SCOTUS Watch

[Carpet_pissr]

Is that illegal?

No. It's highly unethical and erodes any confidence in the court but it's not illegal.

At some point before the actual Fall of Our Democracy, I’m going to start questioning the wisdom of a system that seems to rely quite a bit on norms, winks and nods to keep shit running well.

[Blackhawk]

Is that illegal?

il·le·gal
/i(l)ˈlēɡəl/
adjective
adjective: illegal

contrary to or forbidden by law, especially criminal law.

Who is the law?

Spoiler:

[malchior]

Is that illegal?

No. It's highly unethical and erodes any confidence in the court but it's not illegal.

At some point before the actual Fall of Our Democracy, I’m going to start questioning the wisdom of a system that seems to rely quite a bit on norms, winks and nods to keep shit running well.

FWIW I don't think this was the problem. A lot of other democracies (most probably) rely on norms as well. Our root cause problem was the Presidential system imbued in a fatally flawed Constitution. It is supposed to be our pride and joy it looks like it was far too rigid and too hard to amend. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight It seem likely that eventually some reactionary force was going to show up, wrap themselves in it, smother our politics with it, and just take over eventually.

In any case, that is why I mentioned a code of ethics. The majority of the judiciary is under a code of ethics but for bad constitution reasons somehow the Supreme Court doesn't have one. And as we now see this court has at least the appearance of some serious ethical issues only curable with impeachment. Which again has way too high a bar.

[Smoove_B]

I guess this goes here?

Sen. Whitehouse grills Director Wray's about how the FBI handled its sham investigation into Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation process

Related to this from 2021:

The FBI is facing new scrutiny for its 2018 background check of Brett Kavanaugh, the supreme court justice, after a lawmaker suggested that the investigation may have been “fake”.

Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democratic senator and former prosecutor who serves on the judiciary committee, is calling on the newly-confirmed attorney general, Merrick Garland, to help facilitate “proper oversight” by the Senate into questions about how thoroughly the FBI investigated Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearing.

The supreme court justice was accused of sexual assault by Christine Blasey Ford and faced several other allegations of misconduct following Ford’s harrowing testimony of an alleged assault when she and Kavanaugh were in high school.

Kavanaugh denied the claims.

[malchior]

I found Wray's answer fascinating. 4 years later and a Senator is still chasing Wray around to get basic answers? That is how this system works now to avoid accountability. Delay, delay, delay until the problem goes away. Worse the explanation now is pretty transparently that the WH used the FBI to crowdsource information so they could defend his nomination. There was no effort to get to the bottom of any disqualifying information.

More the FBI told the Senate nothing substantive came up in the background investigation. It isn't too far from lying by omission. The American people have good reason to not trust the government. Over and over we see evidence multiple agencies aren't trustworthy.

[Smoove_B]

Totally legit.

Wray confirms: Kavanaugh tips from tip line were sent to Trump White House without investigation; and Trump White House directed what witnesses FBI would interview.

[LordMortis]

Totally legit.

Wray confirms: Kavanaugh tips from tip line were sent to Trump White House without investigation; and Trump White House directed what witnesses FBI would interview.

How is that alone not enough to topple everything about the previous presidency. And yet here we are.

[malchior]

Because nothing matters. Public service is now a cynical game of what can I get away with to line my own pockets. And the oversight from the voters is, "What's the price of gas? And stop the groomers". We are a shit hole nation.

[gbasden]

Because nothing matters. Public service is now a cynical game of what can I get away with to line my own pockets. And the oversight from the voters is, "What's the price of gas? And stop the groomers". We are a shit hole nation.

Yep, this. And owning the libs is the most important criteria for voters of one party.

[malchior]

I know a lot of folks probably don't have access to the economist but this audio interview with Georgia State University professor Eric Segall was really illuminating - The Economist

I'll sum it up a little but it won't do it justice. Essentially he argues that the Supreme Court is a broken institution since 1857 (Dred Scott). The argument is that the founding father's foresaw a lot of this and believed the Supreme Court should only take 'limited and modest review' of the law. Otherwise, they are just lifetime government officials with almost no oversight that would have too much power. An interesting viewpoint that I need to mull over.

He however went on to contextualize the last term as radical and far outside the political mainstream. He further went on to talk about what will likely happen this turn. For example, Affirmative action is almost certainly going to be made illegal. He also predicts that institutions all over the country are going to effectively ignore that. He pointed out that Michigan and California had voter initiatives that made AA illegal there and the schools effectively ignored that. It was unsaid but he specifically talked about who would ignore it. My take is that there is an inference by omission that in the South/Central United States we'll see rampant race based discrimination. Ugly stuff.

