The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by noxiousdog »

Anonymous Bosch wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:28 pm
hitbyambulance wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:20 pm speaking as an outside observer on this thread from the beginning - the whole tenor seems to be you having your own feeling of 'what REALLY went down' and attempting to find anything at all to support your particular feeling - and pushed, prodded and promoted to the point that i wonder what agenda underlies it, and why..
My 'agenda' has not changed since I started this thread: it struck me as a topic worthy of discussion, that ought not be summarily swept under the rug and dismissed as crackpottery simply because a perceived majority of one group or another deems it heretical. We may never possess completely irrefutable evidence for either the zoonotic or lab leak hypotheses. So I freely acknowledge that the lab leak hypothesis remains only that, and also that the pandemic certainly could have stemmed from a zoonotic jump in the wild, which is why I support Professors Harrison and Sachs "batshit insane" notion of further independent inquiry into the virus’s origins. If expressing that opinion diverges from most in this forum? Oh well.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It hasn't been swept under the rug and treated as crack pottery. It was treated as a significant matter and multiple studies have been done. Evidence continues to pile up for zoonotic and against lab leak. Over and over and over. (see: climate change)

When you continue to ignore evidence, it becomes an agenda. This idea that the scientific community as a whole is against crazy ideas it just conspiracy theory. Look at the ongoing MOND vs dark matter. In my opinion, that should have been settled decades ago, (and you'd think James Webb telescope would kill that already dead horse), but no, the money keeps flowing to MOND.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Anonymous Bosch wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:28 pmMy 'agenda' has not changed since I started this thread: it struck me as a topic worthy of discussion, that ought not be summarily swept under the rug and dismissed as crackpottery simply because a perceived majority of one group or another deems it heretical. We may never possess completely irrefutable evidence for either the zoonotic or lab leak hypotheses.
I wholeheartedly agree that your agenda has not changed since you started this thread.

People with your agenda always seem to confuse "investigated this possibility and found that there is no evidence for it happening, so it is an unlikely cause - especially where there are giant piles of evidence that point to this other cause" with being "swept under the rug". You are persisting in it, not because the evidence suggests that it is still a viable theory (it is not). You are persisting in it because it's the theory you WANT to believe (for some reason).

That's the part people are trying to figure out - why you are so pre-committed to the idea that this theory is correct, despite several independent studies conducted by actual experts that investigate these things, which have all concluded that this theory is incorrect. When presented with evidence that they are wrong, credible people admit it and move on. I'm not sure why this is so difficult for you, but it causes others to wonder why.

It doesn't help that the only people still pushing this theory are doing so for political purposes, so that they can blame it on a political adversary.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:59 am
Anonymous Bosch wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:28 pm
hitbyambulance wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:20 pm speaking as an outside observer on this thread from the beginning - the whole tenor seems to be you having your own feeling of 'what REALLY went down' and attempting to find anything at all to support your particular feeling - and pushed, prodded and promoted to the point that i wonder what agenda underlies it, and why..
My 'agenda' has not changed since I started this thread: it struck me as a topic worthy of discussion, that ought not be summarily swept under the rug and dismissed as crackpottery simply because a perceived majority of one group or another deems it heretical. We may never possess completely irrefutable evidence for either the zoonotic or lab leak hypotheses. So I freely acknowledge that the lab leak hypothesis remains only that, and also that the pandemic certainly could have stemmed from a zoonotic jump in the wild, which is why I support Professors Harrison and Sachs "batshit insane" notion of further independent inquiry into the virus’s origins. If expressing that opinion diverges from most in this forum? Oh well.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It hasn't been swept under the rug and treated as crack pottery. It was treated as a significant matter and multiple studies have been done.
I appreciate that, but let's not forget that efforts were undeniably made by those with significant conflicts of interest aimed at doing precisely that, and consequently cited for over a year by social media platforms as a means to censor speculation about COVID-19 origins that ran contrary to the perceived "scientific consensus" orthodoxy, as chronicled below by Oxford University's Student Newspaper:

Conflicts of Scientific Interest: The Investigation into the Origins of COVID-19
www.oxfordstudent.com wrote:In this age of space-ships and nucleotides, it is all too tempting to let scientists go off, do their business and accept whatever conclusions they come back with. However, recent revelations in the lab-leak theory shed light on how even professionals of our most trusted profession are subject to conflicts of interests, necessitating greater transparency and public scrutiny.

