Ukraine

[malchior]

WTF. Profoundly stupid.

[Kurth]

It's on fire apparently

I saw that - reported outside the facility. That might not mean much.

You seem incredibly chill to me about a nuclear facility under artillery attack with a reactor (albeit nonfunctioning) on fire.

Also, the NYT tells me that although the fire at the plant is now out, an additional danger is the waste storage pools:

The reactors’ cores are full of highly radioactive fuel. But an additional danger at the Zaporizhzhia site is the many acres of open pools of water behind the complex where spent fuel rods have been cooled for years. Experts fear that errant shells or missiles that hit such sites could set off radiological disasters.

[Kurth]

He also said that NATO isn't currently prepared for an attack on the Baltic states in terms of the forces there - that NATO should move (is moving?) more of it's forces into those countries (but that it'll be a slow process), and that longer term, if you want peace in NATO countries, Europe needs to build up it's deterrence and should be re-arming, etc. like it hasn't since the Cold War.

But, if we have a chance to stop Putin now while he's committed the level of forces he has to his misbegotten campaign to destroy Ukraine and create the Russkiy Mir of his dreams, maybe we can avoid having to redeploy NATO forces to the Baltic states to guard against Russian aggression for the foreseeable future.

The Cold War lasted nearly 45 years, and it sucked. The costs were incalculable. If we could somehow defend Ukraine in this moment and send Putin out of there militarily and politically defeated, could we potentially prevent another Cold War?

[Blackhawk]

RE: the convoy.

I'd be willing to bet that a few fast-moving squads with anti-materiel rifles could cause quite a few problems there. Not everything in that convoy is a tank. Enough cracked engine blocks or holed fuel tanks in chokepoints would hold up the entire thing.

could we potentially prevent another Cold War?

The 'potentially' is the problem. Potentially choice A means potentially option B or C, too. And option C is catastrophic beyond anything else.

[Blackhawk]

I remember when I was a small child. I was allowed to watch The Day After when it came out. Afterward, whenever I heard a plane fly over I would be terrified, wondering if it was a missile. I was just sitting here pondering the fact that this week has taken the cold war from a weird memory that my kids heard about to something they're going to have to live with the same way we did.

What a place we've ended up. What a terrible, terrible thing humanity can choose to be.

[Kraken]

I remember when I was a small child. I was allowed to watch The Day After when it came out. Afterward, whenever I heard a plane fly over I would be terrified, wondering if it was a missile. I was just sitting here pondering the fact that this week has taken the cold war from a weird memory that my kids heard about to something they're going to have to live with the same way we did.

What a place we've ended up. What a terrible, terrible thing humanity can choose to be.

When I was a tyke I learned that the missiles would come from the north, so I always knew which direction was north. They said we'd have 8 minutes, IIRC, from the time we saw the contrails. I used to stare at the sky and imagine it filled with while missile trails.

For all the nuclear scaremongering, though, we're talking about tactical battlefield nukes, right? Not ICBMs. At least not right away.

[Lagom Lite]

Pardon my ignorance, but why would Sweden’s applying for NATO membership be irresponsible (without Finland)?

I understand the geography, but is the argument that Russia would threaten to invade Finland (again) if Sweden joins? That seems unlikely.

If anything, I think it would prompt or encourage Finland to join.

I also get the sense that I’m missing something obvious here.

It's a few things. In one aspect it isn't Sweden's job to put pressure on Finland to join NATO. They also probably have no desire to force the issue. It is about respecting that Finland should seek membership because they self-determine that it is the right decision for them. They may talk about it and try to influence each other normally. However, it recognizes the reality that Finland is at most risk so they seem to be saying it is Finland who should set the pace. At least that's how I'd read that. Otherwise, it is sort of akin to making yourself stronger at someone else's expense and it seems that Sweden has no desire to do that.

Yes, exactly.

