Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Daehawk]

I go to stores because I have to not for fun. I cant imagine going to a movie theater.

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/RottenInDenmark/sta ... 4060974083

[Max Peck]

Things here continue to be peachy. We're not testing the general population any more, so the only metric that counts are the hospitalization (for COVID, not with COVID) and ICU (again, for COVID, not with COVID) numbers. The waste water monitoring has shown a sharp rise that seems to correlate to the removal of capacity limits and will eventually also reflect any impact from the subsequent elimination of masking requirements. We won't see any public policy adjustments unless we get to the point where the hospitals are once again in danger of collapse, at which point it will be too late do do anything because the outcome of the next few weeks from there will already be baked in. I'm guessing the provincial Powers That Be are hoping that nothing falls apart between now and the election in June.

[Smoove_B]

Everything is fine because hospitals aren't overrun.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1508513079633534989

New York state reports 2,010 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 83% from last week

[LordMortis]

Everything is fine because hospitals aren't overrun.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coron ... s-and-maps

500 hospitalizations is worlds better than 5000

1 or 2 more weeks of low hospitalizations around here and I'm easing up a bit for the spring/summer. I almost forgot to wear a mask inside Aldi today. Almost. I noticed cases in Washenaw county (university of Michigan) are reporting up trends this week, but not horribly so like this time last year and the year before. As to how many test were taken? *shrug* That's why it's about the hospitalizations.

The state suggests we are at 4.7 positivity rate. Not where you want to be but I imagine testing is way down and it's a whole hell of a lot better than 30% places are largely unmasked where ever I have to set foot inside.

Also Worldometers suggests we broke a million deaths. Pop the cork!

[stessier]

We got our weekly update from the state today and our case rate is basically flat. It was between 1000-1100 total cases for the previous week (can't remember the exact number) and this week's update shows 1095 (equates to a 21/100k rate). The graphs have all pretty much flattened out, except for deaths which continues to decline.

[Zaxxon]

I thought this Vox piece was a fairly good summary of where we are, how the CDC's guidance right now is not the most comprehensive, and how to act/think about local numbers going forward.

It might not be up to Smoove's standards, but I like it better than the CDC's current 'nothing to see here' approach.

While some people were no doubt thrilled to be given “official” permission, at long last, to unmask indoors in public, the experts who spoke to Vox for this story provided additional context for the new CDC metrics, and said there is still reason for caution. First, they explained, hospitalizations, which now make up two-thirds of the data points, are really about preventing system collapse versus mitigating personal Covid-19 risk or the threat that we as individuals pose to others.

The specifics of the CDC’s guidance change have received some strong pushback. “I very much disagree with the CDC threshold for transmission,” Jetelina says. “I think that there’s a really big distinction that people are missing: The CDC guidance uses 200 cases per 100,000 as a metric that people can take their masks off. But that’s people that can take their masks off because hospitals are not surging. That’s very different than people taking their masks off because the likelihood of infection is reduced. And that nuance — that small distinction — is being lost among the public. I very much think that 200 cases per 100,000 is too high to protect at an individual level.”

As emergency medicine physician Jeremy Faust puts it, the CDC “didn’t really show us their work on how [the new guidelines] protect the immunocompromised.”

...

Jetelina says that individuals can look at total new cases per 100,000 residents in the past seven days to determine the level of community transmission and to decide what activities they’ll engage in.

One easy way to get these numbers is to use the CDC’s Covid-19 integrated county view. (Note: Many trackers, like the New York Times’s county Covid tracker, show a daily average of cases per 100,000; the advice in this article is based on the weekly number.) Select your state and county from the dropdown menu and the page will update. Under the big bold “COVID-19 Community Level” — which, remember, is calculated using a combination of different metrics — you’ll be able to see the weekly case rate per 100,000.

Once you have your county data, here’s how Jetelina suggests thinking about your behavior and precautions if you’re vaccinated and boosted.