On 19th February 2020, when there had been just 2,129 coronavirus deaths worldwide, one of the world’s most respected medical journals, The Lancet, published twenty-seven scientist’s joint statement professing a scientific consensus against the lab-leak theory. “We stand together”, they proclaimed, “to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin”. For over a year the Lancet statement was used by social media fact-checkers to classify claims disputing the origin of COVID-19 as categorically false. But on 14th May 2021 a new statement of “18 prominent scientists” had been published in Science Magazine refuting the claims of the Lancet statement, calling for a serious examination of “hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillover”, and by 27th May 2021 President Joe Biden had ordered a review of COVID-19 origin theories.

How, then, did the lab-leak theory go from fringe conspiracy, against the scientific consensus, to be lauded by scientists as a possible explanation of COVID-19’s origins?

Emails obtained in November 2020 via public records requests revealed that Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, a US-based non-profit with a self-professed mission to “develop science-based solutions to prevent pandemics”, had organised the statement. Daszak asked two scientists, “who had collaborated with Shi Zhengli [the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s (WIV) lead coronavirus researcher], to ‘not sign this statement, so it has some distance from us’”, explaining “We’ll then put it out in a way that doesn’t link back to our collaboration so we maximize an independent voice”.

In May 2014, EcoHealth secured a “grant of roughly $3.7 million” from the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a U.S. government department), tasked with “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence”. This included manipulating coronaviruses, “performing gain-of-function experiments”, “to see which animal viruses were able to jump to humans”.

Just a few months later, the U.S. Government announced a pause on funding for any new gain-of-function research projects that could increase the transmissibility of SARS viruses (note that SARS viruses are coronaviruses) and encouraged scientists to voluntarily pause existing research. EcoHealth did not. A 2016 study, listed on the project details page for EcoHealth’s grant, conducted at the WIV, developed and used a new method for genetically engineering coronaviruses. Meanwhile a 2015 study, for which experimentation was performed prior to the funding pause, engineered a coronavirus that “replicated efficiently in primary human airway cells”.

Furthermore, EcoHealth regularly funds research that involves transporting bat-related coronaviruses from remote to densely population urban area. For example, a 2013 study transported “two novel bat coronaviruses” over 1800km from remote caves in an isolated region in Yunnan, the location of the “closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2”, to Wuhan, a city of 8 million.

Concerns have also been raised about the safety of research at the WIV. American diplomatic cables “warned that sloppy safety protocols… in the lab ‘represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.’”

EcoHealth’s willingness to engage in various forms of risky research, even against the expressed wishes of the U.S. government, led Richard Ebright, Laboratory Director at the Waksman Institute of Microbiology, to liken “Daszak’s model of research… to ‘looking for a gas leak with a lighted match.’”

As Jamie Metzl pointed out, it should therefore be no surprise that Daszak was so keen to set the scientific narrative on the origin of COVID-19: if SARS-CoV-2 had a natural origin he and his life’s work would be justified and validated despite criticism for his risky approach from sections of the scientific community; if SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab, he and his field of work would be held responsible for the worst pandemic in a century.

