Ukraine

[Blackhawk]

I was referring to putting the pinch on heating just as the weather is starting to warm.

[LawBeefaroni]

I think on balance it’s a mistake.
He’s going to get more hurt by this, as I suspect EU will take the hit some how, and it seems like only a good move if it forced EU to bail/comply/bow out. And I don’t see that.

Timing is bad for Putin. Demand is lower in warmer months. It's certainly more discretionary.

Not that there won't still be demand but it will be easier not to buy.

There will still be quite a bit of demand. Approximately 20% and 35% of power generation is nat gas and oil respectively. This gets into keeping the lights on territory. One thing buffering that is it isn't unusual for the fuel source to be substitutable to some extent. Some percentage of power plants are multi-fuel in the US but it isn't close to majority of them. I assume it's similar in Europe. Still I wouldn't want to be anyone in charge of Energy policy in Europe right now.

Europeans tend to be a bit more willing to sacrifice for the greater good. Having WWIII unfolding on their doorstep doesn't hurt the cause either. It won't be easy but it's certainly easier in April than in January.

And hey, if nat gas and oil prices are soaring, North America has something to sell.

[Isgrimnur]

I can't feel too bad for them if they didn't take action after Crimea.

[Newcastle]

Holy Smokes!

NATO estimates that up to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed since the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine began last month, with as many as 40,000 dead, wounded, taken prisoner or missing.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... or-missing

[LordMortis]

40,000

They were talking decimated before, that's like decimated x2.5, isn't it? How horrible that the leader of a nation can so casually sacrifice so many for vanity.

[malchior]

Formal US declaration that war crimes have been committed

The Biden administration on Wednesday made a formal determination that Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine and said it would work with others to prosecute offenders, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

“Today, I can announce that, based on information currently available, the U.S. government assesses that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine,” Blinken said in a statement released as he was traveling to Brussels with President Joe Biden for an emergency summit of NATO leaders.

The assessment was based on a “careful review” of public and intelligence sources since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last month, he said.

America’s top diplomat said the United States would share that information with allies, partners and international institutions tasked with investigating allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

[LawBeefaroni]

Holy Smokes!

NATO estimates that up to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed since the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine began last month, with as many as 40,000 dead, wounded, taken prisoner or missing.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... or-missing

I was wondering about this. Where are they putting all the Russian POWs? Seems like they would lack the resources to do much of anything with them.

[Holman]

I'm still not so sure Russia is going to lose. They may have to had more troops and use genocide and it will take longer but in the end they will own the Ukraine.

They might own it temporarily, but between insurgency and sanctions it might prove too expensive to keep.

[dbt1949]

I hope everybody is right and the Ukraine continues to whip Russia's ass and forces them to retreat and never come back. With huge casualties on the Russians. Go Ukraine!

[Daehawk]

Ukraine war: Russian journalist Oksana Baulina killed in Kyiv shelling

Oksana Baulina had been reporting from Kyiv and the western city of Lviv for investigative website The Insider, the outlet said in a statement.

She died while filming damage in the city's Podil district, it added.

Baulina previously worked for Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny's anti-corruption foundation, and had left Russia.

Last year the foundation was made illegal and branded extremist by the authorities, forcing many of its staff to flee abroad.

[Holman]

Wow. This is like capturing an Enigma machine.

Sure, they know we have it, but it's about the tech, not the cypher.

[Defiant]

Intelligence services are like:

[Holman]

Apparently the function of this system is to jam AWACs and other detection systems. I didn't know that was possible, but apparently it's a thing.

We didn't face anything like this in air campaigns over Iraq (both times) or Afghanistan, so getting access to it now is a huge win.

[malchior]

Another huge Rollingstone scoop - tying a Ukrainian oligarch who was tasked with manufacturing casus belli material and is linked tightly to Giuliani (hired his firm) and business links to Trump. Fuks was involved in the abortive Trump Tower Moscow deal and has ties to Russian mafia.

[Defiant]

I kind of would have hoped they already had one, but good that they're creating it now.

[Holman]

[malchior]

I agree. Well done reporting.

[Kraken]

It also puts a ton of pressure on Europe to figure out how to keep people from freezing or turning off the lights. He is fighting back economically and it threatens to widen the conflict.

Various news sources have been suggesting that the Iran agreement could be resurrected in a matter of days. Iran's supreme leader (Khameini?) signaled his blessing just a couple of days ago. Granted Iran doesn't have any pipelines to the EU so the logistics will be hard, but the spot market will be flush if Iranian tankers start sailing again soon. This would be a win/win for Iran and the West, and it looks likely.

There's also the satisfaction of fixing one of trump's biggest blunders.

[Scraper]

It also puts a ton of pressure on Europe to figure out how to keep people from freezing or turning off the lights. He is fighting back economically and it threatens to widen the conflict.

