:

Today, as I write this article, a scenario that leads Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine seems improbable. Like many others, I make three assumptions: that Russia has a strong interest in not destroying Ukraine, because Putin wants to occupy it; that even though Putin is a thug, he is not a crazy enough thug to break a taboo against the use of nuclear weapons in war, a taboo that has held for 75 years; and that there are plenty of other options that the Russians can exercise in subduing Ukraine.

But perhaps those assumptions should be questioned.

Yeah, I'm more worried about tactical nukes. Even there, though, it's hard to see how that would work out well for Putin. For one, while I know very little about the tactical situation, I wouldn't think that the Ukrainian army is massed enough to wipe out a huge chunk of them with one or two tactical nukes?

But more than that, any use of nukes would turn Ukrainian resistance from fanatical to quasi-jihadist, and would create massive, massive pressure in western governments to find some way to depose Putin.

[malchior]

USD/Ruble is up 18% and Russia has no access to ForEx. Crushing.

There are some rumors that people are making runs on USD ATMs at the moment in Moscow.

Sberbank (SBER) is down 72% from it's high in October. It'd been on the decline since mid-month as the rhetoric ratcheted up. You have to wonder if it'll implode in the coming days.

Re: nukes, tactical nukes are what I think are most likely. Unlikely still but way more likely than some strategic nuclear attack against the West. If the Russians start pulling out of Kyiv, I'd be worried.

Yeah. There is also an unfortunate intersection where we have hope in scenarios that some palace coup will emerge to save us. Who knows how viable that option is though a lot of ink was spilt this weekend about people's demeanors in the pictures coming out and the weird videos Russia is producing about their supposed "internal strategy debates".

[Max Peck]

I'd be very surprised if the Russians even have immediate access to tactical nuclear weapons in-theatre. The operational plan seems to have been a quick sprint to Kyiv and a few other key cities, decapitation of the government, installation of a puppet and then happy fun time. There would be no role for nuclear weapons in any of that. If they do get desperate enough to level a city or need to wipe out a concentration of Ukrainian forces, the tools at hand are more likely to be conventional artillery or thermobaric weapons.

[Smoove_B]

Belarus is allegedly preparing to join Russia in the fight against Ukraine.

Had an interesting discussion with my dad this weekend as all of my paternal family comes from areas right around Minsk. However, my dad reminded me that they all considered themselves Ukrainian, not Russian and certainly not Belarusian (they left for America late 1800s / early 1900s). I am unclear as to why they thought themselves Ukrainian. My best guess was that it might have been easier to tell people here in America - a way to indicate they were "not Russian". I mean, I guess it's possible they were born in Ukrainian-settled communities in what became Belarus, but I just don't know.

I guess what I'm saying is, I think I need to take up arms.

[Hamlet3145]

Donating (an admittedly token amount) to Ukraine's armed forces was not on my bingo card of things I would be doing in 2022.

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsion ... ebi-armiyi

[malchior]

I'd be very surprised if the Russians even have immediate access to tactical nuclear weapons in-theatre. The operational plan seems to have been a quick sprint to Kyiv and a few other key cities, decapitation of the government, installation of a puppet and then happy fun time. There would be no role for nuclear weapons in any of that. If they do get desperate enough to level a city or need to wipe out a concentration of Ukrainian forces, the tools at hand are more likely to be conventional artillery or thermobaric weapons.

This lines up with my thinking. They can do it and have done it in the past without nuclear weapons. That'd be a drastic gamble on Putin's part but his risk calculation's appear to be drifting from reality so who the hell knows.

[malchior]

Putin allegedly hired hit on Zelensky

If this truly pans out, then Putin has lost his goddamned mind. Invading a neighbor but also hiring a hit squad to take out their leadership?! You have to wonder if this factors into the West basically declaring Russia a hermit kingdom.

More than 400 Russian mercenaries are operating in Kyiv with orders from the Kremlin to assassinate President Zelensky and his government and prepare the ground for Moscow to take control, The Times has learnt.