Despite his significant and undeclared conflicts of interest, Daszak continued to play an influential role in the inquiry into the origins of COVID-19. When the WHO invited the U.S. to “recommend experts for a fact-finding mission in Wuhan”, none of the three recommended scientists were selected. The only representative selected from the U.S. was Daszak. He proceeded to take part in a mission described by “internal U.S. government analysis… [as] inaccurate and even contradictory”, during which he unquestioningly accepted Shi Zhengli’s assertion that the “WIV’s database of… 22,000 virus samples and sequences… had been taken offline… due to hacking attempts during the pandemic”, despite being taken offline on 12th September 2019. Daszak went on to say that “we did not need to see the data… a lot of this work has been conducted with EcoHealth Alliance… [so] We do basically know what’s in those databases… simple as that.”

Mounting evidence increasingly left scientists and politicians with no choice but to reject the crafted narrative of a scientific consensus. A key turning point was the revelation that “three researchers at the WIV, all connected with gain-of-function research on coronaviruses, had fallen ill in November 2019, and… visited hospital with symptoms similar to COVID-19”. Soon after it was found that “researchers [at the WIV] had collaborated… with, and “engaged in classified research… on behalf of, the Chinese military since at least 2017.’” One such study submitted in April 2020 tested “the susceptibility… of engineered mice with humanized lungs… to SARS-CoV-2”. The date of publication indicated that the mice had been engineered sometime in the summer of 2019, begging the question why the Chinese military had begun engineering mice to test their susceptibility to a virus that was now known to exist? In addition, “Shi Zhengli’s own comments… and grant information… suggest that in the past three years her team has tested two novel but undisclosed bat coronaviruses on humanized mice.”

In the absence of conclusive evidence for a natural spillover, we cannot outright rule out the lab-leak hypothesis. More fundamentally, the number of unanswered questions remaining over activities at the WIV raise legitimate and important concerns about its role in the outbreak of COVID-19. As time passes the quality of biological evidence will deteriorate, memories fade, and vested actors have more time to mould evidence to their wishes. There is a running clock, and so far, Peter Daszak, the WHO, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology have all failed to provide transparent inquiries into the origins of COVID-19.
noxiousdog wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:59 amWhen you continue to ignore evidence, it becomes an agenda.
Physician, heal thyself. Because there's evidence supporting both hypotheses that I acknowledge and you ignore, which is why even a staunch advocate of the natural origin hypothesis like Anthony Fauci has somewhat softened his position to now concede:
newshub.co.nz wrote:Speaking to Newshub Nation, Dr Fauci addressed the 'lab leak' hypothesis which claims SARS-CoV-2 - the virus which causes COVID-19 - escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

"There's always the question: was this a lab leak from things that were being done in laboratories? You want to keep an open mind and we all should keep an open mind on that," he said.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:05 pmPeople with your agenda always seem to confuse "investigated this possibility and found that there is no evidence for it happening, so it is an unlikely cause - especially where there are giant piles of evidence that point to this other cause"
People with your agenda always seem to confuse their own mischaracterizations for the views of others.
RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:05 pmThat's the part people are trying to figure out - why you are so pre-committed to the idea that this theory is correct
That's your distorted misrepresentation of my position which I have no interest in gratifying.
RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:05 pmIt doesn't help that the only people still pushing this theory are doing so for political purposes, so that they can blame it on a political adversary.
Right, because you have the monopoly on truth, and can thus declare in absolute terms that every scientist, researcher, investigator, and journalist who has made the case for acknowledging and keeping an open mind about the possibility of a laboratory spillover event alongside natural zoonotic transmission can only be doing so for strictly partisan purposes.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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I see this thread keeps carryin' on, doing the same thing over and over and over again.

Which is quite fitting given the way the pandemic has played out.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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When I was in college the student newspaper disputed the origin of banana slugs. The administration (the man) squashed the debate by making it the team mascot.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Ok, I'll add more:
What does your paper add that is new?
Nobody disputes that there were a lot of early cases associated with the market. The question was, could the virus have come from elsewhere and just been amplified at the market? First, we did a lot of detective work to see if there was a geographical relationship between those early cases. Their geospatial coordinates had been available but nobody had conducted that kind of analysis before. Importantly, when we excluded the early cases that had a direct link with the market – meaning the patient had been there – the association with the market became even stronger. That’s consistent with the virus acquiring the capacity for human-to-human transmission at the market, so that people who hadn’t been there started catching it from those who had. It radiated out like ripples on a pond.

