Ukraine

[Pyperkub]

in case anyone needed to be reminded of the USSR police state

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/02/10839117 ... nes-embass

Orwellian Police state - see the impact of propganda here:

Here is also my view as to why the Russian people are not protesting en masse:

Negative influence of the USSR: beginning with the immigration after 1917 and Stalinist purges and ending with the destruction of the will to live freely to the falling apart of the country. People didn’t live normally and so don’t want to live normally now, those who protest are mostly very young.
A non-trivial share of the people are idiots. They can’t or, for many reasons, don’t want to absorb non-one-sided information and just want to be “outside of politics”. And the most accessible information is, sadly, propaganda.
Propaganda is literally EVERYWHERE. On TV it reaches absurd proportions, and besides that special bot farms write a huge number of online comments, forming a false public opinion and swaying those who are uncertain to their side.
A huge army of siloviki (strongmen). Ukraine’s Maidan could happen because resistance [against the protestors] was not comparable to that of Russia and Belorussia. The Russian government has a huge horde of policemen and Rosgvardiya [National Guard of Russia] who get paid decent money just for brutally beating people who simply show up to a demonstration (and actually get pleasure out of doing so because they are idealistic and see enemies in those who show up). Then they imprison the people for 30 days and then create problems for them in their studies or work. And any resistance leads to a huge prison sentence. I’m not even mentioning, that people can be jailed for several years for tweets or social media posts (this is not an exaggeration!)

[El Guapo]

There might be civilians there but the men behind him are probably military and probably technically have custody of him as a POW. They are not supposed to be photographed or humiliated while in custody. Again this is small change stuff. Like Lawbeefaroni said this isn't likely to have you sitting in the dock at the Hague. It isn't like they are torturing him or having him recite anti-Putin statements.

Pretty sure they're civilian cops. That's a police car he's standing in front of.

There are a lot of stories of Russian units surrendering to police and regular civilians.

I do like all these stories, but it's important to remember that the plural of anecdotes is not data. I think these are but a small percentage (maybe important, or very important), but small.

In the context of Geneva Convention violations re broadcasting prisoners, the anecdotes are the data.

Does it matter if it's voluntary from the prisoner? Obviously "voluntary" is tricky in the context of POWs, but curious.

[LawBeefaroni]

Well guys...it was nice knowing everyone but don't know if we're going to be around next week

Absolutely out of our control. Give your loved ones an extra squeeze but otherwise nothing we can do so not worth fretting over.

[IceBear]

I know that logically...I'm a natural worrier and I'm on the verge of a major panic attack

[LawBeefaroni]

If it's any consolation, US Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) includes Canada.

[Pyperkub]

Not sure if this has been posted, but allegedly China knew and got Russia to postpone for TV ratings...

A Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior Biden administration officials and a European official...

...One official familiar with the intelligence said the material did not necessarily indicate the conversations about an invasion took place at the level of Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. Other officials briefed on the intelligence declined to give further details. The officials spoke about the report on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence.

[Jaymann]

Not sure if this has been posted, but allegedly China knew and got Russia to postpone for TV ratings...

A Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior Biden administration officials and a European official...

...One official familiar with the intelligence said the material did not necessarily indicate the conversations about an invasion took place at the level of Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. Other officials briefed on the intelligence declined to give further details. The officials spoke about the report on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence.

Don't Look Up in real life.

[msteelers]

My wife and I bought a new car over the weekend. The car market being the way it is, we ended up spending way more on the car than I had hoped at the beginning of the process. I definitely thought at one point "well, there's a good chance of nuclear armageddon happening at some point soon. So we might as well have a nice car before we all die."

I also had a talk with my wife yesterday about what we should do if/when shit hits the fan.

I don't think the end is imminent, but I don't trust Putin at all to not try and take everyone out rather than face defeat. I just hope the people around him, no matter how loyal, don't have that same willingness to die.

[IceBear]

I feel like he got told he has 6 months to live and doesn't give a fuck. I mean he must have kids and grandchildren that he doesn't want to fry right?

[Smoove_B]

At some point, I think we need to hope Russian insiders - military, oligarchs, Steven Segal, etc... are able to convince him to step down and disappear.

[Archinerd]

Or time travellers.

Divine Intervention?

[Unagi]

This is the first thing I've seen (or heard of) so far that I disagree with that the Ukrainians have done:

Russian POWs filmed crying and making statements.

Isn't this against the Geneva Convention?

If it helps, try and think of the Russian Invasion as the Georgia Bulldogs, and this transgression as something like Khyree Jackson committing a very intentional pass interference to save a touchdown.

[msteelers]

At some point, I think we need to hope Russian insiders - military, oligarchs, Steven Segal, etc... are able to convince him to step down and disappear.

I firmly believe that's the only way we get out of this mess.