I'd add the main reason for remaining "non-aligned" and out of NATO (Sweden no longer speaks of being "neutral" as we clearly are not that - we're a western EU nation with defensive military agreements with NATO - we even train in wargames with the US in the Baltic and Gotland, together with Finland): It gives Sweden more credibility and space to act as a diplomatic actor, a third, independent party in international conflicts with heavy focus on human rights and de-escalation. We aren't seen as speaking for NATO when we condemn aggression or speak out on foreign issues, we're using our own, independent voice, which has in the past often recieved high international attention (PM Olof Palme put this to good use many times during the 70's an 80's). We can host peace talks between nations who might not want NATO involved for whatever reason.

Remaining out of NATO also gives us room to act independently - should Finland get invaded, we could support them directly without risking conflict between NATO and Russia. It's this last point that would discourage us the most from joining NATO before Finland does, I think.

[malchior]

It's on fire apparently

I saw that - reported outside the facility. That might not mean much.

You seem incredibly chill to me about a nuclear facility under artillery attack with a reactor (albeit nonfunctioning) on fire.

Sorta. I was originally commenting that lots of people seemed to think there was going to be a nuclear blast. I was saying people don't understand nuclear power. And judging by all the overreaction that still holds true. I'll say it clearly - none of this is good. Yet, many people saw the nuclear boogeyman and it became instantly sensationalized. Combine that with sketchy reporting and people are wringing their hands in real time about things they have no understanding of.

The reported fire ended up not even being anywhere near an operating unit - instead it was at a training building outside the perimeter.

But an additional danger at the Zaporizhzhia site is the many acres of open pools of water behind the complex where spent fuel rods have been cooled for years. Experts fear that errant shells or missiles that hit such sites could set off radiological disasters.

Undoubtably not great. Especially in a warzone where response is going to be limited if an incident happened. Thinking about it though, I'm guessing the domain experts in nuclear risks and the domain experts in effects of munitions on large pools of water probably have little overlap. Everyone is sort of guessing with the obvious outcome being that in an ideal world it'd be best not to risk it.

[Carpet_pissr]

I’m not sure I ever considered Brexit to be engineered or at least highly ‘suggested’ by Putin covert ops. Jesus.

[malchior]

People were saying it at the time. Also, people have joked about Londongrad for years with good reason with oligarchs buying football teams and driving around London in super cars.

[Unagi]

I recall it was suggested that it was. And it seemed quite believable.
So I’m not shocked.

I’d love for this information to be brought under the fold of ‘history’, but I have my doubts it will.

[Max Peck]

By weakening the ties between the UK and Europe, Brexit certainly was beneficial to Putin. I'd be surprised if the Russians weren't up to the same sort of shenanigans in shaping public opinion leading up to the Brexit vote as they were in the lead up to Trump's election.

Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum

Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum remains unproven but there are multiple sources saying that evidence exists to show that Russia attempted to persuade the British public to leave the European Union. While an investigation is being undertaken by the UK Electoral Commission, the UK Parliament's Culture Select Committee and Intelligence and Security Committee, and the United States Senate. "The Russia Report" published by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament in July 2020 did not specifically address the Brexit campaign, but it concluded that Russian interference in UK politics is commonplace. It also found substantial evidence that there had been interference in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.

Given that Boris Johnson benefited from Brexit, I strongly doubt that there will be much desire on the part of the current UK government to confirm any significant Russian interference. That would undermine the legitimacy of everything that came after.

[Unagi]

And for those not paying close attention. I’m pretty sure Russia also had its fingers in Canada’s Border convoy.

[Max Peck]

It wouldn't surprise me.

I'd expect the Russian troll farms to take advantage of any opportunity to foment division and unrest in any Western nation.

[Carpet_pissr]

Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum

While an investigation is being undertaken by the UK Electoral Commission, the UK Parliament's Culture Select Committee and Intelligence and Security Committee, and the United States Senate. "

WTF?

[LawBeefaroni]

By weakening the ties between the UK and Europe, Brexit certainly was beneficial to Putin. I'd be surprised if the Russians weren't up to the same sort of shenanigans in shaping public opinion leading up to the Brexit vote as they were in the lead up to Trump's election.

