Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[MHS]

https://twitter.com/jwpnfld/status/1552310640278212608

It's been extremely disheartening to realize just how many people thing that we are expendable, yeah. It's weird for me to consider that my new normal may continue to be that I never eat inside of a restaurant, go into a movie theater, or visit a casino poker room again. It's a good thing I'm ok with online interaction as my primary form of social contact, but every time a client wants in-person training, it gets harder and harder for me to imagine how to stay employed in my current job.

[Zarathud]

We took our chances at Medieval Times yesterday. It’s dinner theater but around a track where the horses and fights happen. It was a lot of fun, and the food was much better than I expected.

We masked on the way in and out, but not during the meal service or the following battles. Since it’s in the suburbs, there were only a few others in masks.

Our attitudes shifted further as my sister plans to live in constant quarantine WFH with her toddler despite getting vaccinated. 4 day quarantine and two sets of negative tests to visit is more protection than Biden gets. I’ll get boosted in August, but we can’t live in hiding when our daughters go back to an excellent school with 4000+ other teens. We’re not going to lick the turnstiles at the train station, but Pandora’s box is opened. We’re now only trying to avoid the worst odds. Delay is possible, but eventually we’ll lose the dice roll.

[RMC]

https://twitter.com/jwpnfld/status/1552310640278212608

It's been extremely disheartening to realize just how many people thing that we are expendable, yeah. It's weird for me to consider that my new normal may continue to be that I never eat inside of a restaurant, go into a movie theater, or visit a casino poker room again. It's a good thing I'm ok with online interaction as my primary form of social contact, but every time a client wants in-person training, it gets harder and harder for me to imagine how to stay employed in my current job.

Can you look for a hospital job in thje training department? They do some onsite in person training in my hospitals, but everyone has to wear a mask, and we still distance ourselves. I mean, it's not all 100% good, but for the most part we do things remotely if you can, enforce masks, and keep hand sanitizers on all the walls.

But yeah, I think this sucks for people with conditions that really mean they should not be around people that are not worried about catching it.

[MHS]

Can you look for a hospital job in thje training department? They do some onsite in person training in my hospitals, but everyone has to wear a mask, and we still distance ourselves. I mean, it's not all 100% good, but for the most part we do things remotely if you can, enforce masks, and keep hand sanitizers on all the walls.

But yeah, I think this sucks for people with conditions that really mean they should not be around people that are not worried about catching it.

I think the most likely trajectory for me is that I transition out of my training role and into more of a project management role, or barring that, take a pay cut and transition to technical support or QA or documentation or something. I am extremely fortunate to work for a small company where I have spent the last 17 years helping to build that company, so the owner/CEO feels an obligation to me that I wouldn't get anywhere else. If I tell him I am willing to do all the web-based training and whatever other WFH work can be done but that I'm no longer willing to travel at all, he will do what he can to make that happen. I'm awfully damn lucky to get that kind of support.

[Smoove_B]

As someone that offers (and attends) web-based training programs, I'm amazed at how much has changed over the last 2+ years with respect to how it's being done. it definitely feels like more of a viable option and the ability to attend and/or offer training programs to people from all over is rather impressive. I've managed to carve out my own little corner and I'd recommend if you can at least add some online training to your skill set, now is the time. Not only would it make you more flexible in your current role but on the off chance there's some issue with your current employer, you have a a skill that would allow you to cast a much wider net for future jobs. I've actually had to turn down two opportunties in the last few years because I'm on overload and at capacity, but if something happens with my current employer I'm no longer as worried I'd be in trouble finding new work. YMMV.

[MHS]

As someone that offers (and attends) web-based training programs, I'm amazed at how much has changed over the last 2+ years with respect to how it's being done. it definitely feels like more of a viable option and the ability to attend and/or offer training programs to people from all over is rather impressive. I've managed to carve out my own little corner and I'd recommend if you can at least add some online training to your skill set, now is the time. Not only would it make you more flexible in your current role but on the off chance there's some issue with your current employer, you have a a skill that would allow you to cast a much wider net for future jobs. I've actually had to turn down two opportunties in the last few years because I'm on overload and at capacity, but if something happens with my current employer I'm no longer as worried I'd be in trouble finding new work. YMMV.

