Ukraine

[Kurth]

I would imagine that Ukraine would be willing to agree to some sort of "neutral" status, and/or to not join NATO / the EU for some defined time. The former wouldn't mean much in practice, and on the latter I'm not sure that Ukraine is likely to be admitted to either in the near future, and at some point down the line Ukraine could just do it anyway once the situation was favorable enough for them.

Beyond that, the tougher questions would be Crimea and the separatist regions. Ukraine could recognize Russia's seizure of Crimea, which would be painful but if it got them real peace (which would be hard to judge) then....maybe they think about it? The separatist regions would I think be harder...maybe they'd be willing to recognize some vague 'autonomy' for the regions but hard to see Ukraine willing to let them go full stop.

They offered ”neutral status” just prior to the invasion. Putin rejected it. At the time, he was clearly all-in on “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, meaning, regime change to a puppet government of Putin’s liking.

Pre-invasion, Ukraine wanted in to NATO, but NATO pretty much told them they were on the slow-boat to maybe. They would have taken “neutral status” to avoid the invasion. But so much has changed now.

[Carpet_pissr]

I suppose recognizing Russia's seizure of Crimea could perhaps be one thing I see giving Putin here, but that would probably be hard to stomach as well.

I suspect the "FUCK YOU RUSSIAN WARSHIP" video probably reflects what the Ukrainians are willing to cede to/for Russia.

[hepcat]

FIFA bans Russia from competition.

They'd have been banned from the Olympics too had they pulled this shit a few weeks ago.

Not with the IOC. They're corrupt as f#@k. They would have just had to keep the generic Russian name they used last time.

[Kurth]

I suppose recognizing Russia's seizure of Crimea could perhaps be one thing I see giving Putin here, but that would probably be hard to stomach as well.

I suspect the "FUCK YOU RUSSIAN WARSHIP" video probably reflects what the Ukrainians are willing to cede to/for Russia.

The “RUSSIAN WARSHIP, GO FUCK YOURSELVES” moments of this are all well and good, but, sadly, I think there are many more moments like the death of this six-year-old girl in Mariupol. (WARNING: This links to a graphic and horribly sad story on CNN).

In the end, unless Putin gives up, the more the Ukrainians fight, the more they are going to suffer.

It leaves me in a really strange place: I’m excited and pulling for more and better Ukrainian resistance, but I’m also deeply concerned for what that’s going to mean for the civilian population.

[Carpet_pissr]

FIFA bans Russia from competition.

They'd have been banned from the Olympics too had they pulled this shit a few weeks ago.

Not with the IOC. They're corrupt as f#@k. They would have just had to keep the generic Russian name they used last time.

Yeah, I was about to post the same. It FEELS like IOC and FIFA are kind of birds of the same feather wrt corruption and politics and money.

[El Guapo]

I would imagine that Ukraine would be willing to agree to some sort of "neutral" status, and/or to not join NATO / the EU for some defined time. The former wouldn't mean much in practice, and on the latter I'm not sure that Ukraine is likely to be admitted to either in the near future, and at some point down the line Ukraine could just do it anyway once the situation was favorable enough for them.

Beyond that, the tougher questions would be Crimea and the separatist regions. Ukraine could recognize Russia's seizure of Crimea, which would be painful but if it got them real peace (which would be hard to judge) then....maybe they think about it? The separatist regions would I think be harder...maybe they'd be willing to recognize some vague 'autonomy' for the regions but hard to see Ukraine willing to let them go full stop.

They offered ”neutral status” just prior to the invasion. Putin rejected it. At the time, he was clearly all-in on “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, meaning, regime change to a puppet government of Putin’s liking.

Pre-invasion, Ukraine wanted in to NATO, but NATO pretty much told them they were on the slow-boat to maybe. They would have taken “neutral status” to avoid the invasion. But so much has changed now.

I know. But at the same time, the fighting is painful enough that you figure that they'd agree to a bunch of random labels if that'll end it (maybe certify Ukraine as 100% Nazi-free).

One question is, notwithstanding the strong Ukrainian resistance thus far, are they still essentially doomed over the long-run if Russia remains willing to fight it out to the end? My sense going into this is that they were doomed in conventional warfare, but that they might be able to bleed the Russians into leaving enough through insurgency type operations in the long run. If Russia is willing to fight it out to the end, and if Russia is willing to bear the cost of sanctions, then Russia still has a lot of leverage over Ukraine. If Ukraine can actually get to a military stalemate, then Russia probably doesn't and the negotiations may in the long-run be over what sort of fig leaf the parties are willing to agree to.

[IceBear]

Think that 3 mile long Russian convoy has reached Kyiv. Not sure there's much time left for the good guys. Russia is going to have a ton of fun dealing with decades of insurgents

[xwraith]

A good thread here:

Unfortunately the worst is yet to come.

[Max Peck]

This is a press release from an order of Roman Catholic friars who operate a number of friaries in Ukraine.

