Ukraine

[malchior]

Some Russians are living in a dream land just like some Americans.

I disagree with the comparison. In America they are free to change their minds and are exposed to the truth. In Russia, they have state controlled media and life could get unpleasant if you challenge Putin.

It's not the same but the basic argument that there is a ton of fantasy here is sound. Many aren't exposed to the truth. Instead, many choose information sources that push propaganda and misinformation that at times is the equivalent of that state controlled media. To wit, several of the conservative networks act as disinformation arms of the most radical elements of the GOP.

[Newcastle]

Thanks everyone for adding their info elements. It's nice to see the various sources OO can locate.

RE: India. I am disturbed by their neutrality, but I get it from a real politik sense.
- 1- their military is dependent on Russian Tech. If they step in and go pro-sanctions, the Russians could escalate with weapons tech withdrawals/bans etc. I can't tell you for certain how much is dependent, but from my reading a lot (including a missile defense system).
2. Their neighbor is China and relations are tense already with recent border flareups in the last year. If they make a wrong move and war erupts w/ China while under a Russian military sanction ban...how will they defend themselves?
3. Historic relationship w/ Russia.
It's unfortunate they are taking this path, but as I said looking at the world through the Indian political establishment's eyes i "get" their viewpoint. I think their hesitation is providing a ample cover for Russia though unfortunately.

@ Lagom - Thank you so much for providing that insight into Swedish/Finnish mentality. I find it quite laudable that the Swedes are waiting for the Finns to make a move first. Also thanks for the translations.

Russia & clean energy materials & resources
Another interesting read from Politico regarding Russia and their impact on metals needed for clean energy: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/2 ... h-00011392

Also from a politico article that I can't find is that Ukraine had a lot of clean energy needed metals [ i think its was lithium]. In that same article they talked about how with Ukraine being a major exporter of wheat, Russia would control roughly 30%+ of the world's wheat production. There is a lot of resource control in play here.

RE: Russian involvemnet w/ Brexit & US politics.
I wouldn't be surprised if Russia was involved w/ BREXIT to some degree. Brexit made UK weaker economically. I wonder if one of the falllouts of strangling the Russian economy is if we have the far right/left voices silenced or diminished here in the US. I recall reading an excerpt from the Mueller report how Russia had managed to organize both sides of a political protest in Texas via Facebook [ they pitted White nationalist V. either black americans or a muslim group]. I am sure their influence extended much greater. Just how much money was funneled into the US political system?


When does NATO get involved?

[LawBeefaroni]

Some of the weakness in the argument that the war is going not optimally but acceptable range for Putin is that there has been indicators that they are now shipping via train more and much older equipment from the far east of Russia. If true, it'll still take a week or more to get to staging and then has to get into Ukraine from there. That's a sign that they lost far more equipment than they expected.

I assume they are mobilizing the more expendable equipment. You don't want your tier 1 shit out of the country when you are shaking the beehive.

They probably didn't expect to need it so didn't move it sooner.

[IceBear]

Getting rid of old inventory?

[Isgrimnur]

Edit: a few A-10s would have completely obliterated their 40 mile convoy, for instance.

Ukraine has SU-25s. You still need a permissive air environment.

[malchior]

When does NATO get involved?

I hope we don't find out. If Putin did try to fight Poland or Baltics thinking he has a nuclear shield card, we'd be obligated in their defense. In that case, I'd hope it'd be very, very, very carefully conducted and measured. Meaning repel and hold. No counter attacks even into Belarus or Ukraine. The line of advance would have to be existing borders. With clear messaging that was all that was going to happen. But at that point, the chances of nuclear war start ratcheting up significantly and we'd be in a very dangerous place.

Edit: I think if Putin had this in his mind his aim is going to be lower. His good stuff is getting slagged right now with our tech, and the west has even better equipment, a lot more equipment, and better training.

[LawBeefaroni]

Edit: a few A-10s would have completely obliterated their 40 mile convoy, for instance.

Ukraine has SU-25s. You still need a permissive air environment.

Since that was in the context of "US airpower would decimate Russian air/ground forces", one assumes we would have air superiority before sending in the A-10s.

[Isgrimnur]

Edit: a few A-10s would have completely obliterated their 40 mile convoy, for instance.

Ukraine has SU-25s. You still need a permissive air environment.