However, he talked through Moore v. Harper which is the independent state legislature case. The discussion led him to say he thought it was pretty clear that Trump would have been returned to power if SCOTUS had ruled for Moore prior to 2020. He doesn't give a definitive prediction about how it'll turn out. However, he said that he thinks the outcome will hinge on the political situation. In essence he said that it comes down to whether Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch want Trump back in power. I hadn't thought about it but it makes sense. It's a dire thought. Those three people hold our democracy in their hands. He thinks they probably don't want Trump and their votes will depend on whether Trump is in the picture or not.

Still, we're in deep fucking shit. It's pretty clear that our democracy is pretty much circling the drain. We're incredibly close to the end and most people don't even know it.

Edit: To expand the dilemma we face if our democracy survives, he argues that what ends up happening is that the justices end up effectively imposing their personal values on the country. In this case, we have 6 extremely religious, conservatives (5 of which are HARD-RIGHT) on the court so he expects that rights that balance religious preferences will almost always win. He thinks that gay rights are going to be dealt blow after blow for the foreseeable future. What he doesn't talk about is what that'll do to our politics which I imagine is going to lead to more internal pressure in a system constantly on the verge of blowing up. It's grim. Keep preparing folks.

[The Meal]

Thank you for giving us a summary (and not just firing a link to a Twitter thread).

I have a naive view of why the Supreme Court as constructed is broken. It comes down to a luck of the draw as to which party is in power (and by how much) as to how each of a very limited number of components are determined, and without much in the way of checks and balances on such a “lucky” determination of constituency, the Court can end up very out of step politically with mainstream desires.

I like some of the pack-the-courts options, but I don’t see nearly the political capital available to liberals for there to be anywhere close to seeing this executed.

[Pyperkub]

Thank you for giving us a summary (and not just firing a link to a Twitter thread).

I have a naive view of why the Supreme Court as constructed is broken. It comes down to a luck of the draw as to which party is in power (and by how much) as to how each of a very limited number of components are determined, and without much in the way of checks and balances on such a “lucky” determination of constituency, the Court can end up very out of step politically with mainstream desires.

I like some of the pack-the-courts options, but I don’t see nearly the political capital available to liberals for there to be anywhere close to seeing this executed.

For how it is broken *now*, which is still all about one party which does not like most constitutional values.

I do think that the way to fix this is to expand the court. A LOT. It doesn't even need to be a "pack" the court method.

Make it something like 27 justices, and this issue probably goes away.

Probably, because it is hard to predict just how batshit crazy the conservatives will go.

[malchior]

I favor expanding the court and rotate the cases between random groupings. That at least takes some of the state level gamesmanship out of the situation.

Professor Segall referenced above favors letting the next seat stay empty, reduce it to 8 (or even number of seats) and keep it 50/50 thinking it'd drive consensus. I think there are some real problems with the approach but it's an idea. It does seem that this court is pretty radical and if they keep it up they'll be flirting with danger.

[Carpet_pissr]

Keep preparing folks.

You keep saying this.

For what? How?
The End?
Wave our arms in the air and scream?

[Octavious]

Ya aside from fleeing to another country there isn't much I can do. No other country wants me.

[El Guapo]

Part of the problem is with the broken aspects of our non-judicial systems. E.g., multiple justices appointed by presidents who failed to win the popular vote, and confirmed by a Senate that poorly reflects popular will.

[Kraken]

Bear in mind that if McConnell hadn't stolen Garland's seat and RBG had retired when it was prudent, liberals would have a 5-4 majority now. The only thing "broken" there is McC...and IDK what could have been done about that.

[malchior]

Keep preparing folks.

You keep saying this.

For what? How?
The End?
Wave our arms in the air and scream?

For me - I'm in a good spot because I've been preparing for ahile. It is now 90% finalizing on getting my financial house in order. I am only taking on debt I can pay off immediately now.

In general, preparing to me is low/manageable debt, ability to weather domestic unrest for some period of time (being ready for the suggested two weeks for emergencies is a good start), and in the worst case I do have the outline of break glass plan to emigrate. Countries that have problems like ours have gotten very bad, very quick. I think that's low chance but it's too high IMO to wing it.

Edit: Because my financial house is mostly set I am also into some "stretch goals". I am a camping enthusiast so I have a lot of gear that is mostly recreationally focused but has a dual use for emergency/survival preparedness. I have a relatively robust 500W off-grid system built that I use to keep a stocked outdoor poolside gazebo. In fact, a 2nd 12V/24V fridge/freezer is arriving today. I'm hardly at build an off-grid compound levels but I truly believe we have a lot of excess risk. More than I think people recognize.