...

Now, if the virus had escaped from a lab, somebody would have had to get infected with lineage B in the lab, go to the market and infect people there without having infected anyone along the way, and then somebody else would have had to do the exact same thing with lineage A a few weeks later. It’s not impossible, but a simpler explanation is that the virus was brought to the market in an animal, from where it spread to other animals, diverging in the process. The two lineages then spilled over separately into humans.
Regarding origin:
Have you ruled out that a lab leak caused the pandemic?
I don’t think you could ever completely rule it out, but we have demonstrated pretty conclusively that it came from the market.
Regarding China:
Could more be found out?
Yes. We’re still trying to establish the susceptibility to Sars-CoV-2 of the various species that were on sale at the market. I’d like to see information about the farms where the animals were raised, and any samples taken from those animals before the farms and the market were closed, and the animals culled. These might allow us to identify the intermediate host – the animal from which the virus likely jumped to humans. I’d be curious to see human serology data too, to find out if people working in the live animal trade in 2019-20 had elevated levels of Sars-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood.

It is possible that this information exists and we’re not being given access to it, and this is one of the hardest things to discuss with people who support the lab leak theory. If you look at it from the Chinese government’s point of view, though, it’s actually worse if this came from the market. After Sars they were supposed to have cracked down on the live animal trade, so it’s hugely embarrassing for them if the same thing happened again – especially in a city where world-class coronavirologists work. One thing is clear: no meaningful further studies will happen without Chinese collaboration, and this debate has damaged the chances of that.
Oh wow, actively using political cudgels to accuse China of releasing a virus has ruined the ability for us to investigate this further?

Regarding the origins overall:
What should we take away from this origins debate?
Every time a new virus emerges there is a debate over its origins. It’s important to have it, but often there’s an unrealistic expectation that the explanation will be simple. Some of the language doesn’t help – the term “patient zero”, for example. If there were multiple spillover events it may not be theoretically feasible to identify the first person who got sick. You can never entirely prevent the debate from being politicised, but you can do the analyses that are most likely to persuade serious scientists. Some critics will never be satisfied. In the case of Sars-CoV-2, they are twisting themselves into ever more complicated logical pretzels to keep the lab leak theory alive.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Good luck in your quest for this to have been a lab leak event.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Jaymann wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:01 pm When I was in college the student newspaper disputed the origin of banana slugs. The administration (the man) squashed the debate by making it the team mascot.
You went to UC Santa Cruz?
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Alefroth wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:16 pm
Jaymann wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:01 pm When I was in college the student newspaper disputed the origin of banana slugs. The administration (the man) squashed the debate by making it the team mascot.
You went to UC Santa Cruz?
Excellent deduction.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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I had my morning coffee in a slug mug. What years were you there?
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Alefroth wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:31 pm I had my morning coffee in a slug mug. What years were you there?
Old school '69 - '72.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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That must have been an interesting period.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Oh wow, Jeffrey Sachs just did a podcast over the weekend with noted anti-vax lunatic Robert Kennedy Jr? That's so weird that they would be running in the same disinformation circles.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:39 am Oh wow, Jeffrey Sachs just did a podcast over the weekend with noted anti-vax lunatic Robert Kennedy Jr? That's so weird that they would be running in the same disinformation circles.
No. No. I'm told he is a very serious person with many accomplishments.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:39 am Oh wow, Jeffrey Sachs just did a podcast over the weekend with noted anti-vax lunatic Robert Kennedy Jr? That's so weird that they would be running in the same disinformation circles.
Enlarge Image

