Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[YellowKing]

I'm pretty much mask-free now except where required. I'm not going out of my way to engage in risky behavior, but I'm also trying to be realistic about the risk as a vaxxed and boosted individual.

[LawBeefaroni]

Coalmine report:

6th grade canary had a classmate test positive yesterday. Class is going remote for unvaxxed, in person for vaccinated. Masks optional.

Kindergarten canary's classmate's parent tested positive yesterday. Classmate is being PCRd. If positive, classroom shuts down for 5 days.

[Blackhawk]

In regards to masks, I'm watching and judging based on each scenario. Rates, ventilation, building size, crowdedness, etc. Rates are less of a factor than before, because stupidity.

Class is going remote for unvaxxed, in person for vaccinated.

More schools doing that would probably do more vaccination rates than all the reasoning in the world. People have chosen to live only by their immediate, easily recognized self interest. You combat that by making sure that it is in their immediate, easily recognized interest to do that right thing.

[LordMortis]

I see this week Michigan moves from reporting M,W,F to just reporting W. That's a good thing, right?

[Zaxxon]

I see this week Michigan moves from reporting M,W,F to just reporting W. That's a good thing, right?

The more opaque the data, the more we all get on with our lives. Because freedom, upcoming elections, and stuff.

[Max Peck]

Study estimates Quebec recorded up to 32,000 new daily COVID-19 infections last week

There were between 18,000 and 32,000 new COVID-19 infections per day last week across Quebec, according to an estimate released Friday by a Montreal-based research centre.

The results of the study by CIRANO should make Quebecers take the sixth wave of the pandemic seriously, Roxane Borges Da Silva, a professor at Université de Montréal's school of public health who worked on the research, said in an interview.

If their estimate is accurate, then the actual number of new infections per day are roughly an order of magnitude higher than the official numbers (the official number of new cases yesterday was 2,615).

[Max Peck]

Hospitalizations are simultaneously slightly decreasing and increasing 30% week-on-week? Pick a lane!


Ontario seeing estimated 100k new COVID-19 cases a day: Science Table leader

Ontario's real daily COVID-19 case count "has never been as high as right now," Dr. Peter Juni of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Table tells CityNews. He adds people's behaviours have changed so much recently that previous modelling no longer applies.

For comparison, the official case count for the last day was 3,444. It's amazing how less scary the numbers become if you just don't test people.

Sick children are flooding CHEO, Ontario emergency rooms with COVID-like symptoms in 'dramatic increase'

There appears to be a surge in the number of children admitted to emergency rooms with serious symptoms of COVID-19 — some reporting the highest number of visits since the pandemic began years ago.

In the last two weeks province-wide, 89 children have been hospitalized. The recent spike in children-related infections comes in Ontario as another Canadian province, Québec, restored its mask mandate.

That is leading to growing calls for the Ford government to do the same.

“We’re seeing kids who are having high fevers. Kids where it’s painful for them to breathe and some kids that need oxygen supplementation,” ER physician Dr. Brett Belchetz said in an interview with CityNews.

Many emergency departments are experiencing a steady flow of young children, primarily unvaccinated, with COVID-like symptoms.

McMaster’s Children’s Hospital in Hamilton tells CityNews that more than 1,600 children with COVID-19 concerns visited the ER in the first two months of 2022.

I'd bet that there is roughly a zero probability that Ford reinstates any NPI measures ahead of the election. There is too much overlap between his support base and the Freedom Convoy demographic.

[LordMortis]

A have agreed to do an in and out Easter dinner at may parents. That will be the most personal risk I've taken on since March 2020. I'm also agreeing to a retirement party with a bit more lingering and alcoholic beverage at the end of the month.

The former concerns me less, because the person I am most trying to protect is my mother, who is hosting the event. We'll see how things feel at the end of the month. The party is for me but I'm still not quite there, even if I am getting closer, much closer. Hospitalizations remain lower four weeks after the opening party weekend for the year, which also takes me six weeks out from my last vaccination and I'll have much better sense for things in another two to three weeks.

I suspect spread is worse than reported, given the amount of non reported at home testin, and non testing in general. But bad juju from spread still seems stably down when I am expecting an upward trend.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coron ... s-and-maps

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

[Smoove_B]

Last year we were all talking about if we knew anyone that had it. This year I suspect the conversations will be about the people we know that have had it 2 (or more) times in 60 days.

