Ukraine

[Kraken]

I read somewhere today that the Russians are letting their dead lie where they fell because they don't want their people to see large numbers of body bags coming in.

There's a large amount of propaganda propagating, so IDK what to believe of reports like this.

[Max Peck]

Considering the apparent quality of Russian logistics since this started, it's plausible that they don't even have the capability to collect and process their own casualties. ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

[Blackhawk]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011

Slightly different yacht. You saw the Eclipse. This was the Dilbar.

[Unagi]

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011

I hate to be a stinker, but it looks on closer inspection to not be the same boat in the two pictures. Simular, for sure - but the windows on the hull, and then the shape of the top molding over the banaster. Also, they appear to display different names.

[Unagi]

lol - hot damn, Bam. You got me BH.

[Brian]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011

Slightly different yacht. You saw the Eclipse. This was the Dilbar.

Ah. Fair enough. I imagine the operating costs are still the same tho.

[Apollo]

I read somewhere today that the Russians are letting their dead lie where they fell because they don't want their people to see large numbers of body bags coming in.

There's a large amount of propaganda propagating, so IDK what to believe of reports like this.

I read a news report yesterday that said the Russians had been sending "mobile crematoriums" into Ukraine, something they have done in the past. The idea is that they cremate bodies on the spot so the Russian public doesn't see lots of body bags.

[El Guapo]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011

Slightly different yacht. You saw the Eclipse. This was the Dilbar.

Ah. Fair enough. I imagine the operating costs are still the same tho.

So who did Brian moon then?

[LawBeefaroni]

Considering the apparent quality of Russian logistics since this started, it's plausible that they don't even have the capability to collect and process their own casualties. ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

Could be very problematic for Putin domestically when Russian conscripts start coming home in body bags.

By many accounts several won't be coming home at all. The conscript forces are unprofessional and unorganized and aren't great about retrieving bodies. There are also unproven reports of their mobile crematoriums being used to avoid the whole body bag thing.

[Defiant]

Ukraine revealed secret battle plans left behind by Russian troops and claimed they showed Russia planned a 15-day war

The ministry said that based on the documents, Russia approved its invasion of Ukraine on January 18.

The operation was meant to last 15 days from February 20 to March 6, the ministry said based on its review of the documents. Insider could not independently verify this conclusion.

[Lagom Lite]

Makes sense that Sweden wouldn't join unless Finland is, though.

Swedish diplomat and former co-chair of Sweden's NATO delegation writes today (link in Swedish, translation is clumsily mine):

"Is it not time to apply formally for NATO membership? No. The most important reason is that Finland has not made that decision. 'Hand in hand' is not enough - a Swedish application without Finland having gone first, would be irresponsible. It would put our neighboring country in a very dangerous situation, increase Russian pressure, which would also impact our security.

(...)

Currently, with an attacked Ukraine pounding at the Alliance's door, the timing of a [Swedish] application might not be seen as right. The risk is that it might be strengthen the view that there is a difference between peoples and that the 'sphere of interest' line of thinking has not gone from Europe.

(...)

But the government [of Sweden] should make clear that, like Finland, the NATO option is a realistic possibility [because of Russian aggression and increased tensions]."

[hepcat]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011

Slightly different yacht. You saw the Eclipse. This was the Dilbar.

Ah. Fair enough. I imagine the operating costs are still the same tho.

So who did Brian moon then?

Sadly, everyone in the parking lot at the harbor as he excitedly stripped down while running to the ramp of the Au Naturale II. They found a jock strap in a tree three blocks away, it had been thrown so hard.

[Max Peck]

Considering the apparent quality of Russian logistics since this started, it's plausible that they don't even have the capability to collect and process their own casualties. ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

Could be very problematic for Putin domestically when Russian conscripts start coming home in body bags.

By many accounts several won't be coming home at all. The conscript forces are unprofessional and unorganized and aren't great about retrieving bodies. There are also unproven reports of their mobile crematoriums being used to avoid the whole body bag thing.

Mobile crematoria aren't the best look when your invasion has a whiff of ethnic cleansing.