Of course they were involved. The same strategists ran both campaigns and all had ties to Russia.


From 2018:

So what happened in that very dramatic week of - after Chris Wiley came forward and went on the record with us and with The New York Times is the ICO went into Cambridge Analytica's office, they got a warrant.

So, again, this is something which could never have happened in America. It's only this thing over the fact that their head offices were in Britain and that they were processing U.S. voters' data in Britain that has enabled this to happen. But they were able to go in on the basis of evidence that Christopher Wiley and I and other whistleblowers had given them and go in and seize computer equipment. This is what they've been going through to sort of do this very, very forensic investigation of looking at the data.

And so the thing that they told me, which we published on Sunday, was that they had discovered that Cambridge Analytica's servers had been accessed in Russia or from Russian IP addresses Russian, Russian and other Commonwealth Independent States they described it. And then earlier this week, CNN ran a story which was that - which had slightly extra details of that, of saying that this was the Facebook data.

[Max Peck]

Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum

While an investigation is being undertaken by the UK Electoral Commission, the UK Parliament's Culture Select Committee and Intelligence and Security Committee, and the United States Senate. "

WTF?

That "sentence" seems like it was mangled in an attempt to edit the article. I didn't bother to dig into the update history for the article to see if I could make sense of it though.

[Carpet_pissr]

Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum

While an investigation is being undertaken by the UK Electoral Commission, the UK Parliament's Culture Select Committee and Intelligence and Security Committee, and the United States Senate. "

WTF?

That "sentence" seems like it was mangled in an attempt to edit the article. I didn't bother to dig into the update history for the article to see if I could make sense of it though.

No, my WTF was directed at the bolded, enlarged text - that the US Senate is investigating the Russians involvement in Brexit. Maybe we should focus on our own shit in this particular case.

Edit: OK, now that I read LB's quote above, it does make more sense. I had forgotten about the Cambridge Analytica stuff.

[Exodor]

I remember when I was a small child. I was allowed to watch The Day After when it came out. Afterward, whenever I heard a plane fly over I would be terrified, wondering if it was a missile.

I had the same experience. I lived outside Kansas City at the time and because it was set there the media made a big deal out of it so we watched as a family. To this day if I hear a plane flying overhead while I'm half-asleep I'll bolt awake in terror.

When I was older I realized that the only missiles you hear are the ones going out - by the time an incoming strike is close enough to worry about the warhead has already separated and is silent. That didn't really help.

[LordMortis]

I said the same thing to my wife about 6 hours ago: That someone close to him, just needs to poison his tea.

He's a complete idiot to say this as a US Senator, at least at this stage of the game...

Yep. The call needs to come from inside the house.

I’m not sure I ever considered Brexit to be engineered or at least highly ‘suggested’ by Putin covert ops. Jesus.

That was the first thing my conspiracy mind went to, watching the rise of Trump and the misinformation campaigns on social media from Cambridge Analytica, etc..


Also ignorant or not, shelling a nuclear powerplant terrifies me. What good has come from unexpectedly destroying a Nuclear plant in the past? So far the only two I know of have ended in generationally pretty bad fashion.

[Holman]

Old joke but it holds up:

[Zaxxon]

[malchior]

Zelensky reportedly survives 3 assassination attempts due to leaks from dissident FSB sources

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be.

[Roman]

I was an Air Force Brat that lived down the road from the Fighter Weapons School.

was this movie about you? https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091278/
I had this movie on VHS - watched it MULTIPLE times. Kind of what led me to start liking Queen music.

[LawBeefaroni]

Can't verify at the moment, work just blew up, but will be having drinks with people who are in the know tonight and will try to find out:


March 3.