[Zaxxon]

Last year we were all talking about if we knew anyone that had it. This year I suspect the conversations will be about the people we know that have had it 2 (or more) times in 60 days.

Progress! America! Fuck yeah!

[Smoove_B]

Hey, what's going on here...

https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513684781845856263

U.S. orders non-emergency government employees and family members to leave Shanghai due to COVID surge and restrictions

Everything is fine.

[Daehawk]

I went to town maskless to all stores. Not done that in 2 years and probably shouldn't but eh.

New Covid-19 variant on the rise in the U.S.

Another Covid-19 variant is on the rise across the United States. BA.2, a sublineage of Omicron, is responsible for more than three-quarters of the cases nationwide.

Twenty-seven states are seeing a rise in Covid-19 cases. Here at home, it's business as usual. Cases aren't on the rise, yet.

"It's not an if, it's a when but the big question marks at this point though are because we had such a bad BA.1 spike is what is this one going to look like because there is some cross-protectivity. So we had so many people get Omicron when it went around the first time, in our region that a lot of them between that and vaccination wafts will have some degree of protection," Dr. Jensen Hyde of Erlanger Medical Center said.

[LordMortis]

Nearly every one was masked at Aldi yesterday and things are still in decline or, at the very least, flat around here. I should Costco today in the mostly new form of traditionally conservative municipality next door. We'll see what that's like. Yesterday was a pleasant surprise, at least, though not so much when a single bag of budget groceries cost $30. It wasn't but three years ago, a full shopping cart of groceries was about $50 if it didn't have cleaning or toiletry supplies. That was about 4-5 bags of groceries for me.

[Smoove_B]

I went to town maskless to all stores. Not done that in 2 years and probably shouldn't but eh.

Deciding to unmask now in a public setting during a surge is...an interesting choice. Be safe my friend.

In other news. Colorado is ramping up the wastewater surveillance with some help from the feds:

Now, as the federal government expands its wastewater testing effort, Colorado has begun to extend its surveillance project to the entire state. The state’s public health agency is now working with 47 wastewater utilities that serve about 60% of Colorado’s population.

...

Rachel Jervis, an epidemiologist with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, noted that wastewater testing can offer an early warning sign about where covid spread is highest. “We found that up to 50% of people will shed covid virus in their stool regardless of whether or not they have symptoms,” she said.

The state compiles the data from a variety of sites on a public dashboard. It also shares its numbers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About $9.4 million in federal funds is paying for the state’s wastewater testing project from January 2021 through at least July 2023. The total includes personnel, supplies, equipment, and contracts.

Surprising connection to Massachusetts:

The South Platte team sends the wastewater samples it collects to a Massachusetts company called Biobot Analytics. Its mission: “population health analytics powered by sewage.”

Would be nice if they planned on using this information, but I guess we'll see, right?

[malchior]

I went to town maskless to all stores. Not done that in 2 years and probably shouldn't but eh.

Deciding to unmask now in a public setting during a surge is...an interesting choice. Be safe my friend.

I'm seeing almost complete abandonment of masking in central Jersey. I'm going to an event tonight - I bought these tickets in 2019 and we'll see but 'masking is encouraged' is the guidance. I'm expecting nearly none. I guess we could stay home but us personally wearing our mask seems like an acceptable compromise now.

[Smoove_B]

I'm seeing almost complete abandonment of masking in central Jersey. I'm going to an event tonight - I bought these tickets in 2019 and we'll see but 'masking is encouraged' is the guidance. I'm expecting nearly none. I guess we could stay home but us personally wearing our mask seems like an acceptable compromise now.

The bar has been lowered (again) and I believe people (broadly) are just in the "might as well get it and get it over with" mentality now. What seems to be getting lost (like, completely and totally lost):

(1) Kids under 5, still not vaccinated
(2) Long COVID, and probably most concerning for the average American
(3) Repeated infections

For #3, there really seems to be confusion with a general belief that you're going to get COVID-19 (like the Chicken Pox) and be done with it. As I said a few weeks ago, 2022 is going to be the year of people talking about how many times they've had it, at least at the rate we're going.

There is value in (1) delaying your first infection and (2) minimizing the number of times you get it.