The Wagner Group, a private militia run by one of President Putin’s closest allies and operating as an arm-length branch of the state, flew in mercenaries from Africa five weeks ago on a mission to decapitate Zelensky’s government in return for a handsome financial bonus.

Information about their mission reached the Ukrainian government on Saturday morning and hours later Kyiv declared a 36-hour “hard” curfew to sweep the city for Russian saboteurs, warning civilians that they would be seen as Kremlin agents and risked being “liquidated” if they stepped outside.

[LawBeefaroni]

Putin allegedly hired hit on Zelensky

If this truly pans out, then Putin has lost his goddamned mind. Invading a neighbor but also hiring a hit squad to take out their leadership?! You have to wonder if this factors into the West basically declaring Russia a hermit kingdom.

More than 400 Russian mercenaries are operating in Kyiv with orders from the Kremlin to assassinate President Zelensky and his government and prepare the ground for Moscow to take control, The Times has learnt.

The Wagner Group, a private militia run by one of President Putin’s closest allies and operating as an arm-length branch of the state, flew in mercenaries from Africa five weeks ago on a mission to decapitate Zelensky’s government in return for a handsome financial bonus.

Information about their mission reached the Ukrainian government on Saturday morning and hours later Kyiv declared a 36-hour “hard” curfew to sweep the city for Russian saboteurs, warning civilians that they would be seen as Kremlin agents and risked being “liquidated” if they stepped outside.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he didn't attempt something this. Putin fights dirty as fuck. Assassinations are his trademark.



Edit: Also, see the operations section of the Wagner Group Wikipedia entry .

[YellowKing]

I'm sure making Zelensky a martyr will take the wind out of Ukranian citizens' sails. </sarcasm>

I think we're seeing an effective tactic that will dictate the nature of war with major nations going forward. The problem is just getting other nations to commit to it. But as we're seeing, that's not the issue THIS time.

I almost posted something about this a couple of days ago but couldn't figure out a way to word it without sounding like I was viewing the war as entertainment. But what I was trying to say is that I found the non-military options to bring a nation to its knees due to our technological globalization pretty fascinating. I'd always thought about the cyber-warfare side, but the ability to economically devastate a nation didn't occur to me at the level it's occurring now.

[malchior]

Putin allegedly hired hit on Zelensky

If this truly pans out, then Putin has lost his goddamned mind. Invading a neighbor but also hiring a hit squad to take out their leadership?! You have to wonder if this factors into the West basically declaring Russia a hermit kingdom.

More than 400 Russian mercenaries are operating in Kyiv with orders from the Kremlin to assassinate President Zelensky and his government and prepare the ground for Moscow to take control, The Times has learnt.

The Wagner Group, a private militia run by one of President Putin’s closest allies and operating as an arm-length branch of the state, flew in mercenaries from Africa five weeks ago on a mission to decapitate Zelensky’s government in return for a handsome financial bonus.

Information about their mission reached the Ukrainian government on Saturday morning and hours later Kyiv declared a 36-hour “hard” curfew to sweep the city for Russian saboteurs, warning civilians that they would be seen as Kremlin agents and risked being “liquidated” if they stepped outside.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he didn't attempt something this. Putin fights dirty as fuck. Assassinations are his trademark.

Sure and we've done this too to be honest. I was not surprised to hear he was on a kill list. I more meant hiring a hit squad of mercs to do it is ... insane. He didn't think his military or his supposedly ruthless Chechens could do it? The more I hear the more I worry that Putin has gone beyond ruthless leader to something else entirely that we haven't seen in many years. The comparisons to Hitler aren't that far off.

[Holman]

This is not true, bad info.

Thanks. I just assumed Vindman knew his stuff here.

[Max Peck]

By all accounts, the Chechen force that was chewed up in the Gostomel/Bucha area had the same mission. It's alleged that they were issued with a "deck of cards" identifying Ukrainian leadership figures to capture or kill.