I have done online webinars for my whole career with this company, although a lot of our clients still prefer in-person, but unfortunately, the training I do is in a very niche market, so I don't know how transferable it is.

[Smoove_B]

Ah, ok - I wasn't sure. The training I provide is also rather niche but the ability to create and offer online training is definitely a marketable skill set. I've been leaning hard into it for the last 2+ years after being mostly ambivalent about it for the last ~10. I believe in you!

[LawBeefaroni]

Loyalty is a great thing but there are a lot of new opportunities out there. Can't hurt to look around in your spare time Might even come up with new ideas for the old company.

(Says I who have changed jobs once in 26 years and find LinkedIn to be too cumbersome to bother with, so take it FWIW)

[LordMortis]

Loyalty is a great thing but there are a lot of new opportunities out there. Can't hurt to look around in your spare time Might even come up with new ideas for the old company.

(Says I who have changed jobs once in 26 years and find LinkedIn to be too cumbersome to bother with, so take it FWIW)

Shy of 24 years... And I just couldn't make it to 25. Not that there was any special making it to 25 except the 25 year anniversary present whatever that would have been. I got nice Honda lawnmower for 20. It sips gas (about 1.5 gallons a season) and still starts on about the 5th pull the first time of the season and has been the first pull every time thereafter.

[hitbyambulance]

i've been burned by loyalty-to-current-company several times. never again.

[RMC]

Loyalty is a great thing but there are a lot of new opportunities out there. Can't hurt to look around in your spare time Might even come up with new ideas for the old company.

(Says I who have changed jobs once in 26 years and find LinkedIn to be too cumbersome to bother with, so take it FWIW)

Right there with you, I have been at this job for almost 15 years, but advancement and raises have happened enough to keep me happy. And high enough on the chain of command now, that I get to make decisions and not be told what too do, well, too much.

But there are lots of opportunities out there, and it never hurts to dip your toe in those waters. Heck, most of my meetings are virtual now a days, even when I am onsite at the hospitals or in my office at the management center. <shrug> Wish you luck, and hope everyone finds the perfect job for them.

[Smoove_B]

The new normal:

On COVID-19 mortality:

Let’s focus in what follows on the extremes: the US and Japan. It is astonishing how different the outcomes are of these two high-income countries. The cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate in the US is currently 12 times larger than in Japan.

On excess deaths:

The differences across G7 countries are even starker through the lens of excess mortality. Again the US and Japan stand out. The cumulative excess mortality rate in the US is currently 7 times higher than that of Japan.

Demographics:

One could point to other factors that may have played a role. But the overall point here is that Japan’s performance has been remarkable when placed in international perspective. Japan’s demographic profile (chart above) makes this performance all the more remarkable: Japan has the 2nd oldest population in the world (after Monaco). Even so and despite the fact that COVID-19 is an age-discriminating disease, Japan has managed to keep mortality at surprisingly low levels.

[LawBeefaroni]

Don't want to stereotype but Japanese culture tends to be less about "me" and more about "us". I mean they voluntarily wear masks during flu season. We have fist fights about wearing masks in the height of COVID.

[Smoove_B]

That's part of it, but there is more government involvement with policy - individual citizens have a different relationship with their government (and view it differently) than we do here. So (for example) when the Japanese officials recommend things or *gasp* require them, you don't have the same reaction there as you do here in Freedom Jesusland.

[Smoove_B]

They're really going to need to come up with a new way to communicate these things if they want to continue to try an minimize information in the Fall.

https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1555643054534582273

As of August 4, over 84% of US population is in a location w/ a medium or high #COVID19 Community Level. If you live in a medium or high community level, consider taking steps to protect yourself & others, like masking.

Find your COVID-19 Community Level: https://bit.ly/36RiqiR

[Zaxxon]

Meanwhile, my county is somehow now Low.