Since that was in the context of "US airpower would decimate Russian air/ground forces", one assumes we would have air superiority before sending in the A-10s.

fair enough

[msduncan]

Edit: a few A-10s would have completely obliterated their 40 mile convoy, for instance.

Ukraine has SU-25s. You still need a permissive air environment.

I was assuming a quick establishment of US air superiority in that scenario. A-10s definitely can't operate without that.

[msduncan]

Edit: a few A-10s would have completely obliterated their 40 mile convoy, for instance.

Ukraine has SU-25s. You still need a permissive air environment.

Since that was in the context of "US airpower would decimate Russian air/ground forces", one assumes we would have air superiority before sending in the A-10s.

Oh! Yes.... this.

[Lagom Lite]

Attacking a Nato country would be pretty much suicide. I do get the feeling that they didn't send the A team on purpose as they have/had other plans for them. Seems they underestimated how crappy the B team is though.

To be fair to them, I know the feeling - I frequently underestimate the crappiness of my B team in XCOM.

[Lagom Lite]

@ Lagom - Thank you so much for providing that insight into Swedish/Finnish mentality. I find it quite laudable that the Swedes are waiting for the Finns to make a move first. Also thanks for the translations.

*googles English glossary for "laudable"* Ah. Not synonym with "laughable". Right, thanks.

[Lagom Lite]

When does NATO get involved?

Never, hopefully.

[Isgrimnur]

@ Lagom - Thank you so much for providing that insight into Swedish/Finnish mentality. I find it quite laudable that the Swedes are waiting for the Finns to make a move first. Also thanks for the translations.

*googles English glossary for "laudable"* Ah. Not synonym with "laughable". Right, thanks.

[raydude]

Some Russians are living in a dream land just like some Americans.

I kind of get that it's easier to believe state media when no one you know is affected by it. It's another thing entirely when your own mom doesn't believe you're under attack.

[Daehawk]

The stupidity of humans never ceases to amaze me. I think of the nearly 8 billion of us on Earth if you pushed a button to cleanse the stupid and evil of us away then less than a billion would be left.If I had that button it would be tempting just for the GOP alone.

[Defiant]

Russia sends military aid to Ukraine.

[Daehawk]

Man Id love to have one of those...minus the missile rack. That wouldn't fit under our low railroad bridge in town. I don't want a video of me hitting that bridge to end up on the internet.

[stessier]

The stupidity of humans never ceases to amaze me. I think of the nearly 8 billion of us on Earth if you pushed a button to cleanse the stupid and evil of us away then less than a billion would be left.If I had that button it would be tempting just for the GOP alone.

What makes you think you're still around after the push?

[Blackhawk]

Some Russians are living in a dream land just like some Americans.

It's also worth noting that in Russia there's a big, big difference between disagreeing with the government and going on the record as disagreeing with the government. Many people in Russia who know the truth, hate the truth, and commiserate with their friends about it will still repeat the party line when there is a camera in their face.

[Daehawk]

The stupidity of humans never ceases to amaze me. I think of the nearly 8 billion of us on Earth if you pushed a button to cleanse the stupid and evil of us away then less than a billion would be left.If I had that button it would be tempting just for the GOP alone.

What makes you think you're still around after the push?

Nothing.

[Blackhawk]

The stupidity of humans never ceases to amaze me. I think of the nearly 8 billion of us on Earth if you pushed a button to cleanse the stupid and evil of us away then less than a billion would be left.If I had that button it would be tempting just for the GOP alone.

I don't think it's evil so much as it's the blind presumption that we are so far evolved beyond our animal past that we're surprised when we act like animals. We are tribal, territorial, jealous, and angry, especially when status and power (ie - being the alpha in the pack) is at stake. Even the exceptions aren't generally people for whom those instincts are absent, they are the people who choose to act differently despite them.

[LawBeefaroni]

"Dude, where's my yacht?"

[LordMortis]

There has to be a lot more to it than that. There is no, lets try to start WWIII, be prepared to destroy a nuclear plant, cause the deaths of so many, to say nothing of lives uprooted and property destroyed that ends with "My bad, truce bro?"

[LawBeefaroni]

There has to be a lot more to it than that. There is no, lets try to start WWIII, be prepared to destroy a nuclear plant, cause the deaths of so many, to say nothing of lives uprooted and property destroyed that ends with "My bad, truce bro?"