Various news sources have been suggesting that the Iran agreement could be resurrected in a matter of days. Iran's supreme leader (Khameini?) signaled his blessing just a couple of days ago. Granted Iran doesn't have any pipelines to the EU so the logistics will be hard, but the spot market will be flush if Iranian tankers start sailing again soon. This would be a win/win for Iran and the West, and it looks likely.

There's also the satisfaction of fixing one of trump's biggest blunders.

Lets not jump the gun here. I mean it's really hard at this point to say which Trump blunder is one of the biggest.

[Max Peck]

It appears that Ukraine struck at the Russian navy at port in occupied Berdyansk, on the north coast of the Sea of Azov. It seems that one ship (Alligator-class landing ship BDK-69 "Orsk") was probably destroyed and two other ships suffered at least light damage but were able to make for sea.

[Unagi]

Man, it's too bad those two got away though.

[malchior]

Both of the two other ships had at least minor fires. The one closer to the camera had light smoke but the further one had visible flames from the foredeck or perhaps amidship. You can see it emerge from the smoke around the 3 minute mark. Russian fire control is notoriously bad so hopefully that'll knock at least one more out of action for awhile.

[LordMortis]

It appears that Ukraine struck at the Russian navy at port in occupied Berdyansk, on the north coast of the Sea of Azov. It seems that one ship (Alligator-class landing ship BDK-69 "Orsk") was probably destroyed and two other ships suffered at least light damage but were able to make for sea.

God that was heartbreaking to watch. Fuck Putin and those that support him.

[Unagi]

That was a video of the Russian Navy on fire and in retreat.

[raydude]

BDK-69 "Orsk" is kind of ironic given that the Ukrainians have been calling the Russians "Orks". I mean, yes it's misspelled, but still.

[LordMortis]

That was a video of the Russian Navy on fire and in retreat.

Yeah, and a lot people died that wanted no part of being in the military or holding that port. I'm not saying Ukraine was in the wrong. I'm saying it's heartbreaking. Dying like that for a megalomaniac's personal ambition is nauseating to me. I can only imagine the horror of what are essentially kids on board taking march orders. They weren't afforded the ability to surrender from someone else cause. I hope more Russians begin to stand up that level of evil. Horrible.

[Unagi]

I totally hear ya.

I wrestle with the thoughts of the young Russian conscripts who are also needlessly dying in all of this.

Nonetheless, I have to feel better that their use of military aggression is weakened by this, and hence on balance my heart is warmed by the idea of their loss.

I have sympathy for so many people caught up in this, but I feel stretched and like I need to focus my sympathies. It’s like sympathy triage. Like I can’t put too much sympathy into the Russian citizen right now, just because they aren’t actively being shot at, they are just being lied to and used and suffocated. Which I will care a lot about, just after their armies stop killing people, etc.

I’m sure you get that too.

This all sucks so much.

[Max Peck]

Bayraktar!

Ukraine Military Sources are now Claiming that the Explosions this morning at the Russian Occupied Port of Berdyans'k were caused by Missiles Fired from a Ukrainian Navy Bayraktar TB-2 Drone, these Explosions caused Fires which completely destroyed a Alligator-Class Landing Ship.

Besides the complete destruction of the Russian Alligator-Class Amphibious Landing Ship named the “Orsk” as well as a Large Stockpile of Fuel/Munitions at the Port, another much Larger Russian Ropucha-Class Amphibious Landing Ship can be seen Fleeing with her deck on Fire.

[raydude]

I find Trent Telenko's logistics analysis threads fascinating. This time it's all about pallets and the lack thereof in the Russian army.

TL;DR
Pallets and cranes let you move more material in less time. Russian destroyed and captured trucks appear to lack pallets, suggesting that sheer manpower is used to load and unload the trucks. Even the trucks carrying pallets don't appear to have basic features to "tie-down" the pallets.

None of the Russian trucks have built-in handling cranes, unlike the US Army which has 10-15% of its trucks fitted with cranes.This means pre-war assumptions on how fast Russian trucks load and unload may be optimistic because we assumed they would have the same mechanized logistics we did.

[malchior]

What is going on with these idiotic questions?

[malchior]

I find Trent Telenko's logistics analysis threads fascinating. This time it's all about pallets and the lack thereof in the Russian army.

TL;DR
Pallets and cranes let you move more material in less time. Russian destroyed and captured trucks appear to lack pallets, suggesting that sheer manpower is used to load and unload the trucks. Even the trucks carrying pallets don't appear to have basic features to "tie-down" the pallets.

None of the Russian trucks have built-in handling cranes, unlike the US Army which has 10-15% of its trucks fitted with cranes.This means pre-war assumptions on how fast Russian trucks load and unload may be optimistic because we assumed they would have the same mechanized logistics we did.

Another factor is that many Russian trucks use wood beds which fragment into tiny shards of death, burns, and has lower overall weight capacity. They are slightly lighter but hardly a great trade off.