100 or more weekly cases per 100,000 people: high transmission
Wear a high-quality mask indoors in public
Avoid crowded indoor spaces where people are unmasked and/or where proof of vaccination isn’t required
Avoid flying on planes, if possible (Jetelina says the airport, versus the plane itself, is the main source of concern: “You will be walking through clouds of SARS-CoV-2 during a high transmission time,” she says.)
Avoid indoor dining
Consider crowded private gatherings (like house parties) a high-risk event
Be hypervigilant around higher-risk people
If you’re symptomatic, it’s probably safe to trust positive results on an antigen test, but if you get a negative antigen test you should test again in 24 hours

50–99.99 cases per 100,000: substantial transmission
Wear a high-quality mask indoors in public
Avoid crowded indoor spaces where fewer than 75 percent of people are masked and/or where proof of vaccination isn’t required
Flying on a plane and doing indoor dining is okay, though ultimately dependent on your personal risk tolerance
Consider crowded private gatherings, like house parties, a high-risk event
Be vigilant around higher-risk people
If you’re symptomatic, trust positive results on an antigen test, but test again in 24 hours if you get a negative antigen test

10–49.99 cases per 100,000: moderate transmission
You can be unmasked in public if you’re comfortable with it and aren’t experiencing symptoms or don’t have a known exposure
Unvaccinated companions (like, say, children under 5 who are not yet eligible for shots) should wear a high-quality mask in public indoor settings if possible
Flying and indoor dining is okay, though ultimately dependent on your personal risk tolerance
Be vigilant around higher-risk people
If you’re symptomatic, test again in 24 hours if you get a positive test or a negative test

Less than 10 cases per 100,000: low transmission
Unvaccinated companions (like, say, your children) should wear a high-quality mask in public indoor settings if possible, but you can be unmasked if you’re comfortable with it and aren’t experiencing symptoms or don’t have a known exposure
No restrictions on activities
If you’re symptomatic, trust negative results on an antigen test. If you get a positive antigen test, test again in 24 hours
If you live with a young child who can’t be vaccinated, Jetelina says it might make sense to behave as though your county transmission is one level worse than it actually is — e.g., when you’re in the moderate zone, take precautions as though it’s substantial, and when you’re in the high transmission zone, be extremely vigilant.

If all of the above feels overwhelming, one metric Faust suggests — 50 cases per 100,000 — is worth committing to memory. Faust recently did statistical modeling to determine when one-way KN95 or N95 masking would be enough to protect the severely immunocompromised — that is, when people who have zero protection from the vaccines would be fairly safe if they were the only people masked in a public setting. The number he landed on is 50 per 100,000, meaning you may want to mask in public and start making small changes to your behavior (more on that below) to protect others once your community reaches that threshold.

Faust designed his model with the most vulnerable people in mind, meaning the folks with some protection (that is, the vaccines gave them some antibody response, even if it wasn’t as strong as it would be in other people) or who are higher-risk for other reasons will also benefit from others’ precautions. Faust’s article, “When will one-way masking be safe enough for everyone?,” is really worth a read, especially if you’re curious about his methodology and the limitations of this model, but the tl;dr is this: Once your community reaches a weekly average of 50 cases or more per 100,000 people, it’s a good idea to start masking again in public if you want to protect yourself and others.

Lots more at the Vox link, but this is the gist. My county's at 29.9/100k weekly, so I'd be in the 'moderate' category.

[Smoove_B]

It is a good piece yes, and likely a more reasonable way to think of things. However, it still puts the action on the individual and relies too much on the belief that other people will follow suit when presented with the same information.

That said, I'm still firmly in the camp of "you don't want COVID" - even if you're vaccinated. I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

[Zaxxon]

It is a good piece yes, and likely a more reasonable way to think of things. However, it still puts the action on the individual and relies too much on the belief that other people will follow suit when presented with the same information.

Absolutely, and it does so under duress.