[malchior]

This is not true, bad info.

Thanks. I just assumed Vindman knew his stuff here.

Vindman did caveat it with reportedly - and it has been reported by UA media who is quoting...the UA government. That said he should be a bit more careful. I saw those stories on Friday night and it was shaky. Some people speculated it is a misunderstanding about a supposed retirement announcement. In any case, the guy is sitting in the room but it doesn't mean much. Shoygu has Putin's ear and he is mostly pure echo chamber from all accounts for Putin's crazy nonsense.

[Grifman]

This is not true, bad info.

Thanks. I just assumed Vindman knew his stuff here.

No problem. Unfortunately he’s jumped through gun and posted several things that turned out the not true. I too thought he would be a good source but I think he is to close to the situation to overcome his natural bias.

[noxiousdog]

I had no idea Dr. Vitali Klitchko was mayor of Kyiv. For those that don't know, he reigned as the heavyweight champion of boxing for most of 1999-2013.

[Holman]

Belarus is allegedly preparing to join Russia in the fight against Ukraine.

Had an interesting discussion with my dad this weekend as all of my paternal family comes from areas right around Minsk. However, my dad reminded me that they all considered themselves Ukrainian, not Russian and certainly not Belarusian (they left for America late 1800s / early 1900s). I am unclear as to why they thought themselves Ukrainian. My best guess was that it might have been easier to tell people here in America - a way to indicate they were "not Russian". I mean, I guess it's possible they were born in Ukrainian-settled communities in what became Belarus, but I just don't know.

I guess what I'm saying is, I think I need to take up arms.

Russia (writ large) had a good amount of internal migration in the 19th century, especially between cities (as opposed to rural ex-serf families). If they spoke Ukrainian at home, they would consider themselves Ukrainian regardless of where they lived.

[LawBeefaroni]

Sure and we've done this too to be honest. I was not surprised to hear he was on a kill list. I more meant hiring a hit squad of mercs to do it is ... insane. He didn't think his military or his supposedly ruthless Chechens could do it? The more I hear the more I worry that Putin has gone beyond ruthless leader to something else entirely that we haven't seen in many years. The comparisons to Hitler aren't that far off.

See Wagner Group history. It's a big part of what they do.

As for "something else entirely", he has a $125M yacht. He has a $1.3B house. He murders enemies via radiation poisoning. He's a supervillain, except he's real.

[malchior]

[LawBeefaroni]

I had no idea Dr. Vitali Klitchko was mayor of Kyiv. For those that don't know, he reigned as the heavyweight champion of boxing for most of 1999-2013.

Yep, he's a wealthy celebrity and he's running combat overwatch with a PK. There has been a lot made of him sticking around and defending the city.

[Smoove_B]

Russia (writ large) had a good amount of internal migration in the 19th century, especially between cities (as opposed to rural ex-serf families). If they spoke Ukrainian at home, they would consider themselves Ukrainian regardless of where they lived.

That's interesting because they were all fluent like 3 different languages (Russian, Ukrainian, Polish) plus a number of local dialects. My dad can listen to a conversation and understand the general idea. When I hear people speaking in them, I am reminded of being a kid and hearing my grandmother and great grandmother talk with each other - I can't understand a word of it. I'm not actually sure what they primarily spoke - I believe they mixed Russian and Ukrainian together. It's all interesting (to me), but I apparently very hard to untangle. It's one of those situations where I wish I could go back and ask them questions now as an adult, but they're all long, long gone.

[Grifman]

Sorry but the idea that Putin would use a tactical nuke is absurd, unless you believe that Putin is insane. First, off, he risks fallout either over Russia or Eastern Europe. Secondly, he’d have to either pull back troops from the target or risk killing them too. Thirdly, he wants to rule Ukraine, not a new Chernobyl like exclusion zone. Fourthly, even the Chinese would balk at this - Russia would become a total pariah state internationally. Lastly, I doubt he could survive what this would do to public opinion in Russia.