FAZ informs us that the Swift sanctions are essentially dead in the water. Only seven banks, representing a quarter of the Russian banking sector, are subject to the sanctions. What happened is that once this sanctions list went through the mill of talks with member states, only this pared-down lists survives. The EU originally promised to hit 70% of the Russian banking system. One reason for the exclusion of Sberbank is the deposits held by savers in the bank’s EU subsidiaries. It would have triggered massive deposit insurance claims.

The reduced ambitions embed an important piece of hard information. It is telling us that EU member states will not be ready to impose transactional sanctions on Russia in areas deemed vital to the EU economy, especially the import of Russian gas, oil and coal. What this will also tell us is that we have no means to crush the Russian economy, as Bruno Le Maire suggested. Vladimir Putin has run into big problems with his military campaign. But he will be able to finance the war.

Putin did not anticipate the central bank sanctions. That has turned out to be a real problem for the Russian economy. But he anticipated correctly that the west would continue to buy Russian gas and oil. We think the Russian leadership is also right in their assumption that the main effect of the Nord Stream 2 closure is not so much to make us less dependent on Russian gas, but to increase the price of gas. It will only make us less dependent on Putin if we were to invest in alternative sources of energy. The main fiscal effect of the Russian war against Ukraine is the massive increase in defence spending in Germany and France. Do we have the fiscal capacity to do both, defence and renewable energy investments, at a time when interest rates start to normalise?

The seven banks affected by the Swift exclusion are VTB, Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Rossiya Bank, Sovcombank und VEB. Notably, the two Russian banking giants, Sberbank und Gazprom Bank, are excluded. The ban will only come into effect in ten days, which will allow the Russians to reorganise their banking system, and we presume, re-route payments through banks that are not affected by the sanctions. What this means is that the Swift ban falls into the SINO category: sanctions in name only. The EU is cheering on the Ukrainian side from a safe distance, watching from warm living rooms, heated by Russian gas.

[Isgrimnur]

I was an Air Force Brat that lived down the road from the Fighter Weapons School.

was this movie about you? https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091278/
I had this movie on VHS - watched it MULTIPLE times. Kind of what led me to start liking Queen music.

Oh, I wished.

[Blackhawk]

Zelensky reportedly survives 3 assassination attempts due to leaks from dissident FSB sources

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be.

If they strike him down, he shall become more powerful than they can possibly imagine.

I can't think of anything that would make the post-invasion insurgency last as long, grow as large, or fight as hard as if they gave them a martyr of his stature.

[LawBeefaroni]

Zelensky reportedly survives 3 assassination attempts due to leaks from dissident FSB sources

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be.

If they strike him down, he shall become more powerful than they can possibly imagine.

I can't think of anything that would make the post-invasion insurgency last as long, grow as large, or fight as hard as if they gave them a martyr of his stature.

But it would get them to occupation much faster. That's what they want. Once they're an occupying force, they can rely on brutality. There will be no one left to kick them out.

[malchior]

Can't verify at the moment, work just blew up, but will be having drinks with people who are in the know tonight and will try to find out:

This is what I thought initially about the SWIFT order. It had holes. Still we're seeing real indications of turmoil in the Russian economy already. The idea that they are going to re-route payments through the non-sanctioned banks seemed like it'd be the workaround for Swift sanctions. The Central bank maneuvers and asset seizures are another layer. Now we are seeing many western companies starting to individually cutting ties. Access to shipping is being cut off, supply of cars, parts, and software are now dropping in. So while I get the idea here this would have been a good guess when the sanctions were announced. Now with Russia implementing travel bans, capital controls, and market restrictions...I don't think this adds up to match what is happening.

[msduncan]

I was skeptical of the 'madman' and 'terminally ill so YOLO' type reports about Putin. I assumed this was all very calculated and that he'd done the math for sanctions and would take Ukraine and weather the storm. The attack on the nuclear facility and deployment of banned weaponry is beginning to make me question that opinion. If his cheese has slipped a bit, or if he's YOLOing it....it could definitely be a much more dangerous situation in Europe than simply his aspirations to take Ukraine.