[Max Peck]

It's reassuring to see headlines like this:

Ford says Ontario getting health care it needs despite hospital department closures

...amid the never-ending deluge of headlines like this:

Mom raises red flag over staff shortage at Kingston hospital
Glengarry hospital not fully reopening as planned
As Ontario ERs buckle, nurses' groups want international applicants' licences expedited
Nursing shortage to blame for Perth ER closure, says physician
Unions call on Ontario to act amid health-care staffing shortages, ER closures
Montfort, Carleton Place hospitals close ERs this weekend

[Zaxxon]

Quick snapshot of How Things are Going Right Now™: First day of school today. Last night we got an email: older daughter's teacher tested positive and will miss the first four days of school.

[LawBeefaroni]

Masking still mostly around 50% in my neck of the woods. Menard's yesterday was surprisingly in the 30-40% strange which is up.

I've been back to masking when I go to store and have cut out bars/restaurants unless we can sit outside.



School starts in two weeks. All we've heard about is how they plan to fortify from shootings. Not a peep about COVID.

[LawBeefaroni]

Citywide Chicago hospital beds in use for COVID is 4.6% (365 total). For reference, Jan peak was 24.0%/1.9K. Which is why most people thinking no biggie.

But it's the same as the May 2021 and Sept 2021 surges. It's also on a pretty sustained upward trend since April.

[LordMortis]

Quick snapshot of How Things are Going Right Now™: First day of school today. Last night we got an email: older daughter's teacher tested positive and will miss the first four days of school.

I might be cutting my one guilty pleasure out. Eating a quick in and out meal with my parents at a restaurant until the next vaccine > I can get > two weeks after. I may try to get a last bite or two in with them before school starts. I believe school moved back to August 26th here. That would give me another couple of weeks.

No one is masking anywhere, here.

Reported cases, positivity rates, and hospitalizations are all on the slow boiling frog before school is letting in.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coron ... s-and-maps

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/15 ... 9447160832

Please don't be numb to the persistent and serious risk of Covid. We're currently losing 500 Americans lives a day, more than double our nadir a year ago.

I just continue to be astounded at what we accept - what we accept over refusal to wear masks in public indoor spaces.

[Blackhawk]

I promise not to be apathetic, but I can't help being numb.

[Smoove_B]

Someone pointed out its a bit like how we compartmentalize driving a car, namely the risk of death you experience every time you get behind the wheel. We just accept ~100 deaths a day (~36K a year) as part of the cost of being able to drive everywhere. Where I struggle is the jump for COVID. We're on track to see ~180K deaths a year and that's not enough to move the needle. That's ~5x the amount and there's not even a hint that it matters.

I've asked (rhetorically) before - public health tries to address so many causes of preventable death as part of our core function. If people don't care about preventing an excess of 180K deaths a year, what number do they care about? 600K cancer deaths each year? 700K heart disease deaths each year? Is all this doomed from the start because 180K deaths a year doesn't even begin to register on the public interest scale? It's just the cost of modern life now?

[malchior]

Meanwhile Biden is speaking at the signing of the climate oops CHIPS bill and he's had several ugly coughing fits. We know it is a rough disease but modeling a struggle to minimize its impact is a grim choice.

[Zaxxon]

I've asked (rhetorically) before - public health tries to address so many causes of preventable death as part of our core function. If people don't care about preventing an excess of 180K deaths a year, what number do they care about? 600K cancer deaths each year? 700K heart disease deaths each year? Is all this doomed from the start because 180K deaths a year doesn't even begin to register on the public interest scale? It's just the cost of modern life now?

To be fair (oh boy, why am I doing this?), the # alone has to be combined with the cost of action. And while the objective costs of action (wearing a mask, getting your shots) are low, the subjective costs are, for the overwhelming majority of Americans, quite high at this point.

Is that selfish? Absolutely, especially from the perspective of immunocompromised folks. But it's a reality. Click a seatbelt to drastically reduce auto death probability? Sure. Vote to increase cancer research funding? Absolutely. Continue not seeing friends/family, not traveling the way folks are accustomed to, not socializing kids at school fully, etc 2.5 years into the pandemic? Very different question.

[Smoove_B]

To be fair (oh boy, why am I doing this?), the # alone has to be combined with the cost of action. And while the objective costs of action (wearing a mask, getting your shots) are low, the subjective costs are, for the overwhelming majority of Americans, quite high at this point.