[LawBeefaroni]

Sorry but the idea that Putin would use a tactical nuke is absurd, unless you believe that Putin is insane. First, off, he risks fallout either over Russia or Eastern Europe. Secondly, he’d have to either pull back troops from the target or risk killing then too. Thirdly, he wants to rule Ukraine, not a new Chernobyl like exclusion zone. Fourthly, even the Chinese would balk at this - Russia would become a total pariah state internationally. Lastly, I doubt he could survive what this would do to public opinion in Russia.

Yeah, it's absurd. But less absurd than the use of strategic nukes, which has been tossed around. That was the context.

From the article posted earlier:

First, the assumption that Putin wants to avoid destroying Ukraine hardly stands the test of reality. While it was true that in the first phase of the conflict the Russians took measures to reduce civilian costs and infrastructure destruction, in the last 24 hours, Russian tactics have shown a clear change in targeting and pace. The targeting of residential buildings, gas pipelines, and energy stations is indicative of how much the Russians now feel the urgency of time and the fear that Ukrainian resistance is coalescing.


....


As regards the second assumption: How much crazier would Putin need to be, to break the so-called “nuclear taboo”? It seems to me that he has been willing to break the taboo regarding national sovereignty more than once. While I don’t think he will take the decision of using tactical nuclear weapons lightly, I also don’t believe that the fear of breaking a precedent (real or imaginary) is something that would constrain him.
[Note also they the point of tactical nukes is to avoid massive fallout and nuclear exclusion zones]
...


What makes the use of tactical nuclear weapons plausible (although not likely) to me is their unequivocal messaging value. The use of one or more tactical nuclear weapons would be an unmissable attempt by Putin to break the unity of the West, and to test the resolve of some NATO countries. It would also signal once and for all his willingness to do whatever it takes to achieve his political and strategic goals.

I don’t claim this is a likely scenario, but I do worry.

So yeah, absurd. But not the most absurd thing he might do.

[hepcat]

I think the use of chemical warfare is the more frightening scenario because Putin has shown he has no qualms with doing so in Syria.

[msteelers]

Sorry but the idea that Putin would use a tactical nuke is absurd, unless you believe that Putin is insane.

That does seem more and more likely based on his recent actions, doesn't it?

Even if you buy into the notion that Putin has been playing chess while everyone around him has been playing checkers, he would not be the first person whose cognitive abilities seemingly slipped off a cliff as he approached 70.

[malchior]

I think the use of chemical warfare is the more frightening scenario because Putin has shown he has no qualms with doing so in Syria.

OPCW pinned the blame on Assad for that. The Russians just obstructed the investigation. Random aside my team was next door at the Marriott when the whole Russians hacking the OPCW incident happened. And we were convinced that our rooms were bugged for some reason which didn't help since we had ex-agency people along with us. In any case, I still don't get the upside here when his conventional arms do the job anyway.

[LawBeefaroni]

Chemical weapons have a stronger treaty prohibition than tactical nukes, amazingly. They are also highly unreliable in a tactical sense. They are cheap terror weapons, not a way to decapitate a state.

Of course if Russia gets air superiority over Kyiv, it will be moot. They'll drop conventional bunker busters anywhere Zelenskyy might be.

[malchior]

Russia just dropped in capital controls. I have to wonder if they are going to get desperate enough to raid the depositors.

[LawBeefaroni]

Of course they did. BTC could get interesting.


I'd wager that Putin has over $20B liquid outside of Russia.

[malchior]

Everything is coming in hot and heavy - even the Swiss are joining in. They are implementing all sanctions and airspace restrictions.

Switzerland has announced that it will forego its commitment to “Swiss neutrality” in favor of adopting sanctions against Russia, Swiss Federal President Ignazio Cassis said Monday, adding that Switzerland’s sanctions will be in line with those already adopted by the European Union.

