Ukraine

[Holman]

And targeting was probably courtesy of Russian propaganda on RT...

Possibly, but the ships were operating in full view of about 100k pairs of unfriendly eyes. I'd expect UA forces knew exactly what was going on in the port even without RT's assistance.

That's true. Still, setting ships on fire is a nice rejoinder to the propaganda ad.

[Holman]

[malchior]

They plan to tell Putin to 'fuck around and find out'.

[Kasey Chang]

Seems Draganfly civilian delivery drones will be going to Ukraine for breaking Russian sieges

In the meantime, The Chieftain (main tanker for World of Tanks) warns NOT to base your expectations on what you see in the news, which is heavily edited for PR. Think about what you don't see instead.

[Carpet_pissr]

Love.

For anyone unaware, that's a reference to the briliant and hilarious show, "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" Every show starts with a title like that, usually shocking, related to whatever shenanigans they will get into.

The Gang Goes Jihad
The Gang Gets Racist
The Gang Makes Paddy's Great Again
etc.

[raydude]

Richard Engel reporting from Kyiv with an unclassified map showing Ukrainian counter-offsensive around Kyiv. Granted it's Ukranian reports but given Russian logistics issues I don't disbelieve it. WIth spring will come the mud, which means control of roads will be key. That red area NW of Kyiv could become a pocket of unsupplied Russians.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'll be in my bunker.

[malchior]

Primer on NATO and Russia escalation theory

[Montag]

Expect a missile strike on the building with the camera. So nice to see the secondary explosions. All that ammunition that wont be used on Ukrainian civilians and military. How many lives have been saved because of this? Probably more than we may think.

[Unagi]

I'll be in my bunker.

I don’t get it.
I get the reference to masturbating in ones bunk, but I don’t see the intersection into this conversation.

Total head scratcher.

[YellowKing]

I took it as excitement for Ukraine's territorial gains. Or maybe Carpet_pissr gets turned on by maps.

[Archinerd]

I'll be in my bunker.

I don’t get it.
I get the reference to masturbating in ones bunk, but I don’t see the intersection into this conversation.

Total head scratcher.

Less salacious, more practial I think.
The threat of nuclear war is my guess.

[LawBeefaroni]

FWIW, r/combatfootage tends to have fairly well curated footage.

Here are some Americans on the ground:

Spoiler:

[Unagi]

I'll be in my bunker.

I don’t get it.
I get the reference to masturbating in ones bunk, but I don’t see the intersection into this conversation.

Total head scratcher.

Less salacious, more practial I think.
The threat of nuclear war is my guess.

Ahh ok. So it’s the juxtaposition that makes it fit.

Sincere thanks.

[malchior]

I got deep into a Telegram/Discord hole this morning and there was some encouraging elements being discussed by US ex-military folks. It appears the Russians are so worn down that "we" are starting to see days old footage that indicates the Ukrainians might have been using their Territorial Defense Force (TDF) troops as a make shift recon force. There is some video of them conducting probes for enemy positions ahead of the counter attacks outside Kyiv as far as a week back.

To put this in context, these are essentially the lowest level of reservists. A lot of comments about sloppiness and all that. If it was them fighting defensively, it'd be a bad story but instead the Ukrainians are seeing gains which is why some are assessing it as a net positive. It takes pressure off the frontline guys and gives them a break from the fight to an extent.

On the flip side, a beat up force is suddenly seeing an increase in the breadth of contact which ties up troops and reduces effectiveness of re-organization and relief efforts. The intensity also might be still quite high for them so it'll sap at them. All good news potentially but this is still looking like a long slog.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'll be in my bunker.

I don’t get it.
I get the reference to masturbating in ones bunk, but I don’t see the intersection into this conversation.

Total head scratcher.

Less salacious, more practial I think.
The threat of nuclear war is my guess.

This. Double entendre...or something.
Sorry, I can be cryptic.

Russia is seemingly being surrounded by a very strong counter-offensive by the Ukrainians. The more desperate or worse things get for Russia (and certainly I would think being surrounded would qualify), likely the more desperate Putin gets and would consider more rash...behavior (chemical weapons, nukes, whatever).

[LawBeefaroni]

I'll be in my bunker.

I don’t get it.
I get the reference to masturbating in ones bunk, but I don’t see the intersection into this conversation.

Total head scratcher.

Less salacious, more practial I think.
The threat of nuclear war is my guess.

This. Double entendre...or something.
Sorry, I can be cryptic.

Call yourself whatever you want except on the carpet.

[Unagi]

Ok. Well, if I had the authority to issue fines for the misuse of Firefly memes, I’d likely have written you a ticket.

[Carpet_pissr]

Ok. Well, if I had the authority to issue fines for the misuse of Firefly memes, I’d likely have written you a ticket.

My trigger worked! Great success!!

[Blackhawk]

And targeting was probably courtesy of Russian propaganda on RT...