[Pyperkub]

I feel like he got told he has 6 months to live and doesn't give a fuck. I mean he must have kids and grandchildren that he doesn't want to fry right?

It is possible. There have been rumors for the past year or so that he has MS.

[Carpet_pissr]

At some point, I think we need to hope Russian insiders - military, oligarchs, Steven Segal, etc... are able to convince him to step down and disappear.

I firmly believe that's the only way we get out of this mess.

I firmly believe that will NEVER happen. Putin to step down and slink away like a rat? He's a strongman, not a slinker. And he's a very proud one, so that seems like the least likely outcome to me. It would be an embarrassment for him AND to Russia if he did something like that.

[Unagi]

I do like all these stories, but it's important to remember that the plural of anecdotes is not data.

not speaking to the context here... but I'm definitely going to need to steal that little phrase.

[YellowKing]

Hiding under your bed fearing nuclear armageddon is exactly what Putin wants you to do. Don't buy into his BS.

[LawBeefaroni]

I do like all these stories, but it's important to remember that the plural of anecdotes is not data.

not speaking to the context here... but I'm definitely going to need to steal that little phrase.

Take the "s" off "anecdotes" though.

[msteelers]

At some point, I think we need to hope Russian insiders - military, oligarchs, Steven Segal, etc... are able to convince him to step down and disappear.

I firmly believe that's the only way we get out of this mess.

I firmly believe that will NEVER happen. Putin to step down and slink away like a rat? He's a strongman, not a slinker. And he's a very proud one, so that seems like the least likely outcome to me. It would be an embarrassment for him AND to Russia if he did something like that.

I think it would be more like an Et tu, Brute? type of disappearance. I agree. He'll never willingly go on his own.

[Unagi]

I do like all these stories, but it's important to remember that the plural of anecdotes is not data.

not speaking to the context here... but I'm definitely going to need to steal that little phrase.

Take the "s" off "anecdotes" though.

good point

[Zaxxon]

My wife and I bought a new car over the weekend. The car market being the way it is, we ended up spending way more on the car than I had hoped at the beginning of the process. I definitely thought at one point "well, there's a good chance of nuclear armageddon happening at some point soon. So we might as well have a nice car before we all die."

I'm sitting here trying to decide whether this paragraph indicates the purchase was an EV to minimally act against future armageddon, or a gas guzzler because fuck it, YOLO.

[Lagom Lite]

Per my previous post on this thread - Finland and Sweden look to be moving closer to joining NATO. It will be Putin's move after that.

Don't hold your breath.

Not that I would mind us joining NATO per, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. Sure, paranoia about Russia is somewhat up currently but that's going to calm down once post-invasion ennui sets in.

Swedish political majority is not interested in joining NATO, and the opposition is only united in joining the NATO option (similar to Finland's current status). Furthermore, even with war paranoia, only a minority of Swedes domestically support joining NATO.

Also, I think Sweden will move in tandem with Finland on this issue. We're very close to the Fins. Should Finland want to join NATO, there will probably be talks between our nations for Sweden to apply simultaneously. I have a hard time believing Sweden would up and join NATO on its own, leaving Finland as the only neutral country in the region. It would put tremendous pressure on the Fins, and it would not be something Swedes would want for them. And the Fins are even less inclined (politically and domestically) to join NATO than we are.

[msduncan]

This is the first thing I've seen (or heard of) so far that I disagree with that the Ukrainians have done:

Russian POWs filmed crying and making statements.

Isn't this against the Geneva Convention?

If it helps, try and think of the Russian Invasion as the Georgia Bulldogs, and this transgression as something like Khyree Jackson committing a very intentional pass interference to save a touchdown.

Ok...I understand it now.

[Defiant]

I was just going to put the quoted tweet, but the response made me lol.



6000 seems like a lot though. I hope it leads to more surrenders.

[Lagom Lite]

Russian jets just violated Sweden's airspace.

We're used to this kind of shit from them. It's just macho arrogance on their part. They think they can scare us, or rather. they're trying to convince their own incompetent air force that they can. Putin wants to open another front? With a country of two million hunters in mountainous, forested terrain? Assuming they can land any troops from the Baltic Sea? Come get some, bitch.

It's really fucking unfortunate that Putin and his cronies have been allowed to come this far over the years. There's nothing to do about it, of course, other than to keep propping up Ukraine and punishing Russia's economy until the Russian people depose Putin themselves. Which, admittedly, will take time.

[El Guapo]

Per my previous post on this thread - Finland and Sweden look to be moving closer to joining NATO. It will be Putin's move after that.

Don't hold your breath.

Not that I would mind us joining NATO per, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. Sure, paranoia about Russia is somewhat up currently but that's going to calm down once post-invasion ennui sets in.