My parents went to a high school reunion last weekend in a county that is currently experiencing the highest rate of cases in our state (I believe numbers were ~225/100K). My mom said they did lots of hand washing and didn't sit close to people, but of course they didn't wear masks. In a hotel. With hundreds of other people. Despite me educating them, they cannot process that it's in the air and that it lingers (like measles). Still very much focused on 6ft distance and handwashing to prevent it. I'm genuinely concerned that later this week they're both going to start showing symptoms.

We have completely lost the narrative on this. The virus has absolutely won.

The silver lining overall is that our hospitalizations (in Jerz) seem to be remaining low, even as cases have been rising the last few weeks. That is a good sign the vaccines are helping. However, as the virus is still spreading to people and re-infecting others, the chances for complications and long COVID increase. So sure, we're back to "it won't kill you, it's no big deal" but aren't thinking through what life in America will be like with millions and millions of people of all ages suffering from chronic conditions related to having COVID-19.

[LordMortis]

The silver lining overall is that our hospitalizations (in Jerz) seem to be remaining low, even as cases have been rising the last few weeks. That is a good sign the vaccines are helping. However, as the virus is still spreading to people and re-infecting others, the chances for complications and long COVID increase. So sure, we're back to "it won't kill you, it's no big deal" but aren't thinking through what life in America will be like with millions and millions of people of all ages suffering from chronic conditions related to having COVID-19.

I have moved to the it's less likely to hospitalize you and hospitals can handle the case load. So it's hygiene and no lingering for now, but I've opened up traveling non essentials from gaming with sanitary conscious friends to non essential shopping with masks. This weekend will be a big leap. I will do a non lingering dinner without masking around non sanitary family. I only do this because mom will be having that dinner with or without me. It's going to be a very uncomfortable couple of hours. Even as the risk change is negligible for me, I don't want be around the portion of my family that has paid lip service to the entire pandemic, even as they've lost family and are angry family died without taking invermectin. I'm not going to be able to escape these conversations, and I don't know how engage because there will only being talking past people and frustration.

I'm sincerely hoping the outlook is good at the end of the month because "my" retirement party for work, is going to be the big change. Maybe, it'll be warm enough to be largely outdoors and that's what "they" plan. I dunno.

[Zaxxon]

Still very much focused on 6ft distance and handwashing to prevent it.

It is pretty absurd how much this is still the focus so prevalently. I mean, having hand sanitizer and glass in UPS stores and the like is never a terrible thing, but it's not doing what folks think it's doing.

I'll admit to being on the edge of making some more relaxed choices that our family hasn't to this point in the pandemic:

• The kids have had a friend or two over, inside. These are kids they spend all day in school with, and at this point my kids are nearly literally the only ones wearing masks at school. They're exposed to these kids.
• We may extend that to a sleepover. Again, I am not seeing a rational reason to believe that continuing to withhold this kind of play from my kids would provide any significant increased protection. (My kids, and most of their friends, are vaxxed.) It's absolutely affecting them, their friendships, and their place in the school social order. Their risk from COVID is low, and their risk of a lifetime social/developmental hit is high.
• I have sold every one of my NHL tickets this season, and last season, and the end of the prior season but am considering going back for the playoffs. This is far and away the riskiest thing I'm considering, as it would be packed and most folks would undoubtedly be unmasked. But entering the third year of this, and with no end in sight (esp since the country has decided that we aren't interested in reaching an end state), it's getting tougher and tougher for me to hold on. And during an historic season, no less.
• I don't think we'll do it, esp with cases considering a rise, but I've even considered letting the kids stop masking at school. If 90%-95% of the school isn't masking, how much benefit are my vaxxed kids actually seeing from continuing to do so? Does that benefit outweigh the very real social consequences of continuing to mask? This is a question I didn't have to deal with when more of the school was being reasonable, but it's becoming more of an issue. FWIW, the school did get an upgraded HVAC system last summer.

That any of these things is still an issue at this point is infuriating--especially given that my family has been, without a doubt, in the top 1% of 'most responsible through the entire pandemic thus far.' At some point, however, choices need to start being made with the understanding that despite...

There is value in (1) delaying your first infection and (2) minimizing the number of times you get it.