Possibly, but the ships were operating in full view of about 100k pairs of unfriendly eyes. I'd expect UA forces knew exactly what was going on in the port even without RT's assistance.

Expect a missile strike on the building with the camera.

Look at the effect that smartphones had on the police. Suddenly, there were no secrets. Everybody is George Holliday (the guy pointing a camera at Rodney King.)

This is the first modern war in a fully technologically developed nation. We live in an era of smartphones, webcams, GPS tagging, social media, and encrypted internet connections in almost every household. That changes the way war works, the same way it changed (well, is changing, hopefully) the way policing in the US works. Hell, what do you think the chances are that Zelensky is quietly getting real-time feeds from our best orbital surveillance tech? It's something that is going to have to be taken into account and planned around in every conflict going forward. OPSEC is a completely different beast now. Armies are always going to be under unfriendly eyes, and unlike in previous wars, those eyes don't just grumble. They're part of a real-time hive mind. OPSEC is going to have to go from keeping quiet to stage magic levels of misdirection. At some point, the first step in an invasion won't be to take out air defenses. It will be to achieve an internet blackout. Internet/phone/GPS jammers (that may need to be developed), targeted strikes, even E-bombs (EMPs/EMP transmitters - whatever the military is keeping under their hat.)

And Russia, as has been demonstrated so effectively by Ukraine, isn't fond of updating their military doctrines or modernizing their forces. They're playing a game of Civilization and sending their muskets after Ukraine's tanks.

[Unagi]

Look at the effect that smartphones had on the police. Suddenly, there were no secrets. Everybody is George Holliday (the guy pointing a camera at Rodney King.)

This is the first modern war in a fully technologically developed nation. We live in an era of smartphones, webcams, GPS tagging, social media, and encrypted internet connections in almost every household. That changes the way war works, the same way it changed (well, is changing, hopefully) the way policing in the US works. Hell, what do you think the chances are that Zelensky is quietly getting real-time feeds from our best orbital surveillance tech? It's something that is going to have to be taken into account and planned around in every conflict going forward. OPSEC is a completely different beast now. Armies are always going to be under unfriendly eyes, and unlike in previous wars, those eyes don't just grumble. They're part of a real-time hive mind. OPSEC is going to have to go from keeping quiet to stage magic levels of misdirection. At some point, the first step in an invasion won't be to take out air defenses. It will be to achieve an internet blackout. Internet/phone/GPS jammers (that may need to be developed), targeted strikes, even E-bombs (EMPs/EMP transmitters - whatever the military is keeping under their hat.)

I was thinking a lot about this also. I was thinking how it seems like it may become harder and harder for anyone to be 'an occupying force' as our technology becomes more accessible to the world. Achieving the internet blackout would indeed be the goal... It's hard to do, as IIRC the internet's infancy/original design at universities, etc.. was to be easily routed around nodes being removed, etc.
I was also thinking about amateur drones a bit, like ones used against the US troops in Afghanistan - where they would simply zoom over a base or squad, and drop a live grenade. Very hard to defend against, especially for unprepared units on the move. Or an enemy holding your ports.

[malchior]

Hmm. This is interesting. I was aware of reports of this incident earlier in the week, heard he lost a leg, and was recovering in Belarus. Perhaps he died from his injuries since then. In any case, interesting to hear it getting some sort of confirmation.

[LordMortis]

I was thinking a lot about this also. I was thinking how it seems like it may become harder and harder for anyone to be 'an occupying force' as our technology becomes more accessible to the world. Achieving the internet blackout would indeed be the goal... It's hard to do, as IIRC the internet's infancy/original design at universities, etc.. was to be easily routed around nodes being removed, etc.
I was also thinking about amateur drones a bit, like ones used against the US troops in Afghanistan - where they would simply zoom over a base or squad, and drop a live grenade. Very hard to defend against, especially for unprepared units on the move. Or an enemy holding your ports.

If you are an evil occupying force, then I would think knocking out cell towers would be among the highest priority targets. It may not stop the recording and broadcasting but it sure makes it much more difficult and slow.

[malchior]

If you haven't seen this guy's tweets - they are pretty interesting. He is maintaining a theater map based on OSINT. Accuracy is obviously up in the air but a ton of good sources have praised the maps.

[Blackhawk]

Hmm. This is interesting. I was aware of reports of this incident earlier in the week, heard he lost a leg, and was recovering in Belarus. Perhaps he died from his injuries since then. In any case, interesting to hear it getting some sort of confirmation.

That's one frag.

[Blackhawk]

I was thinking a lot about this also. I was thinking how it seems like it may become harder and harder for anyone to be 'an occupying force' as our technology becomes more accessible to the world. Achieving the internet blackout would indeed be the goal... It's hard to do, as IIRC the internet's infancy/original design at universities, etc.. was to be easily routed around nodes being removed, etc.
I was also thinking about amateur drones a bit, like ones used against the US troops in Afghanistan - where they would simply zoom over a base or squad, and drop a live grenade. Very hard to defend against, especially for unprepared units on the move. Or an enemy holding your ports.