It can be frustratingly difficult to get straight answers. Much of the pandemic behavioral advice that does exist is still centered on assessing one’s personal risk, and the idea that once you’re vaccinated and boosted, you have nothing to worry about. “The communication around this has been abysmal,” Katelyn Jetelina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and the author of the Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter, tells Vox. “There’s no top-down guidance at all.”

...

While we absolutely need federal and state governments to do more to keep us safe (please, we’re literally begging you to upgrade schools’ ventilation systems, buy extra doses of antiviral pills and fund coronavirus aid, make it easier for people to access Paxlovid and Evusheld, and help vaccinate the world), we also can’t wait around for those structural changes to come through. We want and need to make smart personal choices, and also acknowledge that personal choices play a huge role in public health.

It's adjusting to the reality we live in, not the one we wish we lived in.

That said, I'm still firmly in the camp of "you don't want COVID" - even if you're vaccinated. I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

Yeah, I certainly don't want it, either. But we're past the point where it's reasonable to expect that a large (well, we're already past large--make this 'overwhelming') percentage of us won't get it (not because it has to be this way, but because society has decided that it will be this way), and we're over two years into nuking a large portion of what living life used to mean for a lot of folks. One might argue that continuing to take drastic measures with the goal of 'never get COVID' is irrational at this stage, unless one is willing to literally live as a hermit for the next decade-plus.

It sucks, in a somewhat similar way that it sucks that we're here in 2022 knowing that there's a high probability that Donald Trump becomes our next President and the GOP retakes control of Congress--it doesn't have to be this way, it clearly should not be this way if the country acted rationally, but it is this way. Poor analogy: I take this piece as the equivalent of an informed voter deciding to advocate for the specific elections they have a chance to help sway rather than yelling at clouds about how the GOP should be disbanded in favor of a productive, rational party with good-faith plans and policy proposals aimed at good governance. That latter option is clearly better for everyone (including the GOP!), but it's not going to happen in the foreseeable future.

[hitbyambulance]

I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

i have mentioned this before. if nothing else, i believe we're in for a perma-shrinking of the labor pool over the next number of years due to people disabled by long Covid and unable to work anymore.

[malchior]

I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

i have mentioned this before. if nothing else, i believe we're in for a perma-shrinking of the labor pool over the next number of years due to people disabled by long Covid and unable to work anymore.

One thing I fear for this is that we don't exactly treat "non-productive" people well. I have a friend whose sister has been living with chronic fatigue for a very long time. I knew her before whatever happened and I've seen what's happened over the last 20+ years and it's heartbreaking. She has long dealt with people who think her condition is fake. Or that she's lazy. Prior to whatever caused it (probably Lyme's) she was non-stop. The change we saw in her was so dramatic that we assumed it was drugs at the time.

In any case, this will be a whole lot of that with a shit ton of COVID denial. How long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness? It feels like it is a matter of time.

[Zaxxon]

How long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness?

It's 'today' long if you define 'widely' the right way (within the right circles).

[Smoove_B]

It genuinely feels like 50 years from now people are going to try to understand how we forced kids to attend school unmasked and unvaccinated. To restate, we required that they go into a building while a novel respiratory virus was spreading and didn't require that they wear masks to protect themselves and others; we actively discouraged it.

I mean...when we forced kids to work underground mining coal here in America 100+ years ago, we gave them leather caps and lanterns. We're not even trying now.

[LordMortis]

One thing I fear for this is that we don't exactly treat "non-productive" people well. I have a friend whose sister has been living with chronic fatigue for a very long time. I knew her before whatever happened and I've seen what's happened over the last 20+ years and it's heartbreaking. She has long dealt with people who think her condition is fake. Or that she's lazy. Prior to whatever caused it (probably Lyme's) she was non-stop. The change we saw in her was so dramatic that we assumed it was drugs at the time.

As someone who became that guy, you do not want. I'm fortunate, in that I made a good living, didn't have a family to raise, and don't have a desire to have things. I feel for others. And the idea that we may have created countless more chronically conditioned populace is heart breaking.