Provincial Custody of the Holy Cross in the Ukraine: Press Release

In the early hours of the morning of Thursday, February 24, 2022, Russian troops invaded the Ukraine. For four days, Russian soldiers have been entering our country. From the south, they are entering from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. From the east, they are entering from the Russian Federation and from the Donbass region, which was also annexed in 2014. From the north, they are entering from the Republic of Belarus. So far, there are no reports of Russian troops entering from the Republic of Transnistria, that is, from the part of Moldova annexed by the Russians in 1991. In addition to the fighting for cities in the east, north and south, strategic points in all Ukrainian cities are under attack.

Across the country, one serious problem has been people working for the invading army who are present in almost every major city. They are engaged in disinformation, marking strategic locations with fluorescent paint and informing enemy troops of the actions of local authorities. Many of them have been neutralized by the local security authorities. At the entrance to each city there are police, army and civil territorial defense stations. A general mobilization of men between 18 and 60 years of age has been announced in the country. Weapons are handed out to all available persons. In the cities, electric transport is still functioning, i.e. trains, trams and trolley buses. However, city and long-distance buses are no longer running due to a lack of fuel, which is reserved for medical services, the police and the army.

[Grifman]

[Fireball]

Part of me is so happy to see Putin embarrassed, but there’s a voice in the back of my head also saying I should be careful what I wish for. I’m definitely in the “concerned” camp when it comes to thinking about what Putin’s next move will be, especially as we essentially nuke the Russian economy.

This is where I'm at. Putin hasn't just been embarrassed--it's looking like this will be an historic ass-whooping for Russia' s economy. Further, even if (when?) Russia eventually has military success in Ukraine, Putin's (real | perceived) image as a strategic thinker / masculine macho man-meat man is gone. That Ukraine is doing as well as it is would be embarrassment enough--the destruction of Russia's economy and position on the world stage for decades to come rests on top of that.

I completely agree it would be absurd to think Putin would use nukes of any type. But I also feel like we’re in the land of the absurd right now.

Amen.

Kasparov says this is decades in the making. We've appeased Putin every single time... why should this be any different? The west let him have the Crimea. They let him use chemical weapons in Syria.

And let's not kid ourselves. Had Germany decided natural gas was slightly more important, things probably wouldn't look so unified. What if more Republicans tried to pin this on Hunter Biden?

Things look bad for Putin, but it wouldn't have taken much to put it huge disarray.

Also agreed, which cements Kurth's points above, IMO.

One huge concern here is that Putin has zero ways to really back down. He's trapped in being committed to the Invasion now. There really is no face-saving way to significantly de-escalate, and that is going to be very dicey.

IMHO, the only way out for Russia is regime change, and that may actually be worse than where we are now.

Putin could move his forces into the two eastern breakaway regions, and fortify there, claiming he has "liberated" them, and call that a victory.

[Pyperkub]

Think Ukraine and the West would buy that? I'm not so sure...

[Carpet_pissr]

A general mobilization of men between 18 and 60 years of age has been announced in the country.

As Horton lifted up the clover,
A "shush!" from all around came over
For plain as day and loud as bells, they HEARD the Who's down in Whoville
The Mayor, in tears was yelling the most "THANK GOD YOU KNOW, NOW WE AREN'T TOAST!"
But then a curious thing occured
From Horton to the antelope herd
They said "we've heard you all along, you know"
"But we can't help, you're on your own"
"We wish you luck against the Russians, we'll cheer and clap and call them names,"
"but hey, silver lining, compared to boiling alive in Beezle-nut oil....amiright?!?"

[LawBeefaroni]

Think Ukraine and the West would buy that? I'm not so sure...

The West had pretty much accepted that outcome as the troops were massing.

[Fireball]

Think Ukraine and the West would buy that? I'm not so sure...

I think the West would continue most sanctions on Russia in that case, except (maybe) the nuclear bomb of central bank asset freezing. Ukraine would accept it so long as there was no future requirement that the rest of Ukraine remain "neutral," I think. In that case, a year from now you probably have natural sorting of Russian and Ukrainian populations between the two parts of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland in NATO, and maybe the remainder of Ukraine in some sort of closer tie to the EU.

[Pyperkub]

Think Ukraine and the West would buy that? I'm not so sure...

I think the West would continue most sanctions on Russia in that case, except (maybe) the nuclear bomb of central bank asset freezing. Ukraine would accept it so long as there was no future requirement that the rest of Ukraine remain "neutral," I think. In that case, a year from now you probably have natural sorting of Russian and Ukrainian populations between the two parts of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland in NATO, and maybe the remainder of Ukraine in some sort of closer tie to the EU.

It *is* probably the only way for Putin to back down, but I would think that the Economic sanctions continuing would be a non-starter for Russia (Putin and/or anyone who might replace him). I also think that Ukraine would maybe want to ensure that those regions, as well as Crimea be allowed to vote for their destiny, which also could be a non-starter for Putin, maybe not for other Russians.

[Chraolic]

If Finland decides to join NATO I think it's quite likely Sweden will too. Finland is our main military development partner and I think everybody's pretty much come to the understanding that Sweden's best defence is that the Russians will have to march through five hundred miles of sisu to get to us.