If you are an evil occupying force, then I would think knocking out cell towers would be among the highest priority targets. It may not stop the recording and broadcasting but it sure makes it much more difficult and slow.

It would be if your own tech wasn't so out of date that you needed to use them to relay orders to your own troops.

And no, knocking out the internet itself would be tough. Jamming it in strategic locations (say, placing high-range jammers, one per block, for a certain distance from bases/ports, etc.) would be viable. But you'd more likely be looking at taking out the devices that use the internet. Russia could do it today - pull out Kyiv, send in an air-burst nuke, and go back in sans surveillance. There are obvious drawbacks to that approach. But in the future, I'd expect more money to be spent on development of things like microwave EMP emitters. Take the port, bring in a couple of emitters (we're talking vehicle mounted devices here), wave them back and forth for a while, and bam - no electronics within range. Most cars would still work. The power grid might need repaired, as would anyone with a pacemaker. And as you move your forces, you repeat the process. Your columns follow behind an emitter knocking out communications as you approach, perhaps following behind a couple of specially designed defensive vehicles(designed sans electronics) to keep them safe.

[Unagi]

Yes. But back in reality, the Russians are having a lot of trouble pulling of WWII era logistics.

[Max Peck]

Hmm. This is interesting. I was aware of reports of this incident earlier in the week, heard he lost a leg, and was recovering in Belarus. Perhaps he died from his injuries since then. In any case, interesting to hear it getting some sort of confirmation.

That's one frag.

Other reporting is pushing back on the idea that the officer was killed, asserting that his lower legs were crushed but that he survived.

Not killed, feet crushed. Colonel Yuri Medvedev.

[malchior]

Also relevant and a bit surprising...because even Ukraine doesn't think it is true. Weird reporting.

That contradicts a statement released on Friday by Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, the chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian military’s General Staff, who claimed that the Kherson region was “under full control.”

Ukrainians in Kherson and Ukrainian officials also questioned the Pentagon’s assessment, saying that the city appeared to remain firmly in Russian hands, though Ukrainian forces are fighting across the broader Kherson region.

Any Ukrainian success in taking back Kherson would be a huge blow to Mr. Putin’s war effort, making it harder for Russia to follow through on any plans to seize control of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and the southern port of Odessa, defense officials said. Losing Kherson would also endanger Russian troops who have been fighting in nearby Mykolayiv, the Pentagon official said.

[raydude]

If one believes Jomini, and I kinda do, then the Russians already lost Mykolaiyv.

[malchior]

If one believes Jomini, and I kinda do, then the Russians already lost Mykolaiyv.

FWIW this has been trending this way for a few days. They might even cut off a group of Russian troops north of the river.

[malchior]

The Russian's gave a "briefing" about the war today. The new party line is that the initial phase is over and they only attacked the entire country to stretch out Ukrainian battle lines to win in the Donbass region. Sure Putin.

Edit:

Russia said it was refocusing its month-long military offensive in Ukraine on the country’s eastern Donbas region, in comments that suggested Moscow could scale back attacks in other parts of the country.

Speaking at a defence ministry briefing in Moscow on Friday, Sergei Rudskoy, a high-ranking official in the Russian army, said what the Kremlin has labelled a “special operation” in Ukraine was entering a new phase designed to fully “liberate” Donbas.

He described the targeting of other cities, including the capital Kyiv, as part of a strategy to distract the Ukrainian army.

[Daehawk]

If the Russians capture or kill one of those Americans with the USA patch I wonder what they think?

[Holman]

The Russian's gave a "briefing" about the war today. The new party line is that the initial phase is over and they only attacked the entire country to stretch out Ukrainian battle lines to win in the Donbass region. Sure Putin.

It's like when D-Day failed and FDR announced that the purpose of the whole operation was to secure the German-occupied Channel Islands for the UK.

Except that this Russian campaign has been more costly than even a failed D-Day would have been.

[YellowKing]

Losing 12% of my forces to "distract the enemy" sounds exactly like something I'd do in Age of Empires.

[Hamlet3145]

‘We never planned to storm them,’ Rudskoy said in reference to Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and other besieged towns.”

I just rolled my eyes so much they fell out of my head. Am blind now.

[malchior]

The nice thing about it is that this was like turning on the lights for the infestation of what bots/Putin apologists remained lurking out there. I saw some "Americans" parroting this line of thought for instance already. It isn't even being talked about in right-wing circle jerks yet. It is pretty much a bot tell-tale.

[Kraken]

"The grapes were sour anyway," Putin blinked.

This war could end sooner than we thought, if Putin is on the verge of declaring victory.

[Max Peck]

Hot take of the day, courtesy of Beau:

This explains why Russian generals are starting to fly the Gadsden Flag.

[raydude]

Even after all we've seen about the true capabilities of the Russian military, this guy seems to think Russia has a super cool hypersonic weapon.