[Max Peck]

How long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness?

It's 'today' long if you define 'widely' the right way (within the right circles).

[Zarathud]

My hope is that long-term COVID-19 shows that blaming the sick can no longer be an excuse to force them to bear health care costs individually. No person can completely protect themselves and the herd will turn out not to be immune.

Since the burden will fall on conservatives, I expect they will eventually demand help rather than take individual responsibility. Because they’re hypocritical. Like Crack was an urban city moral problem, but OxyContin is a national crisis requiring lawsuits. It’s only real when it happens to conservatives.

Maybe I’m just looking for some silver lining. Sigh.

[Smoove_B]

It really is amazing how everything changes once you adjust how it's communicated.

https://twitter.com/wsbgnl/status/1509230490242355206

One third of counties are at substantial or high transmission according to the prior CDC covid metric

[Smoove_B]

In any case, this will be a whole lot of that with a shit ton of COVID denial. How long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness? It feels like it is a matter of time.

Sort of related (and crossing a few topics), this study was published today:

https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/ ... 5485000715

New study shows white Americans who learn about Covid's racial disparities have:

1) reduced fear about Covid
2) reduced empathy for those vulnerable to Covid
3) reduced support for Covid protections

White supremacy directly increases Covid's harms.

No matter how bad it gets, there's always room to find things that are worse. It's unreal.

[Daehawk]

I went maskless to Walmart today. Its been 2 years since being in a store maskless except for the couple times I forgot it. I just wanted to do it in between breakouts of new mutations...just once. Im so tired of masks. Ill probably catch COVID and die now.

[UsulofDoom]

I went maskless to Walmart today. Its been 2 years since being in a store maskless except for the couple times I forgot it. I just wanted to do it in between breakouts of new mutations...just once. Im so tired of masks. Ill probably catch COVID and die now.

Live free and die!

I'm in CT. most are not wearing masks. I don't now.

I had my 2 Moderna shots and a booster 3 weeks before Christmas. Then caught it 2 weeks later. Just lost smell and taste for 3 days then fully came back 5 days from when i lost it. I must be super immune now.

[Unagi]

I must be supper immune now.

You will need to rely on dinner from now on.

Spoiler:

sorry, just made me giggle, not trying to be an asshole.

[UsulofDoom]

I must be supper immune now.

You will need to rely on dinner from now on.

Spoiler:

sorry, just made me giggle, not trying to be an asshole.

You had to be a asshole!

Definition of asshole

2ausually vulgar : a stupid, annoying, or detestable person

[Unagi]

I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

[Smoove_B]

Why People Are Acting So Weird?

During the pandemic, disorderly, rude, and unhinged conduct seems to have caught on as much as bread baking and Bridgerton. Bad behavior of all kinds —everything from rudeness and carelessness to physical violence—has increased, as the journalist Matt Yglesias pointed out in a Substack essay earlier this year. Americans are driving more recklessly, crashing their cars and killing pedestrians at higher rates. Early 2021 saw the highest number of “unruly passenger” incidents ever, according to the FAA. In February, a plane bound for Washington, D.C., had to make an emergency landing in Kansas City, Missouri, after a man tried to break into the cockpit.

...

One likely explanation for the spike in bad behavior is the rage, frustration, and stress coursing through society right now. When Christine Porath, a business professor at Georgetown University, collected data on why people behave in rude or uncivil ways, “the No. 1 reason by far was feeling stressed or overwhelmed,” she told me.

...

“When someone has that angry feeling, it’s because of a combination of some sort of provocation, their mood at the time of that provocation, and then how they interpret that provocation,” said Ryan Martin, a psychology professor at the University of Wisconsin at Green Bay who studies anger. Not only are people encountering more “provocations”—staffing shortages, mask mandates—but also their mood is worse when provoked. “Americans don’t really like each other very much right now,” he added.