[Carpet_pissr]

If Finland decides to join NATO I think it's quite likely Sweden will too. Finland is our main military development partner and I think everybody's pretty much come to the understanding that Sweden's best defence is that the Russians will have to march through five hundred miles of sisu to get to us.

I haven't been to Helsinki in 9 or 10 years, but I wonder if it's still as lousy with Russians as it was when I used to go there. It seemed like every other person I walked past (downtown area) was speaking Russian. I always wondered how they were "received" in Finland...cautiously, brotherly, or maybe it was just Russians being cozy with other Russians, and happened to be in Helsinki?

[Kurth]

If Sweden and, even more so, Finland join NATO, is there any way for Putin to possibly spin this is a win for him? His whole point was that he didn't want NATO at his doorstep. Last time I checked, Finland and Russia share one hell of a long border. This seems like a catastrophic fail for Putin.

[El Guapo]

Think Ukraine and the West would buy that? I'm not so sure...

I think the West would continue most sanctions on Russia in that case, except (maybe) the nuclear bomb of central bank asset freezing. Ukraine would accept it so long as there was no future requirement that the rest of Ukraine remain "neutral," I think. In that case, a year from now you probably have natural sorting of Russian and Ukrainian populations between the two parts of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland in NATO, and maybe the remainder of Ukraine in some sort of closer tie to the EU.

I think that makes some sense. The tricky part for Russia is that Ukraine probably wouldn't sign an agreement accepting the independence of the separatist provinces, and without a peace agreement of some type it would be hard for Putin to know which sanctions would stay and which wouldn't, which would be pretty important to Russia in calculating the worth of that move.

[Carpet_pissr]

If Sweden and, even more so, Finland join NATO, is there any way for Putin to possibly spin this is a win for him? His whole point was that he didn't want NATO at his doorstep. Last time I checked, Finland and Russia share one hell of a long border. This seems like a catastrophic fail for Putin.

But isn't the whole "I want Ukraine to act as a land shield against NATO" an excuse for a land grab toward his ultimate goal? It sounds slightly less...greedy/crazy/despotish than "I have a 10 year plan to reunite the USSR, either by force or by....force. Ukraine, yer first"

[Chraolic]

If Sweden and, even more so, Finland join NATO, is there any way for Putin to possibly spin this is a win for him? His whole point was that he didn't want NATO at his doorstep. Last time I checked, Finland and Russia share one hell of a long border. This seems like a catastrophic fail for Putin.

Also the entire Baltic Sea outside of St. Petersburg would be NATO territory. That's probably the worst fail in the whole situation, and also the main reason for the threats from last week.

[Dave Allen]

Is the US government offering transportation to Americans wanting to join the fight in Ukraine?

[Daehawk]

Maybe we could send Texas and Florida over. Kill two birds with one stone.

Not meant towards our OOrs in those states no more than me in my shit state.

[Defiant]

[Daehawk]

So he is gonna turtle is he? Those poor Russian people. They'll have to throw another despot out somehow.

[IceBear]

Getting his people out of the blast zone...I'm kidding...I hope

[LawBeefaroni]

Getting his people out of the blast zone...I'm kidding...I hope

It's a step. It's certainly a threat.

[IceBear]

Well I believe a bunch of Russian UN diplomats were deported today for espionage so hopefully some of it is just tit for tat

[Jaymann]

They must have listened to the Boebert interview - too socialist.

[hepcat]

Maybe we could send Texas and Florida over. Kill two birds with one stone.

I’d be afraid they’d fight for Russia.

[Drazzil]

I've got this mental image in my mind of two old whores duking it out in the parking by the dumpster over who gets to service clients there.

Not sure if the two old whores are the US and Russia or Russia and the Ukraine.

Either way we should stay the f--k out. Give em guns and intel and stay out. Most importantly stay out.

[Daehawk]

In this image of whores.....do they have teeth or removable dentures? Cause that can make all the difference in the world.

[hepcat]

I've got this mental image in my mind of two old whores duking it out in the parking by the dumpster over who gets to service clients there.

Not sure if the two old whores are the US and Russia or Russia and the Ukraine.

Either way we should stay the f--k out. Give em guns and intel and stay out. Most importantly stay out.

All I can do is feel sorry for you at this point. You’ll never change and that’s just sad.

[em2nought]

The mainstream media is going to start WW3 because they're bored without Trump in office.

[Alefroth]

Not sure if the two old whores are the US and Russia or Russia and the Ukraine.

Of course you aren't.

[Kurth]

I've got this mental image in my mind of two old whores duking it out in the parking by the dumpster over who gets to service clients there.

Not sure if the two old whores are the US and Russia or Russia and the Ukraine.

Either way we should stay the f--k out. Give em guns and intel and stay out. Most importantly stay out.

All I can do is feel sorry for you at this point. You’ll never change and that’s just sad.

There’s also the “Ignore” option, which is where I think Drazzil has finally pushed me.

[Daehawk]

[Kurth]

One of my big questIons so far has been, “Where’s the Russian Air Force?” How in the world do the Russians not have complete and total air superiority over the Ukrainians now that we’re going on 5-6 days into this war? I thought they would have owned the skies over Ukraine on day 1.

Some answers to those questions:

”The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force”

[Defiant]