Realistically, what we know about the origins of the pandemic remains limited by disclosures from Chinese authorities. This much is clear: Both circumstantial cases, for a laboratory origin and for a market spillover, have been made in the absence of crucial evidence that might very well exist. But China has an interest in withholding evidence for both pandemic-origin hypotheses, likely preferring the doubt and uncertainty surrounding a circumstantial stalemate over conclusive evidence one way or t'other. After all, each implies official negligence in its own way, and disinformation, censorship, and propaganda are the modus operandi of the CCP, podcasting prowess of Robert Kennedy Jr. notwithstanding.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Well, if nothing else I think we agree that China actively hides information - not just COVID-19, but historically for other outbreaks as well. I don't excuse it in any way, but I can at least understand why they might be inclined to be less than forthcoming, namely with numbers and dates. It's because they know eventually politically motivated bad actors are going to appear on a grifters shitty podcast and claim they're in cahoots with Anthony Fauci and the NIH to develop bio weapons.

Regardless, I am confident Sachs is going to be removed. Soon.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:22 pm Well, if nothing else I think we agree that China actively hides information - not just COVID-19, but historically for other outbreaks as well. I don't excuse it in any way, but I can at least understand why they might be inclined to be less than forthcoming, namely with numbers and dates. It's because they know eventually politically motivated bad actors are going to appear on a grifters shitty podcast and claim they're in cahoots with Anthony Fauci and the NIH to develop bio weapons.

Regardless, I am confident Sachs is going to be removed. Soon.
FWIW this probably isn't the motivation since Sachs is at best a China booster if not an outright agent. He is pushing the bioweapon angle because it is the Chinese unofficial official story about COVID. To wit, COVID-19 didn't leak from one of their labs because the United States intentionally released it in the wild to frame China. It's messier than that because the story is (probably intentionally) diffuse due to it spreading through social media channels.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Back on Sachs:
Perhaps Sachs' unorthodox perspective on the origins of COVID-19 could be taken in better faith if he did not disparage the entire U.S. medical establishment while associating with known lunatics. In August, Sachs joined the podcast of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, probably the most influential anti-vaccine campaigner and conspiracist, for an episode on the “Origins of the Virus.” Sachs laid out how he came to suspect the true origin of COVID despite being “lied to so many times.” He praised research by US Right to Know, a group funded primarily by the Organic Consumers Association which is a bastion of anti-vaccine conspiracies. The podcast ended with a plug for Kennedy’s book “The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health.”

What’s most interesting about Sachs’s repeated claim that he’s “pretty convinced [COVID] came out of US lab biotechnology” is what he tends to gloss over––where China fits into all of this. Sachs seems to suggest that the US funded research ultimately triggered a catastrophic leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology sometime in late 2021. But he’ll never say it. Instead, his focus is on American malfeasance in funding nefarious research, “especially from Tony Fauci’s unit, the NIAID.”
Summarized:
Jeffrey Sachs is so devoted to his kumbaya diplomacy and the idea that American power is the root of all evil that he’s turned himself into an anti-American propagandist. He has as much business running a commission on a virus that emerged from China as a creationist does running an evolutionary biology department. And yet, here we are.
It's a good piece.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Zaxxon wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:49 pm I see this thread keeps carryin' on, doing the same thing over and over and over again.

Which is quite fitting given the way the pandemic has played out.
Whelp, add DoE to the (short) list of agencies now pegging a lab leak as the most likely cause.
The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress. [...]

The new report highlights how different parts of the intelligence community have arrived at disparate judgments about the pandemic’s origin. The Energy Department now joins the Federal Bureau of Investigation in saying the virus likely spread via a mishap at a Chinese laboratory. Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission, and two are undecided.

The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees a network of U.S. national laboratories, some of which conduct advanced biological research.