[Isgrimnur]

Or that the people actually capable of empathy are staying home, leading to the assholes running into each other more frequently.

[Daehawk]

I wonder when I can get my 2nd booster? Got my booster (3rd shot) in Nov 2021.

[Smoove_B]

After breakfast, before Elevenses.

The recommendation is 4 months after your first booster. However, should you? It's complicated.

[UsulofDoom]

I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

Thats what makes you AN asshole!

[Unagi]

I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

Thats what makes you AN asshole!

That's not remotely in line with how we should treat each other here.

[Max Peck]

Why People Are Acting So Weird?

[UsulofDoom]

I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

Thats what makes you AN asshole!

That's not remotely in line with how we should treat each other here.

Thats why I put it in my SIGNATURE! Yet you had to do it. You're a grammar bully!

[Zaxxon]

Could we maybe not?

[hitbyambulance]

omg

[Blackhawk]

Why People Are Acting So Weird?

[Smoove_B]

Interesting things unfolding in MA:

https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/15 ... 0329293825

Something interesting is happening with #COVID19 in MA, where case incidence appears much higher right now in wealthier suburbs. My guess is one of two things is happening, neither of which bodes well. First, the data. We are seeing average daily rates > 20 per 100K in towns like Manchester, Sherborn, Wayland, Concord, and Wellesley. In contrast, it’s <= 5 in Chelsea, Lawrence, and Brockton. This isn’t a formal analysis and there are counterexamples, but you get the idea. Hypotheses 1: This is the #UrgencyOfNormal crowd. Wealthy suburbs with high vaccination and booster rates are dropping pandemic precautions at a faster rate. This is certainly happening anecdotally. Now in many respects this is logical from an individual perspective. Vaccines and boosters work well, and wealthier populations generally fare better with, well, everything. Except what happens In Wellesley doesn’t stay in Wellesley. Infectious diseases spread.

And if the people in places with high case incidence are less likely to be hospitalized because of vaccines and wealth, that means hospitalizations won’t move up as quickly. That’s a good thing, except if you use hospitalizations as your metric for statewide action.

[Kraken]

Interesting things unfolding in MA:

Today was my packie's spring wine tasting (not in any of the named 'burbs). From their Facebook video, it looks like it was well-attended. I congratulated them on their success and expressed regret for missing it, but it's still too coviddy out there to feel comfortable in a crowded room of unmasked strangers.

I wonder what the odds are that anyone there got sick. They probably had around 300 people spread over 3 hours.

[Sudy]

Just my own anecdotal post-mask-mandate story (nothing interesting here):

Today was the first time I've been out shopping, both since the Ontario mask mandate was dropped, and since some science officials have proclaimed we've entered a 6th wave. Even here in the city, I was surprised to see some people without masks, including the security guard at the pharmacy. I just don't get it. The provincial government is no longer interested in protecting us. (A move I hope backfires spectacularly in the coming election, but I suspect it won't.) We have to protect one another.

On the other hand, I've stopped wearing my mask some of the time in the apartment building when I take out the trash after hours because I know it's so unlikely I'll run into someone. I also stubbornly never shaved my beard nor upgraded to N95s. But I mean, I've been off or worked from home for most of the pandemic. I may have to return to an office environment in the near future and am contemplating how to proceed. I'm reluctantly willing to accept that masks are here to stay in indoor spaces, at least sporadically throughout the year. But between being overweight (breathing/sweat) and having a giant cabeza (fit/size issues), I loathe having to contend with the things. But everyone else who couldn't dodge public spaces for the past two years made it work; I'll have to too. Going to the hospital has been an annoyance as their masks they insist I switch to barely fit my face and constantly ride up. I should remember to bring some elastics to try the ear-loop hack.

[Grifman]

New more contagious and severe variant may be on the way:

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... kapJhNDPDw

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/15 ... 3190534150

[Unagi]

God damn twitter.
Forcing everyone to type in teenage-headline