[xwraith]

Interesting commentary on the Ukraine invasion being professionally wargamed before it started:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-w ... s-ukraine/

[Carpet_pissr]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

Hey, that's the same yacht we got very close to during our nude cruise back in 2011

Slightly different yacht. You saw the Eclipse. This was the Dilbar.

Ah. Fair enough. I imagine the operating costs are still the same tho.

So who did Brian moon then?

Bezos

[Carpet_pissr]

Pardon my ignorance, but why would Sweden’s applying for NATO membership be irresponsible (without Finland)?

I understand the geography, but is the argument that Russia would threaten to invade Finland (again) if Sweden joins? That seems unlikely.

If anything, I think it would prompt or encourage Finland to join.

I also get the sense that I’m missing something obvious here.

[stimpy]

Anyone need a few extra bucks?

[Carpet_pissr]

Anyone need a few extra bucks?

“ Konanykhin said he was putting up the bounty to "facilitate the denazification of Russia."

Damn. Balls o’ steel. Hope he’s got plenty of poison antidote at the ready.

[malchior]

Pardon my ignorance, but why would Sweden’s applying for NATO membership be irresponsible (without Finland)?

I understand the geography, but is the argument that Russia would threaten to invade Finland (again) if Sweden joins? That seems unlikely.

If anything, I think it would prompt or encourage Finland to join.

I also get the sense that I’m missing something obvious here.

It's a few things. In one aspect it isn't Sweden's job to put pressure on Finland to join NATO. They also probably have no desire to force the issue. It is about respecting that Finland should seek membership because they self-determine that it is the right decision for them. They may talk about it and try to influence each other normally. However, it recognizes the reality that Finland is at most risk so they seem to be saying it is Finland who should set the pace. At least that's how I'd read that. Otherwise, it is sort of akin to making yourself stronger at someone else's expense and it seems that Sweden has no desire to do that.

[Carpet_pissr]

Makes sense.

[Blackhawk]

Anyone need a few extra bucks?

“ Konanykhin said he was putting up the bounty to "facilitate the denazification of Russia."

Damn. Balls o’ steel. Hope he’s got plenty of poison antidote at the ready.

Now, if we can just get a few dozen other billionaires to start adding to the pot...

[Carpet_pissr]

Anyone need a few extra bucks?

“ Konanykhin said he was putting up the bounty to "facilitate the denazification of Russia."

Damn. Balls o’ steel. Hope he’s got plenty of poison antidote at the ready.

Now, if we can just get a few dozen other billionaires to start adding to the pot...

Yeah, I have a feeling a million is a little light given the risk involved.

[LawBeefaroni]

Anyone need a few extra bucks?

“ Konanykhin said he was putting up the bounty to "facilitate the denazification of Russia."

Damn. Balls o’ steel. Hope he’s got plenty of poison antidote at the ready.

Now, if we can just get a few dozen other billionaires to start adding to the pot...

My guess is that any officer that contacts him about the bounty magically disappears. It's a honeypot.

[Jeff V]

When do the Russian mega-yacht auctions start? I'll offer $5. $10 if I need to.

But with rising prices, you'll never be able to afford the gas. Still, leaving it parked in the slip still might get the girls.

Yeah, and I don't want to pay a bunch of staff either. I'll just keep it parked in Boston harbor and use it for parties.

Can't you just reassign some of your already unpaid interns?

[Kurth]

Interesting commentary on the Ukraine invasion being professionally wargamed before it started:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-w ... s-ukraine/

That was an interesting read. Thanks for posting. I found this paragraph to be really on point:

It must now be dawning upon senior commanders and possibly even Putin that they have grossly miscalculated, and are now in violation of Clausewitz’s most important dictum: “The first, the supreme, the most far reaching act of judgement that the statesman and a commander have to make is to establish … the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive.” What Ukraine must figure out now is Russia’s likely next moves, as Putin concludes that his invasion is not going to be a modern day Anschluss.

[Kurth]

I’m seeing more and more calls to step up the military support for Ukraine. This guy wants to transfer 3 squadrons of A-10s to Ukraine, presumably so they can blast the hell out of that stalled Russian convoy.

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia? I don’t think there’s any de escalation on the horizon here. Also, to be clear, I’m not opposed to this. I think it’s necessary and the right thing to do. I just think it’s important to note that we are moving to a very interesting and dangerous place.