Is that selfish? Absolutely, especially from the perspective of immunocompromised folks. But it's a reality. Click a seatbelt to drastically reduce auto death probability? Sure. Vote to increase cancer research funding? Absolutely. Continue not seeing friends/family, not traveling the way folks are accustomed to, not socializing kids at school fully, etc 2.5 years into the pandemic? Very different question.

That's where I struggle - we're in a self-fulfilling loop here. If we could all agree that wearing masks indoors when it makes sense (public places, work spaces, mass transit, schools, etc...) it would ultimately lower the amount of circulating virus and make those non-masked interactions less risky. Instead, we've seemingly said wearing masks during some specific scenarios and not others is too much to manage, so screw everything and just completely ignore it all, raising risk in every single instance.

Given the low cost (arguably free if supported by the government) associated with masks, it's instead a matter of interest/support. We absolutely need to invest in better air handling / filtering technology. I get the resistance there as it's likely going to cost billions of dollars (aggregated) to create safer indoor spaces. But mask wearing right now? Pennies on the dollar.

[Blackhawk]

And then there is the problem with big numbers. Our brains aren't equipped to grasp large numbers. Everything past X gets abstracted and lumped into 'helluva lot', at which point increasing numbers stop being meaningful. For most people, 100,000, 180,000, and 500,000 are effectively the same number. Even the Ghostbusters got it - they went with Twinkie metaphors to explain their large numbers.

When people stopped seeing pictures of freezer trucks full of corpses, the numbers effectively stopped changing as far as people could tell - they got up to 'too many to grasp' and they stayed there. Fluctuations are meaningless to most people, and throwing more numbers at them is pointless.

Bombarding them with actual examples would probably be more effective. Bring back the piles of bodies. Bring back the stretchers in hallways. Focus on the people suffering from real consequences. Bring back the Twinkie.

[LordMortis]

I've asked (rhetorically) before - public health tries to address so many causes of preventable death as part of our core function. If people don't care about preventing an excess of 180K deaths a year, what number do they care about? 600K cancer deaths each year? 700K heart disease deaths each year? Is all this doomed from the start because 180K deaths a year doesn't even begin to register on the public interest scale? It's just the cost of modern life now?

To be fair (oh boy, why am I doing this?), the # alone has to be combined with the cost of action. And while the objective costs of action (wearing a mask, getting your shots) are low, the subjective costs are, for the overwhelming majority of Americans, quite high at this point.

Is that selfish? Absolutely, especially from the perspective of immunocompromised folks. But it's a reality. Click a seatbelt to drastically reduce auto death probability? Sure. Vote to increase cancer research funding? Absolutely. Continue not seeing friends/family, not traveling the way folks are accustomed to, not socializing kids at school fully, etc 2.5 years into the pandemic? Very different question.

Understood. Now we can post the same thing in the climate thread and the police abuse thread and the 21st Century Republican thread and the Desantis thread. We're not a very good or consistent people. We are what we are. It hurts but it's a reality. This is not to single you out nor even be righteous. I won't be giving up my AC until you make me or I'm flat broke. This is who we are.

[Zaxxon]

Understood. Now we can post the same thing in the climate thread and the police abuse thread and the 21st Century Republican thread and the Desantis thread. We're not a very good or consistent people. We are what we are. It hurts but it's a reality. This is not to single you out nor even be righteous. I won't be giving up my AC until you make me or I'm flat broke. This is who we are.

Exactly. And to be clear, I'm not defending it. It just is.

[LordMortis]

Also, the only reason I imagine I'm Smoove light is because if I killed my mom that would be it for me. I'm immunosupressed with all the high risks except being 80 and diabetic and if it weren't for my mom, 2.5 years would likely be too much for me, like it is for nigh everyone else, even here. It continues to take its toll.

[coopasonic]

I was expressing my anxiety to my wife about my return to the office next month. I haven't gotten my second booster (yay, old) as I was kind of waiting on newer formulations. She was pretty much completely dismissive of my anxiety. I mean I can't blame her as I have practically made a career of waving off her concerns. I don't expect to see much masking in the office and as a "go with the flow" person, I will likely follow the crowd. Properly masking would mean shaving and buying actually good masks vs the trash cloth I've been wearing for the past 2.5 years.