Ya aside from fleeing to another country there isn't much I can do. No other country wants me.

Ireland "only" requires a $500K investment for an immigration status there.

[malchior]

Part of the problem is with the broken aspects of our non-judicial systems. E.g., multiple justices appointed by presidents who failed to win the popular vote, and confirmed by a Senate that poorly reflects popular will.

The argument that Segall makes is pretty compelling that the Supreme Court was probably always unwisely designed. We might individually like aspects of what the Warren court did. Brown/Miranda/etc. come to mind but he argues it was all outside what was envisioned. He actually called out 'One person, one vote' as a Warren era series of decisions that is accepted nowadays but has no grounding in constitutional text. I haven't thought it all through and I'm not entirely sold but it makes sense. It also is what make the Supreme Court such a prize. It's an unreviewable star chamber that impacts everyone and is generally obeyed. And like times in the past the limits are about to be tested.

[El Guapo]

Part of the problem is with the broken aspects of our non-judicial systems. E.g., multiple justices appointed by presidents who failed to win the popular vote, and confirmed by a Senate that poorly reflects popular will.

The argument that Segall makes is pretty compelling that the Supreme Court was probably always unwisely designed. We might individually like aspects of what the Warren court did. Brown/Miranda/etc. come to mind but he argues it was all outside what was envisioned. He actually called out 'One person, one vote' as a Warren era series of decisions that is accepted nowadays but has no grounding in constitutional text. I haven't thought it all through and I'm not entirely sold but it makes sense. It also is what make the Supreme Court such a prize. It's an unreviewable star chamber that impacts everyone and is generally obeyed. And like times in the past the limits are about to be tested.

Yeah I'm not saying that's the whole problem, but it is part of why the SCOTUS is so far out of the political mainstream at the moment. If the person who got the most votes became president (imagine that!) then we wouldn't have six far right radicals ready to remake the country according to their will.

That said, part of it is structural with the court. Lifetime appointments in particular is something that works well only as long as behavioral norms are observed. Otherwise we're eventually going to have 25 year old Heritage Foundation partisans getting appointed to the court.

I will say that the suggestion to have an even number of justices with the idea that this will encourage cooperation makes me doubt how practical or savvy his other suggestions are. Ask the FEC how well that works in an era of hyper-partisanship.

[malchior]

I will say that the suggestion to have an even number of justices with the idea that this will encourage cooperation makes me doubt how practical or savvy his other suggestions are. Ask the FEC how well that works in an era of hyper-partisanship.

The rest of the arguments were sharp. That one wasn't. I immediately thought up what I feel is a major problem with the idea. Most circuits are highly politicized now (the 5th and 9th stand out in this regard). What'd probably happen is instead of reaching consensus they'd just do nothing and let the circuit decision stand fragmenting law regionally in the country. I'm guessing this occurred to him too and he has a defense but my experience outside the FEC is that organizations with 50/50 leadership end up deadlocked all the time.

[LawBeefaroni]

Well, stick a fork in us....

A Chicago businessman, who keeps a very low profile, has made the largest reported donation ever given to a political nonprofit, with the total amount far-exceeding $1 billion.

Barre Seid, 90, just quietly donated $1.6 billion to a group led by the man that many credit with helping to populate the Supreme Court with nominees during the administration of former President Donald Trump.

...

The money went to Marble Freedom, a conservative nonprofit run by Leonard Leo, who also co-chairs the Federalist Society.

What makes such a move unusual is that Seid has essentially served as a kingmaker for Leo, making him “one of the most powerful people” in national politics.

“The unprecedented part about this is that he gave it to one guy,” EJ Fagan, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, says. “He didn’t donate to a foundation whose board is going to dole it out like a foundation does. Leonard Leo is going to be the one of the most powerful people in politics.”

[malchior]

So...the federalist society essentially owns Tripp Lite now? It's a weird world. This goes well beyond the Supreme Court. Federalist society also partially manages all the test cases that are being funneled very naturally to SCOTUS for radical redefinition of our society. Maybe I better start getting $500K together.

[LawBeefaroni]

So...the federalist society essentially owns Tripp Lite now? It's a weird world. This goes well beyond the Supreme Court. Federalist society also partially manages all the test cases that are being funneled very naturally to SCOTUS for radical redefinition of our society. Maybe I better start getting $500K together.

They already sold it to Eaton. It was a tax maneuver from what I understand. This all went down last year I think.

[Carpet_pissr]

Keep preparing folks.

You keep saying this.

For what? How?
The End?
Wave our arms in the air and scream?