[Pyperkub]

Interesting commentary on the Ukraine invasion being professionally wargamed before it started:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-w ... s-ukraine/

Nice article, thanks for posting!

[YellowKing]

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia?

I'm of the opinion "If it ain't NATO, hands off." Aside from standard money/arms/training aid. That doesn't mean I don't care about the Ukranian people, but we need to be very careful when f-ing around with a nuclear superpower whose mindset we don't have a clear read on.

If he takes Ukraine, he's bogged down in an insurgency for years while his economy tanks. That's not a terrible outcome for the US, and certainly preferable to a war with Russia. Let Putin dig his own hole.

[IceBear]

I feel the same way. I would love to standup to a bully, but honestly, I think Putin is in the mindset to escalate to nukes. I feel horrible what is happening to Ukraine, but if you read the article that CNN recently published about Marcon's chat with Putin, Putin is not going to back down. That's just crazy

[LawBeefaroni]

I’m seeing more and more calls to step up the military support for Ukraine. This guy wants to transfer 3 squadrons of A-10s to Ukraine, presumably so they can blast the hell out of that stalled Russian convoy.

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia? I don’t think there’s any de escalation on the horizon here. Also, to be clear, I’m not opposed to this. I think it’s necessary and the right thing to do. I just think it’s important to note that we are moving to a very interesting and dangerous place.

If Russian bombers targeted US troops in Afghanistan or Iraq, how would we react?

I wish Ukrainians had their own A-10s to brrrt Russian columns but they don't. We can't make up for that mistake by sending in our own. It wouldn't be a proxy war, it would be the prelude to WWII.



Edit: I just realized he called for sending planes only, not US pilots. We could do that but it would be an escalation certainly and who knows how Putin would react.

Also important to note that the US is the exclusive operator of A-10s. It's not like there is precedent.

[noxiousdog]

I’m seeing more and more calls to step up the military support for Ukraine. This guy wants to transfer 3 squadrons of A-10s to Ukraine, presumably so they can blast the hell out of that stalled Russian convoy.

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia? I don’t think there’s any de escalation on the horizon here. Also, to be clear, I’m not opposed to this. I think it’s necessary and the right thing to do. I just think it’s important to note that we are moving to a very interesting and dangerous place.

If Russian bombers targeted US troops in Afghanistan or Iraq, how would we react?

I wish Ukrainians had their own A-10s to brrrt Russian columns but they don't. We can't make up for that mistake by sending in our own. It wouldn't be a proxy war, it would be the prelude to WWII.

What if WWIII has already started and we can end it before Russia gets more allies? IE, what if the world had crushed Germany before Italy and Japan joined them?

[LawBeefaroni]

I’m seeing more and more calls to step up the military support for Ukraine. This guy wants to transfer 3 squadrons of A-10s to Ukraine, presumably so they can blast the hell out of that stalled Russian convoy.

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia? I don’t think there’s any de escalation on the horizon here. Also, to be clear, I’m not opposed to this. I think it’s necessary and the right thing to do. I just think it’s important to note that we are moving to a very interesting and dangerous place.

If Russian bombers targeted US troops in Afghanistan or Iraq, how would we react?

I wish Ukrainians had their own A-10s to brrrt Russian columns but they don't. We can't make up for that mistake by sending in our own. It wouldn't be a proxy war, it would be the prelude to WWII.

What if WWIII has already started and we can end it before Russia gets more allies? IE, what if the world had crushed Germany before Italy and Japan joined them?

What if Germany had nukes?

[LordMortis]

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia?

I'm of the opinion "If it ain't NATO, hands off." Aside from standard money/arms/training aid. That doesn't mean I don't care about the Ukranian people, but we need to be very careful when f-ing around with a nuclear superpower whose mindset we don't have a clear read on.

If he takes Ukraine, he's bogged down in an insurgency for years while his economy tanks. That's not a terrible outcome for the US, and certainly preferable to a war with Russia. Let Putin dig his own hole.