...being 100% true, at some point the costs outweigh even those caveats. We're still having groceries delivered, mostly working from home, airing out the house when visitors have been there, defaulting to outside visits most of the time, not flying on planes, avoiding public bathrooms, etc et etc. When does the balance flip to the point where continuing to live as though this pandemic will ever end through action of our peers becomes the irrational choice?

This thread's title has officially jumped the shark--it's not a marathon, not even an ultra-marathon.

[$iljanus]

(1) Kids under 5, still not vaccinated

So in my town the numbers of vaccinated people for all age groups is pretty good. But the 5-11 age group as a whole in MA ain’t that good. I have a vested interest in that number because I volunteer in my church’s Children’s Ministry and as soon as the mask mandate was lifted almost all the kids and quite a bit of the staff started going maskless. Now if all the kids were from Lexington I wouldn’t be as concerned since again, the vax rate is pretty good for 5-11 kids. But families from all around MA worship at my church and some towns are pretty good while others are really dismal. So I’m still approaching my church as a hot zone and keeping my mask.

In the end it’s just a matter of time before numbers start to really spike. Hopefully, it will be more of an inconvenience rather than something that will send people into the hospital. That said if people don’t get their kids vaccinated I’m sure some variant will come along that may be a bit more nasty than omicron.

[Zaxxon]

(1) Kids under 5, still not vaccinated

In the end it’s just a matter of time before numbers start to really spike. Hopefully, it will be more of an inconvenience rather than something that will send people into the hospital. That said if people don’t get their kids vaccinated I’m sure some variant will come along that may be a bit more nasty than omicron.

Amen to both of these. Has there been any news on < 5 timing? We are reaching theater of the absurd levels considering that COVID is being moved to a 'remember those times?' situation by the same gov't not allowing < 5 to get vaxxed.

[Smoove_B]

Amen to both of these. Has there been any news on < 5 timing? We are reaching theater of the absurd levels considering that COVID is being moved to a 'remember those times?' situation by the same gov't not allowing < 5 to get vaxxed.

"Potentially May" is the last I'd heard. Was not an enthusiastic promise. I'm guessing with the belief that it's seasonal, pushing it over the late spring / early summer is going to be a harder sell (when we'd expect fewer cases overall). Ideally it is released and we can actually increase vaccination rates for Fall of 2022 as I'm expecting it to be another wacky year end experience.

But as $iljanus noted, uptake for the vaccine in kids (broadly) is terrible. Depending on what part of the country you're in, it might as well have not been released for kids 5+ because rates are so low. It's beyond depressing - especially to read (via social media) the number of parents of kids <5 that are still trying to do everything they can to protect their kids from infection as society has largely moved on.

at some point the costs outweigh even those caveats

Absolutely. Like you, our family is still largely socially distant. When around strangers (indoors), we're masked. We have the proverbial circle of trust, but if that is intentionally violated or disregarded, there will be a price. My parents have at least acknowledged that they intentionally engaged in high risk behavior and understand that Easter dinner with us is now in jeopardy. We've tried to invite friends of my daughter over for socializing, but she's being difficult (understatement of 2022).

But yes, we're still doing everything we can to reduce risk. I'm still picking up groceries curbside. Not eating indoors at restaurants. Working remotely when possible, masking at work otherwise (my job requires it; my wife's job does not). Still trying to delay what is likely the inevitable at this point.

[Zaxxon]

But as $iljanus noted, uptake for the vaccine in kids (broadly) is terrible. Depending on what part of the country you're in, it might as well have not been released for kids 5+ because rates are so low. It's beyond depressing - especially to read (via social media) the number of parents of kids <5 that are still trying to do everything they can to protect their kids from infection as society has largely moved on.

The one (well, it feels like the only one) bright spot for me is that despite my county's overall ridiculousness re: politicization of masks, 'parent choice,' and all that hullaballoo, our 5-11 vax rate is well above our surrounding counties, at 54%. Still terrible relative to the adult rate, but I had heard to expect that it might stall out in the 30s, so I'll take 54% for now.

[stessier]

You live in the land of Milk and Honey.

[Zaxxon]

You may need to start raining arcane destruction.

[YellowKing]

If we have a virus that seemingly doesn't care about natural immunity, aren't we pretty much screwed anyway? Even under the best case scenarios we were not going to have 100% vaccination (to go a step further, we'd require not only 100% vaccination, but 100% people following up with regular boosters).