For me - I'm in a good spot because I've been preparing for ahile. It is now 90% finalizing on getting my financial house in order. I am only taking on debt I can pay off immediately now.

In general, preparing to me is low/manageable debt, ability to weather domestic unrest for some period of time (being ready for the suggested two weeks for emergencies is a good start), and in the worst case I do have the outline of break glass plan to emigrate. Countries that have problems like ours have gotten very bad, very quick. I think that's low chance but it's too high IMO to wing it.

Edit: Because my financial house is mostly set I am also into some "stretch goals". I am a camping enthusiast so I have a lot of gear that is mostly recreationally focused but has a dual use for emergency/survival preparedness. I have a relatively robust 500W off-grid system built that I use to keep a stocked outdoor poolside gazebo. In fact, a 2nd 12V/24V fridge/freezer is arriving today. I'm hardly at build an off-grid compound levels but I truly believe we have a lot of excess risk. More than I think people recognize.

Ya aside from fleeing to another country there isn't much I can do. No other country wants me.

Ireland "only" requires a $500K investment for an immigration status there.

So you’re a legit ‘prepper’?

I assume you have gone to cash completely and hold no investments? If things are as imminently dire (and I’m not arguing they are not) as you say, then it would be crazy to have anything in a bank, and certainly no holdings in a brokerage account.

[malchior]

So...the federalist society essentially owns Tripp Lite now? It's a weird world. This goes well beyond the Supreme Court. Federalist society also partially manages all the test cases that are being funneled very naturally to SCOTUS for radical redefinition of our society. Maybe I better start getting $500K together.

They already sold it to Eaton. It was a tax maneuver from what I understand. This all went down last year I think.

Ok that tracks. That article has some serious clarity issues then

Seid has run the company Tripp Lite in Chicago’s Bridgeport neighborhood for more than 50 years. The company makes surge protectors and other data centered equipment.

Recently, Seid gave all of the company’s stock, worth $1.6 billion, to a political advocacy group.

The money went to Marble Freedom, a conservative nonprofit run by Leonard Leo, who also co-chairs the Federalist Society.

[malchior]

So you’re a legit ‘prepper’?

Not even close! Lol.

I assume you have gone to cash completely and hold no investments? If things are as imminently dire (and I’m not arguing they are not) as you say, then it would be crazy to have anything in a bank, and certainly no holdings in a brokerage account.

No! Again not even close. This is pretty far off the mark. It's more just good financial management. I just bought a solar system for instance. It technically is a 25-year term loan. My plan is to pay it in 2 years but I could pay it today if I wanted. At that point, I might add on batteries (especially with the new tasty 30% tax credit) and have some grid independence. It's all stepwise stuff - making choices that make sense in general but up preparedness for bad shit.

I am not burying gold bars in the backyard. I have a standard growth allocation in my portfolios. I do however prioritize preserving cash when I can but that's just generally a good idea. For instance, my camping 12V freezer was purchased on a 6-month paypal. Again I could have bought it in cash but it's all cash basis "envelope" style YNAB budgeting.

In any case, it's not prepping by any definition other than general preparing. I don't have 2 years of food in my basement. I don't have a horde of weapons or even a fortified house. It just means I have a plan if shit goes bad. Which is just a good idea in life anyway. That's why I say 'Keep preparing'. Edit: As an aside, this is my wheelhouse I wrote the crisis management plan and cyber incident response process for a fortune 5 company. A plan for bad things is just part of being responsible.

[gbasden]

At that point, I might add on batteries (especially with the new tasty 30% tax credit) and have some grid independence.

Sorry for the derail, but I hadn't heard of this. I've got solar installed and have been thinking about batteries for awhile. Have you done any research or have any recommendations?

[Carpet_pissr]

Ok, agree to disagree about the implications of multiple ‘keep preparing, folks!’ after multiple lengthy, reasoned posts about the end the world as we know it.

[malchior]

At that point, I might add on batteries (especially with the new tasty 30% tax credit) and have some grid independence.

Sorry for the derail, but I hadn't heard of this. I've got solar installed and have been thinking about batteries for awhile. Have you done any research or have any recommendations?

I know quite a bit about batteries now. There are lots of variables. It is complex and usually requires a redesign of the system so whoever installed the solar is usually the best next resource. I'd say though that the prices for batteries are too high at the moment even with the new credit. 1-2 year is probably a good timeline to think about it.

[gbasden]

At that point, I might add on batteries (especially with the new tasty 30% tax credit) and have some grid independence.

Sorry for the derail, but I hadn't heard of this. I've got solar installed and have been thinking about batteries for awhile. Have you done any research or have any recommendations?