Basically I guess I've given up. Work is forcing my hand and I can't be bothered to take the most basic precautions. Staying home is really easy, I wish they'd just let it be.

Sorry, not sure any of that had a point.

[Smoove_B]

Oh yeah, I don't blame anyone here or think you're necessarily making decisions in a vacuum. There was a survey shared this morning that I've been noodling on:

The survey, conducted amid a surge in cases of the coronavirus BA.5 omicron subvariant and spreading cases of monkeypox, found that:

Over half of Americans (54%) personally know at least one person who has died of Covid-19.
Nearly 1 in 3 (31%) know someone who has experienced long Covid.
Most of the public knows someone who has tested positive for Covid-19 despite being fully vaccinated – or being fully vaccinated and boosted.
A majority of Americans (54%) say they rarely or never wear a mask indoors when with people from outside their household – more than double the proportion in January.
4 in 10 (41%) say they have already returned to their “normal, pre-Covid-19 life” – up from 16% in January.

More to the point:

“After more than two years of experience with Covid-19 and its effects, the public is largely aware of the nature and risks of infection,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center. “A consistent percentage does not believe a pre-Covid normal will ever be restored. But a growing number have returned to their pre-Covid life. One can only hope that those in each group have accurately calculated the risks and benefits that their decision entails.”

We've largely accepted this new steady-state where people believe they can accurately gauge their own personal risk. May the odds ever be in your favor, citizen.

[Smoove_B]

Basically I guess I've given up. Work is forcing my hand and I can't be bothered to take the most basic precautions. Staying home is really easy, I wish they'd just let it be.

My wife works in corporate and I'm pretty sure she's one of maybe 5 people (on a campus with a few thousand) wearing a mask in the office. She's working 3 days at home / 2 days in the office, as required. They were told (with a straight face) the reason fully remote isn't an option is because "some conversations need to happen face to face", which is hilarious.

[Zaxxon]

Basically I guess I've given up. Work is forcing my hand and I can't be bothered to take the most basic precautions. Staying home is really easy, I wish they'd just let it be.

My wife works in corporate and I'm pretty sure she's one of maybe 5 people (on a campus with a few thousand) wearing a mask in the office. She's working 3 days at home / 2 days in the office, as required. They were told (with a straight face) the reason fully remote isn't an option is because "some conversations need to happen face to face", which is hilarious.

I hope they are taking full advantage of other current workplace trends such as facsimile machines, carbon-copy paper and Clippy.

[ImLawBoy]

Just tell people you had cancer. Not only does no one look sideways at me when I'm masking in the office, but they usually reach for theirs when they see me (if they're not wearing it already). Of course, I'm in Illinois and I imagine the attitudes might be a bit different in Texas.

We're such jerks we made my parents (and the twins) mask in the car when they took the twins to the zoo last week. They're way too out and about for us to trust them!

[Smoove_B]

I hope they are taking full advantage of other current workplace trends such as facsimile machines, carbon-copy paper and Clippy.

I should also note that during the fully remote days (most of 2020, all of 2021) they somehow managed to take in record-level profits - best years on record. But I guess it all happened without being able to speak face-to-face, so imagine what they're going to be able to do this year!

[Zaxxon]

they usually reach for theirs when

I'm way out here in purple Colorado, but the idea that others have masks within reaching-for range is adorable.

[ImLawBoy]

they usually reach for theirs when

I'm way out here in purple Colorado, but the idea that others have masks within reaching-for range is adorable.

I had to get a haircut last week (turns out that a pro bono roundtable I was presenting at was in person and not virtual as I had originally thought and I haven't had a cut in almost a year), and I went to a local old school barber in my new neighborhood. When I walked in wearing a mask, my barber went over to his station without me asking and grabbed a mask out of his drawer. When it came time to do work around my ears, he reached into another drawer and took out one of those straps that he put around my mask loops so I never had to remove my mask.

Chicago has some problems, no doubt, but there are also some perks to living here!

[coopasonic]

Somewhat good news... After making that post, I ordered a pack of N-95s.

I really thought the area I live in, which is pretty diverse but also not cheap, was better than the reputation Texas has, but the past few years have really shown me how wrong I was. I lasted less than a week on nextdoor.