[Isgrimnur]

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, that ship has completely sailed. What we should be trying to do now is everything we can to stop uncontrolled spread - what we've been experiencing here in American (and globally) since March of 2020. There's even a name for this type of disease occurrence (where there are cases all over the world at the same time). I''ll leave it to the faithful reader to ponder what we call that.

So yeah, we have possibly addressed the death and hospitalization angle with vaccinations - which is awesome, of course. But for some reason cannot grok the idea of stopping spread, which means we all continue to be at risk for not only the current strain circulating wildly, but future strains that are out there right now testing things out in various meat sacks as we allow the virus to continue to propagate.

In summary, we should be pushing for increased global vaccination (reduces hosts), advocating for the use of NPI to stop spread (masking), and hoping that we can figure out risk factors and treatments for people at risk and/or suffering from Long COVID.

Until then? This is life.

[Smoove_B]

I mean...wow.

https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513922859776843784

CDC confirms 3.5 million Americans died in 2021, making it the deadliest year in U.S. history. 416,000 people died of COVID-19, the 3rd leading cause of death. In comparison, Influenza has caused between 12,000 to 52,000 deaths annually in the past decade.

[Jaymon]

I have become fatalistic. Humankind is lost. Covid-19 may or may not mutate into something with extreme deadliness, but that no longer matters. Because our response has set a precedent. Humanity will treat the next pandemic the same way, and the next one might be the one that triggers the apocalypse. Sure sure, some people and some countries have done the thing. But it wasn't enough. We are going down.

[Isgrimnur]

I'd say it was a good run, but...

[El Guapo]

Upstairs neighbor just tested positive. Mild thus far, at least.

[stessier]

Upstairs neighbor just tested positive. Mild thus far, at least.

Most people would just say "my kid".

[Unagi]

Upstairs neighbor just tested positive. Mild thus far, at least.

Most people would just say "my kid".

Although, I must say, I think I may just start using ‘upstairs neighbor’ from now on.

[Isgrimnur]

I'm glad I didn't buy the place.

And 30 Rock still isn't funny to me.

[LordMortis]

Not wading into the end of the human race, I did go to Costco today and it was as I figured it would be. Virtually no one masked and nothing low on stock. Such a stark contrast to my Aldi where virtually everyone was masked and the shelves were often bare.

What did catch me off guard was getting the stink eye, presumably for mask wearing today. That was a first. Trying to figure out if renewing Costco is worth it. They don't save me money so much anymore. $90 didn't even fill two bags of groceries but they do reliably have what I'm looking for from them. I don't think the problem is Costco, per se, but that my Costco is in one of the most actively political conservative locations in the state.

[Kraken]

I mean...wow.

https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513922859776843784

CDC confirms 3.5 million Americans died in 2021, making it the deadliest year in U.S. history. 416,000 people died of COVID-19, the 3rd leading cause of death. In comparison, Influenza has caused between 12,000 to 52,000 deaths annually in the past decade.

Yes, and life expectancy went down again for the second year in a row.

Today our positivity rate hit my arbitrary trigger of 3%, so we're shutting down indoor dining again after tomorrow night's birthday dinner. We're getting our second boosters on Friday. I hope that this surge will be mild and short-lived with summer right around the corner, but I'm going to treat it as an emergency, like all the previous surges.

[gbasden]

I don't think the problem is Costco, per se, but that my Costco is in one of the most actively political conservative locations in the state.

I don't think the problem is Costco, as when I went to mine yesterday all employees were masked as were about 60% of the shoppers.

[Max Peck]

The local wastewater monitoring may be indicating that the current wave, driven by BA.2 on the back of the removal of NPIs, has peaked. However it is also possible that the signal is being distorted by dilution from snow melt and stereotypical April showers (we've had a fair amount of rain lately). Either way, it is still far higher than any of the earlier waves, almost 3 times the peak of the initial Omicron wave.

[Zarathud]

Hooray for spring break vectors!

[Blackhawk]

And now all wastewater data from Indiana has been removed from public view as well. We have the (now meaningless) positive test data as the one and only way to see what's happening in the state. We are limited to making blind fucking guesses about something that could kill us and cripple our children.