Swedish political majority is not interested in joining NATO, and the opposition is only united in joining the NATO option (similar to Finland's current status). Furthermore, even with war paranoia, only a minority of Swedes domestically support joining NATO.

Also, I think Sweden will move in tandem with Finland on this issue. We're very close to the Fins. Should Finland want to join NATO, there will probably be talks between our nations for Sweden to apply simultaneously. I have a hard time believing Sweden would up and join NATO on its own, leaving Finland as the only neutral country in the region. It would put tremendous pressure on the Fins, and it would not be something Swedes would want for them. And the Fins are even less inclined (politically and domestically) to join NATO than we are.

My understanding is that polling has been indicating that most Finns now support joining NATO. Is that incorrect? Not that they definitely will, but the impression that I get is that that's now at least conceivable.

Makes sense that Sweden wouldn't join unless Finland is, though.

[msteelers]

My wife and I bought a new car over the weekend. The car market being the way it is, we ended up spending way more on the car than I had hoped at the beginning of the process. I definitely thought at one point "well, there's a good chance of nuclear armageddon happening at some point soon. So we might as well have a nice car before we all die."

I'm sitting here trying to decide whether this paragraph indicates the purchase was an EV to minimally act against future armageddon, or a gas guzzler because fuck it, YOLO.

Sadly, we couldn't afford the hybrids and the EVs were way outside of our price range.

[Lagom Lite]

My understanding is that polling has been indicating that most Finns now support joining NATO. Is that incorrect? Not that they definitely will, but the impression that I get is that that's now at least conceivable.

There was a recent poll indicating that, yes. I doubt that opinion will hold once the immediate crisis cools off. And the political majority in Finland hasn't expressed interest in joining NATO either.

But hey, I could be wrong.

[Jeff V]

How about putting up, say, a $1B bounty on Putin's head? Something so outrageous that Putin would have to sleep with one eye open for the rest of his hopefully short life.

Putin can afford 10 times that without batting an eye.

So can we. Hell, Elon Musk or Bill Gates could do that with pocket change. The thing is, what we are offering is in return for action. Putin would have to make good and pay out...but are the recipients the only ones with opportunity? If he makes everyone around him stupid wealthy, what's to keep them from saying "thanks and fuck you for the memories, I'm going to Disneyland!"? And yet the bounty will still be out there to tempt anyone Putin can't make rich.

[YellowKing]

We're used to this kind of shit from them. It's just macho arrogance on their part.

I have a Navy buddy who used to tell me stories of Russian subs violating our waters and vice versa. He said it happens all the time and you never hear about it because we're doing it as often as they are. All part of the cat and mouse game. Obviously during war time it's a bit more serious because you don't want to accidentally start WW3, but it's probably not as rare an occurrence as you might think.

[malchior]

The fun begins.

[El Guapo]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

[Carpet_pissr]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

I wonder if they would auction off the helicopter on top separately? I've always wanted one!

[Jeff V]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

But with rising prices, you'll never be able to afford the gas. Still, leaving it parked in the slip still might get the girls.

[El Guapo]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

But with rising prices, you'll never be able to afford the gas. Still, leaving it parked in the slip still might get the girls.

Yeah, and I don't want to pay a bunch of staff either. I'll just keep it parked in Boston harbor and use it for parties.

[Lagom Lite]

Here's the deal with Russia's military though. Yes, it's very large. Yes, they're spending a lot of time in training. But their morale is nothing, and their logistics and equipment support is nil outside of their own borders. The only thing that makes Russia truly scary is their nuclear weapons - which they can't realistically use, for the same obvious reasons that NATO can't.

Therefore, to beat Russia you make this a war of attrition. Keep sanctions up, even if Russia somehow manages to occupy the whole of Ukraine (which I kind of doubt to be honest, seing how poorly they're predictably doing even with their superiority in numbers). Keep building opinion among the people of Russia. Russians aren't as isolated today as during Soviet times - they travel all over Europe and is a common minorty in many western countries. It's not going to be possible to keep information from reaching Russian citizens compared to before.

Russia's military effort will run out of steam eventually, because at the end of the day the only thing motivating Russian soldiers is fear of reprisal from their own leaders. Once that fear is overcome, Putin is done.

[Isgrimnur]

Is tea permitted at harbor parties?

[Brian]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011




We were told then that it cost roughly $10,000 per day to operate that thing.
Which, in today's dollarydoo's would be roughly $12,500 so you might be able to pick it up cheap but the upkeep will kill ya.

That is, assuming an angry Russian Oligarch doesn't send somebody after you.
Stay away from windows and persons carrying umbrellas.

Footnote: That yacht is only slightly smaller than the cruiser I served on when I was in the Navy.

[LawBeefaroni]

The fun begins.

Hopefully they search it thoroughly. Wouldn't want trafficked persons to starve to death while it's impounded.

[Holman]

I hope you coordinated a full moon on the oligarch!