David Relman, a Stanford University microbiologist who has argued for a dispassionate investigation into the pandemic’s beginnings, welcomed word of the updated findings. “Kudos to those who are willing to set aside their preconceptions and objectively re-examine what we know and don’t know about Covid origins,” said Dr. Relman, who has served on several federal scientific-advisory boards. “My plea is that we not accept an incomplete answer or give up because of political expediency.”
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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"A new classified report by the U.S. Energy Department has concluded with "low confidence" that it is plausible the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a laboratory leak, two sources familiar with the U.S. government's pandemic origins investigation tell CBS News."
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

And then you have the National Security Advisor throwing out that they don't have agreement between agencies. Someone with an agenda leaked this story. Probably for political reasons. Because god knows we need more discord in this country.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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noxiousdog wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:28 am "A new classified report by the U.S. Energy Department has concluded with "low confidence" that it is plausible the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a laboratory leak, two sources familiar with the U.S. government's pandemic origins investigation tell CBS News."
I don't have a WSJ sub and was going off of the summary, which seems to conflict with the line that you presumably pulled from the full article:
The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak
(Low confidence that it's 'plausible' <> 'most likely did happen')
malchior wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:32 am And then you have the National Security Advisor throwing out that they don't have agreement between agencies. Someone with an agenda leaked this story. Probably for political reasons. Because god knows we need more discord in this country.
Yeah, even the summary mentions that DoE/FBI are in the minority among government agencies.

Anyway, I didn't drop that here to push this narrative. Just thought it was interesting coming from DoE.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by noxiousdog »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/energy-dep ... ak-debate/ <- not paywalled.

Excerpts:
National security adviser Jake Sullivan was asked about the report in an interview with CNN on Sunday, and said President Biden "specifically requested" that the National Labs be brought into the assessment "because he wants to put every tool at use to be able to figure out what happened here."

A highly anticipated intelligence inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, ordered by President Biden and released in 2021, was largely inconclusive. The intelligence community "remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19. All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident," the brief summary stated.

An expert group from the World Health Organization said last year that "key pieces of data" to explain how the pandemic began were still missing. The agency recently shuttered a new phase of its scientific investigation over a lack of cooperation from the Chinese government."
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Ultimately, does it matter? And I don't mean that in a facetious way - I'm asking if:

1. Does it make our approach to dealing with it any different?
2. Would it ever result in any punitive or compensative measures being put on China?
3. Assuming China already knows if it was or wasn't a leak from their labs, would it take the knowledge that this was absolutely a leak from a lab to change how we do things with our own labs in the US or abroad?

I assume that the answers are: No, No, and No. But again, I wasn't being facetious - and perhaps I'm not right about those "No"s

I suppose there is another question...

If we knew this was a lab leak from China, would that create enough worldwide pressure to stop this type of lab work across the globe?

I think that's a 'No', too.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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It matters only because it sways public opinion toward certain political platforms.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Unagi »

Blackhawk wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:04 am It matters only because it sways public opinion toward certain political platforms.
Yeah, that's clear to me. That's perhaps my hidden point. But that point is only revealed if my assumptions above are true. And I think making that conclusion without clearing up those points would be facetious of me.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Presumably if it was a lab leak, there would be additional information on the virus to be gotten from the leaking lab.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by noxiousdog »

It also matters in our political dealings with China, and whether there should be international pressure to have oversight on their lab(s) similar to the way we oversee nuclear programs.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

This story is most relevant to the continuing attack on our democracy. A lot of very bad actors want people to question our government capacity/capabilities and further erode trust. Though it can hardly can get worse than it is. That's why I suspect the conclusions from this report were leaked.