I'm not even sure what support should be offered other than humanitarian or support committed to before hand (you know the stuff Trump wanted to pull because... Hunter) That said I fully endorse sanctions unto the point of asset seizure. Russia needs to be completely isolated. If that means we pay $7 a gallon for gas, then so be it. If that means we lose trade relations with China to prop up Russia. So be it. If Russia wants to go war over cutting ties with them, then all hope was always lost.

[noxiousdog]

What if Germany had nukes?

Then I guess we should let Russia do whatever they want. Don't forget China is watching.

I'm not saying it's easy. This is why we have intelligence agencies. I don't know what the right answer is, but "because they have nukes" isn't an acceptable answer to me. We need to find out (above our pay grade) what situation would raise the risk profile of Putin using nukes to an unacceptable level.

I'm curious why you feel that sending them A-10s would be such a tremendous escalation over tons of anti-tank weapons?

[raydude]

I’m seeing more and more calls to step up the military support for Ukraine. This guy wants to transfer 3 squadrons of A-10s to Ukraine, presumably so they can blast the hell out of that stalled Russian convoy.

At what point do we cross a line from supporting Ukraine to being sucked into a proxy war against Russia? I don’t think there’s any de escalation on the horizon here. Also, to be clear, I’m not opposed to this. I think it’s necessary and the right thing to do. I just think it’s important to note that we are moving to a very interesting and dangerous place.

I'm no millitary expert, but at some point that convoy needs to spread out and become a Forward Operating Base, yes? A long linear line of vehicles is not the most efficient way to resupply and refuel vehicles in the convoy. Which begs the question - where are they going to go so they can spread out and make a FOB? They're already 19 miles from the city center, so presumably, their artillery and rockets are already in range. If they're trying to recreate the 3rd ID's Thunder Run into Baghdad and consolidate gains closer to the city I'd say they're failing.

[Jaymann]

Russia is #9 in world population at 146M, just above Mexico and below Bangladesh. I don't see China propping them up at the expense of other world markets (except Mexico!).

[LawBeefaroni]

What if Germany had nukes?

Then I guess we should let Russia do whatever they want. Don't forget China is watching.

I'm not saying it's easy. This is why we have intelligence agencies. I don't know what the right answer is, but "because they have nukes" isn't an acceptable answer to me. We need to find out (above our pay grade) what situation would raise the risk profile of Putin using nukes to an unacceptable level.

Our intelligence and diplomatic services are operating at multi-decade lows after the previous Administration. They are still operating at a high level but caution is the rule of the day. We don't know what the limit is for Putin. He probably doesn't know.

I'm curious why you feel that sending them A-10s would be such a tremendous escalation over tons of anti-tank weapons?

Anti-tank weapons can be provided by just about any nation. Ukraine already has them That isn't seen as artificially tipping the balance. A-10s can only be supplied by the US and they are the absolute best at what they do. 3 squadrons of A-10s could turn the Russian column into a 40-mile river of flaming steel, slag and carbon in a day. It is nearly equivalent to entering the conflict.

[naednek]

I’m seeing more and more calls to step up the military support for Ukraine. This guy wants to transfer 3 squadrons of A-10s to Ukraine, presumably so they can blast the hell out of that stalled Russian convoy.

See I can be a war general. That's what I said a few pages ago

[IceBear]

That was before nukes...they've been threatening using their nukes since this started. I normally would take that as posturing and saber-rattling, but there are too many analysts that are saying that this Putin is not the Putin of old and really do think he'd use them. I mean it's insane - these sanctions are hurting my economy, stop it or we'll nuke you (essentially what their Foreign Ministry hinted at yesterday)... do you think anyone will have an economy if you use nukes? No, but he seems to have gotten to the take-my-ball-and-go-home mentality

[noxiousdog]

Anti-tank weapons can be provided by just about any nation. Ukraine already has them That isn't seen as artificially tipping the balance. A-10s can only be supplied by the US and they are the absolute best at what they do. 3 squadrons of A-10s could turn the Russian column into a 40-mile river of flaming steel, slag and carbon in a day. It is nearly equivalent to entering the conflict.

That's very much overrating their capability. Russian SAMs and fighter cover would not allow that to happen.

But I understand where you're coming from. It's an escalation and we're negotiating how much.

I'd be curious which is more infuriating, seizing yachts or losing a regiment of tanks?