Edit: OR it could be part of a much more ambitious plan hatched by Russia and China to stretch western forces thin in Europe and spring the trap when China enters their aggressive stance. That's conspiracy territory though, so I'll wait and see on that.

[Blackhawk]

Zelensky reportedly survives 3 assassination attempts due to leaks from dissident FSB sources

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be.

If they strike him down, he shall become more powerful than they can possibly imagine.

I can't think of anything that would make the post-invasion insurgency last as long, grow as large, or fight as hard as if they gave them a martyr of his stature.

But it would get them to occupation much faster. That's what they want. Once they're an occupying force, they can rely on brutality. There will be no one left to kick them out.

Is there anyone to kick them out now, though? Would a more intense decade of protracted insurgency hurt them more than a couple more weeks of intense war?

Then again, I could see a similar result if Zelensky were to escape and be seen as the rightful leader-in-exile. I'd think the worst result would be if he were captured.

[LawBeefaroni]

Edit: OR it could be part of a much more ambitious plan hatched by Russia and China to stretch western forces thin in Europe and spring the trap when China enters their aggressive stance. That's conspiracy territory though, so I'll wait and see on that.

Hasn't escaped notice.

WASHINGTON—President Biden held a video call Thursday with the leaders of Australia, India and Japan—known as the Quad—"to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific," the White House said.

The meeting came as the U.S. and Western allies have taken steps to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin and his economy amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Biden administration has sought to strengthen the alliance between the Quad countries as a counterweight to China’s influence in Asia. But among the Quad leaders, India has been reluctant to condemn Russia's military assault on Ukraine and abstained on a United Nations resolution condemning the invasion.

[IceBear]

My wife has a friend who is Romanian. She said that over there, they say that there are documents that show Putin's schedule is Ukraine occupied by March 8th, then Romania and Poland in September. Obviously, I take that with a huge grain of salt, but part of me believes it

[msduncan]

My wife has a friend who is Romanian. She said that over there, they say that there are documents that show Putin's schedule is Ukraine occupied by March 8th, then Romania and Poland in September. Obviously, I take that with a huge grain of salt, but part of me believes it

They are going to need to step it up a bit to make that March 8th mark.

[Dogstar]

By all accounts, especially the way things have been bogged down in Ukraine, it's difficult to see how Putin and the Russian Army get the wherewithal to move beyond Ukraine, especially with the way NATO forces are getting spun up. Those logistical issues they're having now would be multiplied by a thousand, and NATO air cover and air defense would make life brutal for Russian pilots.

[msduncan]

By all accounts, especially the way things have been bogged down in Ukraine, it's difficult to see how Putin and the Russian Army get the wherewithal to move beyond Ukraine, especially with the way NATO forces are getting spun up. Those logistical issues they're having now would be multiplied by a thousand, and NATO air cover and air defense would make life brutal for Russian pilots.

Going out on a limb here to predict that US airpower would decimate Russian air/ground forces in a matter of days. I'm shocked at how inefficient they are. The ONLY thing saving their asses is their nukes. That's why Putin flashed the nuke card -- the test of his military showed glaring weaknesses that would be absolutely routed by US and allied forces.

Edit: a few A-10s would have completely obliterated their 40 mile convoy, for instance.

[Octavious]

Attacking a Nato country would be pretty much suicide. I do get the feeling that they didn't send the A team on purpose as they have/had other plans for them. Seems they underestimated how crappy the B team is though.

[Daehawk]

Some Russians are living in a dream land just like some Americans.

[stessier]

Some Russians are living in a dream land just like some Americans.

I disagree with the comparison. In America they are free to change their minds and are exposed to the truth. In Russia, they have state controlled media and life could get unpleasant if you challenge Putin.

[malchior]

Some of the weakness in the argument that the war is going not optimally but acceptable range for Putin is that there has been indicators that they are now shipping via train more and much older equipment from the far east of Russia. If true, it'll still take a week or more to get to staging and then has to get into Ukraine from there. That's a sign that they lost far more equipment than they expected.