We also don't live in a world where we are likely to find out on a short time line whether any lab accident happened if it did or did not happen. The Chinese are as far as the public can tell is relatively resistant to intelligence agency information gathering efforts.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, the GOP and their agents believe so strongly that we're under attack by Chinese bioweapons that they...don't get vaccinated, wear masks or push for changes to protect indoor air. Totally makes sense.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:54 pm Yes, the GOP and their agents believe so strongly that we're under attack by Chinese bioweapons that they...don't get vaccinated, wear masks or push for changes to protect indoor air. Totally makes sense.
I was going to mention the disconnect between Chinese developed bioweapons and a complete refusal to protect themselves from said bioweapons, but at this point, why bother?
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Unagi »

GreenGoo wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:46 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:54 pm Yes, the GOP and their agents believe so strongly that we're under attack by Chinese bioweapons that they...don't get vaccinated, wear masks or push for changes to protect indoor air. Totally makes sense.
I was going to mention the disconnect between Chinese developed bioweapons and a complete refusal to protect themselves from said bioweapons, but at this point, why bother?
Well, maybe we can use this to understand them. We can see why they are so consumed by the idea because they know how vulnerable they are because they are incapable of donning a mask.


Or I wonder... Is it more like: it's easy to believe in sea monsters if you refuse to ever go near the water...
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by El Guapo »

GreenGoo wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:46 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:54 pm Yes, the GOP and their agents believe so strongly that we're under attack by Chinese bioweapons that they...don't get vaccinated, wear masks or push for changes to protect indoor air. Totally makes sense.
I was going to mention the disconnect between Chinese developed bioweapons and a complete refusal to protect themselves from said bioweapons, but at this point, why bother?
A lab leak wouldn't imply that covid was a bioweapon (would be a pretty bad bioweapon honestly) - I believe the main lab leak theory is a leak from a civilian lab that was studying that category of viruses.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:54 pm Yes, the GOP and their agents believe so strongly that we're under attack by Chinese bioweapons that they...don't get vaccinated, wear masks or push for changes to protect indoor air. Totally makes sense.
As much sense as the DoE being a reliable source for investigative foreign actions, unless I’m missing something about their role. Wtf man. But what does the DoT think?! Or Housing and Urban Development? I refuse to form an opinion until the office of the Architect of the Capitol weighs in on the matter.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Zaxxon »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:19 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:54 pm Yes, the GOP and their agents believe so strongly that we're under attack by Chinese bioweapons that they...don't get vaccinated, wear masks or push for changes to protect indoor air. Totally makes sense.
As much sense as the DoE being a reliable source for investigative foreign actions, unless I’m missing something about their role. Wtf man. But what does the DoT think?! Or Housing and Urban Development? I refuse to form an opinion until the office of the Architect of the Capitol weighs in on the matter.
From the original WSJ article today:
The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees a network of U.S. national laboratories, some of which conduct advanced biological research.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Carpet_pissr »

“some of which conduct advanced biological research.”

Maybe that’s the bigger story here.
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

I kind of made the same joke off-line but still DoE does have an intelligence gathering service described as such:
The Office protects vital national security information and technologies, representing intellectual property of incalculable value. Our distinctive contribution to national security is the ability to leverage the Energy Department’s unmatched scientific and technological expertise in support of policymakers as well as national security missions in defense, homeland security, cyber security, intelligence, and energy security.
Also, DoE runs national laboratories here and is partially responsible for protecting the nuclear stockpile. It's not 100% crazy.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by El Guapo »

Basically the kind of evidence that would elevate the odds of a lab leak origin would be things along the lines of: (1) a credible individual at or connected to the lab indicating that there was discussion of a lab leak / attempts to cover it up / etc. around the time of covid's origin; or (2) some other indications of very unusual activity at a relevant lab around that time. DoE seems like an agency you'd want to connect with to find out if there's any evidence of either.

Seems to be a fair amount of disagreement as to what DoE's report actually said here, though, which obviously matters.
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Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Isgrimnur »

DoE Biological and Environmental Research
BER supports three DOE Office of Science user facilities, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), and Joint Genome Institute (JGI). These facilities house unique world-class scientific instruments and capabilities that are available to the entire research community on a competitive, peer review basis. Additionally, four DOE Bioenergy Research Centers were established to pursue innovative early-stage research on bio-based products, clean energy, and next-generation bioenergy technologies.
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