[El Guapo]

What is going on with these idiotic questions?

Well the tweet is wildly misrepresenting the question. The question is whether Biden ruling out direct military intervention (as opposed to being ambiguous about the issue) may have emboldened Putin to be more aggressive (since he could be pretty sure that the U.S. would not get directly involved militarily no matter what.

[malchior]

Well the tweet is wildly misrepresenting the question.

Not really. It isn't misleading. It's snark. In any case, that is a pretty accurate summation of what would happen if we followed the course asked.

The question is whether Biden ruling out direct military intervention (as opposed to being ambiguous about the issue) may have emboldened Putin to be more aggressive (since he could be pretty sure that the U.S. would not get directly involved militarily no matter what.

Reporters over and over keep asking questions along these lines that have well-known answers. It isn't about emboldening Putin. We can't act or else we risk a nuclear war. That's just the cold reality. It is why I find it idiotic. They know the answer. I don't know why they persist with this line knowing the answer and getting the same response day after day.

Edit: Just pushing on this point. The idea that nuclear powers don't directly fight has been a reality for about 70 years now. This isn't new ground. The entire cold war was premised on that. So saying that Biden ruled out military action too early is sort of like asking him where the sun rises. It is sort of like how the Russians were queried on first use of nuclear weapons and they actually soberly gave the same answer that we would. This isn't new ground and I just don't understand why they are focusing on 'high school' level foreign policy tenets.

[El Guapo]

Well the tweet is wildly misrepresenting the question.

Not really. It isn't misleading. It's snark. In any case, that is a pretty accurate summation of what would happen if we followed the course asked.

The question is whether Biden ruling out direct military intervention (as opposed to being ambiguous about the issue) may have emboldened Putin to be more aggressive (since he could be pretty sure that the U.S. would not get directly involved militarily no matter what.

Reporters over and over keep asking questions along these lines that have well-known answers. It isn't about emboldening Putin. We can't act or else we risk a nuclear war. That's just the cold reality. It is why I find it idiotic. They know the answer. I don't know why they persist with this line knowing the answer and getting the same response day after day.

Well I haven't been tracking the course of the press conferences so I can't speak to the repetition of topics. It's just that "should you have preserved some ambiguity in terms of possible military responses?" doesn't strike me as a stupid question, even if there's a certain inevitable logic due to the whole tons of nuclear weapons thing.

[malchior]

Well the tweet is wildly misrepresenting the question.

Not really. It isn't misleading. It's snark. In any case, that is a pretty accurate summation of what would happen if we followed the course asked.

The question is whether Biden ruling out direct military intervention (as opposed to being ambiguous about the issue) may have emboldened Putin to be more aggressive (since he could be pretty sure that the U.S. would not get directly involved militarily no matter what.

Reporters over and over keep asking questions along these lines that have well-known answers. It isn't about emboldening Putin. We can't act or else we risk a nuclear war. That's just the cold reality. It is why I find it idiotic. They know the answer. I don't know why they persist with this line knowing the answer and getting the same response day after day.

Well I haven't been tracking the course of the press conferences so I can't speak to the repetition of topics. It's just that "should you have preserved some ambiguity in terms of possible military responses?" doesn't strike me as a stupid question, even if there's a certain inevitable logic due to the whole tons of nuclear weapons thing.

Sure. If this was one question out of the blue it might be ok. But again it is like we never lived through the cold war and they are doing this every day. The leeway I'd grant is that the question is to Biden directly versus Psaki. If it was a good question getting it on record out of the horse's mouth might have value. It'll end up being part of her story whenever she files it but I doubt she'll directly quote him there.

[Holman]

That was a video of the Russian Navy on fire and in retreat.

And targeting was probably courtesy of Russian propaganda on RT...

[LawBeefaroni]

That was a video of the Russian Navy on fire and in retreat.

And targeting was probably courtesy of Russian propaganda on RT...

Wow.

OPSEC what?

[malchior]

Wow.

OPSEC what?

Yeah. There is a lot of head scratching for sure. The Russian capabilities look insanely overblown now. They have the NY Times posting war crime radio intercepts and they've likely lost generals because they were using cell phones. At the end of the day, there were feeds available via a web camera anyway so maybe it didn't tip the Ukrainians off. The RT spot however sure made it an attractive target for PR purposes.

[malchior]

If you blinked and missed it - the Russian stock market opened for 4 hours today after being closed for about a month. It closed up about 4%. In a show of strength they only allowed trading on a select number of stocks, instituted rules that prevent sales by foreigners, banned short selling, and had Russia's sovereign wealth fund make massive purchases of the stocks listed. Totally legit.

[Max Peck]

And targeting was probably courtesy of Russian propaganda on RT...

Possibly, but the ships were operating in full view of about 100k pairs of unfriendly eyes. I'd expect UA forces knew exactly what was going on in the port even without RT's assistance.