I know quite a bit about batteries now. There are lots of variables. It is complex and usually requires a redesign of the system so whoever installed the solar is usually the best next resource. I'd say though that the prices for batteries are too high at the moment even with the new credit. 1-2 year is probably a good timeline to think about it.

Got it. Thanks!

[malchior]

Ok, agree to disagree about the implications of multiple ‘keep preparing, folks!’ after multiple lengthy, reasoned posts about the end the world as we know it.

It's just my philosophy. My book of business is almost entirely companies that just got beat up badly by ransomware. I do sales calls with many businesses and pre-incident I'd say we close 5%. Post-incident it's close to 100%. It's ridiculous but that's human nature. I'm saying it because people should be prepared. Even if just for natural disasters nowadays. So I naturally pair risk assessment with what you should be doing. And it doesn't involve burying any gold bars in the backyard. I do think it's debatable if everyone should have 28 gallons of water per person stored somewhere though.

[Octavious]

My thing is that if shit has gotten that bad do I want to survive? I'd rather go out in the first wave. I wouldn't have made it past episode 1 of The Walking Dead.

[malchior]

My thing is that if shit has gotten that bad do I want to survive? I'd rather go out in the first wave. I wouldn't have made it past episode 1 of The Walking Dead.

I sort of just expect you guys to show up.

[Octavious]

My thing is that if shit has gotten that bad do I want to survive? I'd rather go out in the first wave. I wouldn't have made it past episode 1 of The Walking Dead.

I sort of just expect you guys to show up.

LOL like the time when Sandy came through and I could barely find enough gas to get to your house? I'm always prepared!

[malchior]

My thing is that if shit has gotten that bad do I want to survive? I'd rather go out in the first wave. I wouldn't have made it past episode 1 of The Walking Dead.

I sort of just expect you guys to show up.

LOL like the time when Sandy came through and I could barely find enough gas to get to your house. I'm always prepared!

See that's where the electric car comes in. I'm always ahead of the game!

For fun and this is my last way off topic post on this - here is part of the very serious prepping going on. The 100% off-grid solar powered gazebo man cave

[LawBeefaroni]

So...the federalist society essentially owns Tripp Lite now? It's a weird world. This goes well beyond the Supreme Court. Federalist society also partially manages all the test cases that are being funneled very naturally to SCOTUS for radical redefinition of our society. Maybe I better start getting $500K together.

They already sold it to Eaton. It was a tax maneuver from what I understand. This all went down last year I think.

Ok that tracks. That article has some serious clarity issues then

Seid has run the company Tripp Lite in Chicago’s Bridgeport neighborhood for more than 50 years. The company makes surge protectors and other data centered equipment.

Recently, Seid gave all of the company’s stock, worth $1.6 billion, to a political advocacy group.

The money went to Marble Freedom, a conservative nonprofit run by Leonard Leo, who also co-chairs the Federalist Society.

The way I understand it, he gave the stock to the non-profit (no taxes) who then sold it to Eaton (no taxes) last year. That way he was able to give the non-profit the full $1.6B.

[malchior]

(no taxes)

Of course.

[Isgrimnur]

Ya aside from fleeing to another country there isn't much I can do. No other country wants me.

We can't convince you to leave your crappy job or your crappy state. Getting you to leave the country would be impossible.

[Zarathud]

So...the federalist society essentially owns Tripp Lite now? It's a weird world. This goes well beyond the Supreme Court. Federalist society also partially manages all the test cases that are being funneled very naturally to SCOTUS for radical redefinition of our society. Maybe I better start getting $500K together.

They already sold it to Eaton. It was a tax maneuver from what I understand. This all went down last year I think.

Ok that tracks. That article has some serious clarity issues then

Seid has run the company Tripp Lite in Chicago’s Bridgeport neighborhood for more than 50 years. The company makes surge protectors and other data centered equipment.

Recently, Seid gave all of the company’s stock, worth $1.6 billion, to a political advocacy group.

The money went to Marble Freedom, a conservative nonprofit run by Leonard Leo, who also co-chairs the Federalist Society.

The way I understand it, he gave the stock to the non-profit (no taxes) who then sold it to Eaton (no taxes) last year. That way he was able to give the non-profit the full $1.6B.

That little loophole can be blamed on:
1. The Tea Party complaints Obama was looking into 501c4 PACs, which resulted in a ruling gifts to PACs aren’t taxable.
2. Newman’s Own Foundation which was violating a rule about non-profits running operating businesses and would have to sell. The tax law was changed to allow operating businesses to be owned by charity.
So the tax shelter is give your operating business to a PAC, which pretends to be a charity. No gift to you. No income tax when the PAC sells the business.