“The Swiss Federal Council has decided today to fully adopt EU sanctions,” Cassis said during a news briefing. “It is an unparalleled action of Switzerland, who has always stayed neutral before.”

“Russia's attack is an attack on freedom, an attack on democracy, an attack on the civil population, and an attack on the institutions of a free country. This cannot be accepted regarding international law, this cannot be accepted politically, and this cannot be accepted morally,” Cassis added.

Speaking after an extraordinary meeting of the Swiss Federal Council, Cassis stressed that “in these dark days,” Switzerland stands in solidarity with the people of Ukraine and hopes that sanctions will encourage the Kremlin to “change its mind.”

“To play into the hands of an aggressor is not neutral. Having signed the Geneva convention of human rights, we are bound to humanitarian order,” Cassis said. “Other democracies shall be able to rely on Switzerland; those standing for international law shall be able to rely on Switzerland; states that uphold human rights shall be able to rely on Switzerland."

Switzerland will freeze the assets of “listed persons” and will also bring into force an entry ban for those highlighted by the EU’s packet of sanctions, according to the Swiss Federal President.

Cassis said that Switzerland was closing its airspace to all flights from Russia, including private jets, with the exception of humanitarian flights, search flights and emergency situations.

Swiss Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said entry ban will impact “oligarchs of Russian or Ukrainian nationality who are particularly close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

“These are five persons with strong economic connections into Switzerland,” Keller-Sutter highlighted, but said because of privacy reasons, she was not naming those oligarchs.

[malchior]

[Grifman]

Now for the first time a majority of Finns support joining NATO:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202

In a sense it doesn’t matter. Both Sweden and Finland were recently invited to the NATO summit on the Ukraine invasion and both have been closely cooperating with NATO, even holding joint exercises in recent years. But still . . .

[El Guapo]

I had no idea Dr. Vitali Klitchko was mayor of Kyiv. For those that don't know, he reigned as the heavyweight champion of boxing for most of 1999-2013.

Yep, he's a wealthy celebrity and he's running combat overwatch with a PK. There has been a lot made of him sticking around and defending the city.

Wow, I didn't realize that the guy also has a doctorate. What a chump I am by comparison.

[hepcat]

Now for the first time a majority of Finns support joining NATO:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202

In a sense it doesn’t matter. Both Sweden and Finland were recently invited to the NATO summit on the Ukraine invasion and both have been closely cooperating with NATO, even holding joint exercises in recent years. But still . . .

I just can't wrap my mind around Putin doing something that appears to be backfiring on him on such a monumental level. There has to be a different endgame here for him. That or I've vastly overestimated his intelligence.

[malchior]

I'm in a briefing on some of the Cyber aspects. Apparently the Russians have been stepping up attacks on UA infrastructure now. UA border control access has been knocked out. The impact is now they have to process people at the border with paper and pencil which is slowing down refugee evacuation efforts.

Edit: An interesting side effect is that many cybergangs are warring internally. One of the infamous gangs Conti had folks leak internal chat logs because of their support for Russia in the past.

In any case, the expectation is that ransomware activity is going to surge because some groups may see their main sponsor Russia unable to pay their bills anymore, there will be opportunists posing as NGOs pulling on heartstrings around supporting UA, and a lot of chaos.

[LawBeefaroni]

Now for the first time a majority of Finns support joining NATO:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202

In a sense it doesn’t matter. Both Sweden and Finland were recently invited to the NATO summit on the Ukraine invasion and both have been closely cooperating with NATO, even holding joint exercises in recent years. But still . . .

I just can't wrap my mind around Putin doing something that appears to be backfiring on him on such a monumental level. There has to be a different endgame here for him. That or I've vastly overestimated his intelligence.

He may have vastly overestimated the damage his puppet had done.

NATO (and non-NATO) nations came together relatively quickly despite our previous administration's attempts to break them up.