It's more like, "Geez, everyone just chill, ok?"

He's not withdrawing or anything. Just calling for everyone to be nice to him..

[IceBear]

Hopefully it means he might actually be considering that he's made a mistake...hopefully...maybe

[Daehawk]

This planet needs an enema.

[LordMortis]

It's more like, "Geez, everyone just chill, ok?"

You put it that way and I can see that's how it's meant. "Everyone just play nice and the annexation will be over with minimal Russian losses in no time. Don't do anything about it and we'll all be copacetic in no time."

Sadly, I can see the "International community" and even our nation accepting this and then watch as they do it again. No one has appetite for war except the war monger and to a lesser extent the object of his mongering.

As much as I don't want to endure the effects, I hope the mass of nations stay strong. (And we don't see a return of Trump in 2024 to feed the beast)

[Max Peck]

Russia sends military aid to Ukraine.

Alright, here is another Mud & truck maintenance post. Look at the tires in the video immediately under the wheel hubs.

That is oil from the wheel hubs leaking onto those tires from the hub to the ground.

The seals on those wheel hubs have failed due to dry rot.

One or more of those Pantsir-S1 wheel assemblies have seized from a lack of lubrication because of leaks through the dry rotted seals.

It takes about a year of not moving a vehicle for that to happen.

Those poor Russian conscripts are so screwed.

[LawBeefaroni]

Alright, here is another Mud & truck maintenance post. Look at the tires in the video immediately under the wheel hubs.

That is oil from the wheel hubs leaking onto those tires from the hub to the ground.

The seals on those wheel hubs have failed due to dry rot.

One or more of those Pantsir-S1 wheel assemblies have seized from a lack of lubrication because of leaks through the dry rotted seals.

It takes about a year of not moving a vehicle for that to happen.

Those poor Russian conscripts are so screwed.

No one had the balls to tell Putin they siphoned from the military budget to build his palaces.

[Defiant]

[Daehawk]

[Blackhawk]

Says Russia has “no ill intentions towards its neighbours”

The caveat is that, to them, Ukraine isn't their neighbor. Ukraine is Russia. They're the bully telling the bigger kids that they just want to pick on that one guy, so stand back and let them.

[LawBeefaroni]

Says Russia has “no ill intentions towards its neighbours”

The caveat is that, to them, Ukraine isn't their neighbor. Ukraine is Russia.

That's pretty obvious. Which is why it's a very hollow plea. But it is at least acknowledging some pain. Not enough to change course but enough to say, "Hey, stop doing that."

[Daehawk]

Russia "I just want to beat the shit out of this country and kill it's people , why is everyone picking on me?"

[Carpet_pissr]

It's also worth noting that in Russia there's a big, big difference between disagreeing with the government and going on the record as disagreeing with the government. Many people in Russia who know the truth, hate the truth, and commiserate with their friends about it will still repeat the party line when there is a camera in their face.

Yep, this. In fact, the young guy interviewed about halfway though literally says that. And it at least seemed like a few of the others were very wary and probably fearful of saying anything critical, considering the potential consequences. Also, I would not put it past the Russian government to stage "on the street" interviews to trap, or at the least identify those willing to speak out.

Tell them what you REALLY think about Putin and his war, documented on camera, with a visual id - and WOOF, the next day you've got a hood over your head on your way to some work camp.

[Jaymann]

Advantage sarcasm.

[Daehawk]

[LordMortis]

Thank you! Are there better ways to provide more direct support?

[Blackhawk]

Some Russians are living in a dream land just like some Americans.

It's also worth noting that in Russia there's a big, big difference between disagreeing with the government and going on the record as disagreeing with the government. Many people in Russia who know the truth, hate the truth, and commiserate with their friends about it will still repeat the party line when there is a camera in their face.

To back that up, according to the NYT:

Russia clamped down harder Friday on news and free speech than at any time in President Vladimir V. Putin’s 22 years in power, blocking access to Facebook and major foreign news outlets, and enacting a law to punish anyone spreading “false information” about its Ukraine invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

[snip]

Mr. Putin signed a law that effectively criminalizes any public opposition to or independent news reporting about the war against Ukraine.

Notice that the only people in that video who didn't immediately praise Putin and offer support were young people. The older people remember what it was like. And the younger people are starting to learn. You may know the truth, and you may oppose it, but